template wrf evaluation against observations in louisiana chris emery environ international...
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TemplateTemplate
WRF Evaluation AgainstObservations in Louisiana
Chris EmeryENVIRON International Corporation, Novato CA
November 14, 2012
2
Sites in the Evaluation
300 400 500 600 700 800
-1100
-1000
-900
-800
-700
KAEX
KAQV
KBAD
KBKB
KBQP
KDNK
KDTN
KESF
KF24
KIER
KMLU
KPOE
KRSNKSHV
K0R3
K4C0 K7R3K7R4
K9F2
KACP
KARA
KASD
KAUD
KAXO
KBTR
KBVE
KCWF
KDRI
KGAO
KHDC
KHUM
KLCHKLFT
KMSYKNBG
KNEW
KP92KPTN
KUXL
3
Wind Speed at Northern Sites
0
2
4
6
8
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug
m/s
Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
0
2
4
6
8
1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep
m/s
Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
0
2
4
6
8
1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct
m/s
Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
4
Wind Speed at Southern Sites
0
2
4
6
8
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug
m/s
Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
0
2
4
6
8
1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep
m/s
Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
0
2
4
6
8
1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct
m/s
Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
5
Goal Plots for Windspeed September October
Nor
ther
n Lo
uisi
ana
Sout
hern
Lou
isia
na
6
Wind Direction at Northern Sites
060120180240300360
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug
de
gObserved/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir
060120180240300360
1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep
de
g
Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir
060120180240300360
1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct
de
g
Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir
7
Wind Direction at Southern Sites
060120180240300360
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug
de
gObserved/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir
060120180240300360
1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep
de
g
Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir
060120180240300360
1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct
de
g
Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir
8
Goal Plots for Wind Direction/Speed September October
Nor
ther
n Lo
uisi
ana
Sout
hern
Lou
isia
na
9
Temperature at Northern Sites
280
290
300
310
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug
KObserved/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp
280
290
300
310
1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep
K
Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp
280
290
300
310
1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct
K
Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp
10
Temperature at Southern SitesAu
gust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
280
290
300
310
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug
K
Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp
280
290
300
310
1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep
K
Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp
280
290
300
310
1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct
K
Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp
11
Goal Plots for Temperature September October
Nor
ther
n Lo
uisi
ana
Sout
hern
Lou
isia
na
12
24-hour Precipitation on Exceedance Days
AHPS (observed) WRF (predicted)
Sept
embe
r 13
Sept
embe
r 14
13
24-hour Precipitation on Exceedance Days AHPS (observed) WRF (predicted)
Sept
embe
r 16
Sept
embe
r 17
14
Summary
• Southern LA– September: performance was very good for all three variables– October: daytime wind speed and temperatures were slightly under
predicted Could lead to excessive stagnation and higher ozone
• Northern LA– Performance was slightly but consistently worse– Daytime wind speeds and temperatures were also under estimated
• Overall– Wind were markedly better than usually achieved in other WRF
applications across the country– Temperature performance was on par with other applications– Precipitation performance was quite good
Did not exhibit the usually high degree of over prediction
15
Extra Slides
16
Regression Analysis for Windspeed September October
Nor
ther
n Lo
uisi
ana
Sout
hern
Lou
isia
na
17
Regression Analysis for Wind Direction September October
Nor
ther
n Lo
uisi
ana
Sout
hern
Lou
isia
na
18
Regression Analysis for Temperature September October
Nor
ther
n Lo
uisi
ana
Sout
hern
Lou
isia
na