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The ABC and the Australian media sector: summary of RBB Economics report

• RBB Economics (RBB) is a firm specialising in competition economics.

• RBB was asked by the ABC to examine two overarching questions:

1. Do the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

2. What potential is there for the ABC’s activities to lead to benefits to the wider media industry?

• In assessing these questions, RBB applied a mix of data-driven and qualitative analyses.

WHAT DOES THE REPORT EXAMINE?

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• Current competitive neutrality (CN) policy only applies to ‘government business activities’.

• In the context of the ABC, this means it applies to specific business activities of the ABC Commercial division. These activities account for approximately 5% of the ABC’s total revenue.

• Nevertheless, the current Inquiry into the Competitive Neutrality of the National Broadcasters is contemplating how the broad principles of CN might apply to public broadcasters.

• As such, the report by RBB is designed to aid understanding of the impact of the ABC’s broader activities in the media sector. The analysis is an input into the ABC’s submission to the inquiry.

HOW IS IT RELEVANT TO COMPETITIVE NEUTRALITY? A key input to the ABC’s submission

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AWHAT ARE THE REPORT’S KEY FINDINGS?

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• At a high level, the RBB report made two key findings:

1. No evidence that the ABC’s activities crowd out the audiences of commercial media operators

2. Substantial evidence that the ABC’s activities are likely to have resulted in significant benefits to the wider media industry

AKEY FINDINGS IN DETAIL

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1. No evidence that the ABC’s activities crowd out the audiences of commercial media operators

• The ABC’s activities differ significantly from commercial broadcasters, often focusing on different genres.

• The ABC’s activities do not crowd out commercial media companies in terms of audiences or revenues. This result holds when looking at long-term initiatives (such as the launch of a 24-hr news channel, or the launch and upgrades of iview), as well as short-term events (such as the broadcast of the ABC’s most popular programs).

• Extensive data suggests that the recent pressure on traditional media business models is much more likely to be due to a significant shift in advertising revenues to online platforms, rather than ABC activities.

• A review of international studies provides no evidence to suggest that more funding for public broadcasters has any negative effect on commercial media operators. If anything, more public funding for broadcasting is associated with higher commercial revenues.

AKEY FINDINGS IN DETAIL

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2. Substantial evidence that the ABC’s activities are likely to have resulted in significant benefits to the wider media industry

• The ABC’s activities result in a direct benefit to industry through licensing, partnerships, and community and cadet investments.

• The ABC has made substantial investments in new initiatives, such as digital multi-channels and iview, that did not initially enjoy substantial consumer demand. These initiatives were later built on by commercial broadcasters.

• The ABC has undertaken early investments in a number of types of content and talent (including journalists, producers, and musicians) that have been followed by further success on other platforms.

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ASSESSING THE QUESTION OF CROWDING OUT

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• ‘Crowding out’ was defined as: a sustained diversion of substantial audiences that limits the opportunities for other operators to attract audiences and revenues, and compete effectively.

• If there is no evidence of crowding out, it would be difficult to suggest the ABC has a net competitive advantage over its commercial counterparts.

• RBB undertook four separate elements of analysis to form an overall view that the ABC’s activities do not crowd out the audiences or revenues of commercial media operators.

ASSESSING THE QUESTION OF CROWDING OUT RBB utilised multiple approaches and techniques

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Extent of ABC content differentiation

Effect of long and short-term ABC initiatives on commercial broadcasters’ audiences

Effect of ABC’s online activities on commercial media operators’ online advertising revenues

International evidence: cross-country analyses

Do the ABC’s activities crowd out

commercial operators?

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• As a starting point, RBB considered the relevant industry context, including:

o decline in time spent viewing major free-to-air channels, combined with growth in time spent viewing digital multi-channels, and substantial growth of video-on-demand services;

o decline in time spent listening to radio, combined with a number of innovations that have significantly increased the quantity and variety of radio and audio content available to Australians - including the introduction of digital radio, online radio streaming, online music streaming, and podcasting; and

o significant changes to patterns of news consumption, including increased consumption on digital platforms.

• These trends have resulted in audiences being increasingly fragmented across a growing number of channels, services and platforms, including in TV, radio and online.

RELEVANT INDUSTRY CONTEXT? Proliferation of new platforms, services, and increased fragmentation of audiences

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RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• As a starting point, RBB examined the differences between the ABC and commercial operators by looking at the amount of programming they devote to particular genres. As one example, the ABC’s television broadcasting often focuses on different genres and types of programming, as shown by comparing the hours of news and reality broadcast.

EXTENT OF ABC CONTENT DIFFERENTIATION? ABC activities are significantly differentiated from commercial broadcasters

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Figure 1: Proportion of prime-time broadcast minutes attributable to News and Current Affairs programs by major FTA channel, 2009 to 2017 (Source: RBB analysis of OzTAM data)

Figure 2: Proportion of prime-time broadcast minutes attributable to Reality Television programs by major FTA channel, 2009 to 2017 (Source: RBB analysis of OzTAM data)

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• RBB examined examples of substantial longer-term ABC activities to understand their impact — such as the launch of the 24-hour news channel in 2010, or the launch and later upgrades to the ABC’s iview service.

• The launch of ABC News 24 did not correlate with any significant change in the audiences of free-to-air networks, or even Sky News. In some cases, the average audience on other networks actually increased.

EFFECT OF LONG-TERM ABC INITIATIVES? No evidence that initiatives crowded out commercial operators

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Figure 3: Television audience by major FTA network and Sky News, 2009 to 2017 (Source: RBB analysis of Monthly OzTAM data)

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• To understand the impact on others in the market, RBB looked at examples such as Gruen, ABC TV’s most popular series, over a five year period including 2014 when the program was rested.

• The absence of regular broadcasts of the Gruen series in 2014 was not associated with any significant change in audiences for the commercial broadcasters, even within the same time slot. It was only associated with a relatively small change in audiences for the commercial broadcasters, when looking within the narrow subset of programs within the same genre.

EFFECT OF SHORT-TERM ABC INITIATIVES? No evidence that these initiatives crowded out commercial operators

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RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

EFFECT OF SHORT-TERM ABC INITIATIVES? No evidence that these initiatives crowded out commercial operators

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Figure 4: Effect of Gruen broadcasts on the prime-time audiences of programs of a similar genre broadcast on commercial FTA channels(Source: RBB analysis of Daily OzTAM data)

Figure 5: Audiences on commercial FTA channels broadcast during the same time slot as Gruen, 2012-16(Source: RBB analysis of Daily OzTAM data)

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• RBB examined the trends in revenue streams available to commercial broadcasters and news providers in the Australian media sector, namely the:

o growth in internet uptake and internet advertising revenue;

o growth in demand for video-on-demand content (particularly Netflix);

o decline in print advertising revenue, and flat advertising revenue for traditional free-to-air and subscription broadcasting; and

o substantial proliferation in online sources of news content, with over 20 different news sites accessed by Australians in June 2017.

• RBB also examined the fragmentation of audiences across providers within the online news market, and noted that:

o ABC online news has had a relatively small and fairly constant share of the online news audience since January 2016 (see figure on next slide); and

o other news sites have consistently reached similar or higher monthly unique audiences.

EFFECT OF ABC’S ONLINE ACTIVITIES? RBB examined extensive data sources

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RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

EFFECT OF ABC ONLINE ACTIVITIES? Fragmentation within online news sources

15Figure 6: Online news brands accessed by Australians in the past seven days, 2017 (Source: RBB analysis of data contained in the ACMA, Communications Report 2016-17)

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• On the basis of its analysis, RBB concluded that:

EFFECT OF ABC ONLINE ACTIVITIES? No evidence that ABC crowds out revenues for commercial counterparts

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‘The changes in the commercial broadcasters’ and news providers’ revenues seem more likely to be related to the overall trends affecting the sector, changes in internet usage and the shift towards

internet advertising rather than any specific activities of the ABC’.

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• RBB assessed the international evidence on associations between the scale and scope of public service media and outcomes for commercial media operators. o This included a particular focus on available studies that used data and econometric

analyses to inform their conclusions.

• The studies reviewed by RBB found, among other things: o positive correlations between funding for public service broadcasters (PSBs) and

commercial media operator revenues — suggesting the impact is opposite to crowding out;

o an association between countries that have well-funded PSBs investing in high-quality and diverse content and commercial sectors that generate high revenues; and

o no clear evidence that increases in BBC activity (in the UK) had any impact on commercial broadcasters’ viewer hours or revenues, or local newspapers’ readers or revenues.

• Based on RBB’s own analysis, against a set of 17 comparator countries, Australia shows lower per capita funding for PSBs, and higher commercial sector revenues per capita over the period 2009-16.

WHAT ABOUT INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE? No evidence of adverse effect of public broadcasters on commercial operators

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ASSESSING THE WIDER BENEFITS OF ABC ACTIVITIES

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• RBB considered a range of qualitative and case study information to assess the potential scope for the ABC’s activities to lead to benefits for the wider media industry.

• This included considering information about:

o partnerships with other organisations;

o areas of innovation built on by the commercial sector;

o the ABC’s role in investigative journalism; and

o early investments in content and talent development.

• RBB also undertook some quantitative analysis of songs that were initially promoted on triple j that were later played more extensively on commercial radio stations.

ASSESSING WIDER BENEFITS OF ABC ACTIVITIESRBB examined a range of information

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RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• RBB concluded there was substantial evidence that the ABC’s activities are likely to have resulted in significant benefits to the wider media sector, including through:

o ABC activities generating direct benefits to the industry through licensing, partnerships, and community and cadet investments;

o ABC investment in innovations, such as the launch of digital multi-channels, and a catch-up video-on-demand service (iview), both of which were followed by commercial operators;

o news stories that have led to positive outcomes through their impact on society more broadly, such as those relating to the Don Dale detention centre investigation; and

o the ABC making early investments in programs, such as Kath & Kim, the Paralympics and Good News Week, as well as in talent, such as Andrew Denton and Magda Szubanski; all have gone on to enjoy success and attract audiences and revenue on commercial networks.

ABC’S IMPACT ON WIDER MEDIA INDUSTRY?RBB found evidence of the ABC’s positive effect on the wider media sector

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• In addition to examining qualitative evidence of the role of triple j and double j over multiple decades, RBB assessed the music played on triple j each week compared to the top 500 most frequently played songs across all Australian radio stations from 2017 (week 4) to 2018 (week 21).

• RBB found that triple j largely plays different music to other radio stations but is also a launchpad for Australian music artists and other artists in Australia.

o The overlap in music played on triple j and the music played on other stations was relatively limited over this time period. For example, of the top 500 songs played on triple j, only 5% also appeared at least once in the top 500 songs played on all radio stations.

o Where there is an overlap in the music played on triple j and that played on other radio stations, these are often songs from local Australian artists, who triple j promotes and who are then picked up by other radio stations.

• To extend their analysis, RBB undertook case studies of songs initially promoted on triple j that went on to have wider commercial play and success in Australia.

o This included recently released songs by artists such as Amy Shark, Flight Facilities, Royal Blood, Meg Mac and the Presets.

ABC’S IMPACT ON AUSTRALIAN MUSIC?Supporting emerging talent over multiple decades

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RECAPPING KEY FINDINGS IN THE REPORT

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

RECAPPING THE REPORT’S KEY FINDINGSAn important input into the ABC’s response to the Inquiry

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1. No evidence that the ABC’s activities crowd out the audiences of commercial media operators

• The ABC’s activities differ significantly from commercial broadcasters.• The ABC’s activities do not crowd out commercial media companies in terms of audiences or revenues.• Recent pressure on traditional media business models is much more likely to be due to a significant

shift in advertising revenues to online platforms.• A review of international studies provides no evidence to suggest that more funding for public

broadcasters has any negative effect on commercial media operators.

2. Substantial evidence that the ABC’s activities are likely to have resulted in significant benefits to the wider media industry

• The ABC’s activities result in a direct benefit to industry through licensing, partnerships, and community and cadet investments.

• The ABC has made substantial investments in new initiatives, such as digital multi-channels and iview.• The ABC has undertaken early investments in a number of types of content and talent that have been

followed by further success on other platforms.

RBB examined two main questions.Does the ABC’s activities lead to a ‘crowding out’ of audiences available to other media operators?

• If you would like a full copy of the report, or have questions on its contents, please email: abccommunications@abc.net.au

NEXT STEPS

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