Ted GordonThe Millennium ProjectWorld Federation of United Nations Associations

Frontiers of Futures ResearchFrontiers of Futures Research

On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on Foresight and StrategyForesight and Strategy

Simon Bolivar University Simon Bolivar University January 25, 2008January 25, 2008

Slide 1

2. The Future Is DynamicTwenty five years ago there was no:

Internet, World Wide Web, cell phones

European Union, World Trade Organization

AIDS, genetic sequencing for drugs

Cloning, robots on Mars

NAFTA, globalization

Asymmetrical warfare

Many believed we would have nuclear WW III

3. Developments to look for in the next twenty five years

Acceleration of science and technology Nano, bio, cogno, info (NBIC) SIMAD Energy: post oil peak transition Understanding, enhancing mental capacity Longevity Power and shifting non-state political actors Universal monitoring: who’s where New moral issues: birth, death, sovereignty

4. S&T Acceleration

Technological synergies Feedback of accomplishments New instrumentation and analysis capacities Globalization

What can slow it?Natural limits (e.g. energy)Catastrophe (e.g. SIMAD)Religion, cultureFear of the unknown

Neurons

Cogno

NBIC

Bio

Info

Cells

5. Technological Convergence:

Nano

Bits

Atoms

Smart machinesTiny robotsSwarm machine

Understanding mind, brainBrain prosthesisTrue AIImproved decisionmaking

Tiny computersSmart chips Eyes and ears everywhereImplantable monitors

An atomic scale general purpose assembly machine could copy itself in a week; a billion in a year (Minsky)

CellsAtoms

6. Feedback of Accomplishments6. Feedback of Accomplishments

Software development today takes 100 GB hard Software development today takes 100 GB hard drive for granteddrive for granted

Essentially free international communicationsEssentially free international communications

The computer industry is now a trillion industry; The computer industry is now a trillion industry; hence more R&D fundshence more R&D funds

Discontinuous breakthroughs that spawn new Discontinuous breakthroughs that spawn new capacities, disciplines (e.g. transistor, DNA capacities, disciplines (e.g. transistor, DNA molecule definition, fission)molecule definition, fission)

International standards Internet Global corporations bringing technology

with them Transnational students Large scale cooperative projects (space

station) Collaboration among scientists,

policymakers, companies R&D leadership in China, India, South Korea

7. Globalization of S&T

Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG

The scanning tunneling microscope Rapid DNA sequencer High energy collision machines Cooperative computers: SETI Internet; at the limit all knowledge available High speeds transfer Massive storage of errorless data Nothing is forgotten Hubble orbital telescope Super-cooled IR orbiting observatory looks through dust

8. New Instrumentation and Analysis Capacities

9. A Brief History of Futures Research

Advisors throughout history

WW II, Futuribles, Air Force studies, RAND, Hudson Institute, USSR Plans, IFF

Consulting firms, academic centers, OTA

The Millennium Project, foresight studies

Current: WFS, WFSF, MP, WAF, Journals, Books

10. Philosophical Assumptions

The future can be shaped by policy

There is a range of possible futures

Policy consequences can be systematically explored

Exact foreknowledge is not possible, but probabilities can be assessed

There is a component of the future that is unknowable

11. Purposes of Futures Research To help understand what could be, what

might be, and what ought to be.

To discover threats and opportunities.

To develop creative strategies

To evaluate proposed actions.

To create and share normative visions

12. Purposes of Futures Research

The value of futures research lies less in its forecasting accuracy, than in its use in identifying and assessing new possibilities

It’s purpose is to inform decisions

13. Bad Decisions Abound

Misinformation; sometimes decision makers lie (Gulf of Tonkin, the U-2 incident)

Uncertainty, risk aversion Faith in low probability favorable outcomes Failure to recognize the need for action Bad luck, chance Selfish interests, amorality, corruption Xenophobia, geographic determinism

14. Non Linear Systems in Chaos14. Non Linear Systems in Chaos

The whole may not be the sum of the partsThe whole may not be the sum of the parts

History is not a safe guide to the futureHistory is not a safe guide to the future

Very small differences bring big changesVery small differences bring big changes

Hidden attractors; self organizationHidden attractors; self organization

If most important systems are chaotic, what If most important systems are chaotic, what does that mean for forecasting?does that mean for forecasting?

15. What Goes Into a Decision?

Three questions: What is possible? What is likely? What is desirable?

Futures research helps with Identifying goals Assessing prospective policies Quantifying risks

Futures research does not help much with Reducing the unknowable Psychological factors Moral and ethical factors

16. A New Decision Science16. A New Decision Science Futures research; foresight; FTAFutures research; foresight; FTA

Intuition, imagination: experience, subtle cluesIntuition, imagination: experience, subtle clues

Psychology; personal utility functionsPsychology; personal utility functions

Balance of risks and rewardsBalance of risks and rewards

Experiments and analogyExperiments and analogy

Understanding innate illogic of human thinkingUnderstanding innate illogic of human thinking

Moral courageMoral courage

Privacy compromised: everyone tracked.

Confusion over what is real

Computers evolve; bio- WMD; new diseases

SIMAD, asymmetrical war, extremism, proliferation

Internet dangers: drug manufacture, etc.

Hunger to do what is right but effective decisions, leadership, and action seem missing

17. Some Dangers on the Horizon

Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG

Diminishing population growth, infant mortality

Control of AIDS, new resources

Improved wealth, education, health, and literacy

An ethic that reveres the future, promotes effective interventions

Global action against common dangers (e.g. SARS)

A new rationality

18. Some Promises on the Horizon

Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG