tekelec diametersignalingindex wp 2012oct

7/29/2019 Tekelec DiameterSignalingIndex WP 2012Oct

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tEKElEc

ltE diamEtEr

Signaling indEx:

taBlE oF contEntS

Executive Summary .....................................................................................2

Signaling Trends and Indicators ...................................................................3

Diameter Signaling Index Forecast ...............................................................4

The Future o Diameter Signaling ................................................................11

Conclusion..................................................................................................12

Annexes ......................................................................................................13

FORECAST REPORT AND ANALYSIS 2011-2016

2012 Tekelec, Inc.


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Signaling inDex:

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ExEcutivE Summary

The industry business executives, network architects, engineers, analysts, and equipment

vendors currently struggles to accurately orecast Diameter signaling trac growth. This

is already impacting LTE network perormance and the customer experience.

To predict and accommodate Diameter signaling growth, service providers need to actor

in subscriber proles and behaviors and the types o services and devices they have and

plan to introduce on their networks. This is a shit or network engineers responsible

or predicting trac and signaling patterns. Data sessions, video downloads, and the

invoking o policy and charging rules each introduces signaling into networks. All

variables need to be considered to accurately predict the impact on Diameter networks.

This rst-o-its kind LTE Diameter Signaling Index serves as a guide or network architects

and engineers building Diameter networks where policy intelligently orchestrates the

subscriber experience and Diameter Signaling conducts communications among policy

servers, charging systems, subscriber databases and mobility management unctions.

As a measure o network intelligence, the Tekelec LTE Diameter Signaling Index is an

important tool or service providers to manage and monetize mobile data.

This Index presents an LTE Diameter trac demand model that enables operators to

more accurately calculate and orecast LTE signaling trac. It gives service providers a

baseline or how dierent services and types o signaling aect Diameter trac growth.

It serves as a reerence point rom which service providers can layer on critical actors

such as network architecture, topology, capacity requirements, geo-redundancy, and

other implementation-specic actors that are needed to architect a robust, reliable and

scalable Diameter Network that can accommodate rapid growth in signaling trac.

In this Diameter Signaling Index, Tekelec technologists and engineers calculate subscriber

behavior averages and the overall growth o Diameter signaling or dierent types

o services over a given period o time. The Index also takes into consideration trac

fows dened by standards bodies to validate the number o Diameter messages

required to support dierent services. Messages per Second (MPS) calculations

consider LTE subscriber growth rom analyst reports and assumptions or mobility

busy hours, subscriber busy hours, concurrent sessions, policy sessions and online and

ofine charging interactions. Tekelec also parses out MPS calculations according to

the sophistication o session types, comparing or example the dierence in Diameter

signaling or a simple data session versus a Voice over LTE (VoLTE) session. Additionally,

dierent Diameter interaces or Mobility Management Entities, Home Subscriber

Servers, Policy and Charging Rules Functions, and Online and Ofine Charging Systems

are actored in to urther enhance the accuracy o the projections. These data points and

assumptions are incorporated into the Tekelec Diameter Signaling Index Calculator,

available or service providers orecasting Diameter signaling on their networks, and soon

available as a mobile app.


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The results compiled in the Diameter Signaling Index conrm that Policy and Online

Charging represent the largest impact on signaling growth, trumping Mobility and Ofine

Charging Systems. The signaling trac analysis reveals that Diameter MPS will reach acompound annual growth rate (CAGR) o 252% between 2011 and 2016, representing

almost 47 million MPS by 2016. To put this nding in perspective, Diameter signaling

trac will grow more than three times as ast as mobile data trac1. This is attributable

to the sophisticated policy requirements in LTE networks such as advanced Quality o

Service (QoS) or voice and video and more personalized data and roaming plans.

Signaling trEndS and indicatorS

Service providers evolving their mobile data business models ace two challenges: oering

data services that are compelling and ensuring that networks can handle the associated

perormance and scalability requirements.

Though much attention has been paid to the pace at which data trac is expected to

grow, this Index demonstrates that Diameter signaling trac increases will signicantly

outpace data trac growth. For this reason, executives, engineers and network architects

are moving Diameter signaling up the priority list.

The growth in signaling trac correlates directly to the sophistication o services and

pricing plans in LTE networks, as the need or more subscriber and service intelligence

triggers more communication among core network elements. Examples o such service

plans include:

Tiered services

Shared data plans

Loyalty programs

Toll-ree or sponsored data usage

Mobile advertising

Quality enhanced over-the-top (OTT) applications

Cloud and machine-to-machine (M2M) services

Rather than risk under-engineering LTE networks, service providers need to consider how

data sessions, video downloads and sophisticated policy and charging rules will aect

signaling, and then ensure that a robust Diameter network is in place to manage the

signaling trac.

1 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Trac Forecast or 2011 to 2016

This Index demonstrates

that Diameter signaling

trac increases will

signicantly outpace

data trac growth.


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Execution o the above services requires requent Diameter signaling among the

ollowing elements:

Policy Servers (PCRF)

Online Charging Systems (OCS)

Ofine Charging Systems (OFCS)

Home Subscriber Servers (HSS)

Mobility Management Entities (MME)

Policy Control Enorcement Points (PCEF), like Packet Gateways (PGW) and

Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)

Session Management, like Call Session Control Functions (CSCF)

Service providers should not take a wait-and-see approach to Diameter signaling.

Exact Ventures acknowledges that service providers ace an urgent need or a new

signaling inrastructure and are becoming more cognizant o how much o their

uture network plans depend on Diameter signaling.2 Moreover, analyst orecasts about

the sheer number o devices, applications, and services are a harbinger o what is yet

to come. For example, IDC predicts 1.8 billion smart connected devices will be shipped

in 2016, up rom 1.1 billion in 2012.3 These devices will generate increased Diameter

signaling trac in the core network. Many o them will be used in an always-on mode

as subscribers engage in multiple concurrent data sessions, generating more Diameter

signaling messages per subscriber. The concept o busy hour will evolve as signaling

trac peaks and valleys do not necessarily occur at the same time o day.

diamEtEr Signaling indEx ForEcaSt

Diameter MPS are expected to reach 47 million by 2016 with a CAGR o 252% between

2011 and 2016 as shown in Figure 1. This growth is attributed to a number o

actors including:

LTE subscriber growth

Implementation o more complex policy use cases in LTE networks

Increases in charging interactions with policy and policy enorcement points

More sophisticated and personalized data plans

2 Diameter Signaling Controllers Forecast Report and Analysis 2012-2017,

Exact Ventures, 2012

3 Worldwide Device Tracker, IDC, 2012.

Service providers should

not take a wait-and-

see approach to

Diameter signaling.


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Figure 1. Global Diameter messages per second growth: 2011-2016

Global MPS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR

87,141 881,570 2,573,753 7,132,104 18,848,978 46,943,835 252%

Source: Tekelec Diameter Signaling Index, 2012

Table 2. Global Diameter messages per second growth: 2011-2016

Trend 1: poLicy has The LargesT impacT on diameTer

signaLing growTh

Policy has the largest impact on signaling trac growth, reaching 24 million MPS by 2016.

As policy use cases become more complex and personalized, Diameter trac will ramp as

PCRFs interact more requently with charging systems, enorcement points and the mobile

device itsel. With the implementation o the Sy interace, the PCRF will interact directly

with the OCS (today the PCRF communicates with the OCS via the PGW).

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

GlobalDiameterMessagesperSecon

d


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Figure 2. Global Diameter signaling message per second growth bymessage type: 2011-2016

Global MPS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR

Mobility 18,108 183,191 395,879 811,147 1,600,697 2,985,665 178%

Policy 35,101 355,109 1,144,242 3,386,227 9,347,456 23,977,184 269%

Online

Charging

17,551 177,554 587,378 1,805,987 5,207,868 13,986,690 280%

Ofine

Charging

16,381 165,716 446,254 1,128,743 2,692,957 5,994,296 226%


Table 2. Global Diameter signaling message per second growth bymessage type: 2011-2016

For the purposes o this Index, it is assumed that only air usage and quota management

policies are implemented. This conservative approach is adopted because it establishes a

baseline or the growth in more complex policy use cases going orward.

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

ekelec Diameter Si nalin Index 2012

Glob

alDiameterSignalingMessagesperS

econd

Mobility 178% CAGR Policy 269% CAGR

Online Charging 280% CAGR Oine Charging 226% CAGR


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Online charging represents the next largest growth area or Diameter signaling and

is expected to grow at the astest CAGR o 280% over the orecast period. This

is attributed to the interactions between the OCS, PGW and PCRF or complex,personalized use cases such as dierentiated charging or service tiers, loyalty programs,

and applications. Also, many service providers are maintaining legacy charging platorms.

As these platorms migrate to IP, Diameter will replace legacy protocols. The same is true

or ofine charging.

Mobility includes trac between the MME and HSS or authentication and authorization

in both the home and visited network. LTE roaming is not implemented as o this report

date, however there are plans to introduce it in 2013. A sharper growth rate in mobility-

related trac will occur once roaming is implemented.

Trend 2: Voice and Video oVer LTe are The LargesT

conTribuTors To diameTer signaLing growTh

Diameter signaling rom several dierent service types is presented in Figure 3. The data

show how many signaling messages are generated when LTE subscribers perorm the

same task at one time. This could be a busy hour o the day or an event that causes

heavy simultaneous usage such as a sporting event or a new device launch. Since this

refects the number o messages or one session, note that there could be multiple

occurrences o a service type during a busy hour. The services analyzed are:

Authentication

Data Connection

Fair Usage and Quota Management

Social Media

Video Streaming

Roaming

Voice over LTE


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20,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

DiameterSignalingMessagesbyServiceT

ype

Tekelec Diameter Signaling Index, 2012

AuthenticationData Connection

Fair Usage/Quota Management

Video Streaming

Social Networking

Voice over LTE

Figure 3. Diameter signaling message growth by service type: 2011-2016

Global Messages 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Authentication 48,889,854 494,937,885 950,108,780 1,752,077,683 3,143,187,013 5,374,196,420

Data Connection 97,779,708 989,875,770 1,900,217,561 3,504,155,366 6,286,374,026 10,748,392,840

Fair Usage/Quota

Management

244,449,270 2,474,689,425 4,750,543,902 8,760,388,416 15,715,935,066 26,870,982,099

Video Streaming 268,894,197 2,722,158,368 5,225,598,292 9,636,427,258 17,287,528,573 29,558,080,309

Social

Networking

154,817,871 1,567,303,303 3,008,677,805 5,548,245,997 9,953,425,542 17,018,288,663

Voice Over LTE 325,932,360 3,299,589,900 6,334,058,536 11,680,517,888 20,954,580,088 35,827,976,132


Table 3. Diameter signaling message growth by service type: 2011-2016

There is a signicant dierence in signaling or VoLTE and or pure authentication,

which is the starting point or many service providers rolling out LTE networks. Diameter

signaling trac grows as new LTE services are deployed. It is, thereore, critical that

service providers incorporate these requirements in Diameter network architectures.

The characteristics o Diameter signaling change depending on network design and

implementation. The amount o Diameter trac also diers rom interace to interace.

Finally, the service type requested by the device aects the number o Diameter signalingmessages on each interace.


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A simple data connection with authentication requires a ew Diameter messages

per session. However, this number increases by an order o magnitude to support a

roaming session with quality o service. While the exact counts vary based on networkimplementation approaches, assumptions are made or the purposes o this Index.

Authentication assumes the device is turned on and registers with the network, as well

as establishes a data connection. No other services are requested, so this is considered a

baseline or Diameter dimensioning.

Data connection assumes the device has registered in the network, but is in an idle state.

The device requests an additional deault bearer or a new session or web browsing or

email. The number o Diameter messages more than double in this scenario. This is a

good benchmark or a smartphone, which has higher concurrent data connections.

Video streaming assumes a device is requesting service rom an application such as

YouTube or NetFlix. Quality o Service (QoS) is required in this case as well as a dedicated

bearer channel.

Social networking applications such as Facebook and LinkedIn drive behavioral changes

in subscribers. The overall experience when using them as an application on a device

is enhanced compared to accessing these applications over a web browser. This

behavioral change has a direct impact on Diameter signaling, since subscribers use these

applications more than they would i they were accessed using a web browser.

Finally, in the case o Voice over LTE, a dedicated bearer is required to ensure QoS, and

Diameter messages increase to establish multiple IP connections.

Trend 3: norTh america is The LargesT conTribuTor

To diameTer signaLing Traffic Through 2015, buT

is surpassed by apac in 2016. caLa has The fasTesT

growTh raTe foLLowed by emea.

North America leads the world in LTE subscribers and Diameter signaling trac through

2015 and reaches 16 million Diameter MPS by 2016 (Figure 4).4 The region has a high

penetration o smart devices and is introducing usage-based LTE services that require

policy and charging.

4 LTE subscriber data is derived rom analyst reports on subscriber growth by region


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Figure 4. Total number o Diameter messages per second, by region: 2011-2016

Global MPS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR

North America 50,256 431,155 1,085,644 2,702,766 6,596,470 15,918,752 216%

Asia Pacic 26,370 368,356 976,395 2,558,885 6,574,429 16,701,659 263%

Europe, Middle

East, Arica

10,511 81,995 503,114 1,823,462 5,505,994 13,783,740 320%

Caribbean,

Latin America

4 64 8,600 46,991 172,085 539,684 962%


Table 4. Total number o Diameter messages per second, by region: 2011-2016

The number o LTE subscribers in the Asia Pacic region surpasses North America in

2016. The region is expected to reach almost 17 million Diameter MPS in that same year

higher than al l other regions globally. While Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Australia are

deploying LTE today, there is plenty o room or growth in this region as other countries

ollow with their own LTE implementations.

MPS growth is expected to be most aggressive in CALA, with a CAGR o 962%. CALA is

o to a slower start deploying LTE networks compared to other regions. However, Brazil

recently auctioned LTE licenses and service providers in that country are aggressively

planning LTE service launches in 2013 in advance o the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the

Olympics in 2016. Many other service providers in this region are launching 3G networks

in 2011 and 2012 and will evolve to LTE beginning in 2013.

LTE spectrum auctions in Europe are o to a slow start, resulting in ewer LTE subscribers

or 2012. However, LTE subscriber growth is expected to accelerate in 2013 and 2014.

Northern European countries have been quicker to launch LTE and some service providers

are beneting rom re-arming spectrum or LTE as a strategy to launch LTE services

ahead o competitors and government auctions.


TotalNum

berof

DiameterMessag

esperSecond

320%

CAGR

962%

CAGR

263%

CAGR

216%

CAGR

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000


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The Middle East is a bright spot in the region with several countries such as Saudi Arabia

and UAE with commercial LTE deployments. Overall, the region will experience the

second-astest growth in Diameter MPS growth over the 2011-2016 period witha CAGR o 320%.

tHE FuturE oF diamEtEr Signaling

Over the next several years, many service providers will evolve to become digital liestyle

providers that deliver new OTT, M2M, cloud, mobile advertising and mobile

payment services.

Figure 5. Future growth in Diameter messages per second per subscriber

In an all-IP world, Diameter signaling will enable these new business models, which will

drive a sharp increase in the number o concurrent data sessions per subscriber and

Diameter MPS as shown conceptually in Figure 5.

It will be Diameter that acilitates policy and charging rules or these new business

models such as:

Opt-in OTT and advertising sponsored data

Quality o service guarantees

Personalized quota management

Preerential rating o services

Time-o-day rules or data back up to the cloud or smart meter transmissions

Service, application, and device prioritization such as healthcare, mobile payment and

emergency services

Personalized mobile advertisements

It will be Diameter that

acilitates policy and

charging or new OTT,

advertising, and M2M

business models.Network MPSOTT/Advertising MPS

M2M MPS

DiameterMessagespersecond

Payment MPS


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


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And, it will be Diameter that will help service providers expose policies, subscriber

data, charging data, and analytics to new partners, as well as help ensure secure

interconnection and privacy or subscriber inormation.

concluSion

Diameter signaling trac is expected to grow more than three times aster than mobile

data trac over the 2011-2016 period. As devices evolve and service providers add new

personalized data plans and embrace innovative business models, it is expected that

subscribers will continue to sharply increase their mobile data usage.

Policy and online charging are the most signicant actors in the continued growth

o Diameter signaling, especially as new data plans and business models emerge, as

use cases become more complex, and as new Diameter interaces are introduced. As

Diameter signaling grows, the need or a highly scalable, reliable and fexible signaling

inrastructure becomes paramount. The early days o Diameter signaling have already

illustrated the need or a centralized Diameter network architecture, and the uture

certainly indicates that Diameter signaling will continue to grow rapidly.

As a measure o network intelligence, the Tekelec Diameter Signaling Index is an

important tool or service providers to meet the challenges and opportunities in the

mobile data marketplace.


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annEx a

index assumpTions and meThodoLogyThis Index makes a ew assumptions regarding the implementation o LTE networks or

the purpose o this report. The Index is an LTE Diameter trac demand model rather

than an engineered network model. It is a baseline model that serves as a starting point

rom which service providers can layer on critical actors such as network architecture,

topology, capacity requirements, geo-redundancy and other implementation-specic

actors that are needed to architect a robust, reliable and scalable Diameter Network.

For Policy, trac management use cases were actored in as well as the assumption that

heavy data users drive more policy interactions with enorcement points than light data

users. The additional Diameter messages generated by heavy users are included in the

Index. The Index ocuses on LTE networks. It does not account or Diameter trac on 3G

networks. It is based on home network activity and LTE-to-LTE roaming and excludes LTE

to 3G roaming at this time. The Index also excludes IMS applications with the exception

o VoLTE. Finally, the Index does not include additional Diameter trac that will be

generated by hundreds o millions o M2M devices that will come onto networks over

the next ew years.

The Tekelec LTE Diameter Signaling Index is based on a number o resources. LTE

subscriber data is derived rom analyst reports on subscriber growth by region. 3GPP

and GSM Association specications and documentation are used or determining

the trac fows or each unique service. These are used to determine the number

o Diameter messages that are created or individual session types. Trac fows are

validated in Tekelecs Diameter Trac Laboratory, which is a dedicated acility that uses

Tekelecs Diameter Signaling Router, Policy Server, and Home Subscriber Server network

elements with the Developing Solutions dsTest sotware or emulating User Equipment,

MME, and OCS unctions.

Tekelec uses the industry standard metric Messages per Second (MPS) or the volume o

signaling trac in a network. The 3GPP standards reer to transactions as 2 messages

(request/answer). In this Index total messages are counted. Transactions are not taking

into consideration. To derive Transactions per Second rom the Index, one TPS is

equivalent to two Diameter messages (request/answer).

Peg counts are used or the total number o Diameter signaling messages, assuming that

a percentage o the total subscribers all initiated the same service within the same period

o time. This does not address the number o times a subscriber implements the service

within a day, but this can easily be calculated by multiplying by the number o events. It

is meant here as an input to engineered network models.

In an LTE network, the concept is that the device is always on and thereore active.

In reality, the device may be turned on and registered in the network, but not actually

transmitting any data (idle). The Index uses two means to indentiy active versus inactive


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devices. Connected subscribers have devices powered on, but are idle in the network.

Active subscribers have devices that are connected and actively sending data through the

packet network. It is not assumed that 100% o all subscribers are active in a network,nor is it assumed that 100% o all subscribers are connected in a network. A actor

obtained rom various reports is used to reach a reasonable percentage o connected

and active subscribers.

Growth ratios, subscriber usage, the number o subscribers active during the busy hour

and the number o concurrent session are based on Tekelecs experience and custom

research provided by Heavy Reading. Insights into the evolution o services and business

models are inormed by Chetan Sharma Consulting, Signals Research Group, and

Heavy Reading. Data points and assumptions are entered into the Tekelec LTE Diameter

Signaling Index Calculator, available or service providers to orecast Diametersignaling on their networks and available soon as a mobile application or smart devices.

As LTE deployment schedules change and services evolve, Tekelec will publish subsequent

reports at regular intervals to refect changing trends and impacts on the LTE Diameter

Signaling Index.

annEx B

discLaimer

This report contains both statements o act and uture estimates relating to Diameter

signaling trac and global telecommunications markets and represents Tekelecs current

understanding o these matters. This report is designed to oer general guidance to

these subject matters only and is not intended as a substitute or a customers own

judgment or or that o its proessional advisors. The inormation in this report is current

only as o the date o release, and may thereore not contain complete, accurate or

timely data.

To the extent permitted by law, Tekelec and its employees and directors disclaim and

exclude all liability or any loss or damage arising rom the use o or reliance on the

inormation and estimates contained in this report, whether or not such loss or damage

is caused by any act o negligence.


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Tekelec has more than 300 customers in more than 100 countries. For inormation on our

worldwide ofces, visit the Tekelec website at www.tekelec.com/ofces.

This document is or inormational purposes only, and Tekelec reserves the right to change any aspect o

the products, eatures or unctionality described in this document without notice. Please contact Tekelec

or additional inormation and updates. Solutions and examples are provided or illustration only. Actual

implementation o these solutions may vary based on individual needs and circumstances.

2012 Tekelec. All rights reserved. TEKELEC, EAGLE, TekServer, G-Flex, G-Port, and CAMIANT are

registered trademarks o Tekelec.

The Tekelec logo, A-Port, EAGLE 5 ISS, V-Flex, ngHLR, Diameter Signaling Router (DSR), BLUESLICE,

and Subscriber Data Server (SDS) are trademarks o Tekelec. Other product names used herein are oridentication purposes only and may be trademarks o their respective companies.

www.tekelec.com

Tekelec Global Headquarters

+1.919.460.5500

888.628.5527

[email protected]

EMEA +44.1784.437000

APAC +65.6796.2288

CALA +1.919.460.5500

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