tesco supplier total forecasting guide 2018 · seasons at tesco can include anything from easter,...

Tesco Supplier Total Forecasting Guide 2018 Supplier Training Manual UK May 2018

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Supplier Training May 2018

Introduction to the guide: This is a forecasting guide created for suppliers by suppliers, as part of the Tesco Supplier Reps project group.

This guide is an overview of how to forecast different aspects of your Tesco account and can be used by any size supplier across the majority of packaged & fresh suppliers.

Whilst different suppliers will have different processes for forecasting, this guide tries to apply a one size fits all approach.

We hope you find this guide a useful insight into how to work with Tesco to create a robust and accurate forecast, which will ultimately deliver great availability for the customer.

Your Supplier Reps Team


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Forecasting Guide Contents:

Base Forecasting 4

Seasonal Forecasting 9

Promotional Forecasting 13

PFU Forecasting 15

Events & Overlays Forecasting 20

New Launch & Range Change Forecasting 23

Frequently Asked Questions 27


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Base forecasting: What is base forecast?

The base forecast is the forecast calculated from the base demand before any other factors, such as promotional or seasonal impacts, are accounted for.

Calculating Base Forecast:

Calculating the base rate for a SKU can be done by finding the average expected sales per store and multiplying by the number of stores the SKU is ranged in. This can be done by the following method.

1. Historic data

Use the Data Download – Sales and Stock report on TescoLink, or the UKROI Packaged Stock and Sales or UK Weekly Fresh Data (as appropriate) reports on Visual Insights to find the historic weekly Electronic Point of Sale (EPOS) data over a period. Ideally this period would be a full year to cover all seasonal changes in customer buying patterns, but there are some circumstances when it would make more sense to take a shorter period, e.g. if the SKU hasn’t been in the range for a full year or if RSP has changed.

Guides on how to use TescoLink and Visual Insights can be found at https://partnerstoolkit.tesco.com/toolkit/


https://partnerstoolkit.tesco.com/toolkit/

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2. Account for Variances (e.g. Seasonality)

Analyse the historic EPOS data for any seasonal variances not driven by promotional or feature space activity. If, for example, there is a large difference in average ROS between autumn and winter compared with spring and summer (as might be the case with ice-cream, for example), it might make sense to look at these periods separately and have a separate base rate for each.

When planning seasonal SKUs that are not fixed (cough/cold season, BBQ weather, etc.), it is advised to have two separate base rates. One “in season”, and one “out of season”. Particular attention will need to be paid to when the seasons change to accommodate for pipe fill, or indeed running down of stock.

For more information on seasonal variances, see the below section on Seasonal Forecasting.

Any weeks when there were supply issues should be excluded if they had a significant negative impact to service level, as EPOS may have been effected.

3. Distribution (range)

The historic data can be used to find the average weekly rate of sale (ROS) per store of a SKU. Exclude periods when the SKU was on promotion or on feature space.

Take the total sales in each week and divide by the total number of stores this SKU was ranged in per week to get the average ROS per store for this SKU. Then take the average of all these values.


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4. Forward base forecast

Now that the historic average ROS per store is known, the forward base forecast can be calculated. Take the historic average ROS per store and multiply this by the number of stores this SKU will be ranged in as advised by Tesco, either at launch or at the most recent range reset. This gives the overall expected average weekly ROS. For the weekly base forecast, be sure to multiply by the number of stores the SKU is ranged in on a week by week basis to capture any changes due to any upcoming range resets.

5. Expected New ROS

Now that the base rate has been calculated, adjust the forward base forecast to account for any seasonal variances as noted in step 2.

Step by Step Guide

i. Get past sales by week from Visual Insights. ii. Pick a window between range changes and exclude everything

outside this window. iii. Exclude any weeks when this SKU was on promotion or feature

space – see Promotional Forecasting section of this guide for information on promotional forecasts.

iv. Exclude any weeks when service level was low. v. Check for any obvious seasonality. If there are any periods of

seasonality, consider these separately vi. Calculate the cases per store by week across this period of time. vii. Take weekly sales and divide by number of stores the SKU is ranged

in. viii. Take the average sales per store per week.


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ix. Multiply the average sales per store per week by the number of stores the SKU is ranged in going forward to get this SKU’s base forecast.

x. If you separated periods for seasonality, the base forecast will be for future similar seasons.

Things to think about for base forecast When looking at historic data, check Visual Insights to see what the

service level has been tracking at as this will highlight if there were any supply issues at the time. If service was poor, the forecast will need to take this into account and be increased.

Why isn't store demand consistent?

If a similar SKU is out of stock, SKUs may get increased facing to fill the gap on shelf and this can lead to increased sales, therefore increasing demand.

If a SKU is on promotion, it could lead to reduced sales on similar SKUs, therefore reducing store demand.

Other supermarkets might have a better deal on the same or similar SKUs, therefore reducing Tesco’s stock requirement as shoppers buy from elsewhere.

Demand could increase if a SKU gains loyal customers who try it when it’s on offer and then continue to buy when full price.

A SKU’s RSP could change, which may have an impact on ROS.

Why don't depots order the same volume each week?

Stock holding initiatives which aim to reduce stock in depot will have a knock on impact and reduce orders over a short period e.g. at year end when stock holding needs to be kept to a minimum.


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When committed volume is loaded it can cause a spike in orders. A required order might not get raised due to a depot being at

capacity for goods in. On slower moving lines one pallet might cover more than one

week stock requirement, so orders will be managed to balance stock.

If another SKU in the same procurement group is required, for example, for a promotion, the system might miss a SKU off the order as it wouldn’t be worth raising orders for another full truck.

Why might a supplier change their forecast on a SKU with a consistent ROS?

Even if a SKU's rate of sale is consistent, we may need to reduce/remove forecast due to delays to production. Depending on the length of the delay, this may then cause increased orders when back in stock

In some circumstances it may be required to force stock into Tesco's depots above base demand. For example when there is older stock yet to be ordered and a new design due to pack

Streaming change (should average out over a period but day to day pattern could change)


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Seasonal Forecasting: Seasons at Tesco can include anything from Easter, Spring, Summer, Mother’s Day, Valentines, Father’s Day, Cold & Flu…the list goes on. Each category at Tesco will handle seasonal forecasting in different ways but the principle is the same across Tesco.

Seasonal buying is often based of a fixed pre-agreed buy volume which is bought in increments across a period of time during that season. This guide will look at how to forecast for fixed pre-agreed buy volumes using the Impulse Confectionary category as an example.

For Christmas, in the impulse category, there is a fixed buy start date and a fixed depot dead date by which all supplier goods must be in the Tesco depots. So naturally you would then divide your fixed buy across the number of ordering days you have in a season, however, some events often have separate capsule and main launches which require an increased volume of stock to fill shelves.

Flowchart of the Seasonal process:


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Buying Patterns and Forecast impact.

Above is the hypothetical data that is in the graph and shows the volume movements in Buying and EPOS, to add context.

Flat Phased Buying – This is often done for ease of forecasting and to ensure a constant level of stock flows into the Tesco warehouse. This is much more common for seasonal events such as with cold & flu seasons for medication where there is no end peak or end event.

Buying Curve – This is done to ensure stock is brought into depot in line with demand and is most common with seasons that have an event end such as Easter and Christmas, where the end date is fixed. You can see from the example above that the Buying Curve line spikes precede a spike in EPOS. This would be driven by events in store, such as with W5 (Tesco Week 5, circled in red above) where there was a small launch of the products which caused a spike in EPOS. As this spike was anticipated it was preceded by a spike in the volume Tesco bought in.


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Things to think about for seasonal forecasting:

The basics: The four most important things to do when forecasting for seasons is to 1) Analyse historic EPOS & Buying patterns 2) Visualise your forecast in a similar way to the prior example 3) Stay close to your Tesco contact to understand how Tesco are planning to buy for the future season and 4) to understand that forecasting is not an exact science and needs to be continuously worked on for accuracy.

Grouping: Products in the same sub-group will be bought in similar patterns. For example if you have a group of products under the Tesco sub-group “G78EH : XMAS CHOC TREE DECS” the buy-in pattern for these are going to look very similar and will only differ by absolute buy volumes or pallet configuration.

Rounding: Tesco minimal amount ordered will usually be equal to how many cases are on a pallet (Pallet configuration). In the chart example on the previous page you can see some weeks were only 10 cases are bought in and this is because that is how many cases are on one pallet. This is due to the pallet rounding effect.

Pallet rounding & Truck rounding can cause seasonal spikes.


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The picture on the previous page is a visualisation of what an order looks like once it’s been pallet and then truck rounded. Tesco may only need or want to buy 100 cases (The Raw order) but if a pallet has 30 cases on then, then Tesco will need to buy four pallets worth which is 120 cases. Then depending on which sub-group you product is in and if you do mixed trucks (seasonal and all year round) then the pallets will be rounded up to fill a whole truck. This is done for efficiency of trucks, so that there are not thousands of half full trucks taking up space in the depot networks. You can find more about this from the “Delivering the Basics Brilliantly” guide on the Tesco Supplier Tool Kit.

Connect: Three week Tesco Connect accuracy at seasonal times can be more volatile and so forecasting using this guide’s notes is important. This will give you control and, more importantly, visibility of ordering patterns. It is always worth looking back at last year’s or last season’s Connect accuracy to see if any patterns stand out. If you can highlight a pattern bias where Connect Forecast is always 10% higher than orders, you can bring this to the attention of your Tesco contact who can look into it, and you can take this into account when forecasting.


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Promotional Forecasting: This guide covers the end-to-end process of working alongside Tesco in forecasting promotional volume from initial planning to execution.

Offers are agreed (through nominations process) by commercial teams in Tesco / supplier and loaded by trading into NBS (New Buying System)

NBS then feeds the information into CP (Central Promotions)

CP generate a forecast for the promotion based on previous history and suitable similar timings

Where a forecast cannot be automatically assigned by CP systems then CP team will by exception apply their manual forecast

Promotions manager independently produces sales forecasts for upcoming promotions (with space assigned) and sends these to supplier, ca. 1-3 periods ahead and agrees buy-in plan (base volumes

NBS


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are automatically included, so the agreed forecasts represent a ‘total’)

Supplier verifies the sales forecast with commercial counterparts and either confirms back alignment to Tesco forecast or reverts with any challenges / builds (any supplier-generated incremental activity such as TV / press advertising coinciding with the promotion should be factored in)

An effective way to ensure alignment is to underpin the above with monthly meetings with Tesco / supplier where commercial and supply are represented and to firm up plans for short term horizon / discuss medium – long term plans

Once Tesco / supplier are aligned on forecasts the supplier needs to verify in Tesco Connect that the promotion has been loaded for the correct dates and that, where needed, a spike in demand ahead of the go-live is visible in Tesco Connect

Supplier should flag back to Tesco Proms Mgr if the forecast in Connect differs substantially from what has been agreed.

After go-live Tesco Proms Mgr sends supplier day 1 sales (EPOS) and extrapolated revised total period sales forecast, supplier to flag urgently if any issues are expected in supplying a higher forecast.

The above is repeated at day 5.

In between, at day 3, Tesco central ordering system will start to order based upon actual sales (rather than ordering off a promotional forecast).


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Pre-Filled Unit (PFU) Forecasting Guide: Other terms for a PFU include: Off Feature Display (OFD), Merchandised Unit (MU), Quarter Pallet (QP), Shipper, and Front Store Display Unit (FSDU). Forecasting for each is very similar.

PFU’s are used in-store as a cost effective way of increasing shelf space to improve product availability for the customer. PFU’s are often a second siting for a product or products within a store. A PFU will help to increase the Rate of Sale for a product within a store and so are a useful tool to help suppliers boost their sales. In order to forecast for a PFU you will need sales data by store and by product, which is available to all Suppliers through Tesco Link.

PFU’s must meet specific guidelines in order to go into store. For specific information on how to build, design or create a PFU, please refer to the PFU guides on the Supplier Tool Kit. Our guide will concentrate on how to forecast for a PFU both within your supplier organisation and also with Tesco. Tesco run all potential displays through a ‘Tool’ and this decides how many displays a store gets based on sales. This guide will help you to do the same thing.

Overview of the PFU forecasting process: (starting from Display Concept)

There are a number of different things to think about when going through the forecasting process. Some points are highlighted on the next page. We will then go on to work through the process of forecasting a PFU in practice.


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Display Concept: What size will the display be? (OFD, QP, Pallet). What format is the display going in? (Express or Main Estate). Express usually has a lower Rate of Sale than Main Estate, so a display in Express may have to have a smaller fill.

In-Store Dates: Tesco promo period dates can be found on the Promo Calendar on Partners Toolkit. Will the display be in store across a standard Tesco period? Will it be going into store across more than one Promo Period? If your display is proposed for more than one promo period, some Promotions & Events managers will look at each promo period’s sales separately but you can always request for it to be looked at as one whole period.

Product Selection: How many products are you planning on the display? Are there any NPD in your selection? What is the proposed promo mechanic** of the product? Has your product been on display before? If so, was it at the same mechanic as you are proposing this time? Are these the best products to put on display?

Historic Data: Historic sales data is available to all supplier on Tesco Link. Tesco Link can only go back 8 weeks into the past sales data. You will be looking at sales volume data by store for each of the products on the display. If your products are new you can base sales on a similar product or you can ask for them to be exempt from the Tesco tool. The data doesn’t have to be from the same time as the year before and can be from any period in which you had the products on promotion last. Tesco will look at sales data from the last two years and see where you had a similar mechanic and use that data. You can request what period of data they use for their tool. You will need to know what Tesco period & Tesco weeks your displays is going into store. Example: for Grocery, in 2018, Tesco Period 10 (P10) starts on 05/09 to 25/09, this covers Tesco weeks 28-30 (not completely but best fit weeks).

**Pricing remains at the sole discretion of the retailer.


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Once you know all of the above, you can then start to forecast. The points above will help you to build a robust forecast for your display.

Analyse: When Tesco forecast for displays, they use a program which is often referred to as the “tool”. The tool is an excel program which runs your specific combination of sales volume data, stores on stack list and time period through it to come out with a number of displays which the combination of stores can sell through in the given period. A store must be able to sell through 80% of the fill of a display in order to have the display in store. So if your display has 10 cases in total on it, the store must be able to sell through 8 cases in the given time period. You are able to mimic this ahead of time, using your proposed fill data and understanding of the basic working of the “tool”.

Create an excel document and divide sales volume by display fill of your display (either in cases or units) and do this by store. Example: You have a display with two products on and is in store for P1 in 2018. You had the same display in store on P1 last year. Download the three weeks of data from Tesco Link. Then sum all data for that time period together into one sales number for the whole period.

TPNB of Product 1

TPNB of Product 2

Qty of Product 1 on

display

Qty of Product 2 on

display

Store Number

Product 1 sales volume

in cases

Product 2 sales volume

in cases

100 cases (80% of 100

is 80)

200 cases (80% of 200

is 160)

Total displays

2000 200 200 2 (200/80) 1 (200/160) 1 2001 50 50 0 (50/80) 0 (50/160) 0 2002 100 100 1 (100/80) 0 (100/160) 0

Store 2000 would get one display as it can sell through 80% of both product 1 & 2 on the display. Store 2002 can sell through 80% of product 1 but not product 2, so it can’t have a display. If you do this for every store in the Tesco estate, you will get a clear picture of how


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many displays you are likely to get. You can’t send more than one type of display with the same fill to a store at a time, so if a store can sell more than one PFU you can send them into store in waves during the period. In some categories, there is a maximum number of displays a store can have. If you exceed this maximum, you may need to look at whether your display needs to have a bigger fill.

Stack List: Do you have the list of stores you have the display in yet? (Not essential at this point). Running sales only for the stores in which you have space will obviously give you the most robust forecast. If you don’t have this, run sales for all stores in your chosen format. If you already have previous or current stack store lists, you can run sales data for each set of stores and see which stack list gives you the optimum number of displays and you can ask your commercial team to request this space. This is not a guarantee.

What happens if the tool says no?

If you don’t get any displays when you run the sales data, it’s not the end of the road.

Refine: If you did the same display last year, you could add uplifts to your sales data. Increase the volume sales by XX% before running the data back through your tool? Off-shelf space will give your products an increased ROS so this is a reasonable step to take. If a store is being held back by just one line on the display or by just one case short of the 80% rule, highlight those stores affected and negotiate with your Tesco contact to send a display to store that store anyway.

Change Fill: Is one of the products on the display or the number of cases of a product holding back any stores from getting a display? Can you change the fill, number of cases or mix of products on the display? If so, change the fill, re-run the data and see if the outcome changes.


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Connect:

Display orders are entered into the Tesco order system usually 1 or 2 days before they are ordered and so Connect will not give an accurate prior view of orders. You can request depot splits from Tesco ahead of displays being ordered. This split will help you align truck forecasting by letting you know how many displays a depot is going to order.

Other points to think about?

Can you do any sampling or in-store activation? This will potentially increase your ROS in those stores, so you can uplift your sales data accordingly.

Did any Supply & Delivery constraints affect getting your last displays into a certain group of stores last time you sent it in? Did a delivery failure into depot cause your display to arrive late into store last time? You can ask for that store or store to be exempt for the tool because of this.

Do you have a field team? If so, they can make sure you have perfect day one compliance and this will help to maximise sales and so help you next time you send in a display. Does having a field team rep in a store boost help maximise your products sales? Then if your field team visit a store they don’t usually visit, will this store see boosted sales? Can you pre-apply any potential uplift to your data before it goes through a tool?

If your display contains NPD, you can ask for the NPD SKU to be removed when running the display through the tool, as it will not have accurate data to compare it to. If the display is majority NPD, you could request a trial of one display per store. This will trial the display in every store, so the next time you send it in you will have robust store sales data, so you can send it stores you are certain will sell 80% or more of the fill.


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Overlays & Events Forecasting: Review annual planned events / overlays likely to impact category.

Review scale / locality of event and historical impact on demand.

Dependent on lead time, calculate key week(s) to phase forecast to ensure stock is available at key times.

Compare internal forecast with number provided by Tesco – highlight any discrepancies. These should broadly be in line before orders

commence.

Review performance of event vs forecast for future, record circumstances which may have had an additional impact

To find out what events are key to your category request information from your Promotions & Events Manager. Looking at historical data gives a good indication of when ad hoc events are likely to be repeated (e.g. Drinks Festivals) or the impact of non-annual sporting events like the World Cup.

Phasing is important especially for long lead time suppliers to ensure stock is available and in place at the right time

Connect at 3 weeks out can be used as a strong indicator of expected orders but should not be relied upon as sole basis of forecast. If patterns regularly emerge of discrepancies between Connect & actual orders, these should be highlighted to Tesco.


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Events at Tesco

Any event which impacts 10 or more stores is deemed to be a National Event and forecasts are consolidated by National Event Planners. There are c80 National Events each year, specific information on events having the most significant category impact can be obtained from your Promotions & Events Manager.

National events include bank holidays, cultural holidays and even payday weekends. Supplier influence on some of the more generic, longer events is negligible so concentrate on events with the largest volume implications to your category.

Local Event Planners forecast changes for impacts to a small number of stores. There are over 350 local impacts ranging from sporting events (Cup Finals) to local bank holidays (Up Helly Aa) to festivals (Glastonbury, Leeds and Reading).

Tesco will consider historical data when creating their forecast and will band products together based on similar performance.

Important factor to consider

Events at certain time in the year resonate differently with customers. E.g. a Drinks Festival nearer to Christmas. Not all historical events can be compared like for like.

Be aware that events falling at the end of a promotional period will have lower uptake than at the start. Watch out for events like Mother’s Day falling on the first or last weekend of the promo period.

Non annual events e.g. Olympics, World Cup are unpredictable and will vary significantly – work with your Promotions & Events Manager to plan effectively.


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Overlays Forecasting (Buy 6 save 25%)

Buy 6 save 25% wine overlays are similar to events in that they can last anywhere between 4 days and 2 weeks. Suppliers with access to AXIS will see overlay volume appear in their forecast 16 weeks in advance.

The majority of wine volume comes into Tesco on a long lead time. This means that the accuracy of the forecasts is critically important to manage availability and stock holding throughout the overlay period.

Due to the long lead times, 100% of the forecast is ordered before the event starts. This means there is no opportunity to react to the actual sales during the promotion.

If forecasts are too high:

100% of the stock will be delivered to Tesco, and will pose a stock holding risk to budget.

If forecast are too low:

The shortest of the long lead times is 2 weeks and as most ‘buy 6 save 25%’ periods also don’t last longer than 2 weeks this means there is likely no opportunity to raise extra orders to cover any shortfall.

Product level forecasts for these events should be formulated and agreed collaboratively between the supplier collaboration manager, the buyer and the supplier.

AXIS provides the best volume indication and should be used as the basis for long lead time suppliers’ production plans. For shorter lead time suppliers’ use Tesco Connect.


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New Launch and Range Change Forecasts

Teams involved in Tesco Range change process:

Commercial (Buyers) and Space, Range and Display (SRD) teams- build and initiate the Ranging process. Involvement week -20 until week -9

The Range Change Team within Supply Chain deliver the successful implementation in store. Their Involvement begins at week -6

You may need to make volume assumptions prior to official

communication from Tesco for NPD or Range extension for internal planning purposes.

The below forecast theory can be used.


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Quick points

Don’t expect de-listed lines to be taken after week -5 Always plan extensions and new lines to be available week -3,

orders will be expected to be in depot week -2 Communicate with your supply chain Range change team

contact any issues you have with forecasts and stocks ASAP.

Steps you can take to improve forecasts for Range Changes

Be aware of extensions/ space increases. Focus tends to be on new lines but the impact to your service level and the success of the launch can depend on all elements being right first time.

-9 Liaise with your commercial contacts to understand the changes to the range, Tesco should be able to share sign-off at -9.

-9 Tesco will create the store Planograms at Store Cluster level (Similar Size and format groups) to increase accuracy of shelf fill which may cause differences.

Use Connect to check as a daily tool in the run up to and during range, ensure what has been communicated -5 is playing through as expected pre-Range change, feel confident to flag any discrepancies ASAP.

New Lines

The process used to calculate the volume required to launch lines is as follows:

Dunnhumby product data is used by Tesco to group similar products at a granular level.

Tesco’s range system looks at the historical range to analyse the sales distribution compared to the space each product was previously allocated.

Each product is then given a set number of shelf facings A New Line tool creates a base forecast. The tool details weekly

forecast as well as shelf fill to generate the total volume required.


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Communication from Tesco Range team on volumes and distribution week -5

Ensure you have enough stock cover to support (allow additional stock for any pallet rounding)

Monitor Tesco Forecast in connect daily once live week -3

Supplier Forecast Action – Delist

The first stage of a successful range change is ensuring the timely rundown of delisted stock. The Tesco internal Discontinued Tool reviews depot/store stock and average weekly sales as well as existing forecasts to predict how long stock will last in stores.

Ensure any supplier delists are communicated to Tesco week -20

Tesco confirms delist lines as part of their review week -10 - Excess stock to be communicated ASAP (specifically own label or exclusives) so you can agree correct run-down process

Supply chain place final orders for discontinued lines raised week-5 as final store pushes in week -4

Supplier Forecast Action – Extensions

If a line is gaining distribution and/ or space in store, there can be a substantial increase in demand for a current line. Once the new forecasts have been sense checked and signed off by operations they are loaded onto Tesco Connect. Tesco confirms extensions week-10

Review the increased forecast calculation by Tesco week - 9

Ensure you have sufficient stock levels to support the increased forecast and flag to Range team if this is an issue.

Monitor Tesco Forecast in Connect daily as you approach go-live date


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Supplier Forecast Action – Reductions

If a line is losing range points and/ or space in store, you may see reduction in orders or changes to distribution groups and warehouse streaming.

Consider how your forecast might reduce in line with these changes and manage stocks carefully

If you supply into a consolidator be mindful of BBE and stockholding


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Frequently Asked Questions: Below are some of the most frequent questions and comments that we received from Suppliers prior to making this guide. Here we have answered question that our guide may not have covered.

Forecast Vs Actuals Ordered: (Connect isn’t always 100% accurate)

Forecast Accuracy can be calculated by Suppliers using the data already available in the data section of the current Connect Portal. You can download forecasted and actual ordered volumes by SKU and by day in the “Order Forecast & History” report. You can use this to assess how accurate Connect is for your products and address any trends with your contact at Tesco.

Connect 2.0 Project: (Forecast visibility, Long lead time etc.)

A lot of the question that were addressed to the forecast project will be answered by the Connect 2.0 project, another Supplier Reps project. The Connect 2.0 project covers things like advanced visibility of forecasts.

Forecasting Critical Pathway: (Promo’s are loaded late, Promo confirmation needs to be earlier etc.)

The Forecasting Critical pathway can be found on the Partner Toolkit or can be requested from you Tesco Contact. It is in the best interests of Tesco & Supplier that this is adhered to. If there are delays in the pathway, make sure you are communicating about this and its impacts with Tesco to help them address any issues and help everyone return to the timeline.


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Other Questions:

Question – Answer

Would like to understand the rationale behind seasonality increases/ decreases. Dependent on category but there will be variations, best to discuss with you promotions manager prior to season – discuss percentage of “pipe fill” for a season.

Who to contact if issues are visible? Promotions Managers are the first point of contact or whoever you got your promotional volumes confirmed by. Also try the Collaboration Manager for base volume.

How does promotional forecasting happen – additional to base or does it include base? –Yes, promotional forecasting will be inclusive of base and given as one total number. (Made up of base + promo uplift).

Tesco contacts can be very reliant on computer forecasting systems e.g. waiting for Connect to update forecasts – It’s about reassurance and communication, call out any issues to your contact and make sure you are aligned, then at least you are in the loop even if Connect is not.

How can suppliers improve communication so they can plan for peaks/ seasonal demand – It’s about prior planning yourself before you go in to Tesco. Go in with a plan or idea of where variances are, don’t go in and only rely on Tesco to give you all the answers. Set up regular meetings pre-season to plan for the seasons and post-season to review and wash-up.

Who to contact with queries regarding base on shelf only deals? –Each category in Tesco will have a Supplier Collaboration Manager who can help you with this.


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How can we compare promo forecast to shelf fill to have more clarity on buy in? –You can request shelf fill from Tesco, then you are able to investigate yourself.

Impact of competitor activity in base forecast. No visibility = can’t plan = excess stocks and waste – Information cannot be shared by Tesco due to commercial sensitivity – You can however check Tesco.com or Brandview to see current promotions.

Forecast lead time to match true production lead time – Dependent on supplier production – make your contact aware of your production constraints and work with them to make a bespoke timeline.

Collaborate more with the suppliers – Collaboration Manager are Key to this, make sure you have a good working relationship with them.

Review of monthly forecast to help accuracy – You can do this with your collaboration or promotions manager. Supplier Performance Packs on Connect already work out all the data and details for you. You can currently find these right at the bottom of the data tab of Connect.

Overlay promos into the forecast to ensure they are captured – Axis has now started doing this. The Connect 2.0 project has more on this.

Sales and forecast from store level to build forecast – store sales can be downloaded from Tesco Link.

How is shelf promo volume calculated? What is the logic behind it? – Check Connect as usually you don’t collaborate on shelf only promo volume. The Future Promotions report on Connect will have a forecast for this.


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Supplier Reps Team: This forecasting guide was created by suppliers from across the Tesco business in order to help all suppliers achieve great forecast accuracy.

Your Supplier Team (From left to right): Alex Brandwood, Nicola Hoey, Malin Elliott, Michelle Johnson, Caroline Holworthy, Jonathon Beckett, James Schorah and Jason Gay.

Helping us from the Tesco side, Lauren Brady and Veronica Winch.


tesco supplier total forecasting guide 2018 · seasons at tesco can include anything from easter,...

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