the 2018 elections...• all 435 u.s. house seats were up • 35 of 100 u.s. senate seats were up...
TRANSCRIPT
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The 2018 Elections
Kathryn PearsonAssociate Professor of Political Science
University of Minnesota
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• All 435 U.S. House seats were up
• 35 of 100 U.S. Senate seats were up
• Midterm Election Effects:– President’s party is disadvantaged – Presidential approval and the economy
matter– Lower turnout than in presidential elections
2018 Midterm Elections
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23 GOP Districts Voted for Clinton
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12 Democratic Districts Voted for Trump
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Midterm elections are nationalized and a referendum on the President
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Red Shift from 2012 to 2016
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Democrats Gained Seats in the Suburbs
Source: New York Times
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Democrats Gained Seats in Wealthier Districts
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Minnesota House Races: Half of delegation switches parties
• 1st District Flips – Jim Hagedorn (R) + 0.4
• 2nd District Flips – Angie Craig (D) + 5.6
• 3rd District Flips – Dean Phillips (D) + 11.4
• 8th District Flips– Pete Stauber (R) + 5.5
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Minnesota Independent Expenditures(with one week to go)
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Turnout
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Vote Choice - Gender
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Gender Divide – 1982 to 2018
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Gender Gap: Men Have Left the Democratic Party
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Women are not a monolithic group
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Age
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18-29 and 60 plus, 1982 to 2018
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Race
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Race, 1982-2018
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Education
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Midterm Voters Vote Their Party
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Immigration and Vote Choice, 2018
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Scholarly research shows that when women run for Congress and the state legislature, women win at the same rate as men.
Why So Few Women in Congress?
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Women set records in 2018• 476 U.S. House primary candidates
• 53 U.S. Senate primary candidates
• Won primaries at higher rates than men
• Partisan gap – Women were 43% of Democrats’ nominees
for U.S. House and Senate– Women were 22% of Republicans’ nominees
for the U.S. Senate and 13% for the House
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Record number of women were on the ballot in 2018
Source: The New York Times
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Non-incumbent Dem. women won at a higher rate than men
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First Term Democrats First Term Republicans
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Minnesota
• Senator Amy Klobuchar won with 60%• Senator Tina Smith won with 53%• Governor-elect Tim Walz won with 54%• AG-elect Keith Ellison won with 49%
• 18 statehouse seats flipped for DFL control of the Minnesota House– Minnesota suburbs are key
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Source: Pew Research Center 2018
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Implications for Governing• Divided Government in Washington
– Competing policy and political agendas• Gridlock • Minimal bipartisan cooperation
– Oversight and investigation of the Executive Branch
• Narrowly Divided Government in Minnesota– Incentives for cooperation and conflict
• Both parties positioning for 2020 elections