the 2011 census in the west midlands: housing trends and patterns richard turkington, rachel wright...
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The 2011 Census in the West Midlands: housing trends and patterns
Richard Turkington, Rachel Wright & John Connell
22nd April 2013 | The Futures Network West Midlands
StructureWithin the limitations of published Census data: • Take stock of changes since 2001• Where are we now?• Where do we go from here?• The Big Questions
Understanding the mapsRed/pink = high: which does not always mean good!Dark/pale blue = low: which is not always bad!
Taking Stock: growth
2.3 million homes, growth of 144,000 or 7%• Lowest: North Warwickshire 2.5%• Highest: Rugby 15%What type of homes have been added?• Detached: 19% (24% in total)• Semi-detached: 24% (37% in total)• Terraced: 15% (23% in total)• Purpose-built flats: 35% (13% in total)• Converted flats: 4% (2% in total)• Other: 3% (1% in total)
Tenure Change
Private rented sector• As a proportion - has doubled to 14%• Sector has grown everywhere, from 55% in
Stratford to almost 300% in RedditchHome ownership• As a proportion - declined from 69% to 65%• Numbers have grown by 6% in Shropshire
but fallen by 7% in Coventry
Tenure change
Where has this left social renting?• As a proportion - declined from 21% to 19%The place of shared ownership?• Stabilised at 0.7% - growth of 750 units• 0.35% in Staffordshire Moorlands to 1.1% in
Stratford-upon-Avon• Strongest growth in Birmingham - 500 units• Stock has declined in some locations• By over 700 units in Stoke-on-Trent
Tenure & older people
Very different patterns for 65+ households:• 75% home ownership• 19% social rented• 4% private rentingImplications?• Level of equity owned• Good quality of social rented housing• Poor quality of private rented housing• The likelihood of downsizing• What if this doesn’t happen?
Where are we now?Under-occupation
2 or more bedrooms:
• 36% for all households• Likely to be double for 65+ households• From 26% in Stoke-on-Trent• To 48% in Bromsgrove
Where are we now?Overcrowding
• 3.9% of all households have 1 bedroom less than their requirements
• 0.7% have 2 bedrooms less• From 1.8% in Bromsgrove, Malvern &
Stratford• To 7% in Sandwell & 9% in Birmingham
Where are we now?The quality of housing
No central heating• 3% of all households• From 1.5-1.6% in Redditch, Cannock and
Lichfield • To 3.9-4.1% in East Staffordshire &
BirminghamThough can people afford to use it?
Where do we go from here?Gross requirements 2011-21
Gross housing requirements by age and bedsizeAge/Bedsize 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85 + Totals
Shared 5,775 5,680 -2,136 -3,584 1,123 -1,331 5,512 12,039 6,072 29,150
1 bed -7,454 1,293 -5,513 -4,634 22,322 -11,548 10,776 29,681 28,258 63,181
2 bed -1,070 8,362 11,055 16,425 4,947 1,112 1,090 823 726 43,470
3 bed 1,107 5,571 -6,924 -1,788 13,190 4,643 11,235 3,951 269 31,254
4 bed + 159 1,702 1,931 5,029 398 430 562 244 138 10,593
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85 +
Totals -1,483 22,608 -1,587 11,448 41,980 -6,694 29,175 46,738 35,463 177,648
Where do we go from here?Net requirements 2011-21
Net housing requirements by bedsize taking account of underoccupation and low levels of downsizing
Specialised housing for older people
Bedsize Shared 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed+ Total net additional households
Totals 29,150 32,259 43,470 62,176 10,593 + 177,648
65+ Households Designated Sheltered Extra Care Totals
2011 40,845 19,481 35,715 96,041
2021 47,850 22,822 41,841 112,513
Additional households 7,006 3,341 6,126 16,473
Specialised housing as % of total net requirement 9.27%
The Big Questions
1. Understanding housing market dynamics - ‘musical chairs’, changing requirements & the ‘fit’ between housing and households?
2. The place of regeneration and renewal?3. The emergence of new problems in old areas
or new problems in new areas?4. The stability and security of private renting?5. Housing older people - stay or move?6. Providing more homes - quantity & quality?