thanksgiving 2014, presented by the richards

Thanksgiving Menu:

Survey & Results

November 2014

Hostess: Laura Richard

Statistician: Dan Richard

Agenda

Background & Goal

Survey

Key terms

Results

Next steps

2Richard Family Proprietary &

Confidential

Background & Goal

Background

The Richards are hosting Thanksgiving 2014

Ten people (not including babies) are in attendance

Goal for the meal

Maximize attendees’ satisfaction through strategic menu

selections

Dan & Laura conducted a survey of the food preferences of

the ten non-babies to help achieve the goal


Confidential

Survey

Meat – choose top two

Turkey, roasted

Turkey, deep-fried

Rack of lamb

Honey baked ham

Prime rib roast

Will not eat meat

Other: _____

Bread – choose top two

Cornbread

Biscuits

Sourdough bread

Dinner rolls

Other: _____

Dessert – choose top two

Pumpkin pie

Chocolate pie

Apple pie

Pecan pie

Sweet potato pie

Other: _____

Side dishes – choose top five

Green salad

Mac & cheese

Sweet potato casserole

Mashed potatoes

Mashed sweet potatoes

Green beans

Green bean casserole

Dressing

Cranberry sauce

Glazed carrots

Creamed spinach

Corn souffle

Collard greens

Rice pilaf

Other: _____


Confidential

100% Response Rate!

Key Terms: Picks, Winners & Losers

Pick: A food item in the survey that a respondent chose

Winner: A food item that was selected for the Thanksgiving

menu

Loser: A food item that was not selected for the Thanksgiving

menu

Winners & Losers were determined based on survey results

With some adjustments by the Hostess and certain attendees

Adjustments violated the beautiful science of data analysis

Richard Family Proprietary &

Confidential

5

Key Metric: Satisfaction

Satisfaction is a weighted sum of a respondent’s picks that

were winners

Weighted at the food category level (j = Sides, Meats,

Desserts, Breads)


Confidential

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Food

Category ( j )

Category

Weight

Number of Winners

in Category

Number of Winners

Picked ( Xj )

Individual Item

Weight ( wj )

Sides 45.0% 5 XSides 9.0%

Meats 25.0% 2 XMeats 12.5%

Desserts 20.0% 2 XDesserts 10.0%

Breads 10.0% 2 XBreads 5.0%

Respondent-Level Satisfaction

Ten respondents ( i = 1, … , 10 )

Number of winners picked by respondents i = 1, … , 10 were

notated as Xij: x1j, … , x10j

For respondent i, Satisfaction in category j is calculated as

𝑆𝑖𝑗 = 𝑥𝑖𝑗 × 𝑤𝑗

A respondent’s total Satisfaction Si is the sum of his/her

category Satisfaction metrics: 𝑆𝑖 = 𝑗=14 𝑆𝑖𝑗 = 𝑗=1

4 𝑥𝑖𝑗 × 𝑤𝑗


Confidential

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Population-Level Satisfaction

Average Satisfaction in food category j:

𝑆𝑗 = 𝑤𝑗 × 𝑖=110 𝑥𝑖𝑗

10

Minimum Satisfaction in food category j:

𝑆𝑗𝑚𝑖𝑛 = min

𝑖𝑥𝑗 × 𝑤𝑗

Average Satisfaction of the meal, across all participants and

food categories:

𝑆 = 𝑖=110 𝑗=1

4 𝑥𝑖𝑗×𝑤𝑗

10= 𝑖=110 𝑆𝑖

10


Confidential

8

Assumptions About Satisfaction

Weights of food categories were judgmentally chosen by Dan

& Laura

Validated by Stan & Linda – possible systematic bias at the heart of the

calculation since these four are thick as thieves

Each pick within a food category carries a uniform weight

Respondents have zero satisfaction with food items that they

did not pick

Satisfaction is based solely on picked food items being

represented in the final meal

Quality of the cooked food has no impact on Satisfaction

No interaction effects between menu items


Confidential

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Results: Winners & Adjustments

Selection of winners was based on maximizing average satisfaction per

category (𝑆𝑗)

Adjustments were made in some categories to improve minimum category

satisfaction (𝑆𝑗𝑚𝑖𝑛), or based on the whims of the hostess or attendees


Confidential

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Meat Winners• Honey baked ham

• Turkey, roasted

Adjustment• Add prime rib roast

Sides Winners• Mashed potatoes

• Mac & cheese

• Dressing

• Green bean casserole

• Green salad

Adjustments

• Swap out green salad, swap

in cranberry sauce

• Add sweet potato casserole

Bread Winners• Dinner rolls

• Biscuits

Adjustment• Swap out dinner rolls, swap

in sourdough bread

Dessert Winners• Pumpkin pie

• Apple pie

Adjustment• Add chocolate pie

• Add pecan pie

68%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Winners Final Meal Selection

Ave

rage

Sat

isfa

ctio

nAverage Satisfaction

Winning Meal Items and Final Meal Selection After Adjustments


Confidential

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Adjustments produced 12.6%

absolute lift (18.7% proportional

lift) in average satisfaction

14%

7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%6%

5%

3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Itemized Satisfaction (Left Axis) Cumulative Satisfaction (Right Axis)

Average Satisfaction by Winning Food Item


Confidential

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Cumulative Average Satisfaction: 68%

14%

7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%6%

5%4% 4% 4%

3% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Itemized Satisfaction (Left Axis) Cumulative Satisfaction (Right Axis)

Average Satisfaction with Final Meal Selections


Confidential

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Cumulative Average Satisfaction: 80%

Results: Meat

Meat winners: Honey baked ham & Roast Turkey


Confidential

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Satisfaction with Winners:

• 𝑆𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑡 = 𝟐𝟎. 𝟎%

• 𝑆𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 0.0%

Meat Analysis

Max possible satisfaction:

25.0%

Satisfaction After Adjustment: Add prime rib roast

• 𝑆𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑡 = 𝟐𝟒. 𝟎%

• 𝑆𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 12.5%

9

5

3

1

0

0

0

0 2 4 6 8 10

Honey baked ham

Turkey, roasted

Prime rib roast

Rack of lamb

Turkey, fried

Will not eat meat

Other

# Responses by Meat Selection

Results: Sides Sides winners: Mashed potatoes, mac & cheese,

dressing, green bean casserole, green salad

15


• 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 = 𝟐𝟗. 𝟕%

• 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 18.0%

Sides Analysis


45.0%

Satisfaction After Adjustments: Replace green salad with cranberry sauce; add sweet potato casserole

• 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 = 𝟑𝟐. 𝟒%

• 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 18.0%

7

7

7

7

5

4

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0 2 4 6 8 10

Mashed potatoes

Mac & Cheese

Dressing

Green bean casserole

Green Salad

Cranberry sauce

Sweet potato casserole

Green beans

Corn souffle

Rice pilaf

Creamed spinach

Collard greens

Mashed sweet potatoes

Glazed carrots

Other

# Responses by Side Selection

Results: Bread

Bread winners: Dinner rolls & biscuits


Confidential

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• 𝑆𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝟓. 𝟓%

• 𝑆𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 0.0%

Bread Analysis


10.0%

Satisfaction After Adjustment: Replace dinner rolls with sourdough bread

• 𝑆𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝟓. 𝟎%

• 𝑆𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 0.0%

5

5

4

4

0

0 2 4 6 8 10

Dinner rolls

Biscuits

Sourdough bread

Cornbread

Other

# Responses by Bread Selection

Results: Dessert

Dessert winners: Pumpkin pie & apple pie


Confidential

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• 𝑆𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑡 = 𝟏𝟐. 𝟑%

• 𝑆𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 0.0%

Dessert Analysis


20.0%

Satisfaction After Adjustment: Add chocolate pie and pecan pie

• 𝑆𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑡 = 𝟏𝟗. 𝟎%

• 𝑆𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 10.0%

7

5

4

2

1

0

0 2 4 6 8 10

Pumpkin pie

Apple pie

Chocolate pie

Pecan pie

Sweet potato pie

Other

# Responses by Dessert Selection

67%63%

86%

67%

84%

68% 72%67%

60%

42%

28%29%

0%

19%

-3%

13% 5%9%

14%

14%

95%91%

86% 86%81% 81%

77% 76%73%

56%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dan Laura Stefanie Matt Sarah Ethan Paul Linda Kyle stan

Sati

sfac

tio

n

Satisfaction with Winning Meal Selections Net Impact of Adjustments Satisfaction with Final Meal

Satisfaction by Respondent:

Winning Meal Selections and Adjustments


Confidential

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Suspiciously, adjustments created the most lift for the host & hostess

Adjustments resulted in a net loss of Satisfaction for Sarah

Satisfaction with Final Meal Selections

by Food Category and Respondent


Confidential

19

25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

13%

45%36% 36% 36% 36% 36%

27%36%

18%

18%

5%

10%5% 5%

0% 0%

5%

5%

10%

5%

20%20%

20% 20%20% 20%

20%10%

20%

20%

95%91%

86% 86%81% 81%

77% 76%73%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dan Laura Stefanie Matt Sarah Ethan Paul Linda Kyle Stan

Sati

sfac

tio

n

Dessert

Bread

Sides

Meat

Satisfaction with Final Meal

Next Steps

For respondents

Eat Thanksgiving dinner

Report to Dan actual satisfaction with food items, food

categories and overall meal

For Dan

Aggregate actual satisfaction measurements

Validate predicted satisfaction against actual satisfaction

Hone the satisfaction prediction algorithm for next year


Confidential

20

thanksgiving 2014, presented by the richards

Food

cooked food

food preferences

picked food items

food category level

thanksgiving menu loser

survey resultsnovember

categorynumber of winners

winners loserspick