technology trends in the...

© 2013 IBM Corporation Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation

Technology Trends in the Future

Dougal Watt, Chief Technologist, IBM NZ

Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation

Technology Trends

2

The evolution of technology trends

● Why technology trends matter

● How IBM assesses technology trends - the IBM Global Technology Outlook

● Overview of the trends since 2008

● Implications for society, economy and environment


Technology Trends

3

The importance of technology trends 'Triple bottom line' view

Social view Is the trend net positive or negative? What changes will it require in education provision?; what employment opportunities does it open up?; how does it change the democratic structure of society (e.g. privacy implications)?

Economic view How will it change our economies?; where will value shift? What skills will be required?

Environmental view Will it cause more environmental problems?; does it enable better environmental management?; does it lower resource usage?


Technology Trends

4


The mobility revolution

- release of iPhone in 2007

- disruptive innovation at work

Nokia - worlds most successful Mobile Phone company with 40% market share by sales

selection of >220 models available 2007

Apple – worlds most successful Mac and iPod company iPhone portfolio – 1 model


Technology Trends

5


The result - radical change in market values


Technology Trends

6


Social view Education provision through mobility; creation of new job categories; democratisation of computing (iPad); evolving trend towards wearable computing threatens privacy (Glass etc)

Economic view Radical shift in: market share; corporate valuation; evolution of online app provision (app store); creation of new markets ($8 billion in developer AppStore income); total disruption of consumer and business IT marketplace; undermining IT department control

Environmental view E-waste considerable problem; mining of rare earth elements very destructive (e.g. tin mines); enable whole new classes of solutions e.g. smartphone river condition monitoring


Technology Trends

7

How IBM assesses technology trends The IBM Global Technology Outlook (GTO)

The GTO identifies significant technology trends and identifies high-impact disruptive technologies leading to game-changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon.

Technology thresholds identified in a GTO influence clients, enterprises, and industries, and have high potential to create new businesses – they are business driven.

Produced by IBM Research division.


Technology Trends

8

IBM Research Globalization

IBM Research Labs

China

Watson Almaden

Austin

Tokyo Zurich

India

Dublin

Australia

Brazil Next Generation Public Sector Water & Transportation Human Capacity Development

Natural Resources Disaster Management Healthcare & Life Sciences

Natural Resources Smarter Devices Human Systems/Events

Industry Solutions

Accessibility

Internet of Things Smarter Cities

Big Data & Analytics

HW & SW Quality

Cloud, Mobile

Haifa

Smarter Cities

Services Mobile

Communications

Semiconductors Systems Software &

Services Big Data &

Analytics

Semiconductors Processors

Big Data & Analytics

Storage Nanotech

Healthcare

Science Nanotech

Materials

Africa


Technology Trends

9

Overview of the trends 2008 research findings

Real-World Aware

MAKING SENSE OF A COMPLEX WORLD ... IN REAL TIME


Technology Trends

10


Enterprise Mobile - convergence of mobile broadband and smart phones

Community- and Information-Centric Web Platforms - ecosystem development around web platforms (e.g. salesforce.com), highly focused on data/information centricity and sharing

Internet-Scale Datacenter - highly integrated, purpose built, efficient

Technology, Systems and Software - evolving technologies to bridge gap between current semiconductor computing and future approaches (e.g. nanotech, quantum computing)


Technology Trends

11


Digital Economy Dynamic Value Creation Valuation, Transparency, Risk

Direct Trade of Resources (Carbon)

Data to Smart Decisions Decision Support From data deluge to

insights to decisions Monitor, Analyze &

Development

Cloud Emerging Services & Infrastructure Efficiency

Continuous Monitoring & Real Time Analysis

Zero-Emissions Data Center

Services Quality

Security

Transformation Systems Hybrid Systems Streaming applications Complex Systems

Modeling & Analysis

Fine-grained, Risk-adjusted security

Dynamic Infrastructure Intelligence/Analytics Green & Beyond

Measurable quality for emerging, dynamic services

G T O T o p i c s


Technology Trends

12


Analytics & Optimization

Industry Transformation

Software & Services

System & Infrastructure

Globalization and Economic Downturn Healthcare Debate and Stimulus Money

Explosive Growth of Wireless Traffic Cost/Power/Performance/Time-to-Value

System of Systems Explosion in Digitizing the World Need for Accurate and Trusted Models

Rigidity of Packaged Applications Integration Remains the Key Strategic Priority Early Adoption of Cloud Computing Delivery Models


Technology Trends

13


1.Enabling Technologies for Healthcare Transformation

Evidence-centric medicine, payment-for-outcomes

1.Workload Optimized Systems HW, SW co-design, integration, optimization

1.Orchestrating the Smarter Planet Models and model orchestration enable

integrated operation and optimization

1.Software Technology Trends New development models, tools and methods transforming

the SW industry

1.Future of Legacy Tools & services to “Identify, Improve and Operate” legacy

1.Convergence of IT and Wireless Infrastructure IT enabled wireless infrastructure optimizations

Analytics & Optimization

Industry Transformation

Software & Services

System & Infrastructure


Technology Trends

14


Internet of Things Natural Resources Transformation and Management

Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions

Petascale Analytics, Appliances & Ecosystem

Frontiers of IT

Services Implications

2011 Major

Initiatives

Analytics

Smarter Planet

Workload- Optimized Systems

Services

New GTO Topics


Technology Trends

15


Internet of Things - common customer pain points

Lack of capability to design, implement, deploy, operate and manage complex IoT systems Lack of situation awareness leading to unacceptable responsiveness and resilience Requirement of end-to-end security

Food Safety Water Management Grid

Transportation Home Healthcare Logistics


Technology Trends

16


An industry >$7 trillion and growing rapidly

Increasing Costs and Restrictions

Public Focus on HSE Regulatory and Reporting Workforce Issues

Difficulty Finding and Extracting New Sources

Dig/drill deeper Developing harsh/remote areas Complexity of exploration Non-traditional sources

Increasing Global Demand

Global economic growth Exploding middle class in

China and India

Activity, reserves, & investment focused in the GMU

Natural resources


Technology Trends

17


Training and Learning Engines To Build Models and Define Insight

Hypothesis Engines To Understand and Plan Actions

Policy Engine Business, Legal

and Ethical Rules

Verification Engines (e.g. Simulations)

Active Learning

(Natural Interfaces)

Outcome Engine Actuation and Validation

Society Nature Institutions Archives

Frontiers of IT: Programming and Data transform to Learning and Intelligence


Technology Trends

18


Up to 10,000 Times larger

Up to 10,000 times faster

Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence

Dat

a Sc

ale

Dat

a Sc

ale

yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs

Exa

Peta

Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

Decision Frequency Occasional Frequent Real-time

Data in Motion

Dat

a at

Res

t

Telco Promotions 100,000 records/sec, 6B/day 10 ms/decision 270TB for Deep Analytics

DeepQA 100s GB for Deep Analytics 3 sec/decision

Smart Traffic 250K GPS probes/sec 630K segments/sec 2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles

Homeland Security 600,000 records/sec, 50B/day 1-2 ms/decision 320TB for Deep Analytics

New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics


Technology Trends

19


Managing Uncertain Data at Scale

Future of

Analytics

The Future Watson

Systems of People

Outcome Based Business

Resilient Business and Services

Uncertain data and analytics are major themes


Technology Trends

20


Trend: Most of the world’s analyzed data will be uncertain

By 2015, 80% of the world’s data will be uncertain

Uncertain data management requires new techniques

These techniques are necessary for real-world Big Data Analytics

Opportunity: Business leadership using Big Data Analytics

Robust, business-aware uncertain data management

Use analytics over uncertain web, sensor, and human-generated data

Enable good business decisions by understanding analysis confidence

Challenge: Taking Big Data Analytics into an uncertain world

Analysis of text is highly nuanced; sensor-based data is imprecise

Timely business decisions require efficient large-scale analytics

It is more difficult to obtain insight about an individual than a group, especially if the source data is uncertain

Uncertain data


Technology Trends

21


Glo

bal D

ata

Volu

me

in E

xaby

tes

Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10 Agg

rega

te U

ncer

tain

ty %

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2005 2010 2015

By 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain

Data quality solutions exist for enterprise data like customer, product, and address data, but this is only a fraction of the total enterprise data.

By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All sensor data has uncertainty.

The total number of social media accounts exceeds the entire global population. This data is highly uncertain in both its expression and content.

Uncertain data


Technology Trends

22


Industry trends

Value proposition is shifting towards delivering business outcomes

Serious threat of commoditization to traditional models of IT-focused outsourcing and pure IT cost plays

Approach Understand the causal relationships between business outcomes and IT capabilities

Opportunity Lead by focusing on enterprise value tied to business

outcomes

Outcome based business


Technology Trends

23

Overview of the trends 2012 research findings Outcome based business

Reduce IT cost

IT outcomes

Manage IT cost

Increase business revenue Reduce business cost

Business outcomes

Align with enterprise’s business outcomes

Valu

e

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

“From Cost Center to Profit Center”

The transformation of IT from a cost center to a profit center does not happen overnight. It requires a well thought out strategy and implementation. Source: dynamicCIO.com, C R Narayanan, Dec 20, 2011

“IT Value Is Dead. Long Live Business Value.”

Business outcomes from technology investments are all that really matter. The CIO’s challenge is finding new ways to prove IT’s worth. Source: CIO.com, Stephanie Overby, May 12 , 2011

Top 10 Business Priorities 2014

Increasing enterprise growth

Improving Operations

Attracting and retaining new customers

1 2 3

Source: Gartner, 2011 CIO Survey


Technology Trends

24

Implications for society, economy and environment Key trend themes

2008

Real-World Aware – how do we make sense of the world in real time? i.e. data, sensors, decision making

2009

Value creation; data to smart decisions – expands on 2008, adds concept of value

2010

Transformations of industry – especially healthcare, but very hard; digitisation of everything

Analytics and optimisation - integrated operation and optimisation for the smarter planet

Software and services - new development models, tools, methods transforming software industry e.g. semantics - huge trend now - adding context/meaning back into 'data' centric views of technology - will drive large scale value creation


Technology Trends

25

Implications for society, economy and environment Key trend themes

2011

Internet of things & natural resource transformation and management

Starting to see direct intersection of technology addressing Key issues facing our societies - health, environmental management, transportation, water, other resources (mines, petroleum)

Analytics at peta scale, and applied to social and enterprise solutions

First learning systems e.g. Watson

2012

Uncertain data - the 'data scientist'; core disciplines in technology being re-constructed into more holistic information-centric perspectives

Outcome based business - business and IT blending; move from technology centric to business centric enabled by technology; enterprise Architecture will increase in importance


Technology Trends

26

Implications for society, economy and environment 'Triple bottom line' view

Society

- Not directly addressed through these themes, but strong linkage to Environment and Business views

- Lower level technology-centric jobs becoming automated (e.g. server build) – need to move training up the value chain

- Starting to see data and social intersecting, more in workforce performance context

- Huge risk to democracy from proliferation of data, wearable computing, corporate data collection, and government security over-reach. Privacy needs increasing, technology currently lags

- Strong need to shift thinking from tech-centric to holistic view of technology enabling change. Perhaps “technology ethics and context” be taught in parallel with technical curriculum in schools?

- Data/information centric and mathematical skills are becoming very scarce and sought after

- Most successful businesses harness creativity, not rote learning – current 'National Standards' style education systems are totally inadequate for needs of modern society


Technology Trends

27

Implications for society, economy and environment 'Triple bottom line' view

Economy

- Digitisation of business has progressed considerably; technology becoming 'almost commodity' necessary to enable next stage of business transformation...

- Shift to business outcome viewpoint; needs to be embedded in all levels of training – helped by AppStore & cloud economics

- Emergence of 'information economics' – only sustainable source of business value creation / differentiation is now information

- Economic systems have become very complex with limited controls – technology starting to provide means to understand this through big data/analytics

Environment

- Business beginning to see value in environmental management through necessity and early successes

- Vested interests starting to fail in blocking change – driven by shifting economics of renewable energy (gird parity for solar in less than 5 years), fresh water limits

- Technology will play a central role through data and internet of things, but must focus on outcomes

technology trends in the...

Documents