The Arctic ClimateThe Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment:Impact Assessment:

Taking the Next StepsTaking the Next Steps

Michael MacCrackenMichael MacCracken

Chief Scientist for Climate Change ProgramsChief Scientist for Climate Change Programs

Climate Institute, Washington DC, andClimate Institute, Washington DC, and

Member, ACIA Synthesis TeamMember, ACIA Synthesis Team

•““Global Warming” will be experienced in distinct ways in each region.Global Warming” will be experienced in distinct ways in each region.

•We must look at impacts regionally to gain a sense of their influences We must look at impacts regionally to gain a sense of their influences

on both the region’s and the world’s environment and society.on both the region’s and the world’s environment and society.

•The Arctic is one of the most vulnerable regions!The Arctic is one of the most vulnerable regions!

With the climate changing so rapidly,

the people of the Arctic wanted and needed more information

about the changes and how best to

prepare and adapt

The Overview volume was published in November

2004, and is available

from Cambridge University Press and on the Web

at http://amap.no/workdocs/

The Foundation

volume with 18 technical chapters will be published

in early summer 2005,

and is currently

available on the Web at

http://www.acia.uaf.

edu/pages/

scientific.html

ACIA’s Ten Key FindingsACIA’s Ten Key Findings1. Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger

changes are projected;2. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide

implications; 3. Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing

wide-ranging impacts;4. Animal species' diversity, ranges, and distribution will

change; 5. Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing

exposure to storms;6. Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport

and access to resources;7. Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and

other infrastructure;8. Indigenous communities are facing major economic and

cultural impacts;9. Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people,

plants, and animals; and10. Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and

ecosystems.

The ACIA Report Is Just a BeginningThe ACIA Report Is Just a Beginning

The Assessment Reports of the IPCC make The Assessment Reports of the IPCC make clear that clear that global climate is changingglobal climate is changing and that and that changes will continue for at least a centurychanges will continue for at least a century

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) confirms that change is underway and provides confirms that change is underway and provides an initial an initial evaluation and projection of impactsevaluation and projection of impacts

An An on-going assessment processon-going assessment process (or dialogue) (or dialogue) will be essential to helping those in the Arctic to will be essential to helping those in the Arctic to adapt--the next steps need to be takenadapt--the next steps need to be taken

““Global Warming” is evident over both Global Warming” is evident over both the land and the oceansthe land and the oceans

The Briffa et al. Scaled Record is Mainly from NH The Briffa et al. Scaled Record is Mainly from NH Land Records, so Similar to Arctic Land RecordsLand Records, so Similar to Arctic Land Records

Warming in the Arctic is twice as large as for the world

(1900-1945) (1946-1965) (1966-2003)

Trends in Mean Temperature

Annual

Winter

Summer

Spring

Fall

(1966-2003)

Over the Past 30 Years, the Arctic Region Has

Experienced Major Changes in its Climate

Over the Past 30 Years, the Arctic Region Has

Experienced Major Changes in its Climate• Increases in surface and

oceanic temperatures,

• Large reductions in sea ice and glacier volume,

• Increases in river runoff and sea level,

• Overall increases in precipitation,

• The thawing of permafrost,

• Shifts in the ranges of plant and animal species, and

• Major impacts on the residents of the circumpolar Arctic region.

• Increases in surface and oceanic temperatures,

• Large reductions in sea ice and glacier volume,

• Increases in river runoff and sea level,

• Overall increases in precipitation,

• The thawing of permafrost,

• Shifts in the ranges of plant and animal species, and

• Major impacts on the residents of the circumpolar Arctic region.

<A2

--Global average from 1990

ACIA’s analysis focused

mostly on the relatively

conservative B2 emissions

scenario

B2 Emissions Scenario

Arctic

Global

For most analyses, results from the 5 ACIA Models were averaged

Average of Results from the 5 ACIA Models

Climatic and ecological changes in the Arctic will also affect the habitats ofbirds, fish, and marine mammals that breed and grow in the Arctic during summer

Sea ice retreat allows storm

waves to grow in size and

increase coastal damage

What ACIA Has Done is Only a BeginningWhat ACIA Has Done is Only a Beginning

The report is based on understanding through (roughly) The report is based on understanding through (roughly) 2003; more is being and will be learned.2003; more is being and will be learned.

The report’s findings tend to be general, with significant The report’s findings tend to be general, with significant uncertainties remaining and a number of questions not uncertainties remaining and a number of questions not addressed.addressed.

The Arctic region and its communities are changing, The Arctic region and its communities are changing, generating needs for new information.generating needs for new information.

The Arctic’s environmental and economic connections The Arctic’s environmental and economic connections to the rest of the world are changing, changing the to the rest of the world are changing, changing the intensity and types of stresses.intensity and types of stresses.

Assessment must be an on-going process, Assessment must be an on-going process, with continuing with continuing synergy between progress in research and exchange of synergy between progress in research and exchange of

information with decision-makers and stakeholders, using information with decision-makers and stakeholders, using periodic reports to forge region-wide synthesis.periodic reports to forge region-wide synthesis.

For this to happen, structures and For this to happen, structures and processes need to be created to make processes need to be created to make assessment into an on-going processassessment into an on-going process

The assessment process needs to encompass: The assessment process needs to encompass: Summarization of existing knowledge and understanding;Summarization of existing knowledge and understanding; Analysis of the region’s vulnerability, including its exposure and Analysis of the region’s vulnerability, including its exposure and

sensitivity to change and its adaptive capacity; andsensitivity to change and its adaptive capacity; and Development, application and evaluation of coping strategies Development, application and evaluation of coping strategies

that build resilience and reduce deleterious consequences.that build resilience and reduce deleterious consequences.

The assessment process needs to involve:The assessment process needs to involve: The region’s residents, Indigenous and non-indigenous;The region’s residents, Indigenous and non-indigenous; The region’s governmental and institutional leaders;The region’s governmental and institutional leaders; Those who interact with the region through commercial linkages, Those who interact with the region through commercial linkages,

including extraction and use of the region’s resources; andincluding extraction and use of the region’s resources; and The scientific and expert community that studies, analyzes, and The scientific and expert community that studies, analyzes, and

projects Arctic conditions.projects Arctic conditions.

Designing the science component of the Designing the science component of the on-going research and assessment on-going research and assessment

program has already begunprogram has already begun

Scientificknowledge & understanding

ACIA’sseventeentechnicalchapters,

each describing findings &

needed research

ACIA chapter 18 summarizes

research needs

Scientific program design,

including ICARP-II

International and regional research programs, including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.

With financial support, With financial support, structures are in place to structures are in place to

promote the needed promote the needed scientific advancesscientific advances

A complementary structure thatA complementary structure thatincludes the region’s peoples is neededincludes the region’s peoples is needed

Scientificknowledge & understanding

ACIA’sseventeentechnicalchapters,

each describing findings &

needed research

ACIA chapter 18 summarizes

research needs

Scientific program design,

including ICARP-II

International and regional research programs, including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.

Indigenous perspectives and resident

expertise

ACIA Overview'sten key findings

Stakeholder evaluation and needs

Individual, community, national, and internationalactivities aimed at facilitating regional adaptation

(and global mitigation)

ACIA’sseventeentechnicalchapters,

each describing findings &

needed research

The Set of Future Activities Must Include The Set of Future Activities Must Include Both Loops--Interacting TogetherBoth Loops--Interacting Together

Scientificknowledge & understanding

ACIA’sseventeentechnicalchapters,

each describing findings &

needed research

ACIA chapter 18 summarizes

research needs

Scientific program design,

including ICARP-II

International and regional research programs, including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.

Indigenous perspectives and resident

expertise

ACIA Overview'sten key findings

Stakeholder evaluation and needs

Individual, community, national, and internationalactivities aimed at facilitating regional adaptation

(and global mitigation)

ACIA’sseventeentechnicalchapters,

each describing findings &

needed research

The Scientific Loop Already Includes Many The Scientific Loop Already Includes Many Activities--Linking Them is the ChallengeActivities--Linking Them is the Challenge

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP)Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) Working Group on the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) Working Group on the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF)

and other Arctic Council working groupsand other Arctic Council working groups Research projects of the International Arctic Sciences Committee Research projects of the International Arctic Sciences Committee

(IASC)(IASC) International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP II)International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP II) International programs such as International Study of Arctic Change International programs such as International Study of Arctic Change

(ISAC)(ISAC) World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)

project and Climate Variations (CLIVAR) projectproject and Climate Variations (CLIVAR) project Time-focused efforts such as the International Polar Year (IPY)Time-focused efforts such as the International Polar Year (IPY) Global Environment Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)Global Environment Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Programmatic interests of the International Group of Funding Programmatic interests of the International Group of Funding

Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA)Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA) Regional and national programs (e.g., EU, NOAA, and many more)Regional and national programs (e.g., EU, NOAA, and many more)

Research activities can perhaps be Research activities can perhaps be grouped into 5 research themes:grouped into 5 research themes:

Projecting the Future of the ArcticProjecting the Future of the Arctic Using Past Trends, Present Using Past Trends, Present Observations, and Model SimulationsObservations, and Model Simulations

The Melting of the ArcticThe Melting of the Arctic: Ice, Snow, Water, Sea Level, and the : Ice, Snow, Water, Sea Level, and the Hydrologic CycleHydrologic Cycle

The Disruption of Arctic Marine LifeThe Disruption of Arctic Marine Life: Polar Bears, Seals, Birds, : Polar Bears, Seals, Birds, and Fisheriesand Fisheries

Ecosystem Disruption and ReformationEcosystem Disruption and Reformation: The Shifts and : The Shifts and Transformations of the Arctic’s Biota and Wildlife and Impacts Transformations of the Arctic’s Biota and Wildlife and Impacts on the Roles they Playon the Roles they Play

Adapting and Coping with Change in the ArcticAdapting and Coping with Change in the Arctic: Meeting the : Meeting the Information Needs of Communities, Organizations, Government Information Needs of Communities, Organizations, Government

and the Publicand the Public

The Stakeholder loop needs to be The Stakeholder loop needs to be recognized and re-enforcedrecognized and re-enforced

While ACIA started the dialogue process, much more is needed:While ACIA started the dialogue process, much more is needed: Many aspects of possible impacts were not sufficiently examined;Many aspects of possible impacts were not sufficiently examined; Multiple stress effects were not fully explored; andMultiple stress effects were not fully explored; and Findings tended to focus on averages over space and time, whereas Findings tended to focus on averages over space and time, whereas

stakeholders face their challenges in particular locations at stakeholders face their challenges in particular locations at particular times.particular times.

Local efforts need to build to national and regional effortsLocal efforts need to build to national and regional efforts Canada and other of the Arctic nations are already working on thisCanada and other of the Arctic nations are already working on this

Stakeholders will want further information, with more Stakeholders will want further information, with more details and greater confidence in the results, and they details and greater confidence in the results, and they must be an integral part of the assessment process, must be an integral part of the assessment process, asking questions, providing feedback, and helping asking questions, providing feedback, and helping

tailor the information they needtailor the information they need

A Sampling of Possible Questions Regarding A Sampling of Possible Questions Regarding Finding #4: Animal species' diversity, ranges, and Finding #4: Animal species' diversity, ranges, and

distribution will change.distribution will change.

• What is expected to happen to arctic wildlife over the next What is expected to happen to arctic wildlife over the next few decades and longer?few decades and longer?

• What will happen to the various migrating species?What will happen to the various migrating species?

• What options are there for minimizing adverse impacts on What options are there for minimizing adverse impacts on the most critical species?the most critical species?

• As the sea ice recedes, where will fish stocks relocate?As the sea ice recedes, where will fish stocks relocate?

• Will particular fish stocks increase or decrease, and how Will particular fish stocks increase or decrease, and how should they be managed for sustained yield in the face of should they be managed for sustained yield in the face of climate change?climate change?

• Are some species expected to go extinct? What measures Are some species expected to go extinct? What measures could help to slow this?could help to slow this?

• How will the impacts of climate change compare to the How will the impacts of climate change compare to the effects of other stresses?effects of other stresses?

Such questions in turn suggest a Such questions in turn suggest a number of research activities:number of research activities:

For example:For example:

• 4.1. Inventorying and Monitoring Arctic Species 4.1. Inventorying and Monitoring Arctic Species

• 4.2. Improve Understanding of Effects of Climate and Other 4.2. Improve Understanding of Effects of Climate and Other Stresses on SpeciesStresses on Species

• 4.3. Refine Models of Marine and Terrestrial Species4.3. Refine Models of Marine and Terrestrial Species

• 4.4. Evaluate and Expand the Set of Management Options 4.4. Evaluate and Expand the Set of Management Options for Terrestrial Speciesfor Terrestrial Species

• 4.5. Evaluate and Expand the Set of Management Options 4.5. Evaluate and Expand the Set of Management Options for Marine Species (migratory fisheries, subsistence for Marine Species (migratory fisheries, subsistence species, etc.)species, etc.)

Stakeholders will benefit from the outcomes of the Stakeholders will benefit from the outcomes of the research, and scientists will benefit because the research, and scientists will benefit because the

stakeholder needs provide justification and urgency for stakeholder needs provide justification and urgency for new and existing programmes and projectsnew and existing programmes and projects

We Need to Develop an Integrated, We Need to Develop an Integrated, On-going Arctic Assessment ProgramOn-going Arctic Assessment Program

Overall Goal:Overall Goal: To provide decision-makers and the public with To provide decision-makers and the public with

relevant, useful, risk-based information relevant, useful, risk-based information regarding Arctic climate change and associated regarding Arctic climate change and associated

environmental and socio-economic impactsenvironmental and socio-economic impacts for use in an increasing range of practical for use in an increasing range of practical

applications focused on sustaining and enhancing applications focused on sustaining and enhancing Arctic communities, peoples, and ecological Arctic communities, peoples, and ecological systems and services.systems and services.

Approach: Coordinate with the activities of IASC, Approach: Coordinate with the activities of IASC, the working groups of the Arctic Council, and the working groups of the Arctic Council, and

active research groups and programmesactive research groups and programmes

The Components of an Integrated The Components of an Integrated Arctic Assessment ProgramArctic Assessment Program

Need to Focus onNeed to Focus on New ApproachesNew Approaches for acquiring insights and applying for acquiring insights and applying

information in the Arctic;information in the Arctic;

New InformationNew Information about conditions, people, and about conditions, people, and

terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the Arctic;terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the Arctic;

New Knowledge and UnderstandingNew Knowledge and Understanding about processes about processes

and feedbacks affecting the Arctic; andand feedbacks affecting the Arctic; and

New CapabilitiesNew Capabilities for preparing for, adapting to, and for preparing for, adapting to, and

limiting change in the Arctic.limiting change in the Arctic.

Building this Integrated On-going Program is the Challenge We Have, Building this Integrated On-going Program is the Challenge We Have, and for which We Need to Build Supportand for which We Need to Build Support

CO2 Emissions

CO2 Stabilization: 100 to 300 Years

Temperature Stabilizations in few

centuries

Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion:

Centuries to millennia

Sea-level rise due to ice melting several millennia

CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea Level Continue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced

Time Taken toReach Equilibrium

10001000yryr

10001000yryr

100 100 yryr

100 100 yryr