the american clean energy and security act breakthrough institute analysis of the waxman- markey...
TRANSCRIPT
The American Clean Energy and Security Act
Breakthrough Institute Analysis of the Waxman-Markey Climate and Energy Bill
According to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, ACES will…1. “Reduce carbon emissions from major U.S. sources by 17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.”
[Source:] http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090602/hr2454_reported_summary.pdf
2. “Require electric utilities to meet 20% of their electricity demand through renewable energy and energy efficiency by 2020.”
3. “Invest in clean energy technologies and energy efficiency…”
1. “Reduce carbon emissions from major U.S. sources by
17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050 compared to 2005
levels.”
2. “Require electric utilities to meet 20% of their electricity
demand through renewable energy and energy efficiency
by 2020.”
3. “Invest in clean energy technologies and energy
efficiency…”
What Will ACES Do?
Claim: ACES will “Reduce carbon
emissions from major U.S. sources by
17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050
compared to 2005 levels.”
Emissions Reductions
Analysis: ACES cap and trade would
legally permit continued growth in
U.S. emissions for up to two decades.
Emissions Reductions
[Source:] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_offsets_provisio.shtml
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20290
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Emissions in ACES Covered Sectors(Million Metric Tons CO2-e)
ACES Target
1990 baseline
2005 baseline
BAU
Full Offset Levels w/BankingEPA Offsets ProjectionCBO Offsets Projection
Emissions Legally Permitted by ACES Cap and Trade3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
5056
5781
6245* 6245^
2020 U.S. Emissions in Covered Sectors under ACES (million metric tons CO2-e)
Target Emissions
BAU 62452005 6089
1990 5189
7% < 1990 4826
25% < 1990 3892
ACES Target17% < 2005
With CBO Offset Levels
With EPA Offset Levels
With FullOffset Levels
* Additional permitsbanked for future: 4,218
^ Additional permitsbanked for future: 12,109
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
20222023
20242025
20262027
20282029
20300
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Cumulative U.S. Emissions in Covered Sectors Under ACES 2012-2030 - (billion tons CO2-e)
Business as Usual Emissions
ACES Target Emissions Path
CBO Offset Levels
EPA Offset Levels
Full Offset Levels
2027
2037
2018
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
49.5
54.5 55.4 55.4
Cumulative U.S. Emissions in Covered Sectors Under ACES 2012-2020 - (billion tons CO2-e)
Target Emissions
BAU 55.4
IPCC Target 43.7
ACES TargetEmissions Trajectory
CBO OffsetLevels
EPA Offset Levels
Full Offset Levels
Analysis: Strategic Reserve Pool can
raise cap by 10% in any year.
Triggered when prices rise too high.
Floods market with more allowances,
“refilled” with forestry offsets.
Emissions Reductions
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/the_climate_bills_catch_22_is.shtml
Emissions Reductions
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_vii.shtml
Conclusion:
ACES establishes a (modest) carbon
price and an emissions reduction
target. Does not provide “emissions
certainty” of a “hard cap.”
Conclusion:
ACES effectively
establishes a non-
binding “cap” on U.S.
emissions.
Claim: ACES will “Require electric
utilities meet 20% of their
electricity demand through
renewable energy and energy
efficiency by 2020.”
Renewable Electricity Standard
Renewable Electricity Standard
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_renewable_electr.shtml
Analysis: RES will have little to no
impact on U.S. renewable electricity
generation. (Breakthrough)
Analysis: RES will have “effectively
zero” impact on U.S. renewable
electricity generation. (Southern
Alliance for Clean Energy)
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_ix.shtml
Percent of U.S. electricity from renewables under ACES RES0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20%
17%
13%10%
U.S. Electricity Generation from Qualifying Renewable Electricity in 2020 under ACES RES – (% of Total U.S. Elec-
tricity)
BAU = 10%
Nominal Requirement
After Exemptions
With 5%Energy
Efficiency
With 8%Energy
Efficiency
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_xi.shtml
Renewable Electricity Standard
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_renewable_electr.shtml
“[A] national RES [at] such a low level …
could severely blunt the signal to the private
sector to invest billions of dollars and
expand production, manufacturing, and job
creation.”
– American Wind Energy Association
[W]e remain skeptical that current versions of either
the RES or a carbon cap and trade policy will lead to
significant solar deployment. … [A] "sweeping"
federal energy bill that fails to deploy a portfolio of
renewable energy options is an underwhelming
outcome, ill-equipped to help us meet the challenges
at hand.” -Vote Solar
Claim: ACES will “Invest in clean
energy technologies and energy
efficiency…”
Investments in Clean Energy
Investments in Clean Energy
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/how_do_climate_bills_clean_ene.shtml
Analysis: ACES investments in clean
energy R&D are a tiny fraction of
President Obama’s budget;
Clean energy investments overall are
insufficient to the challenge at hand.
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
ACES Clean Energy R&D Investments Compared to Expert Recommendations - (Billion $ per Year)
ACES R&D$0.5b to $1b
Obama Budget$15b
Breakthrough Institute
$15b
Energy Experts Letter$30b*
Brookings$20b to $30b
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
ACES Clean Energy R&D Investments Compared to Actual Federal R&D Investments - (Billion $ per Year)
ACES R&D$0.5b to $1b
2009 DOE R&D Budget$5.3b Stimulus Energy
R&D Investment$4.1*
NIH 2009 R&D Budget$30.5b
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
ACES Total Clean Energy Investments Compared to Expert Recommendations - (Billion $ per Year)
Obama Budget, R&D Only$15bACES
$6b-$12b
Apollo Project$50b
Breakthrough Institute$30b-$80b
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
ACES Total Clean Energy Investments Compared to Actual Federal Investments - (Billion $ per Year)
ACES$6b-$12b
Stimulus$33b*
New Energy Economy Old Dirty Energy Industries Overseas Offsets$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
ACES Annual Money Flow To...(Billion $ per Year)
$6-$12b
$30-$60b
$15-$30b
Carbon Price• Strategic Reserve Pool price ceiling:
-> $28/ton from 2012-15; 60% above 3 yr rolling
average after 2015
• Price floor:
-> $10/ton at outset, rises 5% each year
• EPA estimate:
-> $12-15 per ton 2015; $15-20 per ton in 2020
• CBO estimate:
-> $15 per ton 2011; $26 per ton 2019
[Chart] PointCarbon.com http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/historicprices/
EPA:$28 ceiling
$10 floor
EPA: $12-20
Carbon Price
CBO:$15-26
2005
2006
2007
2008
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,6391,653
1,666
1,619
EU-15 ETS Emissions 2005 – 2008(million metric tons CO2 per year)
2008 ETS Emissions Reductions?
“It confirms that the EU has a well functioning
trading system, with a robust cap, a clear price
signal and a liquid market, which is helping us to
cut emissions cost-effectively. This should
encourage other countries in their efforts to set up
comparable domestic cap-and-trade systems.”
- Stavros Dimas, European Environment
Commissioner
“The 3 percent [emissions] reduction [in 2008]
was partly due to businesses taking measures to
cut their emissions in response to the strong
carbon price that prevailed until the economic
downturn started.”
- Stavros Dimas, European Environment
Commissioner
The Counter-Factual: the US
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2008 Emissions Reductions (Annual Percent Reduction)
2.9%
2.5%
2.1%
Jesse JenkinsDirector of Energy and Climate PolicyBreakthrough [email protected] x465
Ted NordhausChairmanBreakthrough [email protected] x305