testimony and exhibits of frank j. hollewa on behalf …

STATE OF MICHIGAN

BEFORE THE MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

* * * * *

In the Matter of the Application of )CONSUMERS ENERGY COMPANY )for a Reconciliation of Gas Cost Recovery ) Case No. U-15041-RCosts and Revenues for the 12-month )period April 2007 through March 2008 and a )Reconciliation of pension and OPEB )costs for 2006 and 2007 )_________________________________________ )

TESTIMONY AND EXHIBITS OF FRANK J. HOLLEWA

ON BEHALF OF

THE RESIDENTIAL RATEPAYER CONSORTIUM

February 3, 2009

TESTIMONY

FRANK J. HOLLEWA

CONSUMERS ENERGY COMPANY

MPSC CASE NO. U-15041-R

1 Q. PLEASE STATE YOUR NAME, OCCUPATION, AND ADDRESS.

2 A. My name is Frank J. Hollewa. I am an independent energy consultant doing

3 business as EPEC (Energy Planning and Engineering Consultants). My office is

4 at 6182 Grovedale Court, Suite 100, Alexandria, Virginia 22310.

5 Q. PLEASE SUMMARIZE YOUR PROFESSIONAL AND EMPLOYMENT

6 EXPERIENCE.

7 A. I was employed by Washington Gas Light Company for 33 years. At the time of my

8 retirement, I held the position of Senior Vice President of Distribution, Gas Supply and

9 General Services. The responsibilities of this position included the repair, installation

10 and maintenance of all transmission and distribution facilities; system design; system

11 control; gas supply planning; gas acquisition; peak shaving plants; storage field; total

12 energy facilities; Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) related matters;

13 interface with interstate pipelines; general structures maintenance and improvements;

14 fleet acquisition and maintenance; and interface with the Public Service Commissions

15 in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia relating to operating matters. The

16 total scope of my position encompassed approximately 50% of all employees at

17 Washington Gas Light. Much of my knowledge and experience was obtained on the job

18 at Washington Gas Light. I was employed there in 1963 at the age of 19 as a union

2

1 grade clerk in the Gas Supply Department. As my knowledge and

2 responsibilities increased, I moved to Staff Assistant; Staff Supervisor; Assistant to the

3 Vice President, Gas Supply; and in 1982 at the age of 38, I became Vice President, Gas

4 Supply. At that time, the Gas Supply Department had more than 250 employees and

5 represented approximately 10% of the Company manpower.

6 During the period from 1970 to 1995, I participated as an expert witness in

7 approximately 20 formal rate proceedings at the Maryland Public Service Commission

8 ("PSC"), District of Columbia PSC, Virginia State Corporation Commission, and the

9 FERC. I was well known throughout the gas industry and participated as a speaker and

10 panelist at numerous industry gatherings. I was on the Board of Directors of Associated

11 Gas Distributors ("AGD") and Gas Industry Standards Board ("GISB") as well as a

12 member of the Institute of Gas Technology ("IGT") Task Force on Gas Quality at the

13 time of my retirement.

14 For the past thirteen years, I have operated EPEC consulting. During that time, I have

15 participated in numerous cases for the New Jersey Division of the Ratepayer Advocate,

16 the Ohio Consumers' Counsel, the West Virginia Consumer Advocate Division, and the

17 Michigan Residential Ratepayer Consortium. I have participated in all of Consumers

18 Energy Company’s GCR Plan and Reconciliation Cases since 1999. I have also

19 participated in the GCR Plan and Reconciliation cases of Michigan’s three other largest

20 gas distribution companies in that same period.

21 Q. WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF YOUR TESTIMONY?

22 A. I have been retained by the Residential Ratepayer Consortium ("RRC") to make an

3

1 independent analysis and evaluation of the gas cost reconciliation filing made by

2 Consumers Energy Company (“Consumers” or the “Company”) for the 12-month

3 period March 31, 2008.

4 Q. WHAT DOCUMENTS HAVE YOU REVIEWED AND ANALYZED IN THIS

5 CASE?

6 A. I have reviewed the Company's 2007-2008 GCR Plan filing (Case No. U-15041), the

7 GCR Reconciliation filing (Case No. U-15041-R) and Consumers’ responses to data

8 requests from the RRC, the MPSC Staff and the Attorney General in this case.

9 Q. DID YOU ANALYZE THE COMPANY’S PURCHASING METHODS AND

10 FIXED PRICE COVERAGE?

11 A. Yes. Using the data provided by the Company in Exhibits A-9 and A-10, I created

12 Exhibit RRC-1 (FJH-1), Page 1. I also included Exhibit RRC-1 from Consumers’ 2006-

13 2007 GCR Reconciliation as Page 2 of Exhibit RRC-1 in this case.

14 Q. WHY DID YOU INCLUDE THE EXHIBIT FROM CASE NO. U-14716-R?

15 A. I included it to compare the results from the two GCR periods. Both periods had a 90%

16 cap on fixed price purchases and the Gas Purchasing Strategy Guidelines were very

17 similar. The only difference was that the Gas Purchasing Strategy Guidelines in Exhibit

18 A-2 in Case No. U-14716-R showed five target dates for annual fixed price coverage in

19 the 2006-2007 GCR period. Exhibit A-5 in this case shows two target dates for annual

20 fixed price coverage followed by two target dates for 5-month winter coverage

21 (November-March) in the 2007-2008 GCR period.

22 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN THE PURPOSE OF EXHIBIT RRC-1.

4

1 A. The Company’s Exhibit A-4 shows the Fixed Price Contract Coverage with the target

2 dates for meeting target coverage guidelines.

3 Exhibit A-7 shows Consumers’ Quartile Fixed Price Trigger Requirements and the

4 purchases made by the Company in the 2007-2008 GCR period to satisfy them.

5 Exhibit A-10 shows the details of all the actual purchases made by Consumers in the

6 2007-2008 GCR period.

7 Drawing on all this information, Exhibit RRC-1 shows the results of all the Company’s

8 purchase decisions for each month of the year. None of Consumers’ exhibits presents

9 this data in this format.

10 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN THE METHOD USED BY CONSUMERS AND YOUR

11 METHOD ON EXHIBIT RRC-1.

12 A. Purchases made by Consumers during bid week of the month preceding the actual

13 deliveries are “monthly purchases”. The Company considers such purchases as fixed

14 price purchases. It adds all other future fixed price purchases made to date to the

15 monthly purchases to develop the coverage percentage. For example, the 16,873 of

16 monthly purchases made at the end of March 2007 for April 2008 (shown on Exhibit

17 RRC-1, Page 1 on the April line under the Monthly column) are added to all existing

18 fixed price purchases in place for 2007-08 (10,590) to arrive at the Total fixed price

19 purchases of 27,463. These numbers show that the monthly purchases for April alone

20 (16,873) amounts to more than 7% of the annual fixed price purchases of 230,078

21 shown on the bottom right-hand corner of Exhibit RRC-1, Page 1.

22 Exhibit RRC-1 shows Consumers’ fixed price purchases made at least one month in

5

1 advance of the delivery month. For September, five single month purchases were made

2 on 7/31/07. For November, one single month purchase was made on 8/21/07. All other

3 fixed price purchases were for multiple months. The following breakdown shows the

4 period covered, number of purchases, and total fixed price volumes:

5 April - March 16 87,1086 April - January 1 4,5907 April - October 7 21,4008 August - September 1 6109 August - October 8 11,427

10 September 5 1,21511 September - October 5 4,61112 October - March 1 1,83013 November 1 60014 November - March 8 17,7991516 Total 53 151,190

17 SOURCE: Exhibit A-10

18 Once I identified the fixed price purchases, I then used the monthly total from Exhibit

19 A-9, Page 2 of 14, and subtracted the fixed price purchases to arrive at the monthly

20 purchases.

21 The monthly purchases also include the “Imbalance Gas/Misc Purch.” shown below

22 the monthly totals on Exhibit A-9.

23 I also confirmed the monthly purchases against the data on Exhibit A-9, Pages 3

24 through 14. The total of 151,190 shown above also agrees with Exhibit A-7, pages 3

25 and 4.

26 Q. DID CONSUMERS GAS PURCHASING STRATEGY GUIDELINES CHANGE

27 FROM 2006-2007 to 2007-2008?

6

1 A. Yes. It is important to understand the reason for the change in the target coverage dates

2 included in Consumers’ Gas Purchasing Strategy Guidelines from 2006-07 to 2007-08.

3 If the Company made a 15% fixed price purchase by 12/01 of the year preceding the

4 next April-March GCR period, then the 4/01 fixed price coverage target would only

5 require the additional fixed price purchase of 5% for the April - March period plus the

6 completion of April’s monthly purchases before 4/01 to reach the mid-point of the

7 target range. If the Company made a 20% fixed price purchase by 12/01, there would

8 be no need for any additional fixed price purchases to meet any of the targets except for

9 50% in the winter period. Since approximately 24% of the winter period target has

10 already been met by the 20% annual purchase prior to 4/01, the revised targets in the

11 2007-08 GCR Plan simply require an additional 13% by 7/01 and 13% by 10/15 for the

12 winter period to meet the minimum target guidelines. Therefore, the change was

13 simply to eliminate unnecessary targets which would have been automatic.

14 The 90% cap on fixed price purchases was the same for both years using the

15 Company’s method of adding monthly purchases to the amount of future fixed price

16 contracts for the current GCR year.

17 Q. PLEASE SUMMARIZE THE RESULTS OF YOUR ANALYSIS ON EXHIBIT

18 RRC-1.

19 A. Exhibit RRC-1 shows fixed price purchases made at least one month in advance of the

20 delivery month. Those results demonstrate that very different amounts can result from

21 the same guidelines and the 90% cap on fixed price purchases.

22 The following chart shows Consumers’ monthly fixed price purchases as a percentage

7

1 of its total monthly purchases in 2007-08 and 2006-07:

2 MONTH 2007-08 2006-0734 April 38.6% 24.1%5 May 49.3% 24.1%6 June 48.1% 25.3%7 July 50.6% 25.3%89 4-Month Sub-Total 46.2% 24.6%

1011 August 71.6% 42.5%12 September 86.1% 42.5%13 October 96.6% 68.4%1415 3-Month Sub-Total 84.2% 51.3%1617 November 82.6% 62.7%18 December 73.7% 74.6%19 January 68.2% 68.6%20 February 88.5% 71.9%21 March 67.1% 55.0%2223 5-Month Sub-Total 75.0% 65.7%2425 Annual 65.7% 46.1%2627 Q. WHY DO YOU CONSIDER THESE RESULTS IMPORTANT IN THIS

28 RECONCILIATION CASE?

29 A. In addition to economic concerns that will be described later in this testimony, I have

30 developed this data to address a “Catch-22" that exists between GCR Plan cases and

31 GCR Reconciliation cases.

32 My testimony in Case No. U-15454 for the 2008-09 GCR Plan period included a

33 recommendation that the 90% cap on fixed price purchases should be reduced to 80%.

34 This recommendation was based on my testimony in Case No. U-14716-R for the 2006-

8

1 07 GCR Reconciliation which estimated the financial loss caused by the Company’s

2 Fixed Price Contract Coverage at approximately $300 million. My testimony in Case

3 No. U-14716-R included the following statement:

4 “My conclusion about all this is that uncertainties regarding future5 prices should preclude the adoption of a biased purchasing strategy;6 i.e., increasing the amount of fixed price purchases far in excess of the7 Minimum Target Guidelines. Any attempt to provide too much price8 stability with increased fixed price purchases can create excessive9 costs like those which occurred in the 2006-07 GCR period. In the

10 2005-06 GCR period, this approach yielded mixed results ranging11 from very good in the summer to bad in the winter.”1213 My understanding at the time was that this should be a “Plan Case” issue. However,

14 during the discovery in Case No. U-15454 for the 2008-09 year, there was no

15 information or data relating to historical results for support of the recommendation to

16 reduce the 90% cap to 80%. Moreover, the time lag between GCR Plan filings and

17 GCR Reconciliation filings makes it difficult to obtain historical information from the

18 preceding GCR Reconciliation period for use in a pending GCR Plan proceeding. In

19 fact, the RRC did not pursue its recommendation during briefing of the 2007-2008

20 GCR Plan due to recognition that the position could not be supported by the evidence in

21 the “Plan Case”. I would also note that the recommendation of 80% was based on the

22 Company’s method of calculating the percentage and not the method shown on Exhibit

23 RRC-1.

24 Q. WHAT WERE THE FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR CONSUMERS’ TIERED AND

25 QUARTILE FIXED PRICE PURCHASES?

26 A. Tiered Fixed Price Purchases are shown on Exhibit A-7, Page 4 of 4. A total of 43,005

9

1 Mdth was purchased at a weighted average wellhead price of $8.20. This compares to a

2 weighted average wellhead price of $7.15 for purchases at a monthly Index. The total

3 additional cost of Tiered Fixed Price Purchases was $45 million ($8.20 - $7.15 x

4 43,005).

5 Quartile Fixed Price Purchases are shown on Exhibit A-7, Page 3 of 4. A total of

6 108,186 Mdth was purchased at a weighted average wellhead price of $7.04. This

7 compares to a weighted average wellhead price of $6.56 for purchases at a monthly

8 Index. The total additional cost of Quartile Fixed Price Purchases was $52 million

9 ($7.04 - $6.56 x 108,186).

10 The total additional cost to GCR customers from these two purchase methods was

11 approximately $97 million.

12 Exhibit A-7 shows that the Quartile method produced better results than the Tiered

13 method where 1.8% per week was purchased for 10 weeks during the period 9/18/06 -

14 11/27/06. A loss of $52 million for 108,186 Mdth of Quartile purchases in 2007-2008

15 was much better than my estimated loss of $300 million for 96,621 MDth of fixed price

16 purchases in 2006-07 (mostly Tiered purchases).

17 I also separately checked the results for September and October which had fixed price

18 purchases of 86% and 97% respectively. (See the chart on page 7 of this testimony). I

19 calculated the fixed weighted average wellhead price for these two months using

20 Exhibit A-9, Pages 8 and 9 of 14. The results were a total additional cost of more than

21 $43 million as shown on Exhibit RRC-2 (FJH-2).

22

10

1 Q. WHAT ARE YOUR CONCLUSIONS REGARDING CONSUMERS’ FIXED

2 PRICE PURCHASES?

3 A. My conclusions are:

4 • The data filed by Consumers in this case shows that fixed price purchases during

5 the 2007-2008 GCR period cost the GCR customers $97 million more than

6 available alternative purchasing methods.

7 • My estimate in Case No. U-14716-R of the $300 million in excess costs for the

8 2006-2007 GCR period caused by Consumers’ fixed price contract coverage

9 compared to available alternative purchasing methods was not challenged by

10 Consumers in that case.

11 • The data in Exhibit RRC-1 shows that very different levels of fixed price purchases

12 (made more than one month in advance of the delivery month) are possible using

13 the same basic guidelines and the 90% cap.

14 • The data in Exhibit RRC-1 shows that only 8% of total annual purchases were

15 monthly purchases made in the winter period and all winter purchases were only

16 33% of annual purchases; and

17 • The Tiered method is much more expensive than the Quartile method.

18 It will not take a Reconciliation Filing for 2008-09 to know that the results will again be

19 bad even though most (if not all) fixed price purchases were made using the Quartile

20 method.

21 Q. ARE YOU RECOMMENDING A DISALLOWANCE?

22 A. No. Despite the bad results described in this testimony, it appears that the Company’s

11

1 actions were within the fixed price purchasing guidelines approved by the Commission

2 in Case No. U-15041. However, the results of my audit of Consumers’ performance

3 under those guidelines is strong evidence they need to be changed.

4 Q. SHOULD CONSUMERS’ FIXED PRICE GUIDELINES BE REFORMED TO

5 ADDRESS THE PROBLEMS YOU HAVE DESCRIBED?

6 A. Yes.

7 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN.

8 A. I have discussed two years’ worth of data in this testimony that show how the Company

9 has made gas purchases under its fixed price guidelines. Based on my analysis of that

10 data, I believe the following changes would improve the Company’s performance for its

11 GCR customers:

12 1. The Company’s method of calculating fixed price purchases should be changed to

13 eliminate monthly purchases from the calculation in order to inject clarity into the

14 procedure.

15 2. The Target Date of 12/01 should be changed to 10% for Tiered purchases or up to

16 40% Quartile purchases. If Tiered purchases were made in advance of Quartile

17 purchases, the Quartile purchases would become 30% for a total of 40%.

18 3. The Target Date of 4/01 should be changed to 20% for Tiered purchases and up to

19 50% of annual purchase requirements for Quartile purchases which would include

20 up to 40% of winter only purchases. If 10% for Tiered purchases were made in

21 advance of Quartile purchases for the 12/01 Target and again before the 4/01 Target,

22 then Quartile purchases would be limited to 30% or a total of up to 50%.

12

1 4. The maximum annual percentage of fixed price purchases should not exceed 60%

2 for the current year unless caused by reduced sales compared to the filed annual

3 sales estimate.

4 5. The maximum winter period percentage of fixed price purchases for the current

5 year should not exceed 60% unless caused by reduced sales, changes associated

6 with GCC, or WTN weather. It should be noted that approximately 33% of annual

7 purchase requirements occur in the winter period and 40% represents approximately

8 13% of annual purchases to be purchased on a monthly basis in the winter period.

9 6. The maximum fixed price purchases for the current year should not exceed 70% in

10 any month including September and October.

11 7. The maximum fixed price purchases for the current year plus one should not exceed

12 50% of annual purchase requirements using the Quartile Method and only if at least

13 15% is in the First Quartile.

14 8. The maximum fixed price purchases for the current year plus 2 should not exceed

15 35% of annual purchase requirements using the Quartile Method and only if at least

16 10% is in the First Quartile.

17 9. For all future reconciliation cases, the Company should add a Page 5 of 5 to Exhibit

18 A-7 which shows the actual fixed price purchases in the same format as Exhibit

19 RRC-1 and also include the fixed price weighted average cost, the monthly

20 purchases weighted cost and the monthly plus or minus cost.

21 Q. WHAT OTHER AREAS OF CONSUMERS’ GCR RECONCILIATION FILING

22 DID YOU ANALYZE?

13

1 A. I analyzed Base Load, Use Factors, monthly estimates for the winter period, Peak Day

2 load estimates, storage operations, and the March purchases made to meet the

3 Company’s 4% probability criteria.

4 Q. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS OF YOUR BASE LOAD AND USE FACTOR

5 ANALYSIS?

6 A. Discovery Question RRC-13-d&e (15041R-RRC-CE-24) requested Consumers to “state

7 whether the Company recognized a Base Load/Use Factor per HDD for GCR/GCC

8 customers and how it is calculated”. Consumers’ response is attached to my testimony

9 on Pages 2-3 of Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3). It was “Yes, the Company recognizes both a

10 Base Load and Use Factor per HDD. The factors are computed in the following steps”.

11 I analyzed each of the six steps shown on subpart d. of Consumers’ discovery response

12 on Page 2 of Exhibit RRC-3. These are my findings with respect to each of the steps:

13 Step 1: Consumers did not mention daily withdrawals or injections regarding storage

14 operations. My assumption is that these plus or minus adjustments are made to citygate

15 deliveries together with the Company use for compressor fuel and Lost and

16 Unaccounted For (LAUF) gas is ignored. There were only 13 years of regressions

17 included (1994-95 is missing and is also not shown on the power fit regression) and the

18 regression from 1993-94 was not used for anything.

19 Step 2: I have four objections to the use of the last 12 winters for the power fit

20 regression.

21 • The regression data for 1995-96 was for the period 1/02/96 - 2/15/96 instead of

22 11/01/95 - 3/31/96. Also, the regression data for 1996-97 was for days with greater

14

1 than 10 HDD. Therefore, these two years are not on the same basis as the other 10

2 years.

3 • The eight years between 1997-98 and 2004-05 had relatively stable prices and

4 apparent growth with a Peak Day estimate of approximately 3180 in 1997-98 versus

5 the Peak Day estimate of approximately 3300 in 2004-05. This was an average of

6 approximately 3275 for the eight-year period of time with no indication of any

7 significant conservation efforts by the customers.

8 • The last two years of data for 2005-06 and 2006-07 had high prices leading to

9 significant conservation efforts by the customers. The regressions for these two

10 years have almost duplicate results and, in my opinion, are the only two years which

11 should be used for making projections.

12 • The power fit regression shows that both 2005-06 and 2006-07 fall beneath the 95%

13 Confidence Band and creates more credibility for the use of only these two years.

14 Step 3: The response states “Citygate base loads from the annual regressions vary from

15 400 MMcf/D to 150 MMcf/D. The recent value has been about 200 MMcf/D.” I have

16 three objections to the above representation of Base Load.

17 • A Base Load is usually developed from July data or July and August together can

18 only become higher in the winter season. This is due to a number of factors

19 including colder water temperatures to hot water heaters and increased use of dryers

20 and stoves. The use of July or July and August is much more definitive for

21 • estimating the minimum Base Load than using the intercept at 65 degrees (0 HDD)

22 resulting from a linear regression.

15

1 • The 400 MMcf/D in the Company’s response occurred in 1993-94 which was not

2 part of the 12 regressions used. The 150 MMcf/D was actually 152 and occurred in

3 2002-03. The average Base Load for the period between 1997-98 through 2003-04

4 (all regressions based on 11/01-3/31 data) excluding 2002-03 was 258 MMcf/D.

5 The average for the last three regressions (2004-05 through 2006-07) was 175

6 MMcf/D. This would indicate to me that some problem exists with the regression

7 data and/or the assumption of daily usage by the EUT customers. I do know that the

8 minimum Base Load for GCR/GCC customers would have been 154 MMcf/D for

9 the 2007-08 period based on Exhibit A-2, Page 1 of 2, Line 23, Column B.

10 • I do not know why the regressions are evidently based on “Wind Adjusted Weighted

11 Degree Day” data. If 4 HDD were added to all days used in the regression as

12 indicated in the Company’s response to 15041R-RRC-CE-24b on Page 2 of Exhibit

13 RRC-3, then the regression data and results are incorrect. Wind is a variable and not

14 a constant. If pure weighted Degree Day data is used, the results of the regression

15 will be Base Load and Use/Degree Day based on the actual average wind for the 5-

16 month period. Without knowledge of the weighted actual average wind for each

17 day, the addition of 4 HDD may be 2 higher for an actual day with low wind and 2

18 lower on an actual day with high wind for the same number of HDD experienced.

19 This scenario would create a difference of more than 100 MMcf for two days with

20 the same number of HDD. I completely agree that an allowance for higher than

21 • average wind should be made for a Peak Day which could have extremely cold

22 temperatures and high wind on the same day. However, it is wrong to add 4 HDD to

16

1 every day if this is in fact what is meant by “Wind Adjusted Weighted Degree Day”.

2 Steps 4 & 5: I would normally not have any problem with these two steps. However, I

3 can neither accept the power fit projection nor the assumption of a 200 MMcf/D Base

4 Load estimate for the reasons stated above. Also, the “Predicted City Gate Load per

5 Degree Day” shown on Page 23 of Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3) is based on data for the

6 11/01-3/31 period instead of using monthly regressions for each individual month with

7 data from the most recent 2-3 years. Use factors are unequivocally variable for each of

8 the months from November through March as well as other months in the year. Once

9 monthly Use Factors have been determined from monthly regressions, a bell-shaped

10 curve can be developed for the 5-month period.

11 Step 6: I do recognize that the use of regressions by the Company is very difficult due

12 to the lack of accurate daily data. Even though the Company knows the citygate

13 deliveries and storage use on a daily basis, the actual deliveries by EUT customers may

14 not match the actual daily use. It is my understanding that only monthly data is

15 available for estimating the daily demand of EUT customers.

16 Additional data and analyses are covered next in my testimony relating to monthly

17 estimates and Peak Day load estimates.

18 Q. WHAT METHOD DID YOU EMPLOY AT THE GAS DISTRIBUTION

19 COMPANY WHERE YOU WORKED TO DEVELOP DAILY AND MONTHLY

20 ESTIMATES?

21 A. At Washington Gas, we had the benefit of having precise daily sendout data as well as

22 hourly temperature and wind data from the NOAA weather station at Washington

17

1 Reagan National Airport. Hourly data was used to develop HDD and wind for the actual

2 “gas day” instead of the officially recorded Midnight to Midnight HDD generated by the

3 average of the high and low temperatures. The bell-shaped use factor curve (developed

4 from monthly regressions) was checked every day from November through March using

5 a program to input actual day’s sendout. This program was also used to update the

6 current day’s estimated sendout for any changes in the forecasted weather. This

7 estimating process used the following:

8 o Daily Use Factors from the bell-shaped curve

9 o Base Load estimate which increased from 11/01 through 12/31, stayed flat from10 1/01-2/28 and then decreased from 3/01-3/31. The Base Load was never lower than11 the July/August average.1213 o HDD based on average temperatures for the Gas Day

14 o Wind correction based on average wind for the Gas Day

15 o Correction for Day of the Week and Holidays

16 o Correction for preceding day’s average temperature versus current day

17 o Correction for 6:00 AM temperature for preceding day versus current day

18 Q. HOW DO THE LOCAL DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES (LDC’S) IN MICHIGAN

19 COMPARE TO WASHINGTON GAS?

20 A. None of the four largest LDC’s in Michigan have an estimating system that is as

21 sophisticated as the one used at Washington Gas. This is primarily due to the wide

22 areas being served by the Michigan LDC’s and the lack of temperature or wind data on

23 an hourly basis. Consumers is also faced with large EUT loads (over 20% of annual

24 throughput) with very little information for actual daily usage.

18

1 I have submitted testimony in both GCR Plan and Reconciliation Cases for MGUC and

2 SEMCO over the past five years (including disallowance recommendations) which have

3 resulted in better monthly and Peak Day estimates by those gas companies. I submitted

4 testimony in MichCon’s 2007-2008 GCR Plan Case No. U-15042 which demonstrated

5 the existence of variable use factors for different months of the year. This resulted in

6 the Company’s performance of a heat load factor study completed in September 2007.

7 MichCon implemented the results from this study in October 2007 (see Testimony of G.

8 H. Chapel on Page 8, Line 13 through Page 10, Line 14 in Case No. U-15042-R).

9 Q. HAVE YOU ADDRESSED THESE ISSUES IN THE PLAN CASES FOR

10 CONSUMERS?

11 A. Yes. I filed testimony in the 2007-08 Plan Case No. U-15041 (Page 4, Line 9 through

12 Page 9, Line 12) on the subjects of monthly and Peak Day estimates. The only

13 Company response in the 2008-09 Plan Case No. U-15454 was in Ms. Clark’s testimony

14 on Page 12, Lines 5-14 and Exhibit A-13. I have included Discovery Request 15454-

15 RRC-CE-8 as Exhibit RRC-4 (FJH-4). One only has to examine Exhibit A-13 for

16 Weather Normalized Sales for March for the years 2002 through 2007 to find values of

17 33,030/31,017/35,472/31,531/31,583/34,373 respectively. The forecasted sales for

18 March in the 2002 through 2007 period were

19 33,159/32,848/32,302/32,413/33,155/32,352 respectively. At that point in time, I still

20 believed that March estimates had no significant bearing on any financial impact to

21 GCR customers. Therefore, I did not pursue the issue since my intent was only to be

22 helpful to the Company.

19

1 Q. WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE YOUR TESTIMONY IN MAY 2008 FOR CASE

2 NO. U-15454?

3 A. Plan Case No. U-15454 evolved into a contested proceeding regarding the Company’s

4 use of a 4% probability for planning March supply and the amount of storage

5 availability. This issue is again present in the current case and will be addressed later in

6 testimony. My testimony dealing with Base Load, Use Factors and monthly estimates

7 have a direct bearing on planning purchases for March. The Peak Day and monthly

8 estimates now have a direct bearing on the financial impact to GCR customers,

9 especially for March. I do not believe that a resolution can wait for the 2009-10 GCR

10 Plan Case and once again there is information in this Reconciliation Case which would

11 not be available for the Plan Case. This is especially relevant because Base Load and

12 Use Factors can be developed from actual data instead of the Company’s monthly plan

13 estimates which are not credible for any purpose. The only major assumption necessary

14 is that the Company’s “Booked” volumes for November through March are accurate for

15 each individual month.

16 In addition, the Company’s response to Discovery Request 15041R-RRC-CE-24,

17 Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3), provided me with complete data and information for the first

18 time regarding how it calculates Base Load and Use Factors for the 5-month winter

19 period.

20 Q. WHAT METHOD DID YOU USE TO DEVELOP MONTHLY ESTIMATES FOR

21 CONSUMERS?

22 A. I used the booked volume of 4,771 from Exhibit A-2 for July 2007 to establish the

20

1 minimum winter Base Load of 154 for GCR/GCC customers. The process for creating

2 the average “Implied Use per HDD” for each month is as follows:

3 Filed Normal Plan: Monthly sales estimate minus monthly Base Load = Weather Gas4 Weather Gas divided by Normal monthly HDD = Implied5 Use/HDD 6 Sales Estimate and Monthly HDD from Exhibit A-278 Revised Plan: Same as Filed Normal Plan except that Sales Estimate was from9 the August 2007 Sales Forecast contained in the

10 Company’s response to Discovery Request 15041R-RRC-11 CE-12.1213 Actual/Normalized: Actual monthly sales minus monthly Base Load = Weather Gas14 Weather Gas divided by Actual monthly HDD = Implied15 Use/HDD16 Implied Use per HDD times Normal monthly HDD = Weather 17 Gas18 Weather Gas plus monthly Base Load = Normalized Sales19 Actual monthly Sales, Actual monthly HDD and Normal monthly 20 HDD from Exhibit A-22122 A comparison of the results for the November through March period is as follows for

23 the Implied use per HDD and monthly sales for GCR/GCC customers:

24 Filed Normal Plan Revised Normal Plan Actual/Normalized

25 29.51 (26,573) 29.09 (26,261) 28.10 (25,526)26 30.31 (38,693) 29.91 (38,247) 30.90 (39,351)27 31.01 (45,022) 31.28 (45,376) 31.47 (45,622)28 28.82 (36,890) 29.81 (37,999) 30.54 (38,824)29 29.89 (32,244) 30.56 (32,859) 29.21 (31,618)3031 (179,422) (180,742) 180,941323334 Q. WHAT ARE YOUR CONCLUSIONS REGARDING MONTHLY ESTIMATES?

35 A. The revised normal plan was prepared by or under the supervision of Mr. Puckett as part

36 of his duties as Manager of Gas Control and System Planning. It is obvious that this

21

1 revision was very close to the Normalized sales total for the 5-month period. It is just as

2 obvious that a significant difference of 1,241 MMcf occurred in the month of March. It

3 should also be obvious that an average Implied Use per HDD for March cannot logically

4 be greater than the one used for February. It can also be noted that February was 6%

5 CTN and March was 7% CTN. This level of CTN weather would not create any up or

6 down bias in the Implied Use per HDD such as that which could occur in significant

7 WTN or CTN weather.

8 My first conclusion is that the Company’s two methods of estimating monthly sales

9 remain inaccurate even though the annual sales total is correct.

10 My second conclusion is that the continuing bad estimates of March sales is a major

11 contributing factor for excess purchases in March 2007 and now again in March 2008.

12 Q. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS OF YOUR ANALYSIS OF PEAK DAY LOAD

13 ESTIMATES?

14 A. This analysis proved to be much more difficult than estimating monthly sales, as

15 evidenced by my extensive review of Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3), the Company’s response

16 to Discovery Question 15041R-RRC-CE-24 and the 6 steps shown in the response to

17 subpart d. on Page 2 of that Exhibit. I limited my review to the months of January

18 through March in accordance with the Company’s presentations for Peak Day

19 calculations.

20 The starting point for any Peak Day calculation is to establish the Base Load. Since I

21 had already established the minimum winter Base Load of 154 for the GCR/GCC

22 customers, the only requirement was to determine Base Load for End User Transport

22

1 (EUT) customers. I used the Company’s response to Discovery Question 15041R-RRC-

2 CE-12 (Document #04110018), attached to this testimony as Exhibit RRC-5 (FJH-5), to

3 obtain the 3193 shown for July actuals and established the EUT Base Load of 103.

4 The next step was to estimate the Implied Use per HDD for GCR/GCC customers on a

5 Peak Day based on the average Implied Use per HDD used for the monthly estimates. I

6 made a subjective analysis to establish the Use/HDD for the first of the month (FOM),

7 the middle of the month (MM), and the end of the month (EOM). These results are as

8 follows:

9 FOM MM EOM

10 January Average @ 31.47 31.2 32.2 31.0

11 February Average @ 30.54 31.0 30.5 29.9

12 March Average @ 29.21 29.9 29.5 29.0

13 Another subjective method is to add 3% to the EOM Implied Use per HDD which was

14 developed above. The results of this method are as follows:

15 January EOM @ 31.0 times 1.03 = 31.93

16 February EOM @ 29.9 times 1.03 = 30.80

17 March EOM @ 29.0 times 1.03 = 29.87

18 The most conservative subjective method is to add 3% to the average Implied Use per

19 HDD used for monthly estimates. The results are as follows:

20 January Average @ 31.47 times 1.03 = 32.41

21 February Average @ 30.54 times 1.03 = 31.46

22 March Average @ 29.21 times 1.03 = 30.09

23

1 The same Discovery Response used to establish Base Load for EUT provided the

2 Company’s estimates for monthly volumes. However, application of the same Implied

3 Use per HDD process yielded a Use Factor of only 3.36 for January compared to 4.36

4 for February and 4.25 for March. I chose to make the assumption that holidays and/or

5 plant shut downs for maintenance could be a reason for the low January Use/HDD.

6 Therefore, I subjectively used 4.45 for January together with 4.36 for February and 4.25

7 for March.

8 Q. WHAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE HDD RELATING TO PEAK DAY

9 CALCULATIONS?

10 A. The Company’s Peak Day estimates are based on 80 HDD through January 31, 65 HDD

11 through February 29 and 50 HDD through March 31. The RRC’s Discovery Question

12 RRC-13b in Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3) at Page 1, requested that the Company “provide all

13 actual days in history for 80 HDD in January, 65 HDD in February and 50 HDD in

14 March”. The Company’s response was an attached data sort from 1960 through April

15 2008 identified as 15041R-RRC-CE-24b on Pages 4-7 of Exhibit RRC-3. The RRC’s

16 Discovery Question RRC-13c in Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3) at Page 1, requested that the

17 Company “provide the actual days in history for the most HDD occurring in the last 7

18 days in January, February and March”. The Company’s response was an attached data

19 sort from 1960 through April 2008 identified as 15041R-RRC-CE-24c that is Page 8 of

20 Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3).

21 In my testimony at the hearing in Case No. U-15454, I expressed a strong opinion that

22 the Company relied too much on out-of-date weather data. Recognition must be given

24

1 to the fact that the weather has been becoming warmer for some time and that trend may

2 even be accelerating. I believe the most common approach in the gas industry is to use

3 the coldest weather experienced in the past 25 years (a 1 in 25 chance of occurrence). I

4 have applied this 1 in 25 criteria to my examination of these historical records as

5 follows:

6 January (80 HDD)

7 The coldest day in the 49-year history occurred on 1/19/94 with 76.36 HDD plus 4 HDD

8 to create a Wind Adjusted HDD of 80.36. In a previous case, the Company’s response

9 to discovery provided the information of an actual average wind of 14.5 MPH. The

10 actual occurrence of 80 Wind Adjusted HDD on 1/19/94 meets the 1 in 25 criteria. The

11 second coldest day in history occurred on 1/21/84 with 73.88 HDD, but whether or not

12 this day should have 4 HDD added to represent a Wind Adjusted HDD of 77.87 is

13 unknown. The Company should not arbitrarily add 4 HDD for wind to every cold day

14 because these days could have average wind or below average wind. It is illogical to

15 present data based on the addition of 4 HDD to every cold day without an average wind

16 speed study and proof of actual wind speeds that exceed the average. I performed such

17 a study in the mid-70's at Washington Gas and identified 9.8 MPH as the average wind

18 speed for the winter period. I can accept that 14.5 MPH wind can create an adjustment

19 of 4 HDD if the weighted average wind speed in Lansing and Detroit is approximately

20 10 MPH. The best that can be claimed is that wind may add 4 HDD, but the flip side is

21 that wind may subtract 4 HDD.

22 Examination of the data for the most HDD occurring in the last 7 days of January

25

1 revealed only 2 days which meet the 1 in 25 criteria. These days occurred on 1/27/86

2 with 62.64 HDD and on 1/25/04 with 62.10 HDD. It is unknown whether the 4 HDD

3 adjustment for wind would apply. However, this becomes a moot point since data in

4 early February shows the potential for the occurrence of up to 70 HDD.

5 These results show that 80 HDD is proper for January until the last week when the

6 maximum would be 70 HDD and not 80 HDD on January 31.

7 February (65 HDD)

8 Examination of the coldest days occurring in the past 25 years resulted in a total of 11

9 days ranging from 66 HDD on 2/03/96 to 61 HDD on 2/06/07. The addition of 4 HDD

10 for wind is acceptable because it is logical to assume that there is a high probability

11 based on 11 days. The wind adjusted HDD would create a range from 70 HDD to 65

12 HDD. Further examination of the data reveals that 10 of the 11 days occurred between

13 February 2 and February 7. The remaining day occurred on 2/10/94 with 64-68 HDD.

14 Examination of the data for the last 7 days of February results in 58-62 HDD based on

15 the 1 in 25 criteria and occurred on 2/25/93. However, the Company did not interpret

16 my intent for the coldest days which was that these days could have all occurred on the

17 same calendar day but in different years. The only two days which could result in

18 something higher than 58-62 HDD would be for February 22 and 26 which could have a

19 maximum of 60-64 HDD.

20 These results show that 70 HDD is proper for February until mid-month at 65 HDD and

21 February 29 at 58-62 HDD.

22

26

1 March (50 HDD)

2 At first glance, the data provided for March would seem very impressive since there are

3 109 dates listed with a range of 59-63 down to 45-49 HDD. Even after application of

4 the 1 in 25 criteria, there were 51 dates ranging from a high of 59-63 HDD on 3/3/03

5 down to 45-49 HDD on 3/1/89. However, 46 of the 51 dates occurred on or before

6 March 13. The remaining 5 dates occurred on 3/14/93 with 51-55 HDD, 3/20/86 with

7 48-52 HDD, 3/26/96 with 47-51 HDD, 3/26/01 with 47-51 HDD, and 3/18/93 with 45-49

8 HDD.

9 Examination of the data for the last 7 days of March revealed that 3/27/96 also had 45-

10 49 HDD. There were no days from March 28-31 that approached 50 HDD without the

11 wind adjustment which is unknown.

12 Summary

13 There was only one documented occurrence of a wind adjusted 80 HDD for January.

14 There were no occurrences of 65 HDD for February 29 during the past 25 years, even on

15 a wind adjusted basis. There were no occurrences of 50 HDD for March 31 during the

16 past 25 years, even on a wind adjusted basis. Even though I will not be recommending

17 any changes to the HDD levels used for Peak Day calculations, it is important to

18 recognize that Consumers has a very conservative approach to the level of potential

19 HDD occurrence. The Company uses 49 years of historical data and Wind Adjusted

20 HDD on every cold day without documentation. Even this criterion results in only 70

21 HDD on 1/28/66 and 68 HDD on 1/31/71; then 67 HDD on 2/26/63 and 56 HDD on

22 2/28/94; and then 54 HDD on 3/25/60 and 45 HDD on 3/31/69. Only a single day near

27

1 the end of both February and March exceeds the 65 HDD for February and the 50 HDD

2 for March in the last 49 years.

3 Q. HOW DOES CONSUMERS CALCULATE ITS PEAK DAY LOADS?

4 A. The Company included Document #04110082 entitled “Peak Day Load Estimate Per

5 Customer Group” as part of its response identified as 15041R-RRC-CE-24d at page 24

6 of Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3). A general description of the process is as follows:

7 Base Load: The monthly volumes for July are shown to be an average of 153/D for

8 Sales and 103/D for EUT resulting in a total of 256/D. However, the Company then

9 uses a Base Load of 200 which is split by the same 60-40% derived from the actual July

10 data resulting in 120/D for Sales and 80/D for EUT. My 3 objections to using 200/D

11 were covered under Step #3 earlier in this testimony.

12 Peak Day Load Estimates: I believe the source document for the estimate of 3262 is

13 the result of the Power Fit Regression (Document #04110080), Exhibit RRC-3 (FJH-3),

14 Page 22. I have already commented on my 4 objections associated with this process

15 under Step #2 earlier in this testimony. It appears that the “Predicted City Gate Load

16 per Degree Day” (Document #04110081), Exhibit RRC-3, Page 23 is simply a line

17 drawn from 200 @ zero degree days (representing Base Load) to the point representing

18 approximately 3262 @ 80 HDD. My objections to the use of this document were

19 covered under Steps #4 and #5 earlier in this testimony.

20 Weather Sensitive Factor (or Implied Use per HDD): I believe that this was, in fact,

21 an Implied Use per HDD based on 3262 minus 200 divided by 80 = 38.28 which was

22 then split into 33.80 for Sales and 4.48 for EUT based on 88.3% for Sales and 11.7% for

28

1 EUT. I will readily admit that I have never heard of a company performing 12 winter

2 season regressions and then making a regression of the 12 projections at 80 HDD.

3 The Company then makes Peak Day Load Estimates using the exact same Use/HDD of

4 33.80 for Sales and 4.48 EUT for all 3 months.

5 Q. DID YOU CONSIDER ANY OTHER METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE PEAK

6 DAY LOADS?

7 A. After consideration of all of my objections to the Company’s process, I decided to make

8 my own “Power Fit” analysis. I used the projections at 80 HDD from the last two

9 Company regressions which were 3140 for 2005-06 and 3156 for 2006-07. I then added

10 the two and divided by 2 to develop the Peak Day Estimate of 3148 for 80 HDD. I used

11 the Company’s July data to develop the Base Load of 153 for Sales and 103 for EUT for

12 a total Base Load of 256. This resulted in the Implied Use per HDD of 36.15 which was

13 then split into 31.92 for Sales and 4.23 for EUT based on the Company’s 88.3% for

14 Sales and 11.7% for EUT. The calculations for February and March Peak Day

15 Estimates were then completed using the same Base Load and Implied Use per HDD

16 from January. My Predicted City Gate Load per Degree Day would then appear to be

17 the same as Consumers except that the intercept at zero degrees would be 256 and the

18 projection at 80 HDD would be 3148.

19 Q. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS OF THE 5 METHODS YOU HAVE

20 IDENTIFIED?

21 A. The pertinent data for the development of results using the Company’s method are a

22 Base Load of 120 for Sales and 80 for EUT together with a constant Use/HDD of 33.80

29

1 for Sales and 4.48 for EUT.

2 Data for the method using the last two years of regression but otherwise mimic the

3 Company’s method are a Base Load of 153 for Sales and 103 for EUT together with a

4 constant Use/HDD of 31.92 for Sales and 4.23 for EUT.

5 Data for the EOM method are a Base Load of 154 for Sales and 103 for EUT together

6 with a variable Sales Use/HDD of 31.0 for January, 29.9 for February and 29.0 for

7 March.

8 Data for EOM plus 3% method are a Base Load of 154 for Sales and 103 for EUT

9 together with a variable Sales Use/HDD of 31.93 for January, 30.80 for February and

10 29.87 for March.

11 Data for average monthly Use/HDD plus 3% method are a Base Load of 154 for Sales

12 and 103 for EUT together with a variable Sales Use/HDD of 32.41 for January, 31.46

13 for February and 30.09 for March. All of the last 3 methods also use a

14 variable EUT Use/HDD of 4.45 for January, 4.36 for February and 4.25 for March.

15 The Peak Day estimates from each of the 5 methods are shown below:

16 Consumers Two Years EOM EOM+3% Avg.+3%1718 January Sales 2824 2707 2634 2708 27471920 January EUT 438 441 459 459 45921 Total 3262 3148 3093 3167 3206222324 February Sales 2317 2228 2098 2156 21992526 February EUT 371 378 386 386 386 27 Total 2688 2606 2484 2542 258528

30

1 Consumers Two Years EOM EOM+3% Avg.+3%23 March Sales 1810 1749 1604 1648 165845 March EUT 304 315 316 315 3166 Total 2114 2064 1920 1963 1974

7 The average Use/HDD for January, February and March are irrefutable since the

8 development was based on what actually occurred. How can a Use/HDD of 33.80 for

9 Sales occur on March 31 when it exceeds the average Use/HDD for every month? How

10 can the March 31 Use/HDD be greater than the average Use/HDD from the month as a

11 whole by 16% (33.80 divided by 29.21)? In my opinion, the maximum Peak Day

12 estimates based on actual 2007-08 data would be from using the Average Implied Use

13 per HDD plus 3%. The above data shows that January may be a bit conservative, but

14 February and March are not only very conservative, they are wrong.

15 Q. PLEASE SUMMARIZE YOUR FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS REGARDING

16 THE COMPANY’S ESTIMATING AND PLANNING PROCESS?

17 A. Even though I have analyzed the winter period, my focus and intent were to address the

18 specific month of March. My analysis of monthly estimates showed that the actual

19 March data supported a Normalized estimate of 31,618 MMcf. This amount is 1,241

20 MMcf less than the estimate used by the Company’s Gas Control and System Planning

21 Department for winter operations. My analysis of Base Load showed that 256-257 MMcf

22 was the correct level for Sales and EUT. The Company itself acknowledges this amount

23 even though it is arbitrarily changed to 200 MMcf for Peak Day calculations. My

24 analysis shows conclusively that a variable Use/HDD exists and that the use of a constant

31

1 Use/HDD associated with Peak Day calculations is not appropriate. My analysis shows

2 that the equivalent of one 80 HDD day occurred in history, but that the 65 HDD and 50

3 HDD for the end of February and March respectively have never occurred. Finally, my

4 analysis shows that the March 31 estimate of Peak Day is overstated by approximately

5 140 MMcf.

6 My conclusion is that an overstatement of monthly requirements and the March 31 Peak

7 Day can and did lead to increased March purchases in 2007 and again in 2008.

8 Q. DOES YOUR 33 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE AT WASHINGTON GAS HAVE ANY

9 APPLICATION TO THE ESTIMATING AND PLANNING PROCESS FOR GAS

10 COMPANIES IN MICHIGAN?

11 A. Yes, without a doubt. Despite the weather differences between the two systems and my

12 lack of direct experience operating storage on the scale of Consumers, it is my view that

13 Consumers’ operations are much easier compared to Washington Gas. Winter

14 operational concerns normally do not start at Consumers until mid-February unless there

15 are mechanical problems. Consumers should take an opportunity to talk to SEMCO and

16 MGUC to compare winter operational concerns in order to appreciate its own

17 capabilities. I have reviewed the operations of all four of Michigan’s largest local gas

18 distribution companies for the past 10 years. The only significant difference is one of

19 scale and capabilities between MichCon and Consumers versus SEMCO and MGUC.

20 The weather differences are inconsequential to anyone who has had over 30 years of

21 operational and planning experience. The calculation of HDD is the same for

22 Washington and Michigan. The Base Load is determined by the same method of using

32

1 July or July/August actual requirements. Washington Gas had much superior access to

2 actual daily sendout data to calculate Use/HDD. In Michigan, SEMCO comes the closest

3 to being able to calculate a Use/HDD with some degree of precision followed by

4 MichCon, MGUC and then Consumers. Even though it is true that Consumers has the

5 largest EUT load with little or no actual daily data, it should make a better effort to

6 develop more accurate estimates instead of relying on large storage capabilities. The

7 method which I am recommending is not perfect due to the lack of actual daily data, but

8 it is superior to the method employed by Consumers.

9 Q. WHAT WERE YOUR FINDINGS REGARDING THE COMPANY’S USE OF

10 THE SENDOUT MODEL FOR OPERATIONS?

11 A. I would first note that the RRC spent a considerable amount of time and effort in Case

12 No. U-15454 evaluating the Company’s “Sendout Model” and the results on Exhibit A-

13 29. I made a conscious effort to find any reference to the Sendout Model in the

14 testimony and exhibits for this Reconciliation Case. I could find no mention of the

15 Model.

16 There were no claims of any actual use of the Sendout Model in the Company’s

17 responses to two discovery questions (15041R-RRC-CE-20 and 15041R-RRC-CE-27).

18 Those responses are attached to my testimony as Exhibit RRC-6 (FJH-6). I can now

19 confess that I was perplexed by how the Company could use a linear programming model

20 for any conceivable purpose relating to actual storage operations. I rejected the use of

21 such a model at Washington Gas with the statement that “Anyone who doesn’t know the

22 answer before the model’s output should not be working in the Gas Supply Department.”

33

1 The Company’s responses to other discovery (covered next in my testimony) relating to

2 winter storage and operational planning creates much more confidence than any claim of

3 a useful Sendout Model.

4 Q. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS OF YOUR ANALYSIS REGARDING STORAGE

5 OPERATIONS?

6 A. The first result was that the Company has provided enough information to properly make

7 an independent evaluation. There is a greater comfort level in analyzing data and

8 processes which are familiar and straight forward.

9 I made a thorough analysis of the Company’s responses to Discovery Questions RRC-1

10 (15041R-RRC-CE-12, Document Nos.04110013 through 04110023), RRC-2 (15041R-

11 RRC-CE-13, Document Nos. 04110024 through 04110036) and RRC-3 (15041R-RRC-

12 CE-14, Document Nos. 04110037 through 04110046). These documents are attached to

13 my testimony as Exhibit RRC-7 (FJH-7). [Note: Page 6 of Exhibit RRC-7 is the same as

14 Exhibit RRC-5.] My analysis of these documents revealed that all of the Company’s

15 previous statements concerning storage utilization being dictated by actual operating

16 conditions, actual deviations from Normal weather, and the differences in base load and

17 peaker fields are only “the tail wagging the dog”. The primary reason for reduced

18 storage use and the underlying cause is dictated by the Company’s use of the 4%

19 probability of weather occurrence. For example, the Company’s revised operating plan

20 near the end of January (1/22/08) showed planned storage use of 49,806 for Design

21 weather in February and March. The revised operating plan in early February (2/05/08)

22 showed planned storage use of 40,525 for Normal weather in February and March. The

34

1 difference between Design and Normal was 9,281 with 7,826 shown for February and

2 1,455 for March. Further, the net reduction in storage capability for Design weather

3 between the 1/22/08 operating plan (49,806) and the 2/23/08 operating plan (49,100) was

4 only 706. This analysis resulted only in my belief that the Company was at least

5 consistent in its evaluation of storage capabilities.

6 The impact of Consumers’ 4% probability of weather occurrence becomes very dramatic

7 for the 2007-08 winter season when the Normal storage estimates are made for February

8 and March. I used the August Forecast of requirements shown in the operating plan from

9 early November (11/05/07) as a baseline for February and March Normal storage

10 availability. The February baseline was 23,857 versus the 2/05/08 update of 24,485; but

11 the same update reduced the baseline storage from 17,747 to 16,040 for March. This was

12 a net reduction in planned storage use of 1,079 and was directly caused by the 4%

13 probability criteria for February and March. The March baseline was 17,747 versus the

14 3/05/08 update of 14,782 resulting in a net reduction in planned storage use of 2,965 and

15 was directly caused by the 4% probability criteria for March. The basic problem is that

16 the issue is not the calculation of storage capability for February/March, but the

17 requirements to husband storage capacity to meet the 4% probability criteria.

18 The record in Case No. U-15454 reflects the fact that I do not agree with the Company’s

19 basis for the 4% probability criteria and that its use is much too conservative. It is now

20 clear that the Company could never use the amount of storage in the filed GCR case or

21 any of the early-month or mid-month planning updates unless March actually

22 experienced Design weather of 20% CTN. Consumers has more storage (108 Bcf)

35

1 dedicated to GCR/GCC customer use than MichCon (68 Bcf) and results in lower

2 commodity costs for GCR customers which is commendable. However, MichCon

3 operates with only 5 Bcf for CTN weather with plans to increase purchases after CTN

4 weather has been experienced. Consumers started the 2007-08 winter season with 8,167

5 (108,762 for Design minus 100,595 for Normal per 11/05/07 August Forecast Plan) for

6 CTN weather, but planned to end the winter season with 6,398 (21,180 per the 2/23/08

7 Design update minus 14,782 per the 3/05/08 Normal update) of underutilized storage if

8 there was a Normal instead of Design March. The actual weather for 2007-08 was

9 approximately 5% CTN in November, Normal in December, 12% WTN in January, 6%

10 CTN in February and 7% CTN in March. March had approximately 1.2 Bcf less

11 requirements caused by the Company’s estimate of March Normal Load and 0.7 Bcf less

12 requirements for the CTN Addition based on the data presented earlier in my testimony.

13 However, this amount was offset by approximately 1.9 Bcf resulting from my estimate

14 for the actual March occurrence of 65 HDD CTN using the Use/HDD of 29.21.

15 My analysis of the Company’s responses to Discovery Questions RRC-6 (CE-17), RRC-7

16 (CE-18), RRC-12 (CE-23), RRC-15 (CE-26) and RRC-17 (CE-28) satisfied most of my

17 concerns relating to storage inventories and operations. However, the most important

18 remaining doubt is with regard to Ray Field. The Company’s planning updates all

19 include the Ray Design Inventory of -9,200 for January, -18,700 for February and -26,200

20 for March in bold type at the bottom of the page dealing with storage. The response to

21 Discovery Question U-15041R-RRC-CE-17 shows the Actual Operating Inventories for

22 Ray to have been 5,213 for January (+14,413 vs Design) and -9,900 for February (+8,800

36

1 vs Design). Exhibit A-13 shows Ray projected to be -9,650 at the end of February and -

2 23,625 for the end of March with 4% Design weather. In my opinion, Consumers was

3 once again conservative with another element of its planning.

4 Q. PLEASE SUMMARIZE YOUR FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS REGARDING

5 THE COMPANY’S STORAGE OPERATIONS.

6 A. Consumers is by far the most conservative gas company in Michigan. None of the other

7 three major utilities plan or actually operate to retain sufficient storage for the occurrence

8 of 20% CTN weather for March. In fact, none of the other three utilities would even

9 have 5% for CTN weather in March if the previous month was 10% CTN or season to

10 date through February was 5% CTN. All of the other three utilities plan and do make

11 additional winter season purchases as necessary to meet CTN weather. I have testified

12 and encouraged both SEMCO and MGUC to maintain a storage reserve which would be

13 sufficient to accommodate 10% CTN weather through February on a month-to-month

14 basis with a designated storage reserve amount which is replenished each month if CTN

15 weather occurs until February. I have also testified and worked with MichCon to

16 develop its CTN Plan.

17 Consumers is the only gas company in Michigan with such a strong CTN weather

18 paradigm that it has even refused to study the issue as evidenced by the proceedings in

19 Case No. U-15454. Meanwhile, the GCR customers continue to pay for the added gas

20 cost associated with purchases made in February for March Design requirements (which

21 may only occur once every 25 years) instead of using its storage.

22 Q. WHAT ARE YOUR CONCLUSIONS IN THIS CASE?

37

1 A. First, my testimony and calculations show that the Normal March estimate of

2 requirements were overstated by 1,241 MMcf and the 4% probability estimate was

3 overstated by 717 MMcf. The Company’s estimate for the 4% Probability Cold Weather

4 Addition was 6,524 compared to 5,807 developed by using the Average Implied

5 Use/HDD for March of 29.21 times 1.03 for much colder weather times 193 HDD.

6 Second, the use of 4% probability for CTN weather in March (1 in 25 chance of

7 occurrence); coupled with the Peak Day Plan to meet 50 HDD on 3/31/08, which has

8 never happened in the 49 years of weather data provided; and also coupled with my

9 testimony and calculations that the 3/31/08 Peak Day was over estimated by 140 MMcf

10 are individually sufficient to state that all of the 2/26/08 incremental March purchases

11 were not necessary.

12 My third conclusion is that Consumers knew of the RRC’s objections relating to the use

13 of 4% probability for CTN weather by virtue of the contested proceeding in Case U-

14 14716-R for the 2006-07 period. My testimony in that case also included information

15 relating to Use/HDD and monthly estimates for GCR customers. The Company chose to

16 ignore this testimony.

17 My fourth conclusion is that Consumers knew of the RRC’s position that the

18 Company’s own monthly estimates were considered to be incorrect and that there was an

19 overstatement for March. Consumers chose not to make any changes and ignored all of

20 the recommendations made in Case No. U-15041.

21 My final conclusion is that the only way to get the Company’s attention is to quantify the

22 additional costs being incurred and to recommend a disallowance. The first element for

38

1 quantification is the average cost of storage for the month of March. Exhibit A-15

2 (MHR-1) shows the March net cost of storage to be $99,534,117 on Line 17, which when

3 divided by 13,368,032 Mcf on Line 2 results in an average cost of $7.4457/Mcf.

4 Conversion from Mcf to Dth using 1020 Btu results in approximately $7.2997/Dth.

5 The next element is to quantify the volumes and weighted average cost per Dth. The

6 total purchases on a monthly basis for March 2008 were 5,547 MDth as shown on

7 Exhibit RRC-1 (Page 1 of 2). A purchase from Supplier C on Vector for 620,000 Dth

8 was from an Index priced deal made on 11/22/05. Another 174,000 Dth was from

9 Imbalance Gas/Misc. Purch. shown on Exhibit A-9. The total monthly discretionary

10 purchases for March amounted to 4,752,300 Dth. Data for the Deal Date, Supplier,

11 Pipeline and Monthly Quantity was obtained from Exhibit A-10 (DWH-9) and the

12 Delivered Cost was obtained from Exhibit A-9 (DWH-8). Details of monthly

13 discretionary purchases for March are as follows:

14 2/21/08 Supplier A Vector 620,000 $9.742415 2/21/08 Supplier B GL 620,000 9.270016 2/21/08 Supplier E GL 288,300 9.248917 2/21/08 Supplier F Trunkline 465,000 9.340618 2/21/08 Supplier G Trunkline 317,750 9.063619 2/22/08 Supplier G Trunkline 333,250 9.345320 2/21/08 Supplier N Vector 620,000 9.73482122 Total & Average Weighted Cost 3,264,300 9.44382324 2/26/08 Supplier A Trunkline 620,000 9.350525 2/26/08 Supplier B Trunkline 620,000 9.340326 2/26/08 Supplier D Trunkline 248,000 9.34052728 Total & Average Weighted Cost 1,488,000 9.3446

29

39

1 Q. WHAT IS YOU RECOMMENDATION REGARDING THE MARCH

2 PURCHASES?

3 A. I am recommending a disallowance of $4,282,111 relating to my first conclusion

4 regarding estimates of March purchase requirements. A more reasonable estimate would

5 have reduced the 2/21-22/08 purchases. The calculations supporting this disallowance

6 are as follows:

7 1,241 MMcf + 717 MMcf = 1,958 MMcf x 1,020 Btu = 1,997,160 Dth

8 Average weighted cost for 2/21/08 purchases was $9.4438 - storage cost9 of $7.2997 = $2.1441

1011 1,997,160 Dth x $2.1441 = $4,282,111

12 I am also recommending a disallowance of $3,042,811 relating to my second conclusion

13 that none of the 2/26/08 purchases were necessary. The calculations are as follows:

14 Average weighted cost for 2/26/08 purchases was $9.3446 - storage cost15 of $7.2997 = $2.04491617 1,488,000 Dth x $2.0449 = $3,042,811

18 Both of these recommendations are grounded on information available to Consumers at

19 the time it made the decision to make these purchases.

20 I am recommending a minimum total disallowance of $7,324,922 even though it is my

21 firm belief that none of the 4,752,000 Dth of March incremental purchases were

22 necessary at a total cost of $10,041,797. Consumers’ estimated storage availability of

23 21,180 MMcf minus the actual storage use of 15,391 MMcf from Exhibit A-2 yields

24 5,789 MMcf of unused storage in a 7% CTN March.

25 Q. DOES THAT CONCLUDE YOUR TESTIMONY?

26 A. Yes.

2007-08 Purchase MethodsMMBtu (000's)

Fixed Price Monthly Total

April 10,590 16,873 27,463

May 10,942 11,239 22,181

June 10,590 11,407 21,997

July 10,944 10,699 21,643

Sub-Total 43,066 50,218 93,284

4-Month Percentages 46.2 53.8

August 15,103 5,977 21,080

September 18,099 2,929 21,028

October 17,447 617 18,064

Sub-Total 50,649 9,523 60,172


7-Month Subtotal 93,715 59,741 153,456


November 12,003 2,529 14,532

December 11,783 4,195 15,978

January 11,784 5,495 17,279

February 10,588 1,381 11,969

March 11,317 5,547 16,864

Sub-Total 57,475 19,147 76,622


Annual Total 151,190 78,888 230,078

Annual Percentages 65.7 34.3

Exhibit RRC-1 (FJH-1)Page 1 of 2

MPSC Case No. U-15041-R

2006-07 Purchase MethodsMMBTU (000's)

MonthlyFixed

Month Price NYMEX Index Mid-Month Total

April 5045 1884 14016 20945May 4913 2257 13220 20390June 4755 1284 12790 18829July 4914 1327 13217 19458 Sub-Total 19627 6752 53243 79622

Four Month 24.6 8.5 66.9Percentages

August 8268 1327 9854 19449September 8001 1284 9536 18821October 13308 0 6141 19449 Sub-Total 29577 2611 25531 57719

Three Month 51.3 4.5 44.2Percentages

Seven Month 49204 9863 78774 137341Subtotal

November 9421 2745 2850 15016December 9735 620 2697 13052January 9734 3314 1147 14195February 8792 1260 1036 1139 12227March 9735 0 7967 17702 Sub-Total 47147 7939 15697 1139 72192

Five Month 65.7 11.0 21.7 1.6Percentages

Annual Total 96621 17302 94471 1139 209,533

Annual 46.1 8.3 45.1 0.5Percentages



Identical To:Exhibit RRC-2 (FJH-2)

Page 1 of 1MPSC Case No. U-14402-R



September Cost Comparison

(A) (B) (C) (D) Cost

Fixed Price Million $Index WACOG Volume (B)-(A)x(C)

Trunkline $5.40 $7.16 8,823 $15.5

PEPL $4.73 $5.78 3,162 $ 3.3

GL $4.80 $6.40 4,644 $ 7.4

Vector $5.29 $6.62 1,512 $ 2.0

$28.2

October Cost Comparison

CostFixed Price Million $

Index WACOG Volume (B)-(A)x(C)

Trunkline $6.39 $7.26 8,448 $ 7.3

PEPL $5.32 $5.80 3,267 $ 1.6

GL $5.30 $6.65 4,170 $ 5.6

Vector $6.24 $6.66 1,562 $ 0.7

$15.2

of 3

15041R-RRC-CE-24

• Question:

RRC-13 Please provide the following regarding Peak Day:

a. Provide the calculations made to determine Peak Day for 1/31/08, 2/29/08, and3/31/08.

b. Provide all actual days in history for 80 HDD in January, 65 HDD in February and 50HDD in March.

c. Provide the actual days in history for the most HDD occurring in the last 7 days inJanuary, February and March.

d. State whether the Company recognizes a Base Load for GCRlGCC customers and howit is calculated.

e. State whether the Company recognizes a Use Factor per HDD for GCRlGCCcustomers and how it is calculated.

Response:

Peak Day LoadSales & Choice

100210~3597

•a) 1/31/08

End User transport

Peaker SalesMCVFUEL & LOSS

2/28/08

80HDD

MMcf/d80 HDD x 33.80 MMcf + 119 = 2823

HDD80 HDD x 4.48 MMcf +81 = 439

HDD50% x 200 CONNECTED LOADFTCONTRACTEXPECTED VALUE

65HDD

100210

~3023

•


End User transport


MMcf/d65HDDx33.80 MMcf +119= 2316

HDD65 HDD x 4.48 MMcf + 81 = 372


0411.0059



100210~2449

•3/31/08


End User transport


50HDD

MMcf/d50 HDD x 33.80 MMcf + 119 = 1809

HDD50 HDD x 4.48 MMcf. + 81 = 305


Page 2 of 3

•

•

b) See attached data sort from 1960 through April 2008. There have been numerous windadjusted days near the design temperatures. The consequences of failure are too dire togamble with failure.

c) See attached data sort from 1960 through April 2008.

d) Yes, the Company recognizes both a Base Load and Use Factors per HDD. The factorsare computed in the following steps.

#1) After each winter, Gas Control assembles the daily gas deliveries to its city gates(removing any known electric generation loads), weather data, and calendar data.Stepwise linear regressions are completed. These regressions provide the baseuse, use per wind adjusted heating degree day and the peak day load that wouldhave occurred if an 80 HDD peak day had occurred. Graphs of the last fourteenyears of regressions through March 2007 that were conducted are attached.

#2) The projected 80 HDD values for the last twelve winters were plotted versustime. A power fit regression was performed on the data and a projection of the80 HDD city gate loads for the next 5+ years was made. The graph andregression fit are attached.

#3) City gate base loads from the annual regressions vary from 400 MMcf/d to 150MMcf/d. The recent value has been about 200 MMcf/d.

#4) The growth rate of the projected 80 HDD load is then calculated and used toescalate the base load values. The base load is assumed to grow at the sameproportionate rate as the peak load is growing over the planning time period.

#5) Using the peak load values from step #2 and the base load values from step #4one can plot the city gate load versus wind adjusted HDD for each of the years inthe planning time period. The graph dated 4/27/07, that was used for the 2007/08winter operation is attached. It is titled Predicted City Gate Load per DegreeDay.

#6) The base loads and use factors per HDD were then proportioned between theGCRlGCC and the end user groups that comprise the city gate loads. Theattached document titled Peak Day Load Estimate per Customer Group shows theprocess and values over the planning period.

04110060



•

•

•

Page 3 of 3

e) See the response to 15041R-RRC-CE-24d.

(NOTE: Attached are numbered documents: 04110062 through 04110082 )

~l.·~UDale C PuckettOctober 21, 2008

Gas Management Services Department

04110061



•January Heating Degree Days above 70, Wind Adjusted HOD above 75

15041 R - RRC - CE - 24 b

•

•

1/19/19941/21/19841/17/19821/18/19941/15/19721/20/1985

'1960 through 2008 data

76.3673.8872.3672.3272.2871.32

80.3677.8876.3676.3276.2875.32

04110062



•

•

•

February Heating Degree Days above 60, Wind Adjusted HOD above 64

_.«:iilililill__2/17/1979 68.06 72.06

2/3/1996 66.10 70.102/2/1976 65.14 69.14

2/10/1982 64.86 68.862/10/1994 64.22 68.22

2/1/197'1 64.16 68.162/9/1979 64.04 68.042/2/1961 63.96 67.962/3/1985 63.70 67.702/4/2007 63.44 67.442/4/1996 63.28 67.282/2/1996 63.08 67.082/2/197'1 63.02 67.022/2/1985 62.94 66.94

2/26/1963 62.78 66.782/5/2007 62.12 66.122/6/1982 61.82 65.82

2/10/1979 61.60 65.602/6/1988 61.34 65.342/5/1979 61.16 65.162/5/1995 60.98 64.982/6/2007 60.98 64.98

2/21/1963 60.94 64.942/12/1967 60.82 64.82

2/4/1978 60.74 64.742/7/1967 60.72 64.72

2/22/1963 60.64 64.642/18/1979 60.60 64.60

2/7/1972 60.58 64.582/12/1981 60.16 64.16

1960 through 2008 data

15041R - RRC - CE - 24 b

04110063



•

•

•

March Heating Degree Days above 45, Wind Adjusted HDD above 49.

March Heating Degree Days above 45, Wind Adjusted HOD above 49

"j!,

3/1/1962 59.10 63.103/3/2003 58.96 62.963/8/1996 5728 61.283/2/1978 56.08 60.083/2/1962 55.92 59923/7/1986 55.58 59.583/1/1980 55.42 59.423/1/1967 53.74 57.743/2/1980 53.46 57.463/9/1996 53.44 57.443/7/1996 53.26 57.263/4/2002 52.96 56.963/4/1978 52.88 56.883/8/1986 52.60 56.603/3/1982 52.42 56.42

3/12/1984 52.30 56.303/24/1974 52.28 56.283/11/1960 52.26 56.26

3/9/2003 52.08 56.083/6/2007 51.96 55963/8/1984 51.62 55.623/3/1996 5162 55.62

3/14/1993 51.46 55.463/5/1978 51.30 55.303/7/1999 51.00 55.003/4/1960 5098 54.983/6/1960 50.98 54.983/511960 50.84 54.843/1/1963 50.80 54.803/7/1984 50.78 54.783/1/1960 50.48 54.48

3/10/2003 49.92 53.923/7/1978 4992 53.923/9/1984 49.86 53.863/8/1999 49.76 53.763/2/1960 49.62 53.62 .3/9/1960 49.62 53.62

3/25/1960 49.60 53.603/23/1965 49.58 53.58

3/3/1962 49.42 53.423/8/1960 49.30 53.303/1/1978 49.22 53.22

3/11/1979 49.16 53.163/8/1982 48.98 52.98

3/12/1992 48.94 52.943/11/1992 48.80 52.803/11/1998 48.74 52.743/12/1960 48.62 52.623/17/1967 48.60 52.60

3/7/1989 48.32 52.323/7/1960 48.30 52.303/2/1989 48.30 52.30

3/11/1984 48.08 52.083/11/1969 47.96 51.96

3/9/1978 47.92 51.923/2/1995 47.92 51.923/8/1967 47.90 51.903/6/2003 4786 51.863/4/1962 47.80 51.80

3/20/1986 47.62 51.623/5/1972 47.60 51.603/3/1960 47.46 51.46

3/18/1967 47.40 51.403/3/2005 47.30 51.30

3/13/1960 47.28 51.283/2/2003 47.28 51.28

3/26/1996 47.24 51.243/25/1974 47.20 51.20

3/1/1986 47.14 51.143/3/1972 47.10 51.10


15041R - RRC - CE - 24 b

041.1.0064



•

•

•

March Heating Degree Days above 45, Wind Adjusted HOD above 49.

}Ti ;. ·.··W!o!:f;.~lilR!:ljl'ff.)Dr·3/23/1983 47.10 51.10

3/6/1982 47.08 51083/20/1965 47.08 51.083/2/2005 46.98 50.98

3/26/2001 46.78 50783/5/1982 46.72 50.72

3/12/1980 46.66 50.663/10/1996 46.60 5060

3/6/1978 46.54 50.543/13/1993 46.26 50.26

3/7/1982 46.18 50.183/13/1968 46.14 50.14

3/4/1990 46.10 50.103/19/1965 46.10 50.10

3/9/1975 46.10 50.103/10/1998 46.08 50.083/2/1963 46.00 50.003/9/1972 45.98 49.98

3/10/1972 45.96 49.963/10/1984 45.84 49.84

3/3/1995 45.78 49.783/6/1996 45.78 49.78

3/24/1983 45.72 49.723/8/1970 45.64 49.643/6/1990 45.58 49.58

3/15/1979 45.48 49483/24/1965 45.42 49.423/12/1993 45.38 49.38

3/8/2005 45.32 49323/18/1993 45.32 49.32

3/9/1995 45.30 49.303/6/1999 45.26 49.26

3/13/1992 45.22 49.223/8/2008 45.14 49.143/9/1971 45.10 49.10

3/15/1970 45.10 49.103/4/1996 4508 49.083/1/1984 45.04 49043/1/1989 45.04 4904


15041R - RRC· CE· 24 b

041.:10065



15041 R - RRC-CE-24 c

• Highest Heating Degree Days by Date: Last seven days of month1960 through 2008

January Date DD Wind Adjusted HDD25 1/25/2004 62.10 66.1026 1/26/1966 58.28 62.2827 1/27/1986 62.64 66.6428 1/28/1966 65.78 69.7829 1/29/1966 63.92 67.9230 1/30/1977 58.14 62.1431 1/31/1971 63.66 67.66

February Date DD Wind Adjusted HDD22 2/22/1963 60.64 64.6423 2/23/1989 55.08 59.0824 2/24/1967 54.72 58.7225 2/25/1993 57.90 61.9026 2/26/1963 62.78 66.7827 2/27/1963 56.86 60.8628 2/28/1994 51.78 55.78

March Date DD Wind Adjusted HDD25 3/25/1960 49.60 53.60

• 26 3/26/1996 47.24 51.2427 3/27/1996 44.78 48.7828 3/28/1970 37.06 41.0629 3/29/1964 39.66 43.6630 3/30/1969 43.64 47.6431 3/31/1969 40.96 44.96

• 04110066



2000--, - - -- r

I 1 37.25 MMCF/DEGREE DAY I

--, -1- r

-LL(.)

~ 2000-....

•a.. 1500 -j -1- - -I- I- -j - - - 1500....:::>0w....e:((!) 1000 - - -j - - I- -j - - -1- - - I- -j - - - 1000>-f= Fit Results

(.)Fit 1: Linear, Y=B*X+AEquation Y = 37.25319874 * X + 175.4780343Number of data points used = 151

• Average X = 33.4192500 -I- I- Average Y = 1420.45 500

Residual sum of squares = 537114Regression sum of squares = 3.45573E+OO7Coef of determination, R-squared = 0.984695Residual mean square, sigma-hat-sq'd = 3604.8

OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1,2006 - MARCH 31, 2007

f::'«C-n3500 - - - - - - - - - _ - _I , I' r:: 3500

• I I I I

I·

3156

3000 - - - - - 3000I I I I I I

• • • Actual

Regression------ STDeviation = 59.7

2500 "I -I- I "I -1- - - - 2500

\-VIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY041.1.0067

o

•1

i

io 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

o



• OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1, 2005 - MARCH 31, 2006

3500 3500

30003000

37.1'MMCF/DEGREE DAY2500 --l -1- l. --l -1- - - - - 2500-LL

U~~ 2000 2000- -j -I- t- -j - r- -j - - -

~ 1500 I -1- -,- I- I - - - 1500a..I-::::>aUJ 1000 - - - - - - - - - 1000l- I I I I I

«(!)

>-t: 500 I I I I I I

-~ 500- - - - - - - -u

--j ~0 I

I~oI

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY

• 041.10068



fi?C-J";,:3 'f IS

•OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1, 2004 - MARCH 31, 2005

3500 3500

30003000

39.0 'MMCF/DEGREE DAY2500 ..J -I- I- ..J -1- ..J - - - 2500....-..

LL(.)~::E 2000 "1 -1- - r - - r "1 - 2000-- ~ - -/,

-1500 I - I - -I- I I - - - 1500D-r- I:::>0w 1000 - - - - - - - - - 1000

~I I I I I

~ 500 I I I I I 500- - - - - - - - - - -U

0--+----+----+----+----+-----f------11----+-----+--0

o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

•WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY

041.10069



•{{~;c·

'! of ir;

OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1, 2003 - MARCH 31, 2004

3500 35C

30e3000

37.5 IMMCF/OEGREE OAY2500 - '- •1 I .. L -- ...l ...l - 25C-u..

(J I

::E •::E 2000 r - - - 20C'-" -1 - I - ,- "1

-::J 1500 - - -- - - - - I - I- I - - - 15Ca. -JI-::J0W 1000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10C

~~ 500

I I I I I ISOC- - - - - - - - - - -

()

041.10070

8070

\y

6050403020

'NINO ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGRF

o

o -+-----i-I----+----j-----j-----+-----+------t-----t-- 0

10

•



9":(" , )es" ( I;

e:>UTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1,2002 - MARCH 31,2003

3000

35003360

3000

3500

40.1 IMMCF/DEGREE DAY,-.. 2500 --J -I- I- --J -1- - - --J - - - 2500LL. •

I •••U • ,.~

~ I• •6 2000

• ••--j -I- t- t- --j - - - 2000

•~ 1500 -I - - - -I- I" -I - - - 1500 '

a. I

I-:::l0w 1000 - - - - - - - - - - - 1000

~I I I I I I

~ 500 I I I I I I 500- - - - - - - - - - -

U

o ---+-----+-----+----+----+---1-----+-----+----1-- 0

•o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

WI~~D ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY

041.10071

80



•f<r~C-13

1" o( I,

OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1, 2001 - MARCH 31,2002

3500 - - - - -I

-------I

3500

3000 I I I I I I I 3000- - - - - -

I I A37.1 ry1MCFID~GREE 01 Y

.- 2500 ...J -1- l- ...J -1- ...J - - - 2500LLU~

6 2000 ., -I- I"'" ~I- I"'" ., - - - 2000

• !5 1500 "I - - - I - r "I - - - 1500a.. I

!5 •

0LU 1000 - - - - - - - - - - 1000

~I 1 I I I I

~ 500 I I I I I I 500- - - - - - - - -U

8010 20 30 40 50 60 70WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY

o

O-.+----t---+-------Ir-----+----t----t---+-----+-O

• 041.10072



• fJ701 f')

OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1, 2000 - MARCH 31, 2001

3500 3500

3000 1 1 I I I I I 3000- - - -

1 1 I

36.8 ry1MCF/D~GREE D~Y•

-.. 2500 ~ -I- I- -J -1- -J - - - 25001.J:>

_000 -j -I- t- -j t- -j - - - 2000

-::> 1500 -I -1- - I - - -

I- 1- -I - - - 1500

l.-::>:)1J 1000 - - - - - - - - - - 1000- I 1 I I I I

~)0-

1 1 I I I 1 500- 500 - - - - - - - - - - - - --J

O-+---t------+---+---t-----t----+---t----+-O

• o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY041.10073



.UTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATlsONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1, 1999 - MARCH 31, 2000

3500 3500

500

100C

1500

2000

3000

2500

- - - -I

...J _ _ _

I - - -

-1

- r

- -I

-1-

-1- _...J

-I

I I 1

38.4 ty1MCF/D~GREE D~Y

- -1

-1-

-1-

-1-

-I

3000

~>- 500

•

-.25001-~~

~2000

::> 15001--::>::>lJ 1000

-:.>

O-t----+---+---f-----+---+----+---+-----+-O

•o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY80

041.1.0074



•OUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATION

BASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1,1998 - MARCH 31,1999

3500 3500

3000 I I I I I I I 3000- - - -

I I I37.0 fy1MCF/D~GREE D~Y

•-.2500 ...J -1- l- ...J -I- • ...J 2500- - - - -.L •:..>

.1_000""'1 -I- t- - - - t- ""'1 - - - 2000

I .

::l 1500 -, -I

- -I

- .1- -I - - - 15001--::l •:>.u 1000 - - - - - - - - - - - - 1000

I I I I I I-~>- 500 I I I I I I 500- - - - - - - - - - -- I:..>

O-+---+----,----+----t----+----t----+-----f------I-O

• o 10 20 30 40 50

WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED ;""'E60 70 80f'""cr ~Y

04110075



(.15('(0 ,)f 15

.UTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM NOVEMBER 1,1997 - MARCH 31,1998

3500 3500

3000 I I I I I 1 3000- - - - -

I I I

36.5 ry1MCF/D~GREE D~Y

-.2500 .....J -1- L- .....J .....J - - - 2500L)~:>::,.. 2000 -j -I- t- - - t- -j - - - 2000

•:::> 1500 1 - I- - - I" I,- - - 1500

LI

-:::>:>u 1000 - - - - - - - - - - 1000- I I I I I I

~)-

I I I I 1 I- 500 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 500-)

80

04110076

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAYo

0-+---+----t---t-----+---+----+---f----4--0

•



fJC/ :3fH or h

FUTPUT ADJUSTED FOR WEEKENDS, HOLIDAYS AND RADIATIONBASED ON DATA FROM OCTOBER 1,1996 - MARCH 31,1997

3500 ---- -350(

3000 I I I I , I 300(- - - -

I I I

36.1~MCF/D~GREE OfY~2500

FO DEGRE DAY> 0250(-I -1- L -I -1- - - L - - -I - - -

L.L0~

6 2000 """"1 -I- t- - - """"1 - - - - 200(

~1500 '25.3 MMCF/DEGREE DAY - 150(I -I - - '-FORDEGREE DAY <10a.

l-::>0w 1000 - - - - - - - - "- - - - - 100(

g , I I I I

~•

500 - I I I I , I 500- - -- - - - - "- - - - - --0

80oo --+---1 I-------+---------+-------+---+---t-- 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

WIND ADJUSTED WEIGHTED DEGREE DAY

•



,,~,,'1

'-.I..;

~

'1~

1'''\

;~~::.:::

LO

AD

FOR

EC

AST

SB

ASE

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% BASE SALES LOAD 59.8% 61.7% 60.7% 60.8% 60.8% 60.7%% BASE TRANSPORT LOAD 40.2% 38.3% 39.3% 39.2% 39.2% 39.3%

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•

SALES BASE LOAD MMCF/D 120 123 122 122 122 122SALES WEATHER SENSITVE LOAD MMCF/D 2704 2708 2712 2716 2720 2723

TOTAL 2823 2832 2834 2838 2842 2845

TRANSPORT BASE LOAD MMCF/D 80 77 79 79 79 79TRANSPORT WEATHER SENSITIVE LOAD MMCFID 358 359 359 360 360 361

TOTAL 439 435 438 439 439 440

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SALES BASE LOAD MMCFID 120 123 122 122 122 122SALES WEATHER SENSITVE LOAD MMCF/D 2197 2200 2203 2207 2210 2213

TOTAL 2316 2324 2325 2329 2332 2335

TRANSPORT BASE LOAD MMCF/D 80 77 79 79 79 79TRANSPORT WEATHER SENSITIVE LOAD MMCF/D 291 292 292 292 293 293

TOTAL 372 368 371 371 372 372

SALES BASE LOAD MMCFID 120 123 122 122 122 122SALES WEATHER SENSITVE LOAD MMCFID 1690 1693 1695 1698 1700 1702

TOTAL 1809 1816 1817 1820 1822 1824

TRANSPORT BASE LOAD MMCF/D 80 77 79 79 79 79TRANSPORT WEATHER SENSITIVE LOAD MMCF/D 224 224 225 225 225 226

TOTAL 304 301 303 304 304 305

•NOTE: NUMBERS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING• SOURCE: GCR/END USER % OF WINTER INCREMENTAL LOAD, 2006/07 ACTUALS (DCP 09/17/07)_. SOURCE: DCP PREDICTED CITY GATE LOAD PER DEGREE DAY ANALYSIS (4/27/07)JULY LOADS BASED ON GAS FORECAST 2007-2013, DATED 8/20107

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e4



1504IR-RRC-CE-20

• Question:

RRC-9 Please explain in detail why there are so many differences between Scenario #5 onExhibit A-29 in Case No. U-15454 compared to Exhibit A-13. These include 2,399 versus1,441 for others; 21,180 versus 23,740 for GCR/GCC; and 23,579 versus 25,181 for TotalWithdrawals even though Total Booked Inventory was 3,094 greater that Planned NormalInventory.

Response:

Scenario 5 on Exhibit A-29 in the 2008-2009 Plan Case No. U-15454 is a cold weatherscenario assuming a normal November-February and a design cold March. As has beendiscussed previously, weather is not truly normal throughout a period of time even if it wasnormal on average. In contrast to Scenario 5 on Exhibit A-29, Exhibit A-13 in the currentreconciliation case is based on an assessment using actual 2/24/08 inventory, projected to2/29/08 and then a 4% Design March. As shown on Mr. Howard's Exhibit A-3, weatherfrom November 1, 2007 through February 29, 2008 was not normal throughout the period.Consequently, it is reasonable to expect that Scenario 5 would be different than Exhibit A-13even if they were for the same year. The question is asking for a comparison of two thingsthat are not the same. In general there are many reasons why the plan for 2008/09 will notmatch exactly the actuals for 2007/08. With regard to the 2007/2008 GCR year, mytestimony in this case describes a number of reasons for differences between the 2007/08Plan and the 2007/08 actual.

•

··~(aMDale C PuckettOctober 21, 2008

• Gas Management Services Department

04110053



l504lR-RRC-CE-27

• Question:

RRC-16 Please state if the Model was used for any of the data on Exhibit A-14, and howthe use would relate to the testimony on Page 14, Line 20 through Page 16, Line 17.

Response:

Exhibit A-14 identifies a number of factors related to storage field status in late February andMarch. The status shown is summarized in my testimony at page 18, line 1 through page 20,line 4. Page 14, line 20 through page 16, line 17 discusses how the actual 2/24/2008 storageinventories were determined and why they were assessed on a field by field basis. TheSendout Model was not used for any of the data on Exhibit A-14 nor was it involved in thetestimony related to Page 14, Line 20 through Page 16, Line 17.

•

• Gas Management Services Department

."1 0 /'~i C.J(! ;'t-e~~11Dale C PuckettOctober 21, 2008

041.10085



•

•

•

15041R-RRC-CE-12

Question:

RRC-1 Please provide copies of the normal winter plan, design cold winter plan and designwarm winter plan developed in late October/early November (Page 5, Lines 10-12).

Response:

See Attachment


.~~ cC2~ffDale C PuckettOctober 21, 2008


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15041R-RRC-CE-13

• Question:

RRC-2 Please provide copies of updated operating plans which were developed III earlyDecember, early January, early February, and early March (Page 7, Lines 3 and 4).

Response:

See Attachment


•

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15041R-RRC-CE-14

Question:

RRC-3 Please provide copies of the partial updates which were completed near the end of eachmonth (Page 9, Lines 12 and 13).

Response:

See Attachment


Dale C PuckettOctober 21, 2008


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~



STATE OF MICHIGAN

BEFORE THE MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

* * * * *

In the Matter of the Application of )CONSUMERS ENERGY COMPANY )for a Reconciliation of Gas Cost Recovery ) Case No. U-15041-RCosts and Revenues for the 12-month )period April 2007 through March 2008 and a )Reconciliation of pension and OPEB )costs for 2006 and 2007 )_________________________________________ )

PROOF OF SERVICE

The undersigned certifies that on February 3, 2009 he served a copy of The Testimony

and Exhibits of Frank J. Hollewa on Behalf of the Residential Ratepayer Consortium on the

parties listed below by electronic mail at each of their e-mail addresses shown below.

______________________________________ David L. Shaltz (P 29330)

H. Richard Chambers Vincent J. LeoneAttorney for Consumers Energy Gas Co. Attorney for the MPSC [email protected] [email protected]@cmsenergy.com

Donald E. Erickson Don L. KeskeyAssistant Attorney General Attorney for MCAAAfor Attorney General Michael Cox [email protected]@michigan.gov

Mark E. CumminsAdministrative Law [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]







testimony and exhibits of frank j. hollewa on behalf …

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