The Analogues Online Interface: hands-on using baseline case studies

Julian Ramirez-Villegas

Overall objective

• Plug descriptions of households in CCAFS benchmark sites into the analogues concept to get an idea of what the options of using analogues in the context of adaptation are

Why these sites?• Agro-ecological differences• Key socio-economic aspects (gender,

urbanisation, etc)• Large warming• Land use pressure• Contrasting cases for adaption• High likelihood to impact through CCAFS R&D• Institutions• Other criteria (accesibility, mitigation

potential, etc…)

The CCAFS benchmark site network

The three regions are very diverse

• 43 different ethnicities• 27 different types of animals• 86 different crops• Different land-use and intensification

patterns• Different technology levels• Different adaptive responses

WAF

EAF

BGD

Bihar

NPL Kristjanson et al. 2011 (draft)

Burkina Faso and Kenya?

Mali and Ethiopia?

Kanchanpur and Khulna?

Bihta and Piro?

Kaffrine, Senegal• Rainy season between mid-April and

October

Where are the best analogues (2030)?

Where are the best analogues (2030)?

Now we will

• Test the effect of different climate pattern• Test different directions• Forward• Backward• None

• Test the effect of lagging• Test the effect of the different variables and

their weights• Test the effect of different growing season