the 2014 elections and dynamics of change
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The 2014 Elections and Dynamics of Change. James Van Z orge. AIC March 2014. The 2014 elections and dynamics of change Forces-at-work. A New Voter. 1/3 of electorate (60m people) are f irst -time participants in 2014 - not loyal to any political party. Requires new ways to reach out. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The 2014 Elections and Dynamics of Change
James Van Zorge
AIC March 2014
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The 2014 elections and dynamics of change
Forces-at-work
An entrenched elite controlling political parties has been behind the setting of high barriers-to-entry for presidential candidates through electoral laws.
FluidPolitical
Environment
The Oligarchs
A New Voter
1/3 of electorate (60m people) are first-time participants in 2014 - not loyal to any political party. Requires new ways to reach out.
Apparent candidates: PDI-P’s Joko Widodo, Golkar Aburizal Bakrie, Gerindra’s Prabowo Subianto. A Jokowi’s victory would signal the beginning of change in Indonesian PoliticsDynamics of Change
The Jokowi Factor
Huge surprise from Joko Widodo’ victory to be Jakarta governer, served as a wake-up call for the major political parties. A new figure with a common touch and strong connection with the broad masses
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The 2014 elections and dynamics of change
The Big Questions Critical challenges for Joko Widodo or “Jokowi”, the front runner
− How to maintain popular appeal. Jokowi’s opponent will be using all means to attack his image as an effective and clean leader.
− Who would be the ideal coalition partners. The choice of coalition partners needs to be strategic to guarantee victory.
− Who is the right running mate. The choice of VP for PDI-P will influence voter decisions.
Tough challenges faced by Prabowo Subianto, currently pooling second− How to pass the threshold. First, a vote for Gerindra party is a vote for his
presidency; and second, finding willing and capable coalition partners.
− Getting the ‘right’ running mate. To find the one that can compensate for his weaknesses and connect with the electorate.
Aburizal Bakrie, the least popular candidate− Victory is not the point. He probably knows he can’t win, but his main
objective is to remain as chairman of Golkar and therefore retain his political influence (and protect his business empire).
The 2014 elections and dynamics of change
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Scenarios and their implicationsThe oligarchy continues Very low probability
Triggers
Prabowo Subianto fails to qualify as a presidential candidate.
PDI-P performs way below expectations
Unlikely pairing of Aburizal Bakrie as running mate for Joko Widodo.
Implications
Joko Widodo would be surrounded by a cabinet not of his making and VP at complete odds with his agenda
Worst-case scenario for Indonesia, a replay of the old school money politics and rampant corruption
Triggers
Gerindra party secures >10% in parliamentary election
PDI-P performs less than expected in parliamentary election
Rumors and/or news that taint Jokowi’s reputation
Implications
Prabowo’s presidency would mark a departure in style from his predecessors
Risk of Prabowo’s ‘second-class temperament’ to be a strong liability and harm his prestige within elite circles and public
Would not expect Prabowo’s policies to be radically different from his predecessors
The 2014 elections and dynamics of change
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Scenarios and their implicationsThe general risesMedium-low probability
The 2014 elections and dynamics of change
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Scenarios and their implicationsA new beginningHigh probability
Triggers
Joko Widodo is able to pick a credible running mate
Prabowo and Bakrie continue to poll significantly below Joko Widodo.
The presidential elections (July 9) are decided in the first round.
Implications
Joko Widodo would seem to bring the greatest reform chance. But Megawai will remain in control of PDI-P.
Challenge on how Joko Widodo deals with a anti-reform minded DPR
Another challenge on how to deal with local governments