texas drought assessment and forecasting
DESCRIPTION
Texas Drought Assessment and Forecasting . David R. Maidment Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin. Water Web Services Jamboree University of Texas at Austin 20 March 2012. Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). http://www.ercot.com/news/mediakit/maps/. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Texas Drought Assessment and Forecasting
David R. MaidmentCenter for Research in Water Resources
University of Texas at Austin
Water Web Services JamboreeUniversity of Texas at Austin
20 March 2012
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Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
http://www.ercot.com/news/mediakit/maps/
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ERCOT Counties and Power Plants
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Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Source: John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University
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Weekly Change in SPI
Source: John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University
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http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/ciess/files/Water_Forum_01_Tapley.pdf Source:
(Byron Tapley, UT Center for Space Research)
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Ensemble Streamflow Simulations for 2012Produced by National Weather Service, distributed by University of Texas at Austin and Kisters
• 348 forecast points– Including reservoir inflows
• 11 basins• Based on weather 1959-
2009– 50 scenarios of daily flows for
each point generated from an NWS rainfall-runoff model (with reservoirs included)
• 90+ days horizon from today (to end of summer)
• Updated weekly
BasinsBrazosBrazos-ColoradoColoradoColorado-LavacaGuadalupeLavacaNechesSabineSan AntonioSan JacintoTrinity
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Jan DecJuly
Overlay Plot of 2010, 2011, 2012 for Jan to DecemberColorado River at Austin
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Jan MayMarch
Overlay Plot of 2010, 2011, 2012 for Jan to MayColorado River at Austin
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5%, 95%, Normal, and Observed Discharge, 2007 – 2012Colorado River at Austin
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Accumulated Inflow, 2007 – 2012Highland Lake System
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Accumulated Inflow, 2007 – 2012Highland Lake System
30 year normal lake accumulation
actual lake accumulation