the 2002/3 season in south africa complex stresses, complex warnings & responses ackn: sei,...
TRANSCRIPT
The 2002/3 Season in South Africa
Complex stresses, complex warnings & responses
Ackn: SEI, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, NOAA-OGP, USAID
Emma Archer and Gina Ziervogel
The big picture for 2002/3…
• SADC region experienced state of ‘complex crisis’
• In South Africa, dry summer rainfall season with substantial impacts
• Will view at the national and district level
• Despite improved warning & response support measures; constrained response & adaptation
• What went wrong ?
At the national level in South Africa
• Limpopo Province: widespread livestock mortalities
• Potential R46 million payout in aid/subsidy
• Mpumalanga & Northwest: further livestock mortality and crop water stress
At the district level in South Africa
• Vhembe district: drought impacts
• Particularly significant north of the Soutpansberg – livestock mortality
• Crop water stress reported January and ongoing throughout the remainder of the season
• Built on substandard (quality, not amount) rainfall season of 2001/2002 accumulated effects
The good news …
• A time of advances in climate prediction + intermediary mechanisms
• Vhembe: forecast received by– Farmers– District institutions
• Limpopo Province: forecast received by PDA What happened ?
Some preliminary ideas• EWS itself needs improvement
• CONSTRAINTS on RESPONSE– Individual
• Multiple stressors• Need to couple EWS with VA
– Institutional• Institutional issues central to 2002/3• Need to couple EWS with increased institutional capacity
building
A broad framework for considering such case studies
Climate
PopulationGrowth
(might be + or – in rural areas)
Economic growth
Technologicalchange
Food insecurity
Degradedenvironment
Stressed social relations
Relationships between Global/regional/national and local
Regional and national drivers
Local realisations
Key Relationships in the South African case
Food security/Drought as a local realization of global, regional, national and local drivers
Decreased tourism
Climate
Health
Economic change
Security
Grain stocks and reserves
Local realisations
Weakened labour force
Early Warning System
Relationship between global and local
Household Food insecurity
Global drivers
HIV+/AIDS
Market failure
Livestock mortality
Drought relief
Agricultural advisory
Agricultural support
Institutional capability
Limited resources
Institutional
capability
South African Case
• In the South African story, which are the key relationships that were identified?
• What is the nature of those relationships– Who are the key actors?– How have the interactions changed over
time?– How might the interactions change in the
future to best address the local concern?
Key Relationships• National Department of Agriculture and District Departments
Suggestions that relationships have become more complex this year (needs work)
• Media • Radio broadcast of the forecast SAWS and local users (farmers)
Improved this year• District organisations and farmers
• Extension officers• Education/outreach
Not certain if improved this year• Agricultural advisory
- ARC and NDAImproved this year (needs work)
Conclusions
• Process mapping is paramount
• Stakeholder and institutional mapping helps to identify strengths and weaknesses in roles and relationships
• This helps to focus further action – At the intervention level– For research