technology trends stefan lindeberg [email protected] +46 708 842445 with a significant amount of...
TRANSCRIPT
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Who am I?
• 17 years in datacom– IBM, NSC, Cisco
• Board member– Xelerated, Hyglo,
Appgate, Comlase, Lumentis, PacketFront, Transmode
• Advisor to:– Wavium, Startupfactory,
European Equity Partner
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Topics
•My views on–Communications Technology–Solutions and Products–Business models
Infobalt 2002-10-21
17 years experience in datacom
If there’s anything I’ve learnt:
KISSKeep It Simple Stupid
(It might actually work)
3270
SNA
Appletalk
APPN
ESCON
IPX Bayan Wines
TCP/IP
Ethernet
Token Ring
FDDIDLSW
MPOA DECNET
OSI X.25
Infobalt 2002-10-21
17 years experience in datacom
ATMLANE
A good wayto avoid C&B’s(Crash and Burn’s)
Infobalt 2002-10-21
The only thing we have learned from history is that we don’t learn from history
Bridging Ethernet’s• Over leased lines• Over ATM (lane)• Over ATM with ½
router (MPOA)• Over IP• Over MPLS
Oops!
CommunicationsTechnology
Trends
Infobalt 2002-10-21
The days of the “miracle boxes”!
A telephone switch with an integrated Internet router, ATM switch, windows NT server, WWW server and which can act as an firewall, load balancer and cook your coffee
Infobalt 2002-10-21
• Financial– Old services becomes
more expensive to produce but no or limited increased revenue
– New service becomes as expensive as the old to produce
• Technical– Jack of all trades,
master of none
The days of the “miracle boxes” are over!
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Filing the dam, more broadband users then ever
Global Broadband Connections
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4
Mil
jon
s
Estimate
64% year over year growth!
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Next wave of growth
• Long haul networks in place• New investments in customer access
equipment, as new customers are signed up
• Drives investments in aggregation and metro equipment
InvestmentsCustomer Aggregation Metro Core
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Aggregation and metro network technologies
1. Metro DWDM• + capacity - cost
2. CWDM• + low cost + outdoor (-) 16 wavelengths
3. Next generation SONET/SDH• + leverage installed base - cost
4. Optical Ethernet• + low cost - enterprise focused products until now
5. Resilient Packet Ring• + resilient – standard not ready
As the capacity in current access networks is exhausted a number of choices exists:
Technology turned into solutions and
products
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Technology and product selection
Technology Services
Cos
tR
even
ue
ProductSelection
Infobalt 2002-10-21
All solutions should solve a problem
• A solution in search of a problem– A great technology, but so what?
• A solution to an old problem– Does it still exist?
• A solution based on erroneous assumptions– For example: humans better than
computers in doing repetitive things
Infobalt 2002-10-21
…with out adding complexity
We have enough tools and technologies that are:
• Too complicated• Too limited• Too partial• Doesn’t solve a
problem
Great way to shoot yourself in the foot!
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Limiting factors
Human understanding
Designing productsCoding softwareDesigning networksOperatingTroubleshootingMaintaining networks
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Getting around the problem
BricksMission specific devices
– Boxes that do ONE thing and does it well
– Boxes we can understand
“Boxed” technologies
Infobalt 2002-10-21
More narrow but yet broader
TodayPlatforms and
services focus on one application, for example 3G wireless.
But the same function or service might be needed in other applications
Infobalt 2002-10-21
More narrow but yet broader
Example:• Location services or “Find
me”• Needed for mobile
telephony and other applications
• Today’s system for mobile telephony only
• Should be for all platforms: PC, PDA’s, terminals, fixed and mobile telephony, Digital TV boxes etc
• Transparent “follow me” services
Infobalt 2002-10-21
More narrow but yet broader
Example:• Secure identification• Needed for electronic
commerce and other applications
• Today’s system built for one platform, PC based e-commerce, GSM terminals
• Should be for all platforms: PC, PDA’s, terminals, Digital TV boxes etc
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Solutions for the future
The solutions for the future has to:
1. Solve a real problem2. Be mission specific
– Solve a well defined problem and do it well
3. Be broader– Solve this problem for multiple
environments i.e. Wireless, fixed, Internet and multiple applications
3G, 4G and so on
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Perceived and marketed 3G drivers
• High bandwidth internet and data access
• Video conferencing
• Music• Watch movies,
video on demand
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Mobile 3G costs per minute*
• Voice 14kbps $0.20• Music MP3 200kbps $3.00• Music DTS 700kbps $10.00• Video VHS 1.5Mbps $22.50• Video DVD 5Mbps $75.00• Video DVD+ 10Mbps $150.00
Two 3 minute songs: $181.5h movie VHS: $2025
*source: Östen Mäkitalo Telia
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Real 3G drivers
What will drive 3G?
• Spectrum efficiency– The available
frequencies is already a scarce resource
• Multimedia messaging– Greetings– Pictures
Infobalt 2002-10-21
IP Based Mobile Terminals
SiSi
Internet
”The Mobile Internet will never be larger than a couple of hundred meters”
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Mobile telephony is an access method to the net
• All content and all services accessible through internet and TCP/IP
• TCP/IP enabled handsets and terminals
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Next generation wireless networks
Wireless device with IP
Service provider
Location servicesSecurity servicesPolicy servicesBilling services
Internet
Other customer access technologiesxDSL, CATV, Ethernet
Wireless router with2.5G, 3G and 802.11x interface
Business Modelsare changing
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Business Models
Still dominating: The “triple play”!
The same organization provides:•Physical infrastructure, cables, ducts etc•Logical infrastructure, switches, routers•Service infrastructure, servers billing sw
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Disintegration is happening in all areas
• Virtual GSM operators– Doesn’t own the physical network
• 3G providers build networks together– 3G licenses and build-out expensive
• IP VPN service providers– Reseller of Internet services– Deliver IP VPN service
• Deregulation continuing– New players, counties, power companies,
construction companies etc
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Broadband services business model
I1 I2 I3 T1 T2 V1
Active, IP network
Physical, cables
Via Europa
Property owners
Telenordia, IP-only, Tiscali, DigiSIP …
$
Hammarbysjöstad
Customers
Infobalt 2002-10-21
New business model has impact on products
• New requirements on products– Multi-operator support– Multiple address domains– Security– Management– OSS interfaces
Infobalt 2002-10-21
Networking Darwinism:Survival of the simple solutions
Simple in this context, is simple enough that humans can understand, because humans still have to design, maintain and operate the network
Conclusion:
Questions?
Comments?
Thank you!
