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In-depth 2012 prevIewsOf every COllege and prO team

three-year game lOgs fOr all 124 fBs COllege teams

team stats, rankIngs, pOwer ratIngs, Outplay faCtOrs and strengths Of sChedule

sItuatIOnal reCOrdsfOr every COllege and prO team

Plus:

ExclusivE ATs TrEnds for EvEry nfl TEAm!

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2012volume 11 number 3

Eli Mannings nEw York giants:

18-to-1 odds to win supEr Bowl XlVii

2012 HEisMan tropHY CandidatE Matt BarklEYs usC trojans: 7-to-2 faVoritEs to win BCs national CHaMpionsHip

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StatFox Edge Football Preview Guide 2012 3

2012 StatFox EdgE Football PrEviEw guidE>AFC East

Football FuturesN

FL PreviewAFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC N

orthTeam

SchedulesAFC N

orthN

FC SouthN

FC West

Buffalo Bills ........................... 10

Miami Dolphins ..................... 11

New England Patriots ............ 12

New York Jets ........................ 13

Baltimore Ravens .................. 14

Cincinnati Bengals ................ 15

Cleveland Browns .................. 16

Pittsburgh Steelers ................ 17

Houston Texans ..................... 18

Indianapolis Colts.................. 19

Jacksonville Jaguars ............... 20

Tennessee Titans ................... 21

Denver Broncos ..................... 22

Kansas City Chiefs.................. 23

Oakland Raiders .................... 24

San Diego Chargers ............... 25

Dallas Cowboys ..................... 26

New York Giants .................... 27

Philadelphia Eagles ............... 28

Washington Redskins ............ 29

Chicago Bears ....................... 30

Detroit Lions .......................... 31

Green Bay Packers ................. 32

Minnesota Vikings ................. 33

Atlanta Falcons ..................... 34

Carolina Panthers .................. 35

New Orleans Saints ............... 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers .......... 37

Arizona Cardinals .................. 38

St. Louis Rams ....................... 39

San Francisco 49ers ............... 40

Seattle Seahawks .................. 41

StatS, SCHEdulES aNd SuCHLetter from the Editor .....................................................................................................................4

NFL Preview with Predicted 2012 Standings ...................................................................................6

Football Futures .............................................................................................................................8

Fantasy Football Focus ...................................................................................................................9

Team-By-Team 2012 NFL Schedule ................................................................................................42

Week-By-Week 2012 NFL Schedule ................................................................................................44

College Football Top 25 ................................................................................................................46

Montee Ball

NFl tEaM-bY-tEaM HaNdiCaPPiNg aNalYSiS>

Michael Vick

Weekly Schedule

Atlantic Coast Conference ...........................48

Big 12 Conference .......................................56

Big East Conference .....................................63

Big Ten Conference ......................................68

Conference USA ...........................................76

Mid-American Conference ...........................84

Mountain West Conference ..........................92

Pac-12 Conference .......................................98

Southeastern Conference ..........................106

Sun Belt Conference ..................................115

Western Athletic Conference ........................121

Independents ............................................126

FbS CoNFErENCE-bY-CoNFErENCE PrEviEwS aNd PrEdiCtioNS

PubliSHiNg oFFiCES

Daily Racing Form, LLC708 Third Avenue 12th Floor

New York, NY 10017

dailY raCiNg ForM, llC

2012 EdgE Football PrEviEw guidE

SPortS ENtHuSiaSt MEdia(a division of Daily Racing Form, LLC)

Managing EditorCreative DirectorExecutive Editor

Associate Editors

Senior WriterContributing Writer

Editorial Direction

Scott GramlingIan KnowlesJeff MakinenBrian GrahamTim StephensGary BennettZachary Cohen10Ten Media

President, SIG DigitalProgramming Manager

Director of Business Development

Art Director

Todd UngerJacob LuftMichael Zapin(212) 366-7674Chris Donofry

The 2012 StatFox Edge Football Preview Guide is published annually by Daily Racing Form LLC, located at 708 Third Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10017. 2012 by Daily Racing Form, LLC. Daily Racing Form, LLC reserves the right to accept or deny any paid advertisements and is not responsible for any contracts entered in with such advertisers.

THIS PUBLICATION IS NOT SPONSORED OR AUTHORIZED BY ANY ATHLETIC CONFERENCE NOR HOLDER OF ANY TRADEMARK

OR SERVICE MARK. ALL TEAM NAMES AND LOGOS ARE TRADEMARKS OF THE TEAMS INDICATED. THIS PUBLICATION MAKES NO

REPRESENTATION AS TO WHETHER ONLINE GAMING IS LEGAL IN YOUR JURISDICTION. PLEASE CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL

AUTHORITIES. ALL INFORMATION IS FOR NEWS MATTER ONLY.

advErtiSiNgEmail David Bartman:

[email protected]

PresidentVP, Custom Publishing

Jim KostasDuke Dosik

4 StatFox Edge Football Preview Guide 2012

Have a profitable season,

Scott Gramling Managing Editor

lEttEr FroM tHE Editor

his is one football annual that will get plenty of use during the season and is something every football handicapper should own. Easy for me to say, right? Although I obviously agree 100 percent with that sentiment, theyre not my words; theyre

words taken from a review of this annual publication at About.com.

If you were with us last year, you undoubtedly noticed that we revamped the look of this annual edition in an effort to make it more reader-friendly. In short, we re-designed the publication to be a handy resource to which you can constantly refer throughout the college and pro football seasons. What didnt change was the substance, and were back again this year with all of the popular insight, information, analysis and statistics to which readers have become accustomed. Our capsules for all 156 teams32 pro and 124 collegeinclude everything from past years game logs and situational records to the upcoming seasons Outplay Factor and Power Ratings, both of which are generated by proprietary StatFox.com formulas and have proven to be great long-term handicapping tools.

While were confident that this publication will provide you with a solid head-start to your 2012 football handicapping season, our efforts certainly dont stop here. Our team of writers spends countless hours during the summer, fall and winter breaking down stats, trends and inside information to offer up keen betting insight all season long at StatFox.com. Our world-renowned FoxSheets take the analysis another few steps further, offering up remarkably valuable information for every college and pro game. Two FoxSheets features youll want to be sure to check out are Situational Team Power Trends, which uncover situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play; and Super Situations, which uncover conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. The Super Situations are not team specificthe principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.)and their remarkable success rate over the years speaks for itself. Another way to get access to this valuable information is by ordering our weekly Platinum Sheet publication. You cando so by calling 1-877-514-4220 or logging on to www.StatFox.com/store.

One of the new offerings this year from our family of handicapping products that help you

>

expand your bankroll is the Best Bets well be offering throughout the football season with college and pro picks from our staff of human handicappers as well as our Statfox Forecaster, which has proven to be an extremely successful long-term handicapping tool. By weighing several key factors, including recent statistical averages, schedule strength and home-field advantage, the StatFox Forecaster is most accurate once a season is underway, as evident by a remarkable ATS success rate of 61%(123-79-6) on all 2011 NFL regular-season games played between September 25 and the end of the calendar year. The Forecaster ended theNFL season (including the postseason) with a success rate of better than 58%.

Of course, theres also plenty to be gained from the college football insight youll receive via StatFox Best Bets, particularly from our human quartet, all of whom finished the 2011 college football regular season with a 50% mark or better on Best Bets in last years weekly Platinum Sheet publication. Leading the way was yours truly, with a success rate on Best Bets of 54%, which was admittedly a bit disappointing after a 2010 season in which I was able to rack up a 59% success rate against the spread on Best Bets in our weekly Platinum Sheet publication.

As you go through this issue and check out our offerings at StatFox.com, youll notice that almost every bit of information in this magazine and at StatFox.com is dedicated to handicapping football. We always urge our readers to avoid confusing themselves by handicapping football with other publications that take a more main-stream view of the sport. They simply wont have what it takes to help you succeed as a football bettor. With that in mind, well proudly put the StatFox Edge print products and StatFox.com head-to-head against any competition when it comes to making you a more knowledgeable and profitable handicapper.

Getting back to the About.com review I reference at the top of this page, it concluded by stating: As one who recommends the StatFox.com Web site to plenty of bettors on a regular basis, Ill admit to having some high expectations for this annual. But after reading through the annual for a few days its safe to say that StatFox not only met my expectations, but exceeded them quite well.

I could not have said it any better myself.

2012 Pro aNd CollEgE Football bESt bEtS . . . SEE StatFox.CoM For

MorE dEtailS!STATFOX DAVE

StatFox Dave is one of the original four founders of StatFox and over the years

has been renowned for his handicapping prowess in all sports. Anyone who signed

up for our NBA postseason Best Bets certainly knows that to be true, as Dave racked up a 59% success rate on all picks (including a perfect 5-0 in the NBA Finals) and an astounding 66% success rate on Best Bets during the NBA postseason.

STATFOX GARYStatFox Gary joined the StatFox and the

Platinum Sheet staff prior to the 2010 foot-ball season, and subscribers were certainly happy he did: He proceeded to post a 55%

success rate on NFL Best Bets in his rookie season. Football isnt the only sport at which Gary excels, as he finished the 2011-12 col-

lege basketball regular season with a 156-99-1 (61%) record on all picks, which included a

gaudy 54-25 record against the spread (68%) on college basketball Best Bets.

STATFOX SCOTTStatFox Scott serves as Managing Editor for StatFox, Platinum Sheet and the Edge Foot-ball Preview Guide, and is coming off a 2011

college football season in which he was 54% against the spread on Platinum Sheet Best Bets. That followed a 2010 season in which his college football Best Bets suc-

cess rate was 59%. Not merely a one-sport pony, Scott had a 2011-12 college basketball regular season for the ages: He racked up a whopping 56-23 record (71%) on Best Bets.

STATFOX BRIANA featured writer on both StatFox.com and for Platinum Sheet, StatFox Brian has yet

to suffer a losing season of Platinum Sheet Best Bets in either college football, NFL,

college basketball or NBA since coming on board during the summer of 2010. His most

recent success earlier this calendar year was a 49-30 record (62%) against the spread

on college basketball Best Bet picks. It was a performance that did nothing to

distract him from flexing his NBA muscle, however, as StatFox Brian racked up a

31-16 record (66%) on NBA Best Bets prior to the late-February All-Star break.

StatFox is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet.

Our popular FoxSheets are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit

everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper.

Providing Unprecedented Handicapping

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LO G O N T O S TAT F OX . C O M A N D S TA R T W I N N I N G T O DAY !

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>

AFC EASTJust when you thought the Patriots offense couldnt get any better, Josh McDaniels returns to his OC role five years after play-calling for Tom Bradys record-setting 2007 season. Plus, newly acquired Brandon Lloyd gives Brady by far his best deep threat since Randy Moss prime. The defensive will improve as key tacklers get healthy and rookie pass-rushers contribute. Itd take an epidemic of injuries to keep New England out of the playoffs . . . The Bills Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller form an underrated and highly effective backfield tandem, while Buffalo has gotten the most from Ryan Fitzpatricks relatively weak arm. Their D, which has been atrocious the past two seasons, added elite talents Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to a promising, young unit . . . The Jets have a good enough defense to com-pete for a playoff spot, especially if their pass-rush improves. The offense is severely lacking in talent, though. Theyll be run-heavy under new OC Tony Sparano, but Shonn Greene lacks speed and elusiveness and the Jets have no other enticing options at RB. Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez are both inconsistent passers with gaping holes in their games . . . The Dolphins are in a rebuilding phase, as 2012 will feature a rotation of QBs throwing to one of the leagues worst receiving groups. Their unheralded defense will keep them close most weeks, but Miami lacks offensive playmakers.

AFC NORTHTerrell Suggs recovery from an Achilles tear may largely determine how far the Ravens go this season. Hes a key piece in their potentially elite defense, and a late-season return to full health could trigger a Super Bowl run. Ray Rice is a dynamic runner and receiver, and Joe Flacco finally showed flashes of being an elite, pressure-situation passer last year . . . The Steelers aging defense led the league in scoring and yardage allowed, but failed to make many big plays and completely collapsed in the playoffs. Theyll be asking a lot from declining stars in 2012. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong receiv-ing corps at his disposal, but the running game is a question mark after Rashard Mendenhalls Week 17 ACL tear . . . Second-year wideout A.J. Green is a special talent, and hell be asked to overcome a plethora of defensive attention on an otherwise lackluster offense. After going 0-8 against playoff teams last year, the Bengals are bound for a letdown with a much tougher 2012 schedule . . . Rookie RB Trent Richardson is a beast, and QB Brandon Weeden should improve an anemic passing game. Still, the Browns lack the firepower to overcome tough divisional foes. The defense will also be improved as stud second-year lineman Jabaal Sheard progresses, and Cleveland should be able to at least stay close in most games.

AFC SOUTHThe Texans running game may be the leagues best, and it keeps defens-es honest against now-healthy star WR Andre Johnson. Matt Schaub also returns to the lineup to give Houston the passing threat it lacked with rook-ie T.J. Yates under center late last season. Wade Phillips defense should be

fine without Mario Williams, especially with J.J. Watt beginning to emerge as a star. They need another relatively healthy season from key players . . . The Titans will need to overcome a rough early-season schedule (five playoff teams in their first six games) to make the playoffs. The key to their season will be if volatile RB Chris Johnson gives consistent effort and regains his 2009 form. A revamped secondary could be problematic in the early going . . . Maurice Jones-Drew can only be asked to do so much for the Jaguars, and runs the risk of burning out from overuse. Aside from him, theres nothing to like about Jacksonvilles offense, especially second-year QB Blaine Gabbert, who looked completely lost as a rookie. Their defensive front should be able to hold up in what could be a relatively weak division. But if any-thing happens to Jones-Drew, the Jags would be the worst team in the AFC . . . Dont expect much from the rebuilding Colts. Even a prospect as prom-ising Andrew Luck needs time to learn the ropes as a pro. New head coach Chuck Pagano wants a power running game but lacks the personnel to suc-ceed. Expect a few blowout losses as Indys defense transitions to a new 3-4 scheme with an undermanned unit.

AFC WESTPeyton Mannings health and arm strength will determine the Broncos success. If hes 100 percent, hell surely develop Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas into productive WRs. Denvers defense carried the team at times in 2011 (the team won five games with fewer than 20 points scored) but was gashed by strong passing attacks. Theyre fortunate to play in such a weak division . . . New Chiefs offensive coordinator Brian Dabolls system will benefit from the healthy return of RB Jamaal Charles and signing of Peyton Hillis, which will allow Kansas City to keep the ball on the ground. The healthy return of SS Eric Berry will aid in K.C.s run at the 2012 AFC West division title . . . After a rough season, the Chargers need a better perfor-mance from Philip Rivers to contend for an AFC titleRivers needs to cut down on his mistakes. Their defense didnt add any difference-makers. Norv Turners team has been underachieving for a few years now, but San Diego has a soft enough schedule to contend for the postseason . . . If Darren McFadden could ever stay healthy for an entire season, the Raiders could have a potent offense. Carson Palmer looked pathetic at times last sea-son, and his skill set seems incongruent with a WR corps loaded with deep threats. Oaklands D should be better with DE Matt Shaughnessy healthy, but between MLB Rolando McClains legal troubles and a terrible second-ary, expect a handful of shootout losses.

NFC EASTExpect the Eagles offense to return to its 2010 form. Michael Vick enters his first full preseason as the starting QB, DeSean Jackson is finally happy with his contract and underrated Jeremy Maclin is back to 100% after last summers cancer scare. Meanwhile, LeSean McCoy has become an explo-sive weapon out of the backfield. On D, they need middle LB DeMeco Ryans to plug up a porous front seven that features an aggressive pass rush . . .

NFL PREVIEW

AFC EastAFC South

NFC East

NFC N

orthN

FC West

Team Schedules

Weekly Schedule

AFC North

NFC South

AFC West


After their Super Bowl victory, the Giants have the NFLs toughest schedule in 2012. Eli Manning is coming off a career year, but has faltered late in the season more often than not in his career. The losses of Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham limit his weapons. The G-Men will surely have another great pass rush, and the return of CB Terrell Thomas will improve their sec-ondary . . . The Cowboys offense will be one of the leagues best, as an improved line will allow Tony Romo to fully utilize the outstanding talent that surrounds him. Dallas biggest concern is on defense, where they lack talent beyond ferocious sack-machine DeMarcus Ware. A lot will be asked of 6th-overall pick DB Morris Claiborne . . . Heisman winner Robert Griffin IIIs skills should translate well to the Redskins system, and Washington features promising young talent at other skill positions. While the future is bright for the Skins, a mediocre defense, a rookie QB and a tough sched-ule will lead to another long season in Washington.

NFC NORTHUntimely mistakes spelled playoff disaster for the Packers after a domi-nant regular season. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers was near perfect, and his dynamic receiving corps is only getting better. Green Bays lack of a running game shouldnt be a problem. The defense makes plenty of big plays, but needs to give up fewer if the Pack is going to return to the Super Bowl . . . The Bears were 7-3 before injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte derailed their season. The addition of Brandon Marshall and a new pass-ing scheme should improve Cutlers production in 2012. Chicagos defense is solid and Devin Hesters return skills are a game-changer . . . The pass-happy Lions need Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to stay healthy all year to make the playoffs again. Jahvid Best staying on the field is also key, as hes a threat to score out of the backfield on any play. The young DL combo of Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh is special, but Detroits defense still gives us points in bunches against top offenses . . . Adrian Petersons Week 1 status is uncertain as the Vikings look to recover from a three-win season. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin are an intriguing combo, but not at the level of other NFC North passing games. Aside from Jared Allen and his 22 sacks in 2011, the Minnesota defense is feeble.

NFC SOUTHThe Saints offense should be just fine with Sean Payton suspended. Drew Brees will ably run the show after his record-setting 2011 season. Between DC Gregg Williams departure and captain Jonathan Vilmas suspension, its the New Orleans defense that will hold them back this season. Their second-ary doesnt create turnovers like they used to, and the front seven is full of holes . . . The Panthers coaching staff did a remarkable job capitalizing on the strengths of Rookie of the Year Cam Newton. Newton should be even better now that he has a year of experience under his belt. Meanwhile, Carolinas defense should improve with the addition of 9th-overall pick Luke Kuechly . . . The Falcons will pass the ball more under new coordi-nator Dirk Koetter. Matt Ryan may not be an elite passer, but his WR duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones may be the best in the NFL. The defense is mediocre up front and may struggle after the loss of MLB Curtis Lofton, but Asante Samuels arrival gives them a second CB (along with Brent Grimes) who can cover the NFLs best wideouts . . . This offseasons head-scratcher was the Buccaneers hiring of Greg Schiano, whose only major successes at Rutgers were lucking into under-recruited Ray Rice and briefly rising to the top of the rapidly-declining Big East. Josh Freeman can only get better in his fourth season, and Vincent Jackson is the best WR hes had to work with. Tampas defense was dreadful in 2011, but has some talented young-sters who could bring them back to respectability this season.

NFC WESTIf punt returner Ted Ginn had been healthy last January, the 49ers might be defending NFC champs instead of kicking themselves over a mistake-riddled loss to the Giants. San Fran added several playmakers to their backfield and receiving corps. Their hard-hitting defense should again dominate against the weak NFC West . . . The Cardinals need a reliable QB to emerge before they can compete for a playoff spot. Larry Fitzgeralds talent is too often wasted. Arizonas defense is improving up front, but their secondary, par-ticularly Patrick Peterson, is vulnerable. Peterson is, however, one of the leagues best return men coming off a four-TD rookie season . . . Marshawn Lynch is a beast who the Seahawks can ill-afford to get hurt. Seattles pass-ing game is full of question marks. Their defense may be good enough to keep them in the playoff hunt. Chris Clemons has 22 sacks in the past two seasons and Seattle was usually strong against the run. Their young sec-ondary has a chance to be one of the leagues best for years to come . . . New head coach Jeff Fisher will eventually turn the Rams around, but its likely to be sometime after 2012. Sam Bradford is still improving, though hell be working with an inexperienced crop of receivers. Chris Long, Robert Quinn and James Laurinaitis form a solid young core for the defense, and the arrival of CB Cortland Finnegan will help.

PREDICTED 2012AFC STAnDIngSEAST ........................W .......... L

new England ..........12 ........... 4Buffalo .......................8 ........... 8new York Jets ............7 ........... 9Miami .........................6 ..........10

NORTH.....................W .......... L

Baltimore .................11 ........... 5Pittsburgh* ..............10 ........... 6Cincinnati ..................7 ........... 9Cleveland ..................5 ..........11

SOUTH .....................W .......... L

Houston ...................12 ........... 4Tennessee ..................8 ........... 8Jacksonville ..............4 ..........12Indianapolis .............3 ..........13

WEST .......................W .......... L

Denver ......................10 ........... 6Kansas City* ..............9 ........... 7San Diego ..................7 ........... 9Oakland .....................6 ..........10

*wildcard

AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIOnSWILDCARD WEEKEnD: Ravens over Chiefs Steelers over Broncos

DIVISIOnAL ROUnD: Ravens over TexansPatriots over Steelers

AFC CHAMPIOnSHIP: Ravens over Patriots

SUPER BOWL XLVII PREDICTIOn:RAVEnS 26, PACKERS 24

PREDICTED 2012nFC STAnDIngSEAST ........................W .......... L

Philadelphia ...........11 ........... 5new York giants* ...10 ........... 6Dallas .........................9 ........... 7Washington ...............6 ..........10

NORTH.....................W .......... L

green Bay ................13 ........... 3Chicago* ..................10 ........... 6Detroit ........................9 ........... 7Minnesota .................4 ..........12

SOUTH .....................W .......... L

new Orleans ...........10 ........... 6Carolina .....................9 ........... 7Atlanta .......................8 ........... 8Tampa Bay .................5 ..........11

WEST .......................W .......... L

San Francisco .........12 ........... 4Arizona ......................7 ........... 9Seattle ........................5 ..........11St. Louis .....................3 ..........13

*wildcard

nFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIOnSWILDCARD WEEKEnD: Eagles over BearsSaints over Giants

DIVISIOnAL ROUnD: Packers over SaintsEagles over 49ers

nFC CHAMPIOnSHIP: Packers over Eagles

NFL PreviewFootball Futures

bovada Football FuturES: oddS to wiN . . .>


2013 BCS NaTioNal TiTlE SuPER Bowl XlVii 2013 CoNfERENCE TiTlE GamE

USC 7/2

Alabama 11/2

LSU 11/2

Oklahoma 10/1

Florida State 12/1

Oregon 12/1

Georgia 15/1

Arkansas 22/1

Michigan 25/1

Texas 28/1

Notre Dame 30/1

Virginia Tech 30/1

West Virginia 30/1

Clemson 35/1

South Carolina 35/1

Wisconsin 40/1

Nebraska 45/1

Florida 50/1

TCU 50/1

Michigan State 60/1

Auburn 65/1

Boise State 75/1

Miami (Florida) 75/1

Oklahoma State 80/1

Kansas State 100/1

Mississippi State 100/1

Missouri 100/1

Tennessee 125/1

Iowa 150/1

Louisville 150/1

Penn State 150/1

Texas A&M 150/1

Arizona Cardinals 50/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Baltimore Ravens 16/1

Buffalo Bills 50/1

Carolina Panthers 35/1

Chicago Bears 16/1

Cincinnati Bengals 40/1

Cleveland Browns 200/1

Dallas Cowboys 18/1

Denver Broncos 15/1

Detroit Lions 20/1

Green Bay Packers 6/1

Houston Texans 14/1

Indianapolis Colts 100/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 150/1

Kansas City Chiefs 45/1

Miami Dolphins 50/1

Minnesota Vikings 150/1

New England Patriots 13/2

New Orleans Saints 18/1

New York Giants 18/1

New York Jets 25/1

Oakland Raiders 65/1

Philadelphia Eagles 12/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 16/1

San Diego Chargers 25/1

San Francisco 49ers 10/1

Seattle Seahawks 50/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75/1

Tennessee Titans 50/1

Washington Redskins 50/1

Arizona Cardinals 28/1

Atlanta Falcons 14/1

Baltimore Ravens 7/1

Buffalo Bills 28/1

Carolina Panthers 20/1

Chicago Bears 9/1

Cincinnati Bengals 18/1

Cleveland Browns 90/1

Dallas Cowboys 12/1

Denver Broncos 15/2

Detroit Lions 11/1

Green Bay Packers 10/3

Houston Texans 5/1

Indianapolis Colts 60/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 75/1

Kansas City Chiefs 20/1

Miami Dolphins 22/1

Minnesota Vikings 70/1

New England Patriots 11/4

New Orleans Saints 17/2

New York Giants 9/1

New York Jets 12/1

Oakland Raiders 30/1

Philadelphia Eagles 13/2

Pittsburgh Steelers 15/2

San Diego Chargers 10/1

San Francisco 49ers 11/2

Seattle Seahawks 30/1

St. Louis Rams 40/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35/1

Tennessee Titans 25/1

Washington Redskins 28/1


2012 FaNtaSY Football FoCuS>AFC East

NFL Preview

AFC SouthAFC W

estN

FC EastN

FC North

NFC W

estW

eekly ScheduleAFC N

orthN

FC South

oDDS To wiN DiViSioN TiTlE Two mEN GiVE ThEiR oPiNioNS oN ThE 2012 SEaSoN

Arizona Cardinals +500

Atlanta Falcons +125

Baltimore Ravens +125

Buffalo Bills +700

Carolina Panthers +500

Chicago Bears +350

Cincinnati Bengals +400

Cleveland Browns +2500

Dallas Cowboys +250

Denver Broncos +170

Detroit Lions +500

Green Bay Packers -250

Houston Texans -400

Indianapolis Colts +1500

Jacksonville Jaguars +1500

Kansas City Chiefs +350

Miami Dolphins +1200

Minnesota Vikings +2500

New England Patriots -350

New Orleans Saints +125

New York Giants +200

New York Jets +600

Oakland Raiders +500

Philadelphia Eagles +160

Pittsburgh Steelers +125

San Diego Chargers +180

San Francisco 49ers -250

Seattle Seahawks +550

St.Louis Rams +900

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200

Tennessee Titans +400

Washington Redskins +700

S CO T T g R A M L I n g M A n Ag I n g E D I T O R

Top Fantasy Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Packers Quarterback Sleeper Alex Smith, 49ers Quarterback Bust Peyton Manning, Broncos Top Fantasy Running Back LeSean McCoy, Eagles Running Back Sleeper Doug Martin, Buccaneers Deepest RB Sleeper Ronnie Hillman, Broncos Running Back Bust Frank gore, 49ers Top Fantasy Receiver Calvin Johnson, Lions Wide Receiver Sleeper greg Little, Browns Deepest WR Sleeper Brandon LaFell, Panthers Wide Receiver Bust Mike Wallace, Steelers Top Fantasy Tight End Rob gronkowski, Patriots Tight End Sleeper Coby Fleener, Colts Deepest TE Sleeper Lance Kendricks, Rams Tight End Bust Tony gonzalez, Falcons Top Fantasy Kicker Stephen gostkowski, Patriots Kicker Sleeper Randy Bullock, Texans Kicker Bust Matt Prater, Broncos Top Fantasy Defense San Francisco 49ers Defense Sleeper Kansas City Chiefs Defense Bust new York Jets

DRAFT DAY PHILOSOPHYNab those running backs early. Only nine running backs topped 1,100 yards in 2011, and the RB class of 2012 is riddled with question marks as guys like Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles return from injury. Once you get past the top six or seven backs, the next group is packed with unproven commodities and once-dominant backs now on the downside of their careers. The other skill positions have more depthsuch solid QBs as Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger are likely to be available in the middle rounds. And as usual, receiver is the deepest position with a slew of potential 1,000-yard guys ranked outside the positions top-20.

MOST COMMOn DRAFT DAY MISTAKEMany fantasy owners are very careless when it comes to spending a high draft pick on a player who has suffered a significant injury in a recent season. Its always tempting to go after a guy whos just a year or two removed from a huge season because all of the reports out of training camp are that hes in the best shape of his life and nearly 100 percent. But I snick-ered to myself every time I heard someone call out DeAngelo WIlliams in the third round of a 2011 fan-tasy draft. And Ill snicker again this year when some chump picks Adrian Peterson in the first round.

OnCE THE SEASOn STARTSBuy low and sell high: Theres a reason this is the most overused clich in fantasy football, and thats because it works. If your backup QB is third in the NFL in TDs by October, get on the horn to impatient chumps whose high draft picks have yet to start producing. Things tend to even out over a 16-game season, so youre best off working a deal for a guy who had high expecta-tions at the beginning of the season in exchange for a mid-round pick who strung together a few nice weeks early. Youll be surprised at how quickly some owners are ready to give up on their high draft picks.

gA RY B E n n E T T S E n I O R W R I T E R

Top Fantasy Quarterback Drew Brees, Saints Quarterback Sleeper Christian Ponder, Vikings Quarterback Bust Matt Schaub, Texans Top Fantasy Running Back Arian Foster, Texans Running Back Sleeper Shane Vereen, Patriots Deepest RB Sleeper Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons Running Back Bust Michael Turner, Falcons Top Fantasy Receiver Calvin Johnson, Lions Wide Receiver Sleeper Eric Decker, Broncos Deepest WR Sleeper Doug Baldwin, Seahawks Wide Receiver Bust Demaryius Thomas, Broncos Top Fantasy Tight End Jimmy graham, Saints Tight End Sleeper Jacob Tamme, Broncos Deepest TE Sleeper Dennis Pitta, Ravens Tight End Bust Antonio gates, Chargers Top Fantasy Kicker David Akers, 49ers Kicker Sleeper Rian Lindell, Bills Kicker Bust nate Kaeding, Chargers Top Fantasy Defense Pittsburgh Steelers Defense Sleeper Buffalo Bills Defense Bust Baltimore Ravens

DRAFT DAY PHILOSOPHYProperly manage your risk. If youve done your home-work, youll be able to put together a competitive team by playing it safe. Of course, you want to roll the dice on a couple of high-risk (whether it be because of injuries or an uncertain role), high-reward players because thats more fun. But make sure you have a Plan B in place. It might not be fun grabbing a Shonn Greene-type as your third running back, but when that hotshot rookie flames out or fails to secure play-ing time, youll be glad youre plugging Greene into your lineup rather than scouring the waiver wire for some third-down back.

MOST COMMOn DRAFT DAY MISTAKEFailing to back up your most injury-prone guys. Its become standard operating procedure, but its also incredibly boring. Thats why you see so many owners waiting, waiting, waiting to get a backup they need, taking fliers on high-upside players instead, only to see someone else grab their handcuff player. For instance, if you took Darren McFadden a year ago but you didnt take Michael Bush in the top 75, you deserved your 3-11 season. A lot of the time doing the right thing and doing the boring thing are one in the same, but youll be thankful you did come November.

OnCE THE SEASOn STARTSBe ready to pounce on the waiver wire, and be active in the trade market. This isnt baseball, where you can take a patient approach and trust that players will trend toward their career average statistics. A fantasy football regular season is short, and you need to move fast. And when making a move, keep strength of schedule in mind. If you have a back who had terrible games against the Niners and Ravens early in the season, you can bet that there are better days are ahead of him. If he got shut down by the Rams and Colts, then its time to make a move.

Football FuturesTeam

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2012 SCHEdulEat N.Y. Jets

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aFC EaSt>BUFFALO BILLS

SCENario 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6-Yr total 6-Yr%

STRAIGHT UP 79 79 79 610 412 610 3759 38.5%

OVERALL ATS 106 106 79 87 77 69 4844 52.2%

PRESEASON ATS 22 22 31 13 22 13 1113 45.8%

HOME ATS 53 62 25 33 24 34 2121 50.0%

ROAD ATS 53 44 54 54 53 35 2723 54.0%

VS DIVISION ATS 42 42 15 32 24 24 1619 45.7%

VS CONFERENCE ATS 84 75 57 65 75 48 3734 52.1%

AS FAVORITE ATS 33 20 35 31 01 14 1214 46.2%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 73 86 44 56 76 55 3630 54.5%

OVER-UNDER 79 79 88 610 79 115 4650 47.9%

StatFox.CoM PowEr trENdS

BUFFALO is 10-4 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game the past 5 seasons.

BUFFALO is 2-8 ATS off a division game the past 2 seasons.

BUFFALO is 4-13 ATS after playing a game at home the past 3 seasons.

BUFFALO is 8-3 ATS against AFC West division opponents the past 5 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/11 at KAN W 41-7 W (+4) O (39)9/18 vs OAK W 38-35 L (-3) O (41)9/25 vs NWE W 34-31 W (+7) O (53)10/2 at CIN L 20-23 L (-3) O (42)10/9 vs PHI W 31-24 W (+3) O (52)10/16 at NYG L 24-27 P (+3) O (49)10/30 vs WAS W 23-0 W (-4) U (46)11/6 vs NYJ L 11-27 L (-2) U (45)11/13 at DAL L 7-44 L (+4) O (48)11/20 at MIA L 8-35 L (+3) U (44)11/27 at NYJ L 24-28 W (+9) O (42)12/4 vs TEN L 17-23 L (-1) U (44)12/11 at SDG L 10-37 L (+7) U (49)12/18 vs MIA L 23-30 L (pk) O (43)12/24 vs DEN W 40-14 W (+3) O (43)1/1 at NWE L 21-49 L (+10) O (50)

2008-2011 rEgular SEaSoN gaME logS

StatFox Power Rating: 15 (#25 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: -6.49 (#29 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 21.31 (5th toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 20.13 (19th toughest)2011 Record: 610 (-2.75 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 6912011 Totals (Over-Under): 115

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring -3.9 22Yardage -19.6 19Yds Per Play -0.25 23Yds Per Point +1.44 22Turnovers +1 T13

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 23.3 141st Dwn/Gm 19.6 14Yards/Game 351.5 14Yds Per Play 5.67 13Yds Per Point 15.12 11Rush Yds/Gm 120.1 13Yards Per Rush 4.91 5Pass Att/Game 36.1 10Comp/Game 22.3 10Completion % 61.6 10Pass Yds/Gm 231.4 15Pass Yds/Att 6.41 18INTs Thrown 25 T31Sacks Allowed 23 1Att/Sack 25.1 2Sack Yards 154 1

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 27.1 301st Dwn/Gm 21.3 27Yards/Game 371.1 26Yds Per Play 5.92 28Yds Per Point 13.68 30Rush Yds/Gm 139.0 28Yards Per Rush 4.76 27Pass Att/Game 31.7 T8Comp/Game 20.1 14Completion % 63.3 28Pass Yds/Gm 232.1 19Pass Yds/Att 7.33 25Interceptions 20 T6Sacks 29 T27Att/Sack 17.5 27Sack Yards 210 22

The Bills are largely committed to zone blocking, going away from two-RB backfields and running effectively out of their three-WR base. Theyll spread defenses out then use a lot of inside-zone plays, especially when Fred Jackson is healthy. If hes 100 percent, Jackson figures to take the majority of the snaps at running back over C.J. Spiller, whos used outside the tackles as more of an all-or-nothing runner. Buffalos passing game is limited by Ryan Fitzpatricks lack of arm strength, forcing the team to instead rely on spreading the field. His receivers are given freedom to run and adjust routes as they see fit, which puts a heavy emphasis on experience and chemistry with Fitzpatrick. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatricks security blanket, and the Bills run a lot of one-read slants off of that, with Johnson clearing and Jackson or Spiller crossing under him out of the slot.

Buffalo doled out a lot of money for OLB Mario Williams and DE Mark Anderson this offseason, and this duo should improve the teams pass rush significantly. Williams, in particular, should thrive playing the LDE position in a new 4-3 scheme in Buffalo. Hes added some muscle to tip the scales closer to 300, which should result in fewer missed tackles in 2012. The presence of Williams and Anderson should allow 22-year-old Marcell Dareus to find more room to rush his 320-pound frame up the middle. Nick Barnett tran-sitioned nicely to a 4-3 weakside linebacker, recording 10-plus total tackles six times last year. George Wilson stepped up as a run-stopper after the departure of Donte Whitner, and as a converted wide receiver he has excellent ball skills. He was on pace for 90 solo tackles before injuring his neck. Kelvin Sheppard is another good young talent in the box, and Jairus Byrd is a ball-hawking free safety to round out an improving secondary.

2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 vs SEA W 34-10 W (-2) O (37)9/14 at JAC W 20-16 W (+4) U (37)9/21 vs OAK W 24-23 L (-10) O (37)9/28 at STL W 31-14 W (-9) O (44)10/5 at ARI L 17-41 L (+2) O (44)10/19 vs SDG W 23-14 W (+1) U (45)10/26 at MIA L 16-25 L (+1) U (41)11/2 vs NYJ L 17-26 L (-5) U (43)11/9 at NWE L 10-20 L (+3) U (40)11/17 vs CLE L 27-29 L (-5) O (41)11/23 at KAN W 54-31 W (-3) O (43)11/30 vs SFO L 3-10 L (-6) U (43)12/7 vs MIA L 3-16 L (-2) U (43)12/14 at NYJ L 27-31 W (+8) O (41)12/21 at DEN W 30-23 W (+6) O (46)12/28 vs NWE L 0-13 L (+5) U (34)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/14 at NWE L 24-25 W (+13) O (47)9/20 vs TAM W 33-20 W (-4) O (41)9/27 vs NOR L 7-27 L (+5) U (51)10/4 at MIA L 10-38 L (+2) O (37)10/11 vs CLE L 3-6 L (-5) U (41)10/18 at NYJ W 16-13 W (+9) U (35)10/25 at CAR W 20-9 W (+7) U (37)11/1 vs HOU L 10-31 L (+3) U (42)11/15 at TEN L 17-41 L (+7) O (40)11/22 at JAC L 15-18 W (+8) U (41)11/29 vs MIA W 31-14 W (+4) O (38)12/3 vs NYJ L 13-19 L (+3) U (37)12/13 at KAN W 16-10 W (-3) U (38)12/20 vs NWE L 10-17 P (+7) U (41)12/27 at ATL L 3-31 L (+8) U (40)1/3 vs IND W 30-7 W (-7) O (32)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 vs MIA L 10-15 L (+3) U (39)9/19 at GNB L 7-34 L (+12) U (42)9/26 at NWE L 30-38 W (+14) O (42)10/3 vs NYJ L 14-38 L (+5) O (36)10/10 vs JAC L 26-36 L (-3) O (41)10/24 at BAL L 34-37 W (+12) O (39)10/31 at KAN L 10-13 W (+7) U (45)11/7 vs CHI L 19-22 P (+3) U (41)11/14 vs DET W 14-12 P (-2) U (44)11/21 at CIN W 49-31 W (+4) O (41)11/28 vs PIT L 16-19 W (+6) U (43)12/5 at MIN L 14-38 L (+5) O (43)12/12 vs CLE W 13-6 W (pk) U (39)12/19 at MIA W 17-14 W (+6) U (40)12/26 vs NWE L 3-34 L (+7) U (46)1/2 at NYJ L 7-38 L (pk) O (38)


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2012 SCHEdulE

aFC EaSt>MIAMI DOLPHINS


STRAIGHT UP 610 115 116 79 79 610 3859 39.2%

OVERALL ATS 610 59 89 88 88 96 4450 46.8%

PRESEASON ATS 22 22 31 30 13 31 149 60.9%

HOME ATS 35 16 27 35 26 34 1433 29.8%

ROAD ATS 35 43 62 53 62 62 3017 63.8%

VS DIVISION ATS 15 14 42 51 24 32 1618 47.1%


AS FAVORITE ATS 36 02 25 13 35 31 1222 35.3%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 34 57 64 75 53 65 3228 53.3%

OVER-UNDER 610 97 611 96 79 412 4155 42.7%


MIAMI is 8-2 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) the past 5 seasons.

MIAMI is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game the past 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 9-2 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry the past 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 4-11 ATS off a loss against a division rival the past 5 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 vs NWE L 24-38 L (+7) O (46)9/18 vs HOU L 13-23 L (+3) U (47)9/25 at CLE L 16-17 W (+2) U (41)10/2 at SDG L 16-26 L (+6) U (45)10/17 at NYJ L 6-24 L (+7) U (41)10/23 vs DEN L 15-18 L (+1) U (41)10/30 at NYG L 17-20 W (+9) U (43)11/6 at KAN W 31-3 W (+5) U (40)11/13 vs WAS W 20-9 W (-4) U (38)11/20 vs BUF W 35-8 W (-3) U (44)11/24 at DAL L 19-20 W (+7) U (46)12/4 vs OAK W 34-14 W (-3) O (43)12/11 vs PHI L 10-26 L (-3) U (44)12/18 at BUF W 30-23 W (pk) O (43)12/24 at NWE L 24-27 W (+7) O (49)1/1 vs NYJ W 19-17 P (-2) U (38)


StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#12 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: 2.86 (#12 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 20.69 (12nd toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 19.44 (26th toughest)2011 Record: 610 (-3.75 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 9612011 Totals (Over-Under): 412

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring +1.0 14Yardage -27.8 22Yds Per Play -0.17 19Yds Per Point -2.21 6Turnovers -6 24

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 20.6 201st Dwn/Gm 17.9 19Yards/Game 317.4 22Yds Per Play 5.13 22Yds Per Point 15.43 14Rush Yds/Gm 124.2 11Yards Per Rush 4.24 15Pass Att/Game 29.3 T28Comp/Game 17.5 28Completion % 59.7 18Pass Yds/Gm 193.2 23Pass Yds/Att 6.59 15INTs Thrown 13 T8Sacks Allowed 52 30Att/Sack 9.0 32Sack Yards 334 28

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 19.6 61st Dwn/Gm 19.4 T15Yards/Game 345.1 15Yds Per Play 5.29 13Yds Per Point 17.64 6Rush Yds/Gm 95.6 3Yards Per Rush 3.71 3Pass Att/Game 36.9 25Comp/Game 21.9 23Completion % 59.3 13Pass Yds/Gm 249.5 25Pass Yds/Att 6.77 18Interceptions 16 16Sacks 41 T10Att/Sack 14.4 13Sack Yards 241 16

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The Dolphins will have a different look under new head coach Joe Philbin, as his West Coast offense figures to emphasize short catch-and-run plays rather than the between-the-tackles running to set up the pass that Miami has used in recent years. The running game itself will undergo a big change as they transition to a zone-blocking scheme. Reggie Bush has some experience in it, as the Saints sprinkled in zone plays during his time there. Daniel Thomas gets a fresh slate and has the tools (especially pass protection and receiving) to thrive in the new system. Neither Bush nor Thomas is a true short-yardage back, though Bush figures to get the first crack at the role. Brandon Marshall is gone and slot man Davone Bess figures to be a major beneficiary stat-wise. The backs and TE Anthony Fasano will play a bigger role in the receiving game as well, with Fasano serving as a target near the goal line on play-action. Brian Hartline and Chad Ochocinco figure to be targeted rarely. Fullback/H-back Charles Clay is a part-time player but should be in for an increase in reps and targets. He could end up surpassing Fasano in receiving numbers.

Miami excelled in stopping the run in 2011, and wound up placing third in the NFL with 95.6 rushing YPG allowed. Although the defense did not markedly improve in its offense-focused draft, the Dolphins signed CB Richard Marshall and should remain capa-ble of stopping opposing offenses that dont possess the passing game of a team like New England. Miami is switching to a 4-3 and Karlos Dansby will be the key to maintain-ing the teams performance against the run as its middle linebacker. Dansbys best years, however, came playing in a 3-4, making the move a bit of a risk.

2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 vs NYJ L 14-20 L (+3) U (37)9/14 at ARI L 10-31 L (+6) O (40)9/21 at NWE W 38-13 W (+12) O (37)10/5 vs SDG W 17-10 W (+5) U (44)10/12 at HOU L 28-29 W (+3) O (44)10/19 vs BAL L 13-27 L (-3) O (35)10/26 vs BUF W 25-16 W (-1) U (41)11/2 at DEN W 26-17 W (+4) U (50)11/9 vs SEA W 21-19 L (-7) U (41)11/16 vs OAK W 17-15 L (-10) U (37)11/23 vs NWE L 28-48 L (+2) O (42)11/30 at STL W 16-12 L (-7) U (44)12/7 vs BUF W 16-3 W (+2) U (43)12/14 vs SFO W 14-9 L (-5) U (41)12/21 at KAN W 38-31 W (-3) O (37)12/28 at NYJ W 24-17 W (+3) U (43)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 at ATL L 7-19 L (+4) U (44)9/21 vs IND L 23-27 L (+3) O (41)9/27 at SDG L 13-23 L (+5) U (45)10/4 vs BUF W 38-10 W (-2) O (37)10/12 vs NYJ W 31-27 W (+3) O (35)10/25 vs NOR L 34-46 L (+6) O (47)11/1 at NYJ W 30-25 W (+3) O (40)11/8 at NWE L 17-27 W (+11) U (47)11/15 vs TAM W 25-23 L (-10) O (43)11/19 at CAR W 24-17 W (+3) U (41)11/29 at BUF L 14-31 L (-4) O (38)12/6 vs NWE W 22-21 W (+5) U (46)12/13 at JAC W 14-10 W (+2) U (43)12/20 at TEN L 24-27 W (+5) O (42)12/27 vs HOU L 20-27 L (-1) P (47)1/3 vs PIT L 24-30 L (+3) O (45)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 at BUF W 15-10 W (-3) U (39)9/19 at MIN W 14-10 W (+5) U (41)9/26 vs NYJ L 23-31 L (-2) O (35)10/4 vs NWE L 14-41 L (pk) O (48)10/17 at GNB W 23-20 W (+3) U (44)10/24 vs PIT L 22-23 W (+3) O (40)10/31 at CIN W 22-14 W (-1) U (44)11/7 at BAL L 10-26 L (+5) U (41)11/14 vs TEN W 29-17 W (-1) O (43)11/18 vs CHI L 0-16 L (-3) U (40)11/28 at OAK W 33-17 W (+3) O (38)12/5 vs CLE L 10-13 L (-6) U (43)12/12 at NYJ W 10-6 W (+4) U (38)12/19 vs BUF L 14-17 L (-6) U (40)12/26 vs DET L 27-34 L (-3) O (41)1/2 at NWE L 7-38 L (+4) O (44)



2012 SCHEdulE

aFC EaSt

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS


STRAIGHT UP 145 181 115 107 143 154 8225 76.6%

OVERALL ATS 118 109 97 88 106 108 5846 55.8%

PRESEASON ATS 21 22 04 22 21 22 1012 45.5%

HOME ATS 36 55 35 54 44 55 2529 46.3%

ROAD ATS 82 54 62 34 62 53 3317 66.0%

VS DIVISION ATS 43 42 42 14 43 42 2116 56.8%


AS FAVORITE ATS 77 109 86 67 76 98 4743 52.2%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 41 00 11 21 30 10 113 78.6%

OVER-UNDER 811 117 97 610 143 127 6045 57.1%


NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS in playoff games the past 5 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS in October games the past 5 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse the past 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-1 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game the past 2 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 at MIA W 38-24 W (-7) O (46)9/18 vs SDG W 35-21 W (-6) O (53)9/25 at BUF L 31-34 L (-7) O (53)10/2 at OAK W 31-19 W (-6) U (55)10/9 vs NYJ W 30-21 W (-7) O (50)10/16 vs DAL W 20-16 L (-6) U (54)10/30 at PIT L 17-25 L (-3) U (51)11/6 vs NYG L 20-24 L (-9) U (52)11/13 at NYJ W 37-16 W (+3) O (47)11/21 vs KAN W 34-3 W (-17) U (46)11/27 at PHI W 38-20 W (-3) O (51)12/4 vs IND W 31-24 L (-20) O (48)12/11 at WAS W 34-27 P (-7) O (46)12/18 at DEN W 41-23 W (-7) O (47)12/24 vs MIA W 27-24 L (-7) O (49)1/1 vs BUF W 49-21 W (-10) O (50)


StatFox Power Rating: 31 (#2 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: 10.7 (#2 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 19.95 (23th toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 18.63 (31st toughest)2011 Record: 154 (+3.1 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 10812011 Totals (Over-Under): 127

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring +10.7 3Yardage +16.9 10Yds Per Play +0.15 13Yds Per Point -5.88 3Turnovers +17 3

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 32.1 31st Dwn/Gm 24.9 2Yards/Game 428.0 2Yds Per Play 6.33 3Yds Per Point 13.35 4Rush Yds/Gm 110.3 20Yards Per Rush 4.03 24Pass Att/Game 38.3 3Comp/Game 25.1 3Completion % 65.7 4Pass Yds/Gm 317.8 2Pass Yds/Att 8.31 2INTs Thrown 12 T5Sacks Allowed 32 T9Att/Sack 19.1 9Sack Yards 173 T6

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 21.4 151st Dwn/Gm 23.1 32Yards/Game 411.1 31Yds Per Play 6.18 29Yds Per Point 19.23 2Rush Yds/Gm 117.1 17Yards Per Rush 4.63 24Pass Att/Game 38.7 29Comp/Game 24.1 31Completion % 62.4 23Pass Yds/Gm 293.9 31Pass Yds/Att 7.60 30Interceptions 23 T2Sacks 40 14Att/Sack 15.5 20Sack Yards 274 10

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Miami

Josh McDaniels returns to the role of offensive coordinatorhe called plays for New England in 2007, a record-setting year for Tom Brady and the offense. But while he was gone the Patriots got more comfortable running the ball. Last year they ended up being middle of the pack in terms of run/pass split (41/59 vs. NFL average of 43/57). Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are expected to split duties as the primary ball carriers. The Pats use spread principles in the passing game. Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez are utilized frequently out of the slot underneath, while Rob Gronkowski is used as a field-stretcher working up the seam. The return of McDaniels and addition of Brandon Lloyd means more deep shots. Lloyd is familiar with the playbook from his days under McDaniels in Denver.

The Patriots allow gobs of yardage, especially through the air, but they will also force a lot of turnovers and dont allow as many points as youd expect of a defense that sur-renders so many yards. DT Vince Wilfork is a monster in the middle, and the team is expected to have a better pass rush in 2012 with the expected contributions from rook-ies Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower. Jerod Mayo was limited by a knee injury through most of 2011, and Brandon Spikes was also slowed by a knee injury during most of last season before bouncing back for an impressive 26 total tackles in three post-sea-son games. Patrick Chung was en route to a career year statistically before a foot inju-ry derailed him. Hes at his best in the box, but is instinctive enough in pass coverage to make up for some of New Englands deficiencies on the corners. If Mayo, Spikes and Chung can all remain healthy in 2012, the Patriots defense has a very good chance to be vastly improved.

2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 vs KAN W 17-10 L (-16) U (43)9/14 at NYJ W 19-10 W (-1) U (37)9/21 vs MIA L 13-38 L (-12) O (37)10/5 at SFO W 30-21 W (-3) O (41)10/12 at SDG L 10-30 L (+6) U (45)10/20 vs DEN W 41-7 W (-3) O (47)10/26 vs STL W 23-16 L (-9) U (41)11/2 at IND L 15-18 W (+6) U (44)11/9 vs BUF W 20-10 W (-3) U (40)11/13 vs NYJ L 31-34 L (-3) O (41)11/23 at MIA W 48-28 W (-2) O (42)11/30 vs PIT L 10-33 L (-2) O (40)12/7 at SEA W 24-21 L (-7) O (43)12/14 at OAK W 49-26 W (-7) O (38)12/21 vs ARI W 47-7 W (-8) O (41)12/28 at BUF W 13-0 W (-5) U (34)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/14 vs BUF W 25-24 L (-13) O (47)9/20 at NYJ L 9-16 L (-3) U (44)9/27 vs ATL W 26-10 W (-4) U (45)10/4 vs BAL W 27-21 W (-2) O (45)10/11 at DEN L 17-20 L (-3) U (41)10/18 vs TEN W 59-0 W (-9) O (39)10/25 vs TAM W 35-7 W (-15) U (44)11/8 vs MIA W 27-17 L (-11) U (47)11/15 at IND L 34-35 W (+3) O (48)11/22 vs NYJ W 31-14 W (-11) P (45)11/30 at NOR L 17-38 L (+2) U (57)12/6 at MIA L 21-22 L (-5) U (46)12/13 vs CAR W 20-10 L (-12) U (43)12/20 at BUF W 17-10 P (-7) U (41)12/27 vs JAC W 35-7 W (-9) U (44)1/3 at HOU L 27-34 W (+8) O (47)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 vs CIN W 38-24 W (-5) O (45)9/19 at NYJ L 14-28 L (-3) O (39)9/26 vs BUF W 38-30 L (-14) O (42)10/4 at MIA W 41-14 W (pk) O (48)10/17 vs BAL W 23-20 P (-3) U (44)10/24 at SDG W 23-20 W (+3) U (49)10/31 vs MIN W 28-18 W (-5) O (45)11/7 at CLE L 14-34 L (-4) O (43)11/14 at PIT W 39-26 W (+4) O (45)11/21 vs IND W 31-28 L (-4) O (49)11/25 at DET W 45-24 W (-6) O (50)12/6 vs NYJ W 45-3 W (-4) O (44)12/12 at CHI W 36-7 W (-3) O (37)12/19 vs GNB W 31-27 L (-14) O (43)12/26 at BUF W 34-3 W (-7) U (46)1/2 vs MIA W 38-7 W (-4) O (44)


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2012 SCHEdulE

aFC EaSt>NEW YORK JETS


STRAIGHT UP 107 412 97 118 136 88 5548 53.4%

OVERALL ATS 116 69 79 118 118 69 5249 51.5%

PRESEASON ATS 13 31 21 31 22 22 1310 56.5%

HOME ATS 53 25 35 44 44 44 2225 46.8%

ROAD ATS 63 44 44 74 74 25 3024 55.6%

VS DIVISION ATS 43 23 33 24 52 23 1818 50.0%


AS FAVORITE ATS 41 03 47 65 55 46 2327 46.0%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 75 66 32 53 63 23 2922 56.9%

OVER-UNDER 107 79 88 99 145 106 5844 56.9%


NY JETS is 3-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry the past 5 seasons.

NY JETS is 5-19 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game the past 5 seasons.

NY JETS is 9-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the past 2 seasons.

NY JETS is 11-4 ATS off a home win the past 3 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/11 vs DAL W 27-24 L (-6) O (41)9/18 vs JAC W 32-3 W (-8) U (38)9/25 at OAK L 24-34 L (-3) O (41)10/2 at BAL L 17-34 L (+5) O (43)10/9 at NWE L 21-30 L (+7) O (50)10/17 vs MIA W 24-6 W (-7) U (41)10/23 vs SDG W 27-21 W (+1) O (43)11/6 at BUF W 27-11 W (+2) U (45)11/13 vs NWE L 16-37 L (-3) O (47)11/17 at DEN L 13-17 L (-6) U (38)11/27 vs BUF W 28-24 L (-9) O (42)12/4 at WAS W 34-19 W (-3) O (39)12/11 vs KAN W 37-10 W (-10) O (35)12/18 at PHI L 19-45 L (+3) O (44)12/24 vs NYG L 14-29 L (-3) U (46)1/1 at MIA L 17-19 P (+2) U (38)


StatFox Power Rating: 20 (#15 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: 1.55 (#14 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 21.06 (7th toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 20.63 (10th toughest)2011 Record: 88 (-2.6 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 6912011 Totals (Over-Under): 106

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring +0.9 15Yardage -0.3 15Yds Per Play -0.18 20Yds Per Point -0.52 14Turnovers -3 T19

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 23.6 131st Dwn/Gm 18.8 17Yards/Game 311.8 25Yds Per Play 4.84 28Yds Per Point 13.23 3Rush Yds/Gm 105.8 22Yards Per Rush 3.82 30Pass Att/Game 34.2 17Comp/Game 19.4 19Completion % 56.7 24Pass Yds/Gm 206.1 21Pass Yds/Att 6.03 26INTs Thrown 18 T23Sacks Allowed 40 20Att/Sack 13.7 21Sack Yards 245 18

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 22.7 201st Dwn/Gm 17.0 6Yards/Game 312.1 5Yds Per Play 5.03 5Yds Per Point 13.75 29Rush Yds/Gm 111.1 13Yards Per Rush 3.94 7Pass Att/Game 31.7 T8Comp/Game 17.2 3Completion % 54.2 4Pass Yds/Gm 201.0 5Pass Yds/Att 6.34 8Interceptions 19 T10Sacks 35 T17Att/Sack 14.5 14Sack Yards 198 25

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Buffalo

at Pittsburgh

at Miami

San Francisco

Houston

Indianapolis

at New England

Miami

BYE

at Seattle

at St. Louis

New England

Arizona

at Jacksonville

at Tennessee

San Diego

at Buffalo

Ground and pound wasnt former OC Brian Schottenheimers style. However, things will be different under new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano, who preached power running recently in Miami and Dallas. It will be a change from the zone-blocking scheme the Jets ran under former offensive line coach Bill Callahan, so there could be grow-ing pains. Expect a heavy dose of Shonn Greene, though Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight should see an uptick in playing time since Sparano typically has used a time-share back-field. The Jets will surely work in some single-wing-type sets for Tim Tebow, who should see an average of up to 10 reps per game. As far as the passing game goes, Sparano wants to run a lot of play-action and get the ball downfield. But while Mark Sanchez has the feet and athleticism to make the play-action part work, hes never been an accurate downfield passer. Santonio Holmes is by far their best receiver, but rookie Stephen Hill, whos expected to start, is a better fit in this scheme. TE Dustin Keller is Sanchezs safety blanket; he and slot man Jeremy Kerley would normally be his favorite targets, but in this offense theyre likely to be secondary targets.

Say what you will about their antics and propensity to run their mouths, but the Jets defense continues to back up its talk. The one exception last year was the pass rush, where Gang Green is hoping rookie first-rounder Quinton Coples will help. If he does, it will allow David Harris to blitz less and commit to the run more often, which will improve a Jets rushing defense that was inconsistent at times in 2011. Darrelle Revis con-tinues to be the best shutdown corner in the game, and the team is hoping that LaRon Landry will make an impact at the safety position after coming over from Washington.

2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 at MIA W 20-14 W (-3) U (37)9/14 vs NWE L 10-19 L (+1) U (37)9/22 at SDG L 29-48 L (+8) O (46)9/28 vs ARI W 56-35 W (-1) O (43)10/12 vs CIN W 26-14 W (-9) U (44)10/19 at OAK L 13-16 L (-3) U (41)10/26 vs KAN W 28-24 L (-14) O (40)11/2 at BUF W 26-17 W (+5) U (43)11/9 vs STL W 47-3 W (-9) O (43)11/13 at NWE W 34-31 W (+3) O (41)11/23 at TEN W 34-13 W (+5) O (41)11/30 vs DEN L 17-34 L (-8) O (48)12/7 at SFO L 14-24 L (-5) U (45)12/14 vs BUF W 31-27 L (-8) O (41)12/21 at SEA L 3-13 L (-3) U (41)12/28 vs MIA L 17-24 L (-3) U (43)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 at HOU W 24-7 W (+4) U (44)9/20 vs NWE W 16-9 W (+3) U (44)9/27 vs TEN W 24-17 W (-1) O (36)10/4 at NOR L 10-24 L (+7) U (47)10/12 at MIA L 27-31 L (-3) O (35)10/18 vs BUF L 13-16 L (-9) U (35)10/25 at OAK W 38-0 W (-6) O (34)11/1 vs MIA L 25-30 L (-3) O (40)11/15 vs JAC L 22-24 L (-6) O (40)11/22 at NWE L 14-31 L (+11) P (45)11/29 vs CAR W 17-6 W (-3) U (41)12/3 vs BUF W 19-13 W (-3) U (37)12/13 at TAM W 26-3 W (-3) U (36)12/20 vs ATL L 7-10 L (-5) U (36)12/27 at IND W 29-15 W (+3) O (40)1/3 vs CIN W 37-0 W (-9) O (33)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 vs BAL L 9-10 L (-1) U (36)9/19 vs NWE W 28-14 W (+3) O (39)9/26 at MIA W 31-23 W (+2) O (35)10/3 at BUF W 38-14 W (-5) O (36)10/11 vs MIN W 29-20 W (-4) O (38)10/17 at DEN W 24-20 W (-3) O (42)10/31 vs GNB L 0-9 L (-6) U (41)11/7 at DET W 23-20 L (-5) O (42)11/14 at CLE W 26-20 W (-3) O (37)11/21 vs HOU W 30-27 L (-6) O (46)11/25 vs CIN W 26-10 W (-9) U (43)12/6 at NWE L 3-45 L (+4) O (44)12/12 vs MIA L 6-10 L (-4) U (38)12/19 at PIT W 22-17 W (+3) O (36)12/26 at CHI L 34-38 L (+3) O (35)1/2 vs BUF W 38-7 W (pk) O (38)


2012 SCHEdulE

aFC NortH>BALTIMORE RAVENS


STRAIGHT UP 134 511 136 108 135 135 6739 63.2%

OVERALL ATS 107 313 145 98 98 98 5449 52.4%

PRESEASON ATS 22 13 13 31 31 22 1212 50.0%

HOME ATS 63 35 62 53 35 44 2722 55.1%

ROAD ATS 44 08 83 45 63 54 2727 50.0%

VS DIVISION ATS 33 15 52 23 25 41 1719 47.2%


AS FAVORITE ATS 55 17 71 64 76 78 3331 51.6%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 52 26 74 34 22 20 2118 53.8%

OVER-UNDER 610 105 118 710 810 108 5251 50.5%


BALTIMORE is 4-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins the past 5 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 13-5 ATS off a non-conference game the past 5 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 7-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. the past 2 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 9-3 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season the past 5 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/11 vs PIT W 35-7 W (-1) O (37)9/18 at TEN L 13-26 L (-5) O (38)9/25 at STL W 37-7 W (-5) O (42)10/2 vs NYJ W 34-17 W (-5) O (43)10/16 vs HOU W 29-14 W (-6) U (43)10/24 at JAC L 7-12 L (-10) U (38)10/30 vs ARI W 30-27 L (-11) O (42)11/6 at PIT W 23-20 W (+3) O (41)11/13 at SEA L 17-22 L (-6) O (38)11/20 vs CIN W 31-24 P (-7) O (40)11/24 vs SFO W 16-6 W (-3) U (40)12/4 at CLE W 24-10 W (-7) U (38)12/11 vs IND W 24-10 L (-16) U (41)12/18 at SDG L 14-34 L (-1) O (45)12/24 vs CLE W 20-14 L (-10) U (38)1/1 at CIN W 24-16 W (-3) O (37)


StatFox Power Rating: 26 (#6 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: 4.68 (#9 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 20.06 (20th toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 20.69 (7th toughest)2011 Record: 135 (+0.6 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 9812011 Totals (Over-Under): 108

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring +7.0 5Yardage +49.8 5Yds Per Play +0.62 5Yds Per Point -3.04 5Turnovers +2 T11

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 23.6 121st Dwn/Gm 19.5 15Yards/Game 338.7 15Yds Per Play 5.23 18Yds Per Point 14.34 8Rush Yds/Gm 124.8 10Yards Per Rush 4.35 12Pass Att/Game 34.0 18Comp/Game 19.6 17Completion % 57.7 22Pass Yds/Gm 213.9 19Pass Yds/Att 6.29 21INTs Thrown 12 T5Sacks Allowed 33 T12Att/Sack 16.5 13Sack Yards 206 13

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 16.6 31st Dwn/Gm 16.8 4Yards/Game 288.9 3Yds Per Play 4.61 2Yds Per Point 17.38 8Rush Yds/Gm 92.6 2Yards Per Rush 3.54 2Pass Att/Game 33.4 15Comp/Game 18.0 5Completion % 53.8 2Pass Yds/Gm 196.3 4Pass Yds/Att 5.87 3Interceptions 15 T17Sacks 48 T3Att/Sack 11.1 3Sack Yards 290 5


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Cincinnati

at Philadelphia

New England

Cleveland

at Kansas City

Dallas

at Houston

BYE

at Cleveland

Oakland

at Pittsburgh

at San Diego

Pittsburgh

at Washington

Denver

N.Y. Giants

at Cincinnati

The Ravens have slowly and successfully transitioned to a zone-blocking scheme over the past couple of seasons. Theyve steadily mixed in more and more zone stretch plays for Ray Rice and have had plenty of success doing it, especially now that their line heav-ily utilizes cut blocking. They still use a lot of two-back sets with Rice running behind Vonta Leach. Rice will take a very heavy load again; even with Ricky Williams on the roster last season, Rice played more than 75 percent of their offensive snaps, so expect rookie Bernard Pierce to be used sparingly. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron had always wanted to stretch the field but never had the receiver to do it until Torrey Smith emerged last season. Cameron has said hell use more two tight end sets, as they did toward the end of last season. Dennis Pitta outperformed Ed Dickson in the second half of the year and is the one receiver Joe Flacco consistently looked for over the middle. Rice will also continue to have a huge role in the passing game, not only as a safety valve, but also on screens and in the slot to create mismatches. Anquan Boldin was a popular target in the end zone last year.

The off-season Achilles injury to reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs could be enough to keep this from being an elite defense. Baltimore does have experience in veterans Ed Reed and Ray Lewisneither of whom shows any signifi-cant signs of slowing downand Haloti Ngata is one of the best interior linemen in the league. Cornerback Lardarius Webb capped his first year as a starter with three inter-ceptions in the playoffs, and Bernard Pollard had 89 total tackles (62 solo) in 15 games (including playoffs) as a full-time player.

2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 vs CIN W 17-10 W (+2) U (38)9/21 vs CLE W 28-10 W (-3) O (36)9/29 at PIT L 20-23 W (+6) O (34)10/5 vs TEN L 10-13 L (+1) U (33)10/12 at IND L 3-31 L (+4) U (39)10/19 at MIA W 27-13 W (+3) O (35)10/26 vs OAK W 29-10 W (-8) O (34)11/2 at CLE W 37-27 W (+3) O (36)11/9 at HOU W 41-13 W (+3) O (44)11/16 at NYG L 10-30 L (+6) O (39)11/23 vs PHI W 36-7 W (-2) O (39)11/30 at CIN W 34-3 W (-7) O (36)12/7 vs WAS W 24-10 W (-6) U (35)12/14 vs PIT L 9-13 L (-3) U (34)12/20 at DAL W 33-24 W (+5) O (39)12/28 vs JAC W 27-7 W (-10) U (37)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 vs KAN W 38-24 W (-13) O (37)9/20 at SDG W 31-26 W (+1) O (41)9/27 vs CLE W 34-3 W (-13) U (38)10/4 at NWE L 21-27 L (+2) O (45)10/11 vs CIN L 14-17 L (-9) U (42)10/18 at MIN L 31-33 W (+3) O (45)11/1 vs DEN W 30-7 W (-4) U (42)11/8 at CIN L 7-17 L (-3) U (45)11/16 at CLE W 16-0 W (-11) U (39)11/22 vs IND L 15-17 L (+1) U (44)11/29 vs PIT W 20-17 L (-7) O (34)12/7 at GNB L 14-27 L (+4) U (43)12/13 vs DET W 48-3 W (-14) O (40)12/20 vs CHI W 31-7 W (-10) U (39)12/27 at PIT L 20-23 P (+3) P (43)1/3 at OAK W 21-13 L (-10) U (39)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 at NYJ W 10-9 W (+1) U (36)9/19 at CIN L 10-15 L (-3) U (39)9/26 vs CLE W 24-17 L (-12) O (36)10/3 at PIT W 17-14 W (+2) U (34)10/10 vs DEN W 31-17 W (-8) O (39)10/17 at NWE L 20-23 P (+3) U (44)10/24 vs BUF W 37-34 L (-12) O (39)11/7 vs MIA W 26-10 W (-5) U (41)11/11 at ATL L 21-26 L (+2) O (44)11/21 at CAR W 37-13 W (-13) O (36)11/28 vs TAM W 17-10 L (-7) U (41)12/5 vs PIT L 10-13 L (-3) U (38)12/13 at HOU W 34-28 W (-3) O (47)12/19 vs NOR W 30-24 W (-2) O (45)12/26 at CLE W 20-10 W (-3) U (39)1/2 vs CIN W 13-7 L (-9) U (43)


2012 SCHEdulE


aFC NortH

CINCINNATI BENGALS


STRAIGHT UP 88 79 411 107 412 98 4255 43.3%

OVERALL ATS 87 69 79 710 79 87 4351 45.7%

PRESEASON ATS 40 22 22 22 23 13 1312 52.0%

HOME ATS 34 44 44 36 44 35 2127 43.8%

ROAD ATS 53 25 35 44 35 52 2224 47.8%

VS DIVISION ATS 42 33 15 42 33 14 1619 45.7%


AS FAVORITE ATS 54 46 12 08 13 43 1526 36.6%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 33 23 67 72 66 44 2825 52.8%

OVER-UNDER 79 79 510 89 88 124 4749 49.0%


CINCINNATI is 0-14 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game the past 5 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing defenses - allowing 175 or less passing yards/game the past 5 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 3-10 ATS off a loss against a division rival the past 5 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 0-9 ATS after a 2 game road trip the past 5 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/11 at CLE W 27-17 W (+7) O (36)9/18 at DEN L 22-24 W (+3) O (40)9/25 vs SFO L 8-13 L (-3) U (40)10/2 vs BUF W 23-20 W (+3) O (42)10/9 at JAC W 30-20 W (-2) O (36)10/16 vs IND W 27-17 W (-5) O (40)10/30 at SEA W 34-12 W (-1) O (37)11/6 at TEN W 24-17 W (+3) P (41)11/13 vs PIT L 17-24 L (+3) O (40)11/20 at BAL L 24-31 P (+7) O (40)11/27 vs CLE W 23-20 L (-6) O (38)12/4 at PIT L 7-35 L (+7) U (43)12/11 vs HOU L 19-20 L (-3) O (37)12/18 at STL W 20-13 P (-7) U (38)12/24 vs ARI W 23-16 W (-4) U (41)1/1 vs BAL L 16-24 L (+3) O (37)


StatFox Power Rating: 18 (#19 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: -0.75 (#18 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 19.41 (27th toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 20.56 (12nd toughest)2011 Record: 98 (+1.9 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 8722011 Totals (Over-Under): 1241

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring +1.3 13Yardage +3.6 13Yds Per Play +0.03 16Yds Per Point -0.79 13Turnovers E 17

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 21.5 181st Dwn/Gm 17.8 22Yards/Game 319.9 20Yds Per Play 5.04 23Yds Per Point 14.88 9Rush Yds/Gm 111.1 19Yards Per Rush 3.91 27Pass Att/Game 33.4 20Comp/Game 19.3 20Completion % 57.6 23Pass Yds/Gm 208.8 20Pass Yds/Att 6.24 22INTs Thrown 14 T12Sacks Allowed 25 T4Att/Sack 21.4 5Sack Yards 167 5

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 20.2 91st Dwn/Gm 17.8 7Yards/Game 316.3 7Yds Per Play 5.01 4Yds Per Point 15.67 17Rush Yds/Gm 104.7 10Yards Per Rush 3.94 8Pass Att/Game 33.7 18Comp/Game 19.9 13Completion % 59.2 12Pass Yds/Gm 211.6 9Pass Yds/Att 6.28 5Interceptions 10 T26Sacks 45 5Att/Sack 12.0 4Sack Yards 277 9

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Baltimore

The Bengals returned to a run-first offense in 2011, and that should continue with BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepping in for Cedric Benson. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden mixed in some more zone blocking principles and stretch plays last year, something that didnt fit with Benson at all. The Bengals have been looking to get Bernard Scott more involved, and this year they should be able to do it. Expect a 60/40 early-down split for Green-Ellis and Scott, with Brian Leonard keeping his third down role because of his abili-ty as a pass protector. Green-Ellis figures to be the focal point of their red zone offense. In the passing game, Gruden prefers to pressure secondaries deep. A lot of their best plays were jump balls to A.J. Green. Either rookies Mohamed Sanu or Marvin Jones, or Jordan Shipley could slide in opposite Green on the outside, and Gruden will have to tweak the offense since none of them are deep threats. They use a lot of three-WR sets, so there should be ample playing time for two of those secondary targets. TE Jermaine Gresham is the No. 2 target for Dalton, and this offense creates room for him over the middle. The backs are more for pass protection than receiving.

The Bengals defense showed an ability to get to the quarterback in 2011, with 14 players contributing at least one sack to a total that placed fifth in the NFL. Rookie CB Dre Kirkpatrick will help out the defense with his coverage skills, but this unit doesnt make enough big plays to provide the offense with a lot of short fields. The one guy in the secondary who is capable of making a big play is Reggie Nelson, a rangy centerfield-er at free safety with solid ball skills.

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2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 at BAL L 10-17 L (-2) U (38)9/14 vs TEN L 7-24 L (+1) U (37)9/21 at NYG L 23-26 W (+12) O (42)9/28 vs CLE L 12-20 L (-1) U (42)10/5 at DAL L 22-31 W (+16) O (46)10/12 at NYJ L 14-26 L (+9) U (44)10/19 vs PIT L 10-38 L (+7) O (36)10/26 at HOU L 6-35 L (+9) U (46)11/2 vs JAC W 21-19 W (+7) P (40)11/16 vs PHI T 13-13 W (+8) U (41)11/20 at PIT L 10-27 L (+12) O (34)11/30 vs BAL L 3-34 L (+7) O (36)12/7 at IND L 3-35 L (+13) U (41)12/14 vs WAS W 20-13 W (+6) U (35)12/21 at CLE W 14-0 W (+2) U (31)12/28 vs KAN W 16-6 W (-1) U (40)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 vs DEN L 7-12 L (-5) U (41)9/20 at GNB W 31-24 W (+9) O (41)9/27 vs PIT W 23-20 W (+3) O (36)10/4 at CLE W 23-20 L (-6) O (37)10/11 at BAL W 17-14 W (+9) U (42)10/18 vs HOU L 17-28 L (-3) U (46)10/25 vs CHI W 45-10 W (+1) O (42)11/8 vs BAL W 17-7 W (+3) U (45)11/15 at PIT W 18-12 W (+7) U (41)11/22 at OAK L 17-20 L (-8) O (36)11/29 vs CLE W 16-7 L (-12) U (39)12/6 vs DET W 23-13 L (-13) U (42)12/13 at MIN L 10-30 L (+6) U (42)12/20 at SDG L 24-27 W (+6) O (44)12/27 vs KAN W 17-10 L (-13) U (39)1/3 at NYJ L 0-37 L (+9) O (33)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 at NWE L 24-38 L (+5) O (45)9/19 vs BAL W 15-10 W (+3) U (39)9/26 at CAR W 20-7 W (-3) U (37)10/3 at CLE L 20-23 L (-2) O (36)10/10 vs TAM L 21-24 L (-6) O (38)10/24 at ATL L 32-39 L (+3) O (43)10/31 vs MIA L 14-22 L (+1) U (44)11/8 vs PIT L 21-27 L (+5) O (41)11/14 at IND L 17-23 W (+7) U (47)11/21 vs BUF L 31-49 L (-4) O (41)11/25 at NYJ L 10-26 L (+9) U (43)12/5 vs NOR L 30-34 W (+6) O (45)12/12 at PIT L 7-23 L (+8) U (40)12/19 vs CLE W 19-17 W (pk) U (41)12/26 vs SDG W 34-20 W (+7) O (43)1/2 at BAL L 7-13 W (+9) U (43)

SituatioNal rECordS

2012 SCHEdulE

aFC NortH>CLEVELAND BROWNS


STRAIGHT UP 412 106 412 511 511 412 3264 33.3%

OVERALL ATS 87 124 69 106 510 78 4844 52.2%

PRESEASON ATS 22 31 04 22 22 13 1014 41.7%

HOME ATS 44 71 25 53 26 25 2224 47.8%

ROAD ATS 43 53 44 53 34 53 2620 56.5%

VS DIVISION ATS 33 42 24 42 24 42 1917 52.8%


AS FAVORITE ATS 22 81 04 20 02 24 1413 51.9%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 65 43 65 86 58 54 3431 52.3%

OVER-UNDER 79 96 69 79 97 411 4251 45.2%


CLEVELAND is 0-5 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season the past 2 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 3-10 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game the past 5 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 7-2 ATS in games played on turf the past 3 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game the past 5 seasons.

2011 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/11 vs CIN L 17-27 L (-7) O (36)9/18 at IND W 27-19 W (-1) O (39)9/25 vs MIA W 17-16 L (-2) U (41)10/2 vs TEN L 13-31 L (-1) O (37)10/16 at OAK L 17-24 L (+6) U (45)10/23 vs SEA W 6-3 P (-3) U (41)10/30 at SFO L 10-20 L (+9) U (38)11/6 at HOU L 12-30 L (+10) U (42)11/13 vs STL L 12-13 L (-3) U (36)11/20 vs JAC W 14-10 W (-1) U (34)11/27 at CIN L 20-23 W (+6) O (38)12/4 vs BAL L 10-24 L (+7) U (38)12/8 at PIT L 3-14 W (+14) U (40)12/18 at ARI L 17-20 W (+6) P (37)12/24 at BAL L 14-20 W (+10) U (38)1/1 vs PIT L 9-13 W (+7) U (33)


StatFox Power Rating: 15 (#25 of 32)StatFox Outplay Factor: -4.24 (#23 of 32)2011 Schedule Strength: 20.06 (18th toughest)2012 Schedule Strength: 20.38 (14th toughest)2011 Record: 412 (-10.55 ML units)2011 Record Against the Spread: 7812011 Totals (Over-Under): 4111

2011 StatS/raNKDIFFERENTIALS NO. RANKScoring -5.6 27Yardage -43.6 28Yds Per Play -0.63 28Yds Per Point +3.87 27Turnovers +1 T13

OFFENSE NO. RANKPoints Scored 13.6 301st Dwn/Gm 17.4 25Yards/Game 288.8 29Yds Per Play 4.51 30Yds Per Point 21.20 30Rush Yds/Gm 95.7 28Yards Per Rush 3.69 31Pass Att/Game 35.6 T11Comp/Game 20.0 15Completion % 56.1 27Pass Yds/Gm 193.1 24Pass Yds/Att 5.42 30INTs Thrown 13 T8Sacks Allowed 39 T18Att/Sack 14.6 T17Sack Yards 210 15

DEFENSE NO. RANKPoints Allowed 19.2 51st Dwn/Gm 18.8 13Yards/Game 332.4 10Yds Per Play 5.14 9Yds Per Point 17.32 9Rush Yds/Gm 147.4 30Yards Per Rush 4.42 21Pass Att/Game 29.3 2Comp/Game 16.6 2Completion % 56.5 6Pass Yds/Gm 184.9 2Pass Yds/Att 6.31 6Interceptions 9 T28Sacks 32 T23Att/Sack 14.7 15Sack Yards 199 24


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week 17

Philadelphia

at Cincinnati

Buffalo

at Baltimore

at N.Y. Giants

Cincinnati

at Indianapolis

San Diego

Baltimore

BYE

at Dallas

Pittsburgh

at Oakland

Kansas City

Washington

at Denver

at Pittsburgh

Head coach Pat Shurmur would like to make this offense more pass-heavy, but rook-ie Trent Richardson is by far his best offensive player. Theyll continue to pound the ball between the tackles, and Richardson can stay on the field for three downs. Veteran Brandon Jackson may split third down reps with Richardson. The red zone touches will be Richardsons, as everything Cleveland does in the red zone is based on the run. Like Shurmur, new offensive coordinator Brad Childress comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree, so there will be no big changes in the passing attack. With Brandon Weeden start-ing, this will continue to be a classic West Coast attack, and Greg Little will continue to see the majority of passes. TE Benjamin Watson is the default No. 2 over the middle, while Mohamed Massaquois lack of separation skills relegate him to being an infrequent target. They also find uses for TE Evan Moore, who can stretch the middle of the field.

Cleveland actually allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league last year, but the Browns defense doesnt make enough big plays to compensate for their weak offense. Manning the middle after Clevelands switch to a 4-3 defense was DQwell Jackson, whose 116 solo tackles were the most anyone in the NFL has had since 2007. The best player on this unit is DE Jabaal Sheard, who dominated as a rookie, playing every down and piling up six sacks in his final seven games. DT Ahtyba Rubin remained a run-stuffing monster and also started flashing some pass-rushing ability. Free-agent signee Frostee Rucker is a solid run-stuffer. T.J. Wards disappointing 2011 was cut short by a serious foot sprain, but hes still a promising young downhill safety. Shutdown CB Joe Haden battled a knee injury for parts of last season and should also be better in 2012.

2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 vs DAL L 10-28 L (+6) U (48)9/14 vs PIT L 6-10 W (+6) U (43)9/21 at BAL L 10-28 L (+3) O (36)9/28 at CIN W 20-12 W (+1) U (42)10/13 vs NYG W 35-14 W (+7) O (42)10/19 at WAS L 11-14 W (+7) U (41)10/26 at JAC W 23-17 W (+7) U (41)11/2 vs BAL L 27-37 L (-3) O (36)11/6 vs DEN L 30-34 L (-3) O (46)11/17 at BUF W 29-27 W (+5) O (41)11/23 vs HOU L 6-16 L (-3) U (49)11/30 vs IND L 6-10 P (+4) U (44)12/7 at TEN L 9-28 L (+13) O (36)12/15 at PHI L 10-30 L (+15) P (40)12/21 vs CIN L 0-14 L (-2) U (31)12/28 at PIT L 0-31 L (+11) U (33)

2009 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/13 vs MIN L 20-34 L (+4) O (39)9/20 at DEN L 6-27 L (+3) U (39)9/27 at BAL L 3-34 L (+13) U (38)10/4 vs CIN L 20-23 W (+6) O (37)10/11 at BUF W 6-3 W (+5) U (41)10/18 at PIT L 14-27 W (+13) O (37)10/25 vs GNB L 3-31 L (+8) U (41)11/1 at CHI L 6-30 L (+11) U (39)11/16 vs BAL L 0-16 L (+11) U (39)11/22 at DET L 37-38 W (+3) O (37)11/29 at CIN L 7-16 W (+12) U (39)12/6 vs SDG L 23-30 W (+13) O (42)12/10 vs PIT W 13-6 W (+10) U (34)12/20 at KAN W 41-34 W (+2) O (39)12/27 vs OAK W 23-9 W (-3) U (37)1/3 vs JAC W 23-17 W (-2) O (35)

2010 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/12 at TAM L 14-17 P (+3) U (37)9/19 vs KAN L 14-16 L (-3) U (38)9/26 at BAL L 17-24 W (+12) O (36)10/3 vs CIN W 23-20 W (+2) O (36)10/10 vs ATL L 10-20 L (+3) U (41)10/17 at PIT L 10-28 L (+14) O (37)10/24 at NOR W 30-17 W (+12) O (44)11/7 vs NWE W 34-14 W (+4) O (43)11/14 vs NYJ L 20-26 L (+3) O (37)11/21 at JAC L 20-24 L (+3) O (43)11/28 vs CAR W 24-23 L (-8) O (37)12/5 at MIA W 13-10 W (+6) U (43)12/12 at BUF L 6-13 L (pk) U (39)12/19 at CIN L 17-19 L (pk) U (41)12/26 vs BAL L 10-20 L (+3) U (39)1/2 vs PIT L 9-41 L (+6) O (37)


2012 SCHEdulE


aFC NortH

PITTSBURGH STEELERS


NFL Preview

AFC SouthAFC W

estN

FC EastN

FC North

NFC W

estTeam

SchedulesW

eekly Schedule


STRAIGHT UP 88 107 154 97 145 125 6836 65.4%

OVERALL ATS 79 98 118 510 127 710 5152 49.5%

PRESEASON ATS 13 32 13 31 31 31 1411 56.0%

HOME ATS 53 63 64 25 73 53 3121 59.6%

ROAD ATS 26 35 54 35 54 27 2031 39.2%

VS DIVISION ATS 24 42 52 14 61 24 2017 54.1%


AS FAVORITE ATS 67 87 77 410 95 67 4043 48.2%

AS UNDERDOG ATS 12 11 41 10 32 13 119 55.0%

OVER-UNDER 106 98 118 96 109 710 5647 54.4%


PITTSBURGH is 8-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses the past 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 4-10 ATS off a home win the past 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 2-8 ATS versus poor offensive teams - averaging

at Denver

N.Y. Jets

at Oakland

BYE

Philadelphia

at Tennessee

at Cincinnati

Washington

at N.Y. Giants

Kansas City

Baltimore

at Cleveland

at Baltimore

San Diego

at Dallas

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Much was made about former coordinator Bruce Arians aversion to the running game, and new offensive coordinator Todd Haley seems to have been brought in to cor-rect that. The Steelers have a big, man-blocking line and Haley prefers the committee approach. With Rashard Mendenhall recovering from a torn ACL, Isaac Redman will get a heavy workload early in the season. Jonathan Dwyer figures to take a chunk of the early down reps. Redman can handle third down duties, though Baron Batch could push him for that role. In the passing game, expect a lot of three-receiver sets and spread prin-ciples, with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown on the outside and Emmanuel Sanders in the slot. Ben Roethlisbergers trademark is improvising and stretching out plays. Wallace might more often be the primary target, but Brown has shown more of an ability to shake open once the play breaks down. TE Heath Miller often stays in to protect. When the Steelers throw near the goal line, its often play-action to someone in the middle of the field (Miller or the slot receiver, possibly Sanders now).

The Steelers were tied for ninth in the league in sacks despite a rash of injuries to their linebackers. Although they forced an NFL-low 15 turnovers in 2011, Pittsburgh still led the league in scoring defense and yardage defensethe 2012 schedule is kind enough to allow for a repeat of these numbers. Lawrence Timmons numbers were down last year because of a move to outside linebacker for about a third of the season. Hell play inside full time in 2012, and his numbers could revert closer to where they were in 2010. Troy Polamalu, meanwhile, looked a half-step slow by the end of last season due to all the nagging injuries hes been dealing with. He appears to finally be on the decline.

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2008 OPP SCORE ATS TOTAL 9/7 vs HOU W 38-17 W (-6) O (44)9/14 at CLE W 10-6 L (-6) U (43)9/21 at PHI L 6-15 L (+3) U (44)9/29 vs BAL W 23-20 L (-6) O (34)10/5 at JAC W 26-21 W (+5) O (38)10/19 at CIN W 38-10 W (-7) O (36)10/26 vs NYG L 14-21 L (-3) U (41)11/3 at WAS W 23-6 W (+3) U (37)11/9 vs IND L 20-24 L (-3) O (39)11/16 vs SDG W 11-10 L (-4) U (40)11/20 vs CIN W 27-10 W (-12) O (3

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