thayer australia's perspectives: the future of us alliances in asia
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8/6/2019 Thayer Australia's Perspectives: The Future of US Alliances in Asia
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The Future of US Alliances in AsiaAustralia’s Security Perspec8ves
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer
Presenta8on to the Conference on the Future of US Alliances in Asia
Co‐sponsored by Pacific Forum CSIS, Yuchenco Center De La Salle
University and the Philippines Ins8tute for Peace, Violence and
Terrorism Research, New World Hotel, ManilaMay 26‐27, 2011
8/6/2019 Thayer Australia's Perspectives: The Future of US Alliances in Asia
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ANZUS Treaty 1951
Ar8cle IV
• Each Party recognizes that an armed aack in the PacificArea on any of the Par8es would be dangerous to its ownpeace and safety and declares that it would act to meet thecommon danger in accordance with its cons8tu8onal
processes…Ar8cle V
• For the purpose of Ar8cle IV, an armed aack on any of thePar8es is deemed to include an armed aack on themetropolitan territory of any of the Par8es, or on the islandterritories under its jurisdic8on in the Pacific or on itsarmed forces, public vessels or aircra[ in the Pacific.
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Alliance Benefits
Security guarantee
High‐level access
Intelligence sharing
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Alliance Benefits
Defence technology
Economic benefits FTA
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Brief Background
• 196 New Zealand suspended
– AUSMIN
• 9‐11 Australian Parliament invokes ANZUS
Treaty
• Global War on Terrorism
– Iraq, Afghanistan
• Other major commitments – East Timor, Bougainville, Solomon Islands
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Australia’s Straegic Interests
• Defence White Paper 2009
– secure Australia
– Secure immediate neighbourhood – Strategic stability Asia‐Pacific Region
– Stable rules‐based global security
order
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Primary Security Concerns
• External power domina8on of region
– strategic implica8ons of China’s rise
• Negag8ve impact of global economic crisis
• Regional instability
– Terrorism, insurgency and communal violence
• Terrorism and it impact on Australian interests
and ci8zens
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2000 Defence White Paper
• Globaliza8on – good for security
• US primacy – likely to endure
– But cannot be taken for granted
• Management of Great Power rela8ons
– Instability or conflict of major concern
• Southeast Asia – area of great promise
– But South China Sea territorial claims – Indonesia, East Timor, PNG
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Change
• Con8nuing commitment to East Timor
• Impact of 9‐11 – GWOT
– Commitment to Afghanistan and Iraq
• Bali bombings October 2002 and further
major terrorist incidents in Indonesia
• Border protec8on
• 2004 Tsunami and Cyclone Nargis 2005 – HA/DR
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Change
• Five Power Defence Arrangements
– From Integrated Air Defence System to Integrated
Area Defence System
– Greater prominence to combined and jointexercises to address conven8onal threats
– Asymmemtric threats – non‐conven8onal
• Global terrorism, piracy, EEZ protec8n, HA/DR,
smuggling of illicit drugs• Mari8me security
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Factors Shaping Security Percep8ons
• Global economic and financial crisis
• China’s military modernisa8on and
transforma8on• U.S. stepped up engagement
• Regional arms procurements
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Factors Shaping Security Percep8ons
• Importance of mari8me domain
• Transna8onal security issues
• ‘everydaty security challenges’• Evolu8on of regional security
architecture
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Role of Domes8c Poli8cs
• Genuine bipar8san support for
ANZUS
– Excep8on Iraq War commitment
• Major role in border protec8on
policies
– Illegal migrants
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Conclusion
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The Future of US Alliances in AsiaAustralia’s Security Perspec8ves
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer
Presenta8on to the Conference on the Future of US Alliances in Asia
Co‐sponsored by Pacific Forum CSIS, Yuchenco Center De La Salle
University and the Philippines Ins8tute for Peace, Violence and
Terrorism Research, New World Hotel, Manila
May 26‐27, 2011