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The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum

Jae-Kyung E. SchemmClimate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA

September 29, 20082008 CPPA PI Meeting

Silver Spring, MD

Acknowledgements: David Gochis, NCARWei Shi, Lindsey Long, Kingtse Mo, CPC/NCEPMyong-In Lee and Siegfried Schubert, GMAO/GSFCJohn Roads, Masao Kanamitsu, Laurel DeHaan andElena Yulaeva, ECPC/UCSD

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The NAME Forecast ForumThe NAME Forecast Forum

•• Proposed at the Proposed at the NAME SWG9 as a NAME Project legacy activity to provide a NAME SWG9 as a NAME Project legacy activity to provide a realreal--timetime consolidationconsolidation and assessment of intraand assessment of intra--seasonal and seasonal seasonal and seasonal monsoonmonsoon forecastsforecasts

•• Simultaneously track monsoon precipitation behaviour during the Simultaneously track monsoon precipitation behaviour during the seasonseason

•• Adopted as part of the CPC global monsoon monitoring activitiesAdopted as part of the CPC global monsoon monitoring activities

•• 2008 is the first year of the forum and focused on precipitation2008 is the first year of the forum and focused on precipitation onlyonly

•• CPC web address:CPC web address:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Mhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoonsonsoons

/NAME/index./NAME/index.shtmlshtml

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r

For the initial implementation in 2008, only precipitation is monitoredin terms of:

1. Monthly precipitation2. Zonal precipitation averages in daily timeseries - updated daily

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JJA 2008 Accumulated Precipitation- URD

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- URD

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JJA08URD

CFS IC04 GMAO IC04

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JJA08URD

ECPC-CM IC04 ECPC-DS IC04

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(NW Mex)

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(AZ)

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(NM))

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(E. SMO)

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(SW Mex)

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NW MX AZ

NM E SMO

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SW MX Baha

S CA 4 CNR

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Tropical Storms in Eastern Pacific, May - September, 2008

Tropical storms affecting NAME region: Hi Boris(6/27-7/4), H2 Elida(7/11-19),H2 Fausto(7/16-22), H1 Genevieve(7/21-27), H3 Hernan(8/6-13),TS Iselle(8/13-17), TD 11E(8/23), TS Lowell(9/7-12)

17Boris Fausto Hernan Iselle Depression 11E

(b)

(a)

Good correspondences between surges and rainfall.

However, there were surges NOT related to tropical storms

Tropical storms in east Pacific

Moisture Surge and Rainfall

associated with NAM rainfall:Hurricane-1 Boris 27 Jun-4 JulHurricane-2 Elida 12-29 JulHurricane-2 Fausto 16-22 JulHurricane-1 Genevieve 21-27 JulHurricane-3 Hernan 6-13 AugTS Iselle 13-17 AugDepression 11E 21-23 Aug

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• 2008 monsoon precipitation: Above normal over most of NAME region

• Global models failed to capture the monsoon precipitation, but ECPC down-scaled regional model captured the above normal precip during monsoon season in NW Mexico, AZ and NM regions - Further investigation needed into the merit of regional down-scaling

• Frequent surge events over Gulf of California related to the tropical storm activities over the Eastern Pacific - additional parameters for the forum next year

• NAME Forecast Forum will be part of the CPC monsoon season review at the end of October

• Future plan to continue the Forecast Forum and expand to includemonsoon systems in both North and South America - linkage to the IASCLIP Project

Summary