telenor asa · 1/22/2018  · grameenphone - bangladesh 10% pakistan 6% myanmar 5% broadcast 5%...

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CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION 22 January 2018 Update RATINGS Telenor ASA Domicile Norway Long Term Rating A3 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Carlos Winzer 34-91-768-8238 Senior Vice President [email protected] Ivan Palacios 34-91-768-8229 Associate Managing Director [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Telenor ASA Update to credit analysis Summary Telenor ASA 's (Telenor) A3 rating reflects the group's (1) moderate scale; (2) position as the incumbent integrated company in Norway; (3) leading mobile telephony operations in Asia; (4) good geographical diversification; (5) expected continuation of good operating performance; (6) continued strong cash flow generation; (7) management's focus on maintaining solid credit ratios, with reported net debt/EBITDA of below 2.0x, broadly equivalent to 2.6x Moody's- adjusted gross leverage; and (8) excellent liquidity management. Telenor is a government-related issuer (GRI). The rating benefits from a one-notch uplift owing to government support. Exhibit 1 Leverage is expected to remain well within the rating band for Telenor's A3 rating Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA evolution, from 2013 to 12-18 months' forward view 1.9x 2.1x 2.0x 2.2x 1.8x 2.1x 1.5x 1.7x 1.9x 2.1x 2.3x 2.5x 2.7x 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM September 2017 12-18 month forward looking Debt/ EBITDA Could change the rating up Could change the rating down Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™, Moody's Investors Service estimates

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Page 1: Telenor ASA · 1/22/2018  · Grameenphone - Bangladesh 10% Pakistan 6% Myanmar 5% Broadcast 5% Other units 7% Norway 20% Rest of Scandinavia 9% Central & Eastern Europe 10% dtac

CORPORATES

CREDIT OPINION22 January 2018

Update

RATINGS

Telenor ASADomicile Norway

Long Term Rating A3

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Carlos Winzer 34-91-768-8238Senior Vice [email protected]

Ivan Palacios 34-91-768-8229Associate [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Telenor ASAUpdate to credit analysis

SummaryTelenor ASA's (Telenor) A3 rating reflects the group's (1) moderate scale; (2) position as theincumbent integrated company in Norway; (3) leading mobile telephony operations in Asia; (4)good geographical diversification; (5) expected continuation of good operating performance;(6) continued strong cash flow generation; (7) management's focus on maintaining solid creditratios, with reported net debt/EBITDA of below 2.0x, broadly equivalent to 2.6x Moody's-adjusted gross leverage; and (8) excellent liquidity management.

Telenor is a government-related issuer (GRI). The rating benefits from a one-notch uplift owingto government support.

Exhibit 1

Leverage is expected to remain well within the rating band for Telenor's A3 ratingMoody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA evolution, from 2013 to 12-18 months' forward view

1.9x

2.1x2.0x

2.2x

1.8x

2.1x

1.5x

1.7x

1.9x

2.1x

2.3x

2.5x

2.7x

2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM September 2017 12-18 month forward looking

Debt/ EBITDA Could change the rating up Could change the rating down

Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™, Moody's Investors Service estimates

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Credit strengths

» Moderate scale, integrated business model and broad geographical diversification

» Leading market positions in most of its markets

» Good progress in delivering cost-efficiency measures, which supports a higher-than-peer EBITDA margin

» Conservative financial policy and excellent liquidity management

» Solid credit metrics, with Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA of around 2.1x in the next 12-18 months

» Expected good operating performance in 2018

Credit challenges

» High exposure to emerging market volatility, partially offset by management's track record of executing its internationaldiversification strategy

» Intense competition in some markets, including Denmark, Thailand, Malaysia and Myanmar

» Potential spectrum constraint in Thailand in 2018 considering high auction prices in the country in the past

Rating outlookThe stable rating outlook reflects the strength of Telenor's financial ratios. We expect the group to exhibit adjusted retained cash flow(RCF)/debt in the mid-20s in percentage terms and debt/EBITDA of around 2.1x over the next couple of years.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeWe would consider upgrading Telenor's rating if the group's credit metrics improve such that (1) adjusted RCF/debt is sustained in thehigh 30s in percentage terms, and (2) adjusted debt/EBITDA drops consistently and comfortably below 2x.

In addition to the factors listed above affecting Telenor's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), the group's rating could be affected by changesin the rating of the supporting government, or changes in our assessment of default dependence and government support.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeNegative rating pressure could develop if Telenor's (1) adjusted RCF/debt were to deteriorate to the low 20s in percentage terms for asustained period of time, or (2) adjusted debt/EBITDA were to increase significantly above 2.5x. Furthermore, meaningful investmentsin emerging market assets would also strain Telenor's current rating, even without considering the effect of such investments on thegroup's credit metrics.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Telenor ASA 12/31/2018 Expected 12/31/2017 Expected 9/30/2017(L) 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 12/31/2013

Revenue (USD Billion) $15.1 $15.0 $15.7 $15.6 $15.9 $17.7 $16.9

Debt / EBITDA 2.0x 1.8x 1.8x 2.2x 2.0x 2.1x 1.9x

RCF / Debt 26.6% 31.9% 33.3% 26.5% 24.5% 23.3% 38.7%

(EBITDA - CAPEX) / Interest Expense 7.2x 7.9x 7.8x 6.4x 8.0x 9.4x 7.9x

All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

ProfileTelenor is the leading integrated telecommunications provider in Norway. The company delivers a full range of services and products,including mobile and fixed-line telephony, and broadband and datacom services for residential and business customers, as well as a broadrange of wholesale services. Telenor is also a leading provider of television and broadcasting services in the Nordic region. In addition,the company is one of the leading international providers of mobile services, with around 176 million mobile subscribers worldwide asof September 2017. The company's activities outside its home market include mobile and fixed operations in Sweden and Denmark, andmobile operations in Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Thailand (dtac), Malaysia (Digi), Bangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar. Telenoris majority owned by the Government of Norway (Aaa stable), which holds a 54% stake in the company.

Exhibit 3

Norway, Thailand and Bangladesh are the core contributors toTelenor's revenueRevenue breakdown by geography (12 months ended September 2017)

Exhibit 4

Norway, Bangladesh and Malaysia are the core contributors toTelenor's EBITDA minus capital spendingEBITDA minus capital spending breakdown by geography (12 months endedSeptember 2017)

Norway 20%

Rest of Scandinavia14%

Central & Eastern Europe9%

dtac - Thailand15%

Digi - Malaysia9%

Grameenphone -Bangladesh10%

Pakistan6%

Myanmar5%

Broadcast5%

Other units7%

Norway 20%

Rest of Scandinavia9%

Central & Eastern Europe10%

dtac - Thailand9%

Digi - Malaysia13%

Grameenphone -Bangladesh20%

Pakistan9%

Myanmar5%

Broadcast5%

Rest of Scandinavia: Sweden and Denmark; Central and Eastern Europe: Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro.Source: Company reports

Detailed credit considerationsScale, integrated business model and broad geographical diversificationTelenor's rating reflects its moderate scale, with revenue of NOK124.4 billion in the 12 months ended September 2017, and goodgeographical diversification. The company's well-diversified revenue stream has been beneficial for the group, allowing it to offset slightlyweaker revenue growth in its domestic market in Norway with the group's strong performance in emerging markets in Asia. The companyholds strong market positions in a number of countries: Telenor is the dominant company in Norway, where it operates an integratedbusiness model, and is ranked number one or two in all the other countries where it operates in Europe and Asia but Thailand (rankednumber three).

Exhibit 5

Telenor has a dominant position in its domestic marketNorwegian telecom market share based on revenue (residential and business subscriptions combined)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Telenor Telia Phonero ICE Phonect NextGen Tel TDC/ Get Lyse Fiber Others

Fixed Broadband Mobile

Data as of December 2016.Source: Norwegian Communications Authority

3 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

A highlight of Telenor’s expansion in Asia is Myanmar, which was launched commercially in September 2014. The company has rapidlygained scale, with over 19.1 million mobile subscribers as of September 2017, while at the same time generating positive free cash flow(FCF) (achieved for the first time in the first quarter of 2016). This greenfield project provides solid growth prospects, but uncertaintiesremain regarding capital commitments and returns in the short to medium term. Competitive risk is also high as companies operatingin Myanmar have started to implement aggressive offers to build up market share. The operating environment may deteriorate furtherwith the entrance of a fourth company in 2018. The sharp reduction in ARPU (NOK27 as of Q3 2017 versus NOK52 as of Q1 2015) isa clear indicator of this underlying trend.

Favourable revenue growth trends, despite intense competition in key marketsTelenor delivered a relatively good set of results in the first three quarters of 2017, with organic revenue growth of 1.1% from the year-earlier period (0.8% in the first three quarters of 2016). Top-line growth was primarily driven by emerging markets in Asia, particularlyBangladesh (13% in local currency from the year-earlier period in Q3 2017), on mobile subscriber growth (+16% from the year-earlierperiod in Q3 2017) and higher data usage. Pakistan and Myanmar also reported solid growth, despite the intense competition, withrevenue up 7% year-over-year (organically assuming fixed currency and adjusted for the reversal of provisions) and +6% year-over-yearin Q3 2017 (local currency), respectively, owing to rapid growth in data demand and subscriber growth.

In Telenor's core market, Norway, organic revenue has been relatively flat (Q3 2017: -0.6%; Q2 2017: -0.3%; Q1 2017: -1.6%) becausegrowth in fixed-broadband revenue (9% in Q3 2017) owing to fibre rollout was offset by a slight decrease in mobile and traffic revenue(-1% in Q3 2017). In mobile, the company continued to benefit from higher ARPU (1% in Q3 2017), resulting from the migration tohigher data tariffs on the back of the 4G rollout; however, this increase was offset by subscriber losses (down 3% from the year-earlierperiod in Q3 2017), especially in prepaid subscriptions and standalone data cards.

In mature Asia, which includes Thailand (dtac) and Malaysia (Digi), performance has been somewhat weak because intense competitionin the prepaid segment is resulting in subscriber losses. However, Telenor is taking steps to reverse this trend by shifting both brandstowards the postpaid converged market, characterised by higher ARPU, less aggressive device discounts and, therefore, double-digitrevenue growth in percentage terms. In Thailand, total revenue was down 4% in Q3 2017, but postpaid revenue, which now exceedsrevenue in the prepaid segment, has shown good momentum, with organic revenue growth of +16% in Q3 2017 from the year-earlierperiod on the back of higher ARPU (+4% in Q3 2017). In Malaysia, revenue trends in Q3 2017 showed early signs of recovery (-3% fromthe year-earlier period in Q3 2017); prepaid revenue stabilised on the back of mitigation actions such a revamped internet offer, whilegrowth in the postpaid market was solid (+14% organically).

For the full year, management is guiding for organic revenue growth of 1%-2%. In the medium term, management aims to grow annualrevenue in the low single digits in percentage terms. We expect organic revenue growth of 1%-1.5% per year, supported by (1) growthin data demand in emerging markets in Asia on growing real smartphone penetration (estimated to be between 50% and 60% inBangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar) and more affordable smartphones; and (2) continued upselling in mobile in Norway on growth indata usage (at 1.4 gigabyte per month per customer in Q3 2017, around half of that in Sweden).

4 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 6

Revenue growth in the nine months ended September 2017 was driven by growth in Bangladesh, Pakistan and MyanmarOrganic revenue growth by region evolution, Q1 2017-Q3 2017

-1.6%

5.7%

-8.9%

-4.8%

11.1%9.9%

13.0%

0.2%

-0.3%

5.5%

-1.9%

-6.2%

15.4%

8.3%7.2%

2.1%

-0.6%

3.1%

-3.6% -3.1%

12.7%

10.6%

6.4%

1.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Norway Sweden dtac - Thailand DiGi - Malaysia Grameenphone -Bangladesh

Pakistan Myanmar Telenor Group

Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

Source: Company reports

Cost-saving programme to support EBITDA margin expansionTelenor's organic EBITDA growth in the first three quarters of 2017 was strong (+5% year-to-date 2017), while the EBITDA marginstood at 40.1%, above the European telecoms sector average of around 35%.

EBITDA growth was driven by service revenue growth and lower operating expenses on cost-efficiency measures implemented bymanagement primarily in Norway, Malaysia, Denmark and Thailand. At the capital markets day held in Q1 2017, Telenor announced anambitious cost-saving programme, which aims to reduce operating expenses by NOK1 billion in 2017 and 1%-3% annually between2018 and 2020 (versus an increase of around 3% per year in recent years). Improved cost efficiency will stem from (1) workforcereductions, as the company shifts its customer service to digital channels; (2) lower marketing and sales spending; (3) a decreasein regulatory costs in Thailand owing to the shift from a concession regime to a licence regime; and (4) lower operating spendingstemming from IT system simplification, among others.

Telenor has so far demonstrated its ability to deliver on its strategy, having met its full-year target of NOK1 billion by Q3 2017.Management expects this momentum to continue into Q4 2017, and for the full year is guiding an EBITDA margin of 38%-39% (versus36.7% in 2016). While there is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of operating spending reductions, Telenor remains confidentthat lower sales and marketing spending (accounting for 22% of the operating spending reduction) will not compromise the company'smarket position in countries with intense competition. We expect EBITDA margins to increase to just over 39% by 2018.

Exhibit 7

Telenor's cost-saving programme drives EBITDA margin expansionEBITDA before other income and other expenses and EBITDA before other income and other expenses margin evolution, Q1 2016-2018E

11,629 11,381 12,307 10,649 11,462 12,719 12,976

48,690 49,248

36.9% 36.8%

39.4%

33.6%

37.6%

40.4%

42.2%

39.0% 39.2%

25.0%

27.0%

29.0%

31.0%

33.0%

35.0%

37.0%

39.0%

41.0%

43.0%

45.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 2017E 2018E

EB

ITD

A m

arg

in

NO

K m

illio

ns

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)

Source: Company reports

5 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Lower capital spending intensity to support cash flow generation, but the risk of a high spectrum price in Thailand remainsOver the past few years, Telenor made substantial capital spending investments, including (1) the rollout of 3G and 4G coverage inNorway and Thailand; (2) capital spending in Myanmar to expand its network coverage and enhance its capacity to cope with thestrong demand for voice and data; and (3) investments in its backhaul capacity.

In Norway, Telenor has reached 99% population coverage on 4G and is ranked as the fastest network in the country, with averagespeeds of 54 megabytes per second. In Thailand, the company has reached 83% 4G population coverage, and in May 2017, wasselected as the preferred partner by the Telecom Organization of Thailand for utilising the latter's 2.3 megahertz (MHz) spectrum.Telenor believes the deal will significantly strengthen its network position in Thailand through greater speeds. Nevertheless, wehighlight that over 60% of the spectrum alloted to dtac (the 800 MHz and 1,800 MHz frequency bands) is coming up for auctionin September 2018. As a result, dtac will have to be successful in the upcoming bids to preserve its market position. In addition, weacknowledge the potential for high spectrum pricing, given the high auction prices in the country in the past.

Management believes capital spending peaked in 2015 and is guiding for capital spending/sales, excluding spectrum licence fees, of15%-16% in 2017 (versus 17.4% revenue in 2016). In the medium term, management expects capital spending to account for around15% of revenue, with investments focusing on fibre rollout in (1) Norway and Sweden to strengthen Telenor's market position; and (2)selective markets in emerging Asian markets, such as Myanmar.

Lower capital spending and EBITDA growth have supported significant growth in year-to-date FCF generation (defined as company-adjusted EBITDA net of cash tax and interest, dividends, working capital and capital spending) to NOK7.9 billion (versus NOK1.9 billionduring the same period in the previous year). In the next two years, we expect healthy FCF of around NOK 4 billion-NOK5 billion perannum, assuming capital (excluding spectrum)/sales of around 16%.

Exhibit 8

Capital spending is expected to reduce to 16% in 2018E after reaching its peak in 2015Capital spending (excluding spectrum, in NOK millions), and capital spending/sales evolution, Q1 2016-2018E

5,138 5,049 4,886

6,768

4,533 4,392 3,822

20,800 20,584

16% 16%16%

21%

15%

14%

12%

17% 16%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 2017E 2018E

Capex excluding spectrum Capex/ sales

Source: Company reports

Conservative financial policy, underpinned by a solid balance sheet and a selective M&A strategyTelenor follows a balanced financial policy between shareholders and creditors. The group's capital allocation priorities are (1)maintaining a solid balance sheet, with reported net debt/EBITDA of below 2.0x (versus 0.9x as of 30 September 2017), broadlyequivalent to 2.6x Moody's-adjusted gross leverage; and (2) aiming for a year-on-year growth in dividend per share.

On top of cash dividends, Telenor may occasionally consider share buybacks and special dividends. For instance, on 30 June 2017, thecompany announced a 2% share buyback programme (equivalent to around NOK5 billion) on the back of a solid balance sheet andproceeds from recent asset disposals.

As part of management's strategic review of its portfolio of assets, we expect the group to look for opportunities to acquire businessesthat strengthen Telenor's position in its core markets. In our view, the company's M&A strategy will likely be very selective andcautious, consistent with the group's medium-term net debt/EBITDA guidance. One such example was the acquisition of the marketing

6 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

technology company Tapad in February 2016 for $360 million. Similarly, we do not expect the group to undertake large-scaleacquisitions, given the lack of greenfield opportunities, such as Myanmar, available.

Liquidity analysisTelenor's liquidity profile is robust and benefits from (1) cash and cash equivalents of NOK29.8 billion as of 30 September 2017; (2)annual funds from operations (defined as cash flow from operations before changes in working capital) of around NOK40.0 billion peryear; and (3) full availability under its €2.0 billion committed revolving credit facility maturing in April 2021. The facility is not subjectto material adverse change clauses or financial covenants.

Proceeds from further asset disposals, on the back of management’s strategy to exit regions that are of less strategic importance, couldprovide further support to Telenor's liquidity. In the first nine months of 2017, Telenor completed the sell down of VEON Ltd. (Ba2stable, former VimpelCom Ltd.) as part of its simplification strategy, reducing its total share of capital to 14.6%. Earlier in the year,Telenor also announced the sale of its Indian operations to Bharti Airtel Ltd. (Baa3 negative, closing expected in Q1 2018) and its exitfrom Latin America, among others.

Exhibit 9

Telenor's debt maturity profile over the next 12-18 months is well covered with existing liquidity sourcesDebt maturity profile as of 30 September 2017 (NOK billions)

8.7

1.80.9

4.6

0.62.1

3.85.2

0.8

8.7

4.1

7.1

0

4.7

11.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 and Beyond

Subsidiaries Telenor ASA

Excluding the $1 billion exchangeable bond due in September 2019, with remaining VEON shares as underlying security.Source: Company's Q3 2017 results presentation

Rating methodology and scorecard factorsMethodology gridIn assessing Telenor's credit quality, we apply the Telecommunications Service Providers rating methodology. The methodology gridoutcome of A3 is one notch above the BCA of baa1.

The difference incorporates the risks of operating in emerging markets, such as currency fluctuations, regulatory and political risks, M&Aevent risk and execution risks associated with greenfield investments such as Myanmar.

7 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 10

Rating factors gridTelenor ASA

Telecommunications Service Providers Industry Grid [1][2]

Factor 1 : Scale (12.5%) Measure Score Measure Score

a) Revenue (USD Billion) $15.7 Baa $15.2 Baa

Factor 2 : Business Profile (27.5%)

a) Business Model, Competitive Environment and Technical Positioning Aa Aa Aa Aa

b) Regulatory Environment Ba Ba Ba Ba

c) Market Share A A A A

Factor 3 : Profitability and Efficiency (10%)

a) Revenue Trend and Margin Sustainability A A A A

Factor 4 : Leverage and Coverage (35%)

a) Debt / EBITDA 1.8x A 2.1x Baa

b) RCF / Debt 33.3% Baa 25% - 26% Baa

c) (EBITDA - CAPEX) / Interest Expense 7.8x Aa 7.2x Aa

Factor 5 : Financial Policy (15%)

a) Financial Policy A A A A

Rating:

a) Indicated Outcome from Scorecard A2 A3

b) Actual Rating Assigned A3

Government-Related Issuer Factor

a) Baseline Credit Assessment baa1

b) Government Local Currency Rating Aaa

c) Default Dependence Low

d) Support Low

e) Final Rating Outcome A3

Current

LTM 9/30/2017

Moody's 12-18 Month Forward

View

As of 12/19/2017 [3]

[1] All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.[2] As of 09/30/2016.[3] This represents Moody's forward view; not the view of the issuer; and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures.Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™, Moody's Investors Service estimates

Government-related issuer inputsTelenor qualifies as a GRI under our methodology because it is 54.0% government owned. Our A3 rating for the company reflects thecombination of the following GRI inputs: (1) A BCA of baa1, (2) the Aaa stable local-currency rating of the Norwegian government, (3)low default dependence between Telenor and the government, and (4) the likelihood that the government will provide a low level ofsupport to the company if needed.

The low level of default dependence between Telenor and the government reflects the weak correlation between the company's creditprofile and Norwegian economic trends, which is mainly a result of the group's strong liquidity and increasing market diversity. Morespecifically, our assessment that there is a low level of default dependence between Telenor and the government is based on the lack offinancial and operational links between the two. Telecom operators generally have a fairly low level of correlation with the sovereign. Inparticular, we observe that direct and indirect fiscal transfers and government telecom spending represent a low proportion of Telenor'srevenue. More generally, the company and the government are not exposed to the same revenue base and do not share the same creditrisks as demonstrated by the fact that 80% of Telenor's revenue in the 12 months ended September 2017 was generated outside ofNorway.

Our assessment of a low level of government support available to Telenor in the event of stress is based on the following observations: (1)There is no explicit support from the government, (2) we are not aware of any formal verbal or written confirmation that the government

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

will support the company in the event of a default on its financial debt, and (3) the company does not have any special legal status thatwould suggest a closer link with the state or an implicit form of support.

The government's 54% ownership of Telenor and its willingness to behave as a rational shareholder suggest that the government wouldnot be the sole provider of support under a stress scenario. Instead, the government would likely only consider providing support jointlywith other shareholders in the form of a capital increase. Although Norway’s parliament has approved a possible reduction in the stateownership of Telenor to 34% in the event of a strategic transaction, we are not aware of any plans for further privatisation.

There are EU policy barriers to the provision of direct financial support, and the government is likely to obey these rules. We considerthe Norwegian government to be non-interventionist, despite holding significant ownership stakes in several companies. In our view, itis unlikely that the government's solid reputation would be damaged in the event of default by Telenor. The company's economic andsocial importance in Norway has diminished over the recent years. This reduction is a result of the increasing presence of viable, privatelyowned competitors with significant market shares and the group's presence in emerging markets.

Appendix

Exhibit 11

Peer snapshot: Telenor ASA (12 months ended September 2017)

A3 Stable A2 Stable Baa1 Stable Baa2 Stable A1 Stable

(in USD millions) FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM

Sep-17

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM

Jun-17

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM

Jun-17

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM

Sep-17

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM

Sep-17

Revenue $15.9 $15.6 $15.7 $12.1 $11.8 $11.7 $10.3 $9.8 $9.3 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $6.6 $6.4 $6.4

EBITDA $6.0 $6.0 $6.6 $4.7 $4.6 $4.7 $3.1 $3.2 $3.1 $0.7 $0.7 $0.8 $2.1 $2.0 $2.1

Total Debt $10.9 $12.6 $12.3 $12.5 $11.3 $12.8 $13.8 $12.8 $12.4 $1.3 $1.5 $1.7 $3.2 $2.8 $3.3

EBITDA Margin 37.4% 38.1% 41.8% 38.6% 39.1% 40.0% 30.0% 32.8% 33.4% 37.4% 38.0% 39.9% 31.4% 31.4% 32.5%

FFO + Int Exp / Int Exp 14.2x 13.9x 14.3x 14.3x 15.6x 17.3x 11.4x 10.6x 10.2x 17.3x 19.1x 22.7x 13.7x 18.0x 22.1x

EBITDA - CAPEX/Int. Exp. 8.0x 6.4x 7.8x 5.7x 6.6x 8.0x 1.7x 2.8x 2.6x 10.8x 12.4x 14.3x 6.5x 7.6x 10.4x

Debt / EBITDA 2.0x 2.2x 1.8x 2.8x 2.5x 2.7x 4.5x 4.2x 3.8x 2.0x 2.2x 2.0x 1.6x 1.5x 1.5x

FCF / Debt 2.7% 1.6% 6.2% 1.0% 1.4% 3.4% 2.7% -6.4% -4.4% 4.5% 4.0% 0.9% -4.6% 1.9% -2.0%

RCF / Debt 24.5% 26.5% 33.3% 24.5% 25.4% 24.3% 20.6% 10.5% 13.4% 25.1% 22.3% 26.2% 31.8% 44.0% 39.6%

Swisscom AG Telia Company AB Elisa Corporation Proximus SA de droit publicTelenor ASA

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 12

Telenor's Moody's-adjusted debt breakdown

(in NOK Millions)

FYE

Dec-13

FYE

Dec-14

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM Ending

Sep-17

As Reported Debt 58,292 68,587 76,428 86,361 75,545

Pensions 2,736 3,563 2,424 2,585 2,585

Operating Leases 9,135 13,678 15,315 17,334 17,334

Non-Standard Adjustments 146 1,236 2,605 2,061 2,625

Moody's-Adjusted Debt 70,309 87,064 96,772 108,341 98,089

Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™. All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments

9 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 13

Telenor's Moody's-adjusted EBITDA breakdown

(in NOK Millions)

FYE

Dec-13

FYE

Dec-14

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM Ending

Sep-17

As Reported EBITDA 32,729 36,722 35,894 42,402 46,521

Pensions 408 442 - 57 57

Operating Leases 3,045 3,653 4,808 5,778 5,778

Unusual 370 (2,708) 161 3,384 4,164

Non-Standard Adjustments 1,226 3,798 7,070 (1,517) (1,997)

Moody's-Adjusted EBITDA 37,778 41,907 47,933 50,104 54,523

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Ratings

Exhibit 14Category Moody's RatingTELENOR ASA

Outlook StableSenior Unsecured A3Commercial Paper P-2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

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11 22 January 2018 Telenor ASA: Update to credit analysis