th dsv-panalpina market update · 2020. 11. 24. · dsv-panalpina market update november 18th -...

DSV-Panalpina Market update

November 18th - 2020

2 | DSV – Market update Air & Sea November 18th , 20202 |

Content

1 COVID-19 Overview

2 Ocean freight update

3 Airfreight update


Global COVID-19 Freight Restrictions OverviewGlobal cases are coming up with a second wave in Europe and Asia Pacific

Countries with Air restrictions border closed due to COVID (IATA)

For updates on: https://www.dsv.com/coronavirus/regional-operational-status

EUROPE

Europe lockdown: New coronavirus

rules country-by-country:

On Nov 7th has introduced new

restrictions in line with the restrictions

we experienced in the spring 2020.

UK: Transport of cargo is now affected

by the travel restrictions which the UK

government has imposed on Denmark.

Drivers, who are non-British residents or

who have been in Denmark during the

past two weeks, are not allowed to enter

the UK.

NORTH AMERICA

The Americas have been one of the

least effected regions. In the USA, there

are no restrictions on domestic and

cross border road freight. However,

capacity is still experiencing some

volatility, mainly in California, due to

decrease in the number of operators.

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina has resumed flights from

November 2nd

Brazil has reopened air borders. Limited

direct commercial flights are operating.

AFRICA and MIDDLE EAST

South Africa Easing Restrictions as Coronavirus Infections Drop and lift van on

international travel

Saudi Arabia will lift a coronavirus-related travel ban at the beginning of the new year

2021,

ASIA PACIFIC

China: Mass testing is underway in

Yunnan, China after the city confirmed

two imported cases of COVID-19

Indonesia Jakarta has been placed

back on lockdown starting September

14th for a minimum of 2 weeks in an

attempt to alleviate the capitol’s

overburdened healthcare systems.

Freight transportation activities will

continue as essential services but

delays should be expected

INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT.

India: No restrictions on Inter state &

Intra state passenger & goods

movement via Air. Railways stand

suspended until further

notice.

Sri Lanka: Curfew has been removed.

Bangladesh and Pakistan: Lock down

is open following SOPs

https://www.dsv.com/coronavirus/regional-operational-status


Ocean freightUpdate


Box shortage pushes up rates on headhaul trades and starts to affect backhaul

• Availability of empty containers might become restricted

for backhaul trades as carriers wants to reposition

empty 40’ boxes to Asia as fast as possible

• The SCFI has reached a record level since launch in

October 2009

• Shanghai - Melburne has become the most lucrative

trade out of China

• The box shortage in Asia predicted to last until

Chinese new year (on 12 February 2021)

Carrier income (in dollar cents) per nautical mile


Inactive container fleet continues to contract

• The inactive containership fleet

continues to contract as cargo

transportation demand remains

unusually strong for the time of

the year.

• A real low season did not

materialize and we approach the

end-of-year holiday period, with

volumes boosted by e-

commerce demand, in the US in

particular.

• The fast recovery in container

trade continue in the last quarter

of 2020

Inactive fleet Breakdown by non operating Owner / Carrier

Source Alphaliner –Inactive fleet overview


Asia Pacific is facing a large shortage of equipment

Exports South East Asia short on all type 20’/40’/40’HC

Thailand

Singapore

Cambodia

Indonesia

Vietnam

Exports North East Asia short on all type 20’/40’/40’HC

South Korea

Taiwan

Japan

Exports China short on all type 20’/40’/40’HC

All areas except Qingdao/Xingang and Lianyungang where there are 20” available

It is not expected a short term solution until middle of Feb 2020


Carrier Schedule reliability – Worst level ever recorded: 56%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Average delay of late vessels

2019

2020

Compare to last year, the schedule reliability is down 21.4%

Source: Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis – October 2020

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Schedule Reliability

2019

2020

Global Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Schedule

Reliability

2019 73,4% 73,6% 74,3% 76,6% 80,2% 83,5% 82,7% 78,7% 77,4% 79,1% 79,9% 76,2%

2020 68,4% 64,9% 70,3% 69,8% 74,9% 77.9% 75,4% 63,7% 56%

Change -5,0% -8,7% -4,0% -6,8% -5,3% -5,6%% -7,4% -15% -21%

Avg. delay

of LATE

vessels

2019 4,16 4,22 4,25 3,63 3,91 4,04 4,20 4,20 4,43 4,11 4,11 4,26

2020 4,87 5,17 4,75 4,92 5,16 4.63 4,47 4,44 4,75

Change 0,71 0,95 0,49 1,29 1,25 0,59 0,27 0,24 0,32


Global Schedule reliability – Top 15 carriers (worst ever)

• None of the top-15 deep sea

carriers recorded a Month to

Month improvement in schedule

reliability in September 2020

• All carriers registered double digits

declines of over 20% points

Source: Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis – October 2020


Ocean Freight Asia - Europe Rate increase by 50%, cargo restrictions for UK cargo due to congestions and haulage limitations Significant Peak Season Surcharge on December 1st

SCFI Levels Week 46-2020:

• Shanghai – North Europe: USD 1508/ TEU

• Shanghai – Mediterranean: USD1674/ TEU

Capacity moving to Transpacific trade is increasing

rates on ASIA to EUROPE trade

• There is growing evidence that capacity restrictions on

the Asia-Europe ocean trades, in terms of both vessels

and equipment, are a direct result of the transpacific

demand boom.

• There are widespread restrictions for UK cargo due to

port congestion and haulage limitations. Some carriers

have stopped booking acceptance for the UK while

others have increased UK add-ons and UK specific

PSS.

• According to new research from liner consultancy Sea-

Intelligence, recent capacity injections on the

transpacific are expected to limit the ability of carriers to

bring more slots and containers to the Asia-North

Europe trade.Source: SCFI Week 46

$1.300

$1.500

$1.700

$1.900

$2.100

$2.300

$2.500

$2.700

$2.900

$3.100

SCFI – North Europe WB Rate Index (US$/40ft)


Ocean Freight Asia - North AmericaMarket remains strong and rates remain steady compared to previous month

Restoration of volumes and

SCFI Levels Week 46-2020:

• Shanghai – US West Coast: USD 3887/ FEU

• Shanghai – US East Coast: USD 4676/ FEU

Rates are steady on record high level

• Lines are charging varying extra fees for guaranteed

space on top of the spot rates. USWC rates still remain

at record levels and USEC rates are also close to

historic highs

• he USWC and USEC are now straining under the

amount of imports being moved and we are seeing 10-

14 day dwell time at all terminals for local boxes and rail

moves

Source: SCFI November 2020

$1.800

$2.300

$2.800

$3.300

$3.800

SCFI Transpacific EB Rate Index (US$/40ft)


Ocean Freight Asia – Latam (East Coast)All time high rate levels

Allocation of space is a big problem in the trade

• East Cost under a lot of pressure for space due

volumes increase driven by commodities specially now

Q4 with the cotton and reefer harvest (industry

resumption after COVID19 and devaluation of currency)

• Most of the trades already suffered rates increase (we

are still receiving GRI announcements)

• Latam market keeps reactivating volumes after lock

down

Source: SCFI Week 46

$1.000

$1.500

$2.000

$2.500

$3.000

$3.500

$4.000

$4.500

SCFI to Santos Brazil (US$/40ft)


TRADE LANE COMMENTS RATES AND SPACE

ASIA to Europe

• Rates are increasing with strong demand . Historial highest levels

• Space is tight from China and there is equipment shortage (specially 40’)

• Bookings 16 days in advance needed

ASIA to NAM

• Rates at historical highest levels.

• Equipment shortage, specially in Vietnam and South east Asia.

• Space is full, situation is expected to remain until middle of February

Europe to NAM

• Rates are steady after adjustments on October 1st.

• Space is tight

• Equipment forecast needed, specially for reefer and Out Of Gauge Cargo.

Exports from India

• Rates:Trade uncertainties due to country political situation

• New service injection in end Oct 4,000 teu capacity which has been

saturated by strong market

ASIA to LATAM

• Several carriers are reporting equipment shortage in various locations,

especially in China. We recommend placing your booking’s a month in

advance as vessels are getting full quickly.

• Rates are on clear up trend.

INTRA ASIA

• Overall capacity is stable except oceania and India trade which have 50%

less capacity

• Equipment under serious shortage, continous GRI and rate increases

Ocean freight market overview


TRADE LANE COMMENTS Upcoming 12 weeks

ASIA to Europe

• Asia to North Europe: Year on Year will increase 4,5%

• Asia to Mediterranean Three blank sailing will occur in week 46 and 49, year

on year decrease -1,4%

ASIA to NAM• Asia to East coast: Increase capacity by 18,8%

• Asia to West coast: Capacity will increase year on year by 29,7%

Europe to NAM• North Europe to North America East coast: Increase by 10% year on year,

• Mediterranean to North America Est coast: Increase by 19,8% year on year

Exports from India • ISC to ASIA Decrease by -13% year on year

ASIA to LATAM • East Coast: Increases 8,6% Year on Year.

INTRA ASIA• Overall capacity reduced to Oceania and North Bound after a big increase

on week 46. Decrease by -12,6% Year on year

Ocean freight CAPACITY overview Nov 13th onwardsPlanned capacity growth on the transpacific in December will be four times higher than in the Asia-Europe trade


AirfreightUpdate


Global air cargo capacity declined 20% in the last two weeks compared to last year

Note: Thickness of arrows is representative of May 2020 capacity in metric tonnes, direct flights only; all flows indicate region-to-region capacity; regions are indicated by color coding; 1) Total cargo capacity includes widebody

passenger and all freighter flights; 2) 14 Oct – 27 Oct 2019, all dates measured in UTC; Source: Seabury Consulting Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Consulting analysis (October 2020) Source: Seabury

The Transpacific trade lane shows strong air cargo capacity increases in the last two weeks

and is now 2% higher compared to last year

Total air cargo capacity growth1, 12 – 25 Oct 2020 vs. same two weeks last year2

YoY growth, %

Global airtrade decline: -20%


Passenger belly capacity continues to recover but is still 61% below 2019 levels

• Freighter capacity dipped

during China’s Golden

week, but shows a strong

rebound in the last week

with freighter capacity at its

highest level this year;

freighter capacity is now at

+18% compared to last year

Note: Direct capacity only; All freighters and widebody passenger aircraft only, Date measured in UTC time; 1) Corrected for day-of-week fluctuations, smoothened for

clarification; 2) Comparing 27 Sep – 10 Oct 2020 to 29 Sep – 12 Oct 2019; 3) Comparing 27 Sep – 10 Oct 2020 to 13 Sep – 26 Sep 2020; Source: Seabury

Consulting Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Consulting analysis (October 2020)

Daily international cargo capacity, Mar – Oct 2020Thousand of tonnes


An increase of freighter capacity of roughly 30% drives Transpacific capacity growth

• The largest increase of

freighter capacity on

Transpacific is coming from a

68% increase for freighters

from Incheon to North

America; Transpacific belly

capacity is down roughly 50%

of 2019 levels

• 82% of Transpacific air cargo

capacity is currently handled

by freighters

Note: Aircraft considered “out of service” in case time between consecutive flights exceeded 120 hours (typical time for a C-check); Gaps between flights have been

verified to predominantly take place at carrier (maintenance) hubs; Source: Seabury Consulting Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Consulting analysis


US outbound air cargo capacity increased only for selected US regions in 2020

Source: Seabury

Notes: Showing cargo capacity of international freighter and widebody passenger flights; 1) October full month extrapolated based on 25 of the 31 days; 2) Showing selected airports within the US

region based on air cargo tonnage on October 2020; 3) 12-25 October 2020; 4) Comparing 12-25 Oct 2020 with 14-27 Oct 2019; 5) In thousand tonnes; Source: Seabury Consulting Capacity

Tracking database; Seabury Consulting analysis

International cargo capacity has increased strongly compared to last year for large freighter hubs ANC, CVG

and ORD; at the same time, some key passenger-focused US airports have decreased by around 50%


TRADE LANE COMMENTS RATES AND SPACE

Exports from

China / Hong Kong

• Market are steady these weeks with rates holding firm

• High rates, Major product launches are progressing well and the high-intensity

shipping cycle should continue all the way until Chinese New Year.

Exports from Vietnam

• Space contraints due to large part of the capacity was covered with belly.

• Rates in the rest of Asia are also climbing. Export volumes from many of the

major origins in SE Asia including BKK, HAN, and SGN are seeing massive

increases versus same period last year. .

Exports from

India/Bangladesh

• Lack of space and high rates,

• Limited capacity available and strong demand at the moment

Export from Europe

• Tight capacity on the TAWB with rates remaining at high levels. EU to US, in

particular, saw peak rates, while rates to SFO, ATL & ORD also increased.

Delays in transit and on the ground should be factored win when planning

transit time

Exports from NAM

• Capacity on the TAEB there are some constraints, TPWB also with volume

increases, and LATAM trades still seeing spikes in Demand while still suffering

from capacity crunch.

Air freight market overviewGround-handling issues are beginning to intensify in the US with major delays tied to breaking down freight

reported at all major gateways. Delays of 3-5 days are becoming common especially in ORD and LAX

th dsv-panalpina market update · 2020. 11. 24. · dsv-panalpina market update november 18th -...

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