tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in latvia
DESCRIPTION
Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia. Zane Cunska Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia. Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work SessionApril 29 2010 / Lisbon. Content. Tertiary education in Latvia: facts and situation - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia
Zane Cunska Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia
Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work Session April 29 2010 / Lisbon
![Page 2: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Content Tertiary education in Latvia: facts and
situation Projection methods Scenarios
Stable enrollment ratio scenario Global education trend scenario Crisis scenario
Results Conclusions
![Page 3: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Population (15-24y) projections, LV
Source: EUROPOP2008, Eutostat
![Page 4: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Student population in LV In 2009 for the first time Latvia has
experienced significant fall In total enrolment: : minus 10,2%; In first year undergraduate: minus 26% in
comparison to previous year
![Page 5: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Age-specific student ratios in LV (1998-2010)
![Page 6: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Methods Enrolment-ratio method Age-specific enrolment ratio Ext=rxt Txt , based
on Eurostat population projections Txt Ratio development trends rxt
Three development scenarios Stable enrollment ratio Global education trend Crisis
![Page 7: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio Tertiary education developing smoothly into the
future, only changes arise from the differences in cohort size.
Assumes: proportion of students in the respective overall age
cohort will continue to change in the same average speed and direction as over the previous period (1998-2010)
Transition rates and dropout rates will change at an average annual rate of change experienced in the observation period
ln(Y/Y(t-1)) = alpha/trend i.e., extrapolate the observed trends over the years 1998-2010, using the OLS and putting a constraint that the growth converges to zero when time converges to infinity
![Page 8: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio All trends positive
or virtually constant
Growth in ratio of younger students (20-23) and non-traditional student age group (29-39)
Proportions of students in 24-28 and 40-plus age groups remain stable at 2010 level
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios
![Page 9: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio Total number of students
in tertiary education will decrease from 113 thousands in 2010 to 92 thousands in 2020 (minus 20%)
Most severe decline in the 18-24 years student groups – by 44%
Proportion of “traditional” age students will decrease from 64% in 2010 to 44% in 2020,
Size of older age student groups (29-39 and 40 plus) will remain stable
Share of older age students (over 29) will increase from 24% to 44%
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education
![Page 10: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Scenarios – Global education trend Takes into account the schooling pattern
across European countries and assumes that the lifestyle and study patterns in Latvia and EU converge.
Assumes: The 2011-2020 enrolment ratio structure for
Latvia is converge to that of EU-27 ln(Y/Tt-1) = B(Yt-1-Yav) i.e., the age-specific enrolment rates Y will
converge to the EU-27 average, the speed being dependent on the size of the difference between the rate at t-1 and Yav
![Page 11: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Scenarios – Global education trend The enrolment ratios
in EU-27 have been gradually raising in period 1998-2005, and stabilized since 2005
They are generally lower that Latvian 2010 rates
Consequently, all but 25 and 26 year-old rate trends are negative
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2100) age-year specific enrolment ratios
![Page 12: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Scenarios – Global education trend Decline in enrolment at all
ages - minus 38% compared to 2010
Total enrolment in 2020 fall to 1998 level (70 thousand students)
More than 50% reduction in traditional age student numbers (from 72 to 35 thousands).
13% fall (from 17 to 15 thousands) in the older age (29 plus) students
Student population will be older and the proportion of non-traditional students (older than 25) in the total student population will increase to 50% in contrast to 36% in 2010
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education
![Page 13: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Scenarios - Crisis Designed to capture the effects, that do not follow
from statistics, but can be concluded from literature on historical development in other countries,
Subjective - author’s and expert opinions based scenario
Broad age groups Assumes: Age Assumption
17-24 Enrolment rate is at the pre-crisis level (2008) for 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013.
25-28 Enrolment rate increases by 15% compared to 2008 for following 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013.
29 plus
Enrolment rate remains constant over following 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013.
![Page 14: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Scenarios - Crisis Crisis would have a
short-term positive impact on enrolment rates that will slightly increase above the 2010 level and stay there between 2011 and 2013
Rise in the 25-28 age student enrolment
After the 2013 enrolment rates fall approaching the EU-27 level
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios
![Page 15: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Scenarios - Crisis Total number of students
in the period 2011-2013 would increase compared to 2009 and 2010 level
The total number of young students would not be as high as before
The 25-28 years and 29 plus student group is expected to remain roughly the same size throughout the entire period 2000-2020
Total number of students in 2020 will fall to 81 thousands, less than half (47%) of the students being in the “traditional” age
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education
![Page 16: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Summary1998 2010 2020
Actual enrolment SER GET CRI
Total 70233 112555 92152 69434 80841
Proportions of age groups in total number of students
17-24 73% 64% 44% 50% 47%
25-28 16% 13% 12% 16% 17%
29 plus 11% 24% 44% 33% 36%
Total number of students in tertiary education according to three alternative scenarios
![Page 17: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Conclusions HE system in front of big changes Inexperienced situation Under any development scenario the total
enrolment is very likely to fall (decrease by 18-38%)
The big number of higher education institutions cannot be sustained
Foreign students are unlikely to fully compensate for decrease of cohorts
![Page 18: Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56812d15550346895d91fd31/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Thank you!