The Afghanistan war 2001-2010: the national interest and the human interestRichard TanterNautilus Institute at RMIThttp://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australiartanter@nautilus.org

Outline:Now a two-country war: Afghanistan, spilling over into PakistanOrigins and legal foundation of interventionMain players and strategy: government and UN-authorised coalition vs anti-government forcesPolitical economy of the Afghan war: aid, corruption and the narcostateCurrent state of the warPakistan and the neighbourhoodAustralian role and stated goals The national interest and the human interest The prospects of peace or victory

OriginsAfghanistan as a buffer state, and as a quasi nation-stateSoviet war (December 1979 - February 1989)Civil war I: Democratic Republic of Afghanistan vs. the Mujahideen (Feb 1989 - April 1992)Civil war II: Warlords vs Taliban (April 1992- late 1996)Taliban government (1996 - late 2001)UN-authorised and US-led intervention and establishment of Hamid Karzai headed government (late 2001 - )

Original legal foundation for international intervention: Security Council Resolution 1386 (2001), 20 December 2001Authorizes, as envisaged in the Bonn Agreement, the establishment of an International Security Assistance Force to assist the Afghan Interim Authority in the maintenance of security in Kabul and its surrounding areas ;Calls upon Member States to contribute personnel, equipment and other resources to the International Security Assistance Force, and invites those Member States to inform the leadership of the Force and the Secretary-General;Authorizes the Member States participating in the International Security Assistance Force to take all necessary measures to fulfil its mandate;

Main playersGovernment and coalition forcesIslamic Republic of AfghanistanUSNATO plusUNAnti-government forces:TalibanTribal/militia leaders/warlordsAl Qaeda

Afghanistan government and UN-authorised coalitionIslamic Republic of AfghanistanAfghan National Army (ANA) Afghan National Police (ANP)supporting militia/warlord groupsInternational Security Assistance Force (ISAF)NATO commandOperation Enduring Freedom - Afghanistan US Afghanistan combat operation structure for Global war on TerrorUnited Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)

Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Taliban

Pakistan origin during anti-Soviet war US and Pakistani intelligence role in creationPakistani military interest in maintaining Afghan unrestethnically- and class-inflected Sunni IslamismPashtun ethnic dominanceregional variationsnot a single united body, or equivalent to pre-invasion governmentMullah Omar, leader (at least in south) overlaps with Taliban in Pakistan but not identical

Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Militia leaders/warlordsregional/clan/tribal-based patron-client relationshipsfusion of feudal/pre-modern relations and modern social and political relationshipsHaqqani Network Jalauddin HaqqaniClaimed responsibility for Kabul bombing this weekHezb-e Islami GulbuddunGulbuddin Hekmatyar former PMDeeply opposed to foreign interventionwarlords on both sidesshifting loyalties and financescentral to current presidential elections

Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Al QaedaSaudi- Egyptian-originated Sunni Salafi international militia group November 2001 invasion immediately destroyed training camps, displaced AQ activists to Pakistan, reduced AQ capacity, increased tensions with hostskey leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri still at large, presumably in Pakistancore AQ international combat reach doubtful; limited Afghanistan combat roleeffective franchising of AQ through loose international networks continues differentiation and development of loosely related networksmega-terrorism threat continuesTaliban distancing themselves

Pashtunistan and the spill-over of the war into PakistanAfghanistan and Pakistan both ethnically mixedstructure/border legacies of colonial formation as nation-stateskey Pashtun ethnic group cross-border relations: hence Pashtunistanlargest single group in Afghanistan; southern and eastern concentrationsdominant in western border provinces of Pakistanemerging US perception of a cross-border war against Pashtunistan: hence AfPak War

Pakistan: the nuclear-armed Islamic acronym stateorigins (with Bangladesh till 1970) in the partition of British India as a home for Indian MuslimsPunjab, Afghan border states, Kashmir, Sind and Baluchistanuneven and unequal economic structureUS ally in Cold War and GWOTsuccession of military dictatorships and unstable civilian governments retaining strong military influenceperceived enduring hostility and military imbalance with India justified development of nuclear weapons

Pakistan: what comes after the destabilisation of wobbly equilibrium?acronym state barely held together: substantial economic problems exacerbated by conflict and climate changeenduring separatist insurgency in BaluchistanNorth-West Frontier Province and FATA (Federally-Administered Tribal Areas) = former colonial buffer regions; Pashtun cross-border linkssocially, politically and economically distincteffective long-running live-and let-live informal contract for regional autonomy broken by rise of Taliban in Pakistan and US intervention and demand for Pakistani central intervention

International community: the neighbourhoodCentral Asia: the former Soviet -stans, and the contest for hydrocarbons and regional influencesupply routes for the warIran: refugees, pipelines, Sunni-ShiaIndia: Pakistani terrorism, nuclear issues, and KashmirChina: Pakistan connections, Central Asia initiatives, warm-water ports, and fear of Islamist contagionBaluchistan separatism as a constant

International community: the alliesUS and NATO and NATO partnerslevels of commitment: numbers and arguments about rules of engagementshifting rationales for intervention - and progress:democracydrugsterrorismWhat are western interests? What are coalition goals? What counts as victory? the UN and the war: UNSC resolutions as global law?war weariness, coalition strains and alliance maintenance

International community and the management of conflict: pathscoalition strategic optionsthe question of timereturn of colonialism in UN/coalition form?possible foundations of Afghan peaceno ideological impedimentsshared social links and identityexperience of local truces and desire for negotiationscan the coalition be an honest broker?does dealing with the Taliban = return of international terrorist base the Pakistan conundrum

Presidential elections August 2009 - collapse of Karzai international supportincumbent Hamid Karzai won; against Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf GhaniUN and coalition recognition of massive fraud by KarzaiOpponents decided to not contest planned run-offdeal-making with warlords and controllers of block votesethnic/regional issuesUS and Australian interestsAfghanistan and political date of allied coalition governments: Netherlands, ?

Australia in AfghanistanAustralia in Afghanistan Briefing Book:http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/afghanistantroop levels, types, tasks, locationsduration of deployment, 2001,-2003, 2004-2010casualtiesGovernment rationales for deploymentHoward/early Rudd: democracy, drugs, terrorismLater Rudd: terrorism and training Afghan army/police

Australian forces, as of early 2010a National Command Element in Kabul; a Mentoring and Reconstruction Task Force based in Tarin Kowt, Oruzgan Province as part of an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Provincial Reconstruction Team;a Special Operations Task Group deployed to Oruzgan province as part of ISAF operations against insurgents; and an RAAF Control and Reporting Centre (CRC) deployed at Kandahar Air Field a Chinook helicopter detachment based at Kandahar in Helmand province in support of ISAF operations; an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Detachment of approximately 30 personnel Force Level Logistic Asset consisting of approximately 60 personnel at ISAF headquarters in Kandahar three Operational Mentor and Liaison teams (OMLTs) embedded with the Afghan National Army in Oruzgan

Useful sources on the webAnthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studieshttp://csis.org/expert/anthony-h-cordesmanInformed Comment, blog by Juan Cole, University of Michiganhttp://www.juancole.com/Nautilus Institute in Australiahttp://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australiaAustralia in Afghanistan Briefing Book:http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/afghanistanAustral Peace and Security Net: free twice weekly by email and on the webhttp://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australiathis talk [PPT]:http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/about-nautilus/staff/richard-tanter/talks/

Source: The Afghan-Pakistan War: Developments in NATO/ISAF and US ForcesAnthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, April 12, 2009Source: The Afghan-Pakistan War: Developments in NATO/ISAF and US ForcesAnthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, April 12, 2009Source: The Afghan-Pakistan War: A Status Report: 2009: A Brief Summary, Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, June 30, 2009

Source: The Afghan-Pakistan War: A Status Report: 2009: A Brief SummaryAnthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, June 30, 2009

Source: Source: The Afghan-Pakistan War: One War in Two Countries - Afghanistan vs. Pashtunistan, Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, April 2009