the 3 layers of logic
DESCRIPTION
When constructing cause and effect relationships the underlying assumptions are crucial, but usually only the assumptions that explain the existence of the effect from the cause are considered. In this presentation we separate assumptions in 3 layers: the existence, the timing and magnitude assumptions and show how they work.TRANSCRIPT
1© 2012TOCICO. All rights reserved.
TOCICO 2013 Conference
Three Layers of Logicor
Never say “I Know” when it comes to Thinking
Presented By: Humberto R. Baptista
Date: June 5th, 2013
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
TOCICO 2013 Conference
Contents
• Models of reality
• Cause and effect: is it sufficient?
• What else is there to effective models?
• Examples
• Summing up
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
MODELS OF REALITYWhy bother?
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What models are good for?
A model (theory) of reality is useful
If and only if:
It helps influencing reality significantly
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
CAUSE AND EFFECTNecessary but not sufficient
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Cause and Effect
• Models based on cause and effect are naturally aligned with being useful:
• Also in communicating, examining, perfecting and extending the model.
• (remember also the assumptions behind the causality)
• but…
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WHAT ELSE IS THERE?Expanding our models
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Yes, but
• Usually there is a causality assumption, something that explain WHY if we have the cause then we have the effect.
• What is not covered usually by causality assumptions is:
• Magnitude and Time
• In other words:
If there is C then… Assumption
E exists Why it exists?
(This much of )E exists Why this much of it?
E exists (by then) Why it takes this time?
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In other words
If C then (this much of) E (by this time)
2. Magnitude assumption
1. Causality assumption
3. Temporal assumption
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SOME EXAMPLESThe mechanics
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Stockouts and Sales
MagnitudeTiming
Causality
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Stockouts and Sales (again)
• More succinctly:
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
Interlude
• Why bother?
or:
• Should we do it everywhere?
Yes and no:
• Yes for the improvement of the models/skills
• No for focusing, i.e. do it between core cause/main injection and main/foremost desired effect. Or when studying how to accelerate/intensify something.
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Another example: sales twig
Why?Really?
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Why Lousy? Can’t we pick?Why Lousy? Can’t we pick?
What the distributor knows how to sell now?
What the distributor knows how to sell now?
In more detail:
Challenges:
Can’t we minimize the cost of trial? And time? What Parallels?
What substitutes he carries?
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Another example: a Retailer FRT (1/2)
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Another example: a Retailer FRT (2/2)
Which happens
first? Why?
How much? Why?
How much? Why?
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
Also: “GC Auditing” process
• How to understand deeply a surprise/mystery*? (*=an effect not predicted by the current model, either existence or magnitude)
• In some cases there are magnitude assumptions not checked/challenged or timing assumptions not checked/challenged.
• By constructing the Transition Tree with these assumptions explicitly stated it is possible to understand the mystery and influence reality even more.
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SUMMING UPImpacts and consequences
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Layers of Logic
• Good causality models are great.
• Can be made even better understanding also magnitude and timing assumptions behind them:
− Reinforces jump from CRT -> FRT and determines the sequence (transition) that maximizes return in the shortest time possible.
− Allows better challenging of causality in order to plan better injections and their impact
− Allow a deeper understanding of transitions in mysteries
− …
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
Thank You
• Comments, questions?
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
About Humberto
• Husband and father changing the world one person at a time
• Scientist seeking to apply science to people’s endeavors
• Hunter of hidden assumptions
• Teacher, student and colleague of students
• Believer of values over [email protected]