thanatia and thermodynamic rarity : a way of assessing … 4,37e-01 kernite 2,61e-03 greenockite...
TRANSCRIPT
Edificio CIRCE / Campus Río Ebro / Mariano Esquillor Gómez, 15 / 50018 ZARAGOZA
Tfno. (+34) 976 761 863 / Fax (+34) 976 732 078 / web: www.fcirce.es / email: [email protected]
Thanatia and Thermodynamic Rarity : a way of Assessing the Mineral Resources Depletion
Antonio Valero and Alicia Valero
Oct 14, 2015 WRF, Davos
New materials for the “Green” Economy 2
Exponential consumption trend of minerals
Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
3
In summary…
World demand for all elements (especially the critical ones) is exponentially increasing.
Ore grades are abruptly declining and increasing the environmental impact of mining
Recycling is still very low for most elements. Even a 100% recycling is not enough to
satisfy demand.
4
Questions…
How is it possible that no global accounts for the degradation of the most critical and valuable minerals is carried out?
How can Thermodynamics help to understand the mineral depletion phenomenon?
5
2. THERMODYNAMICS AS
THE ECONOMICS OF
MATTER
6
A river, a glacier, a mine… have exergy, but with respect to what?
Some basic ideas of Thermodynamics 7
Exergy is a measure of distinction [kJ]
Exergy is a measure of an object’s rarity with respect to the surrounding commonness. The rarer (less concentrated) something is, the greater it stands out. Exergy accurately measures, in energy terms, the distinction of a piece of matter with respect to a given reference environment.
8
Some basic ideas of Thermodynamics
So what is commoness for
minerals?
9
THANATIA as a possible dead state of the Earth’s resources.
Suppose we imagine a possible state of the Earth
when all commercially exploitable resources have been consumed and dispersed.
From Greek “θάνατος” representing death (state).
How would be the composition of Thanatia’s crust?
10
11 Thanatia’s model
THANATIA CRUST The upper continental crust can be approximated to the average
mineralogical composition of the current earth’s crust. Composed of 292 common minerals o All resources have been extracted and dispersed o All fossil fuels have been burned.
Source: Valero D., A.; Valero, A. & Gómez, J. B. The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted continental crust Energy, 2011, 36, 694 – 707; Valero, A.; Agudelo, A. & Valero D., A. The Crepuscular Planet. Part I: A model for the exhausted atmosphere Proceedings of ECOS 2009, 2009
Quarz 2,29E+01 Forsterite 6,96E-03 Helvine/ Helvite 8,05E-05Albite 1,35E+01 Hedenbergite 6,82E-03 Strontianite 7,88E-05Oligoclase 1,19E+01 Chalcopyrite 6,64E-03 Dispersed Tb 7,00E-05Orthoclase 1,18E+01 Phlogopite 6,62E-03 Perovskite 6,94E-05Andesine 5,46E+00 Witherite 5,99E-03 Tridymit 6,30E-05Paragonite 3,96E+00 Pentlandite 5,75E-03 Cryolite 4,95E-05Biotite 3,82E+00 Cordierite 5,57E-03 Sulphur 4,72E-05Hydromuscovite/ Illite 3,03E+00 Pyrolusite 4,90E-03 Orpiment 4,55E-05Augite 3,00E+00 Fayalite 4,77E-03 Brookite 4,21E-05Hornblende (Fe) 2,63E+00 Anatase 4,46E-03 Eudialyte 4,04E-05Labradorite 2,50E+00 Francolite 4,35E-03 Carnallite 4,03E-05Nontronite 1,93E+00 Tourmaline 4,30E-03 Xenotime 3,70E-05Opal 1,24E+00 Orthite-Ce / Allanite 4,05E-03 Dawsonite 3,62E-05Ripidolite 1,20E+00 Lepidolite 3,99E-03 Wolframite 3,21E-05Almandine 1,04E+00 Gedrite 3,23E-03 Dispersed Lu 3,10E-05Muscovite 1,01E+00 Beryl 3,22E-03 Dispersed Tm 3,00E-05Sillimanite 9,97E-01 Pyrophyllite 3,22E-03 Stibnite 2,75E-05Epidote 9,06E-01 Rhodonite 3,04E-03 Copper 2,48E-05Kaolinite 8,36E-01 Magnesite 3,02E-03 Cerussite 2,21E-05Calcite 8,00E-01 Chloritoid 3,00E-03 Blomstrandite/ Betafite 2,05E-05Magnetite 7,95E-01 Ilmenorutile 2,96E-03 Sodalite 1,98E-05Riebeckite 5,74E-01 Ulexite 2,92E-03 Britholite 1,71E-05Beidellite 5,10E-01 Diadochic Ce 2,83E-03 Ferrotantalite 1,58E-05Ilmenite 4,71E-01 Jacobsite 2,72E-03 Ramsayite/ Lorenzenite 1,24E-05Titanite 4,46E-01 Clementite 2,64E-03 Anglesite 1,16E-05Clinochlore 4,37E-01 Kernite 2,61E-03 Greenockite 1,16E-05Sepiolite 3,48E-01 Bastnasite 2,54E-03 Chondrodite 1,12E-05Aegirine 3,04E-01 Colemanite 2,46E-03 Axinite -Fe 1,10E-05
Name Abundance, mass %Name Abundance,
mass % Name Abundance, mass %
Exergy
Zero Exergy
Technosphere
Current Earth with mineral deposits
Thanatia
Earth’s evolution
The exergy of mineral resources
12
Thanatia, would constitute the starting point for assessing the loss of mineral endowment on Earth!
Evolution of materials to Thanatia 13
NATURE/CRADLE
Resources Life cycle of a product
Services or products Exergy
Abatement processes
Emissions
Residues
THANATIA/ GRAVE
Solar energy
Wastes Effluents Emissions
Exergy
Replacement processes
Exergy
CRADLE TO GRAVE Real Exergy Cost: Embodied exergy/TEC cost
GRAVE TO CRADLE Hidden cost: Exergy replacement cost
14
How much would it cost to produce a commodity from Thanatia?
Exergy values are far removed from social perception of value.
The real quantity of energy required to extract and process a given mineral is much greater than the minimum thermodynamic exergy: Exergy cost or embodied exergy
The difference between the Exergy Cost and Exergy is the Exergy loss a measure of our TechnologicaI IGNORANCE !
Exergy & exergy cost of mineral resources
15
Actual exergy => Exergy cost (kJ)
Minimum thermodynamic exergy (kJ)
Applications of the Second
Law for mineral resources
assessment
16
Exergy
Zero Exergy
Technosphere
Current Earth with mineral deposits
Thanatia
Earth’s evolution
The exergy of mineral resources
17
Thanatia, would constitute the starting point for assessing the loss of mineral endowment on Earth!
Rarity
Thermod. Rarity
Ore grade xB xM xC
Natural Bonus
Mine to market cost
xL
Exergy (kJ) Thanatia
Landfills (Urban mining)
Mines (Commercial extraction)
Post-beneficiation (Ore Concentration)
x=1 x=0
Unattainable mining
Thermodynamic Rarity 18
2 costs: real (embodied exergy) and hidden/avoided costs (exergy replacement cost) o Embodied exergy accounts for the difficulty of mining and
refining a mineral. o Avoided costs: “natural bonus” for having minerals
concentrated in mines and not dispersed => measure of destruction of the mineral patrimony.
Thermodynamic Rarity
19
Rarity does only depends on
i. The concentration of the commodity in the market ii. The concentration of the mineral in the crust iii. The available technology to extract it.
o It can be calculated not only for commodities but any
device containing metals/minerals!
Thermodynamic Rarity
20
Thermodynamic rarity of some main ores of elements. In construction
H He
Li Be B C N O F Ne 558 260
Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar 47 638 1 1
K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr 1,227 3 23 1,191 5 16 18 10881 776 139 26 754,828 24,247 409
Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe 1,357 1,393 1,043 8,652 6,162 363,917 442 445 2,825,065
Cs Ba La Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn 39 336 485,910 7,642 103,087 691,420 28,455 37 493
Fr Ra Ac Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh Uus Uuo
Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu 620 873 670 4,085
Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr 1,090
>10,000 GJ/t 10,000-1,000 GJ/t 1,000-100 GJ/t <100 GJ/t
21
A new dimension in the criticality assessment of minerals
Economic importance
Supply risk
Thermodynamic rarity
Universal and objective (kJ)
Country dependent and
variable
22
How much is the yearly loss of the mineral exergy endowment of the Earth?
23
Mining and concentration
1% Smelting and
refining 6%
Coal 26%
Oil 25% Natural gas
18%
Non-fuel minerals
33%
DE LA TUMBA A LA CUNA A 2nd Law vision of global mineral resources: “exergy loss basket”
Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
CO2 and H20=> Thanatia
Dispersion=> Thanatia
1) Our planet is headed towards mineral depletion (best ore grades have been extracted and are dispersed in the biosphere)
This is not fatalism but science. It is Thermodynamics
Final reflections 24
oCan be used for assessing the rate of Loss of Mineral Endowment of the Planet or of Each Country
o In fact, it measures the Mineral Aging of the Planet, whose commercial death is represented by Thanatia!
Thermodynamic Rarity
25
Final reflections
3) The Circular Economy is a beautiful myth, but the Second Law of Thermodynamics is unavoidable:
“In each material cycle
something is lost because one cannot afford complete and cheap recycling. We can only yearn for a Spiral Economy, with the largest number of turns, but in the end spirals get diluted into Thanatia”
We propose a fractal tree for
each chemical element.
Final reflections
Technosphere
Thanatia
Geosphere
26
The ages of man Rare
Material intensity
Years 10000 BC 3300 BC 1300 BC 1500 AC 1900 1940 1950 2xxx (?)
Stone Age
Bronze Age
Iron Age
Coal Age
Oil Age
Nuclear Age
Stone Age
Periodic Table Age
This message was already given 45 years ago! 28
Now is time for Second Law Analysis 29
30
Sustainability is a journey, Thanatia a destiny!
On youtube (Spanish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6qi4bKRPe0 On youtube (English): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76eUJxPaqFU
CIRCE Headquarters – Campus Río Ebro - Zaragoza
200 people working together for innovation and sustainable development
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen and the 2nd Law
“The Entropy Law itself emerges as the most economic in nature of all natural laws... the economic process and the Entropy Law is only an aspect of a more general fact, namely, that this law is the basis of the economy of life at all levels. . ."
N. Georgescu-Roegen. The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971)
Interview by A. Valero with N. Georgescu-Roegen in 1991 http://habitat.aq.upm.es/boletin/n4/aaval.html
32
Yet the 2nd Law is only used in a metaphorical way. Ideas are never converted into numbers!
Thermodynamics Laws vs. Economics
First Law:
Corolary: Money is not a suitable resource depletion indicator.
Second Law:
Money can be printed out of nothing, kilojoules cannot!
Activity can generate profit yet always destroys resources (irreversibility)
Corolary: In a planet with limited resources, infinite growth is not possible.
33
0
325
650
975
1,300
1,625
1,950
2,275
2,600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Ore
Gra
de (
Ag)
Ore
Gra
des
(Cu,
Pb,
Zn,
Au,
Ni,
U, D
iam
onds
)
Copper (%Cu)
Gold (g/t)
Lead (%Pb)
Zinc (%Zn)
Uranium (kg/t U3O8)
Nickel (%Ni)
Diamonds (carats/t)
Silver (g/t)
(kg/t U3O8)
(Ag, 1884 - 3,506 g/t)
Ore grades are declining
Ore grade decline in Australia’s main commodities
Source: Mudd, G. The Ultimate Sustainability of Mining – Linking Key Mega-Trends with 21st Century Challenges Sustainable mining conference, 2010
34
… Yet very little is being recycled
Source: Graedel et al. (2011) What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates? Journal of Industrial Ecology, 15, 355-366
35
Agbogbloshie, Ghana
Recycling rates are increasing. However demand increases at an even higher rate
Recycling is not enough
The case of Aluminium 37
Source: Gerber (2007): Strategy towards the red list from a business perspective From availability to accessibility - insights into the results of an expert workshop on ``mineral raw material scarcity''
A 2% yearly increase in demand implies doubling extraction every 35 years=historic extraction