the arab spring five years later
TRANSCRIPT
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The Arab SpringFive Years Later
Hafez GhanemWorld Bank Vice President for MENA
Research Fellow, ERFNonresident Senior Fellow the Brookings Institution
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What caused “the Arab Spring” ?
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Average GDP Growth Rate for Arab Countries in Transition, 1991-2010
Country 1991-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-10
Egypt 2.4 5.8 3.9 5.9
Jordan 6.4 3.6 5.6 6.6
Morocco 3.1 2.3 4.7 4.6
Tunisia 4.6 5.2 4.5 4.4
Yemen 6.3 5.1 4.3 4.6
Source: Data from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Author’s Calculation
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Dissatisfaction and Unhappiness among Surveyed Arab Countries in Transition
Egypt Iraq Jordan Morocco Brazil India Indonesia Malaysia0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
DissatisfiedNot happy
Source: Data from World Value Survey (2005-09) Egypt 2009, Iraq 2006, Jordan 2007 Morocco 2007. Brazil 2006, India2006, Indonesia 2006, Malaysia 2006
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GDP Growth and People’s Satisfaction• Despite increase in GDP per capita, Egyptians felt worse off.
Gallup Inc., “Arithmetic of Revolution” and IMF World Economic Outlook for data on GDP per capita
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Poorest 20% Richest 20% Egypt Total GDP per Capita%
$ 5,508
$ 5,904
$ 6,114
$ 6,367
• Public Perceptions & GDP per Capita (PPP)
1
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Tunisians’ Reasons for Revolting against President Ben Ali
Weak economy
Corruption
Lack of p
olitica
l freedom
Want more Isl
amization
Don't know
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Source: Arab Barometer Survey, wave 3 (2012-2014)
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Most Excluded Groups
•Youth•Women•Smallholder Farmers
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Youth Unemployment Rate Country Youth Male Female
ArabEgypt 24.8 14.7 54.1Tunisia 29.4 27.8 32.7Algeria 21.5 18.7 37.6Syria 20.4 16.4 43.5Saudi Arabia 30.0 23.5 54.8Bahrain 5.0 2.5 11.6Qatar 1.2 0.5 7.0
ComparatorIndonesia 21.4 21.0 22.0Malaysia 11.4 11.0 12.0Brazil 17.8 13.8 23.1
Source: International Labor Organization(2010 and 2011)
%
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Female Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
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Female Labor Force Participation across Country 2010
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Aggregate Human Opportunity IndexEgypt by Region 2009Category Metropolitan Lower Egypt Upper Egypt Borders
Education 76 78 70 77
Housing 89 77 68 75
Early Childhood 77 69 65 55
Nutrition 77 77 75 65
Source: World Bank (2012)
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High rates of rural poverty (headcount index, percent) National
povertyRural poverty
Urban poverty
Egypt 25.2 32.5 15.3Mauritania 42.0 59.4 20.9Morocco 9.0 14.5 4.8Tunisia 15.5 22.6 9.0
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
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Four Priority Areas• Institutional Reforms to improve Implementation of Policies and Programs•Reforms of the Business Environment, especially for SMEs and Entrepreneurship•Rural Development and Support to Lagging Regions• Improving the quality of Education
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Summary of Planning Experience of East Asia, Japan, Indonesia, and MalaysiaCountry Summary of Planning Structure/ProcessJapan Stakeholder inclusion through Economic
Council (“Shingikai). Income-Doubling Plan as a guiding vision.
Indonesia Stakeholder inclusion through Development Planning Committee
Malaysia Prime Minister’s Office as a strong Implementation body. Strong Monitoring System
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Key Issues for Institutional Reform•Inclusiveness & Accountability•Introduce Inclusive Planning•Enhance Implementation Capacity•Monitoring and Evaluation•Reform Economic Institutions
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SMEs and job creation in the Arab world
Source : World Bank
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Policy Constraints to Small Business (% of Entrepreneurs Saying it is a Major Constraint) All
EntrepreneursYoung Entrepreneurs
Licensing & Registration
61.3 64.0
Labor Law 32.3 35.7Labor Inspection 44.9 49.2Tax Rates 68.6 66.7Customs Duties 5.8 5.8Tax Administration
65.0 63.0 Source: Ghanem (2013)
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Reform of Business Environment for SMEs and EntrepreneurshipChange Business Environment that favors few connected Large Farms • Tax Reform• Simplify official permits and licenses• Remove restrictions on international trade• Fight Corruption• Intervention beyond Credit Programs• Reform of Education System
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Primary School Net Enrollment Rate, 2002–11
Djibouti
Mauritania
Yemen
Palestine
JordanQatar
LebanonSyr
ian
Morocco
AlgeriaEgyp
t
Saudi A
r...Oman
Tunisia20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001/22010/11
Prim
ary
Net
Enr
ollm
ent R
atio
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Arab Learning Barometer: Percentage Not Meeting the Basic Learning Level
CountryPrimary Secondary
Numeracy Literacy Numeracy LiteracyBahrain 33 - 47 -Jordan - - 45 48.1Kuwait 70 - - -Lebanon - - 27 -Morocco 74 79 64 -Oman 54 53 61 -Palestine - - 48 -Qatar 45 40 46 63.4Saudi Arabia 45 35 53 -Syria - - 57 -Tunisia 65 - 39 50.1United Arab Emirates
36 36 27 31.0Source: Steer, Ghanem and Jalbout (2014)
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Education for Greater Inclusion
Quality of Education•Curricula and Teaching Method•Hold schools and teachers accountable for learning
outcomes
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Relative importance of Agriculture (percent)
Rural Population/Population
Employment in Agriculture/Employment
Agriculture GDP/GDP
Algeria 27 12 8Egypt 56 29 15Mauritania 47 38 14Morocco 43 40 15Libya 22 3 2Tunisia 34 16 9
Source: Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, Statistical Yearbook, 2012
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Relative Importance of Holdings of less than 5 Hectares
Share in Total Holdings
Share in Land Area
Algeria 55.4
11.3
Egypt 98.2
70.7
Morocco 69.8
23.9
Tunisia 53.5
10.9
Source: FAO, Agriculture Census Data
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Average Size of Family Farms
Algeria Egypt Morocco Tunisia
1.8
0.7
2.1 2.2
Source: FAO Agriculture Census Data
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Inclusive Agriculture and Rural Development • Improve Access to Market, Reduce Role of
Intermediaries• Improve Access to Financing and Investment
Resources• Improve Access to Land• Improve Research and Extension Services• Special Program for Women and Youth Farmers •Reform Producer Organizations and Cooperatives•Adjust Climate Change
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Role of the International Community
•Long Term Vision•Inclusive Growth and Social Justice•Peace and Stability in the MENA are Global Public Goods