texoma regional economic dashboard report 4qtr 2011

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Texoma Regional Economic DashboardBaseline Report

March 22, 2012

Purpose:The Texoma Regional Economic Dashboard project is designed to inform Workforce Development,

Economic Development, and Regional Planning professionals about the economic condition of the

Texoma Workforce Development Area. This dashboard will allow the partners, and other interested

parties a better understanding of the regions economy in order to plan for the future, identify strengths

and weaknesses, and apply for grants to execute projects that improve the regions infrastructure,

services, and workforce and economic development systems.

The dashboard provides historical perspective on a number of traditional and non-traditional data

points, gathered from multiple sources. These data points come from several strategically identified

types in order to give a more complete picture of the Texoma Region.

The data and analysis will help with the development of Workforce Solutions Texomas Strategic Plan;

the Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS); work plans for Economic Development

Entities; strategic plans for counties, cities, and school districts in the Region, as well as important labor

market information for employers and job seekers.

Definition of the Region:

For the purpose of the baseline report, the Texoma Region is defined as Cooke, Fannin, and Grayson

Counties in Texas. Plans are underway to gather data from a portion of Southeast Oklahoma in the near

future to get a better picture of the Texoma Labor Shed.

Report Format:

Cover Page

The report includes a cover page which shows a graphic representation for each of the indicators

included in the report. These graphics represent how each of the indicators changed in the period

covered.

= The indicator improved

= The indicator remained basically unchanged

= The indicator declined

Graphs

The remainder of the report is a series of graphs which represent the mature data points used to create

the report. Each of the graphs are dynamic, and the data set represented can be changed to allow more

in-depth analysis by the user. For the purpose of the release, the data points used are representative of

the region.


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Methodology:

Because no single indicator should be considered a barometer for a regional economy, the dashboard

project aligns multiple economic indicators to create a more accurate picture of the overall health of the

Texoma Regional economy. The indicators used come from four broad categories; Employment Related

Indicators, Public Assistance Related Indicators, Spending Related Indicators, and Miscellaneous

Indicators.

The data presented is based on a comparison of the same indicators during the same period in the

previous quarter, and the same period in the previous year.

Employment Related Indicators include:

Civilian Labor Force The labor force includes all persons classified as employed orunemployed. Employed persons - Persons 16 years and over in the civilian non-institutional

population who, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees; worked in their own

business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an

enterprise operated by a member of the family; and (b) all those who were not working but whohad jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent. Unemployed persons -

Persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment, were available for work, and had

made specific efforts to find employment.

Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as apercent of the labor force.

Public Assistance Indicators include:

TANF Enrollment The total number of designated groups of people certified to receiveTemporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) cash benefits as of cutoff in the month. A case

can include more than one person.

SNAP Enrollment The total number of designated groups of people certified to receiveSupplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits as of cutoff in the month. A casecan include more than one person.

Spending Related Indicators include:

Sales Tax Allocations The Sales Tax Allocations Report presents data about local sales and usetax allocation payments to local sales taxing jurisdictions. These net payments represent monies

identified for the local jurisdictions by quarter.

Hotel/Motel Taxable Sales The Hotel/Motel Taxable Sales Report presents hotel occupancytaxable receipts for hotels on a quarterly basis. These numbers are inclusive of hotels that file

monthly as well as those that file quarterly.


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For each of the indicators used, a threshold of change was set in order to determine if the indicator

improved, remained basically unchanged, or declined. The thresholds are as follows:

Indicator Type of Change Threshold

Civilian Labor Force Increase or decrease in the number of people. +/- 500

Unemployment Rate Increase or decrease in the percentage rate. +/- 0.25%

TANF Enrollment Increase or decrease in number of cases. +/- 50

SNAP Enrollment Increase or decrease in number of cases. +/- 500

Sales Tax Allocations Increase or decrease in total dollars. +/- 0.5%

Hotel/Motel Taxable Sales Increase or decrease in total dollars. +/- 3.0%

Project Partners:

The partners involved in the project are Workforce Solutions Texoma, Texoma Council of Governments,

and Denison Development Alliance. The three project partners are each responsible for certain data

elements. Once the data is processed, the team analyzes the data together. Each team member is able

to add their expertise and perspective to the data in order to produce a full analysis.

Historical Perspective:

In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research

(NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic

recession as:

"a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than

a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial

production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination bythe NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.

There is no argument the United States, Texas, and the Texoma Region have experienced challenging

economic times in the recent past. However; exactly when the Nation, the State, or the Region actually

entered into a Recession is a matter of debate. For the purpose of this report, the team researched this

question, and has determined:

United States:

According to the NBER, the US was in a recession from December, 2007 until June, 2009. A number of economic indicators continued their downward trend until January, 2010.

Texas:

According to both the Federal Reserve and Economist Ray Perryman the Texas economicdownturn started in late summer, 2008 probably August.

Sources lead the team to believe the recession in Texas ended in June, 2009, though a numberof indicators continued their downward trend until December, 2009.

Numerous economists agree Texas is either leading, or closely following, the country out of therecession.


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Texoma Region:

By analyzing the data points, the team has determined the Texoma Region has experienced aneconomy very similar to the State of Texas, and therefore entered a recession in late 2008 or

early 2009, and remained in recession until late 2009.

In creating this baseline report, the team gathered, aligned, and analyzed economic data back to 1998.

Annual Analysis, 2011:

Based on the data collected, and the analysis of the team, it appears the overall economic health of the

Region is better than it was this time last year. This is based on several factors.

Civilian Labor Force is up from 93,387 in the 4th Qtr. 2010, to 94,456 in the 4th Qtr. 2011.

Unemployment Rate is down from 8.0% in the 4th Qtr. 2010, to 7.2% in the 4th Qtr. 2011.

TANF Enrollment is down from 793 in the 4th Qtr. 2010, to 742 in the 4th Qtr. 2011.

SNAP Enrollment does not show a significant change 31,148 in the 4th Qtr. 2010, 31,066 in the 4th

Qtr. 2011.

Sales Tax Allocations are up from $6,429,640.53 in the 4th Qtr. 2010, to $7,217,337.53 in the 4th Qtr.

2011.

Hotel/Motel Taxable Sales are up from $4,783,783.24 in the 4th Qtr. 2010, to $5,835,735.41 in the 4th

Qtr. 2011.

Overall, the region is showing improvement in 2011, over 2010.

Most Recent Quarter Analysis, 4th Qtr., 2011

Based on the data collected, and the analysis of the team, it appears the overall economic health of the

Region is better than it was this time last quarter. This is based on several factors.

Civilian Labor Force does not show a significant change 94,447 in the 3rd Qtr. 2011, to 94,456 in the

4th Qtr. 2011.

Unemployment Rate is down from 8.4% in the 3rd Qtr. 2011, to 7.2% in the 4th Qtr. 2011.

TANF Enrollment is up from 680 in the 3 rd Qtr. 2011, to 742 in the 4th Qtr. 2011.

SNAP Enrollment does not show a significant change 30,787 in the 3rd Qtr. 2011, 31,066 in the 4th Qtr.

2011.

Sales Tax Allocations are up from $7,130,461.08 in the 3rd Qtr. 2011, to $7,217,337.53 in the 4th Qtr.

2011.


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Hotel/Motel Taxable Sales are down from $7,176,872.12 in the 3rd Qtr. 2011, to $5,835,735.41 in the

4th Qtr. 2011. This downturn is due to normal seasonality, and is slightly less than for the same Qtr. In

the last 2 years.

Overall, the region is showing improvement in 4th Qtr. 2011, over 3rd Qtr. 2011.

Future Releases:

The Texoma Regional Economic Dashboard will be released in two formats, a quarterly report that will

contain analysis of indicators available on a quarterly basis at minimum, and an annual report that will

contain analysis of the quarterly indicators and additional indicators available on an annual basis at

minimum.

texoma regional economic dashboard report 4qtr 2011

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