the atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the earth (acre) initiative
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The Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative. Dr Rob Allan, ACRE Project Manager, Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom. QCCCE. What is ACRE?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Dr Rob Allan,ACRE Project Manager,
Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group,Met Office Hadley Centre,
Exeter, Devon,United Kingdom
The Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth
(ACRE) initiative
QCCCEQCCCE
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What is ACRE?ACRE is an international collaborative initiative led
by a consortium of:• the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence
(QCCCE) in Australia
• the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK
• the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado
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What will ACRE do?Seamlessly:
• Facilitate the recovery of historical instrumental surface terrestrial and marine global weather
observations • to underpin 4D weather reconstructions
(reanalyses) over the last 200-250 years • for climate applications and impacts needs
worldwide. It will produce:
• dynamically consistent, high resolution global historical 4D weather reconstructions at dynamically consistent, high resolution global historical 4D weather reconstructions at 22oo latitude by 2 latitude by 2oo longitude spatial resolution every 6 hours using state-of-the-art longitude spatial resolution every 6 hours using state-of-the-art scientific capabilities (in the future, 1/2scientific capabilities (in the future, 1/2oo spatial resolution) spatial resolution)
• a baseline of 4D weather reconstructions that can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for:a baseline of 4D weather reconstructions that can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for:
• regional to local climate applications, e.g., agricultural, environmental, societal, physical
• climate impacts, e.g., risk of high impact phenomena
• direct weather input into biophysical and production models
• an historical baseline of global weather that can be used to constrain global climate an historical baseline of global weather that can be used to constrain global climate models, putting them in a much stronger position to look into the future at possible models, putting them in a much stronger position to look into the future at possible implications and impacts of climate change.implications and impacts of climate change.
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Three surface input only historical Three surface input only historical reanalyses generating 6-hourly 4D reanalyses generating 6-hourly 4D
atmospheric weather variablesatmospheric weather variables
20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891-present (supported in US by NOAA & DoE)
Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications (SIRCA) (1840s-2011)
North Atlantic-European Region: 1750-present EcologicalPhenological
Health & DiseaseReinsurance
Climate MonitoringModel Validation
Environmental Assessments
Extremes, Impacts & Risks
Water resourcesAgricultural
ForestryEnergy
Marine operationsFisheries
Cultural landscapes & built heritage
QCCCEQCCCE
Climate research, Climate research, applications & impacts applications & impacts
community needs community needs & direct feed into& direct feed into
biophysical modelsbiophysical models
Global historical surface Global historical surface daily to sub-daily daily to sub-daily
weather observationsweather observations
and downscalingand downscaling
OLD
WEATHER
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Data needs for ACRE-facilitated Historical Reanalyses of 4D weather conditionsData needs for ACRE-facilitated Historical Reanalyses of 4D weather conditions
Digitised Global Surface Observational Coverage (%)
‘PRIOR TO WORLD WAR 2, AS MUCH SURFACE DATA HASN’T BEEN DIGITISED AS HAS BEEN’
POTENTIAL COVERAGE
World War 2World War 1
ERA & NCEP
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GCOS AOPC/OOPC GCOS AOPC/OOPC Surface Pressure Working Group Surface Pressure Working Group
International Surface Pressure Data International Surface Pressure Data BankBank
ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/pub/Public/gcompo/ISPDv2.2/ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/pub/Public/gcompo/ISPDv2.2/ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ispd/v2.2/Station_Map/ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ispd/v2.2/Station_Map/
NATIONALNATIONALMETEOROLOGICAMETEOROLOGICA
LL SERVICESSERVICES
(ECSN, ETCCDI, VACS, CMA,
MeteoFrance)
R R EE CC LL AA II MM
NCDCNCDChttp://http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmloa/ncdc.html
ATMOSPHERIC ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CIRCULATION
RECONSTRUCTIONSRECONSTRUCTIONSOVER THE EARTH OVER THE EARTH
ICOADSICOADShttp://icoads.noaa.gov/http://icoads.noaa.gov/
GLOBEGLOBE
CDMPCDMPhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/
climate/cdmp/climate/cdmp/
TERRESTRIAL DATATERRESTRIAL DATA MARINE DATAMARINE DATA
HISTORICAL CLIMATE QUALITY REANALYSESHISTORICAL CLIMATE QUALITY REANALYSES
DATA DATA RESCUERESCUE(MEDARE
MedCLIVAR IEDRO SIGN)
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Activities in recovering, imaging and digitising historical marine and terrestrial observations
• 2007/2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) – held in the British Library (imaging by British Library, digitised by CDMP in US) 900 of the 2,000 logs have instrumental data [200K images] http://www.oldweather.org/examples/east-india-company
• 2008/2009: Extended World War 1 period logbooks (1914-1923) - held in the UK National Archives (imaging by UK National Archives) 7,000 to 8,000 logs [300K+ images]
• 2007/2008: Printed/published logbooks of late 19th- early 20th Century Antarctic expeditions plus ships of exploration – online plus held in the Met Office Library & Archives (imaging & digitisation) http://www.oldweather.org/examples/TerraNova
• 2008: Inventory of historical Chinese and South China Sea instrumental weather observations - an initiative in conjunction with Professor Robert Bickers, Department of Historical Studies, Bristol University and Chinese Maritime Customs Project, to produce an inventory of all the sources of historical Chinese and South China Sea region terrestrial and marine daily to sub-daily meteorological data.
• 2008: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books (1834-1909) – held at the UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) (inventory of holdings in the archives of the UKHO) about 6,000 remarks books
• 2009/2010: CoRRal: UK Colonial registers and Royal Naval Logbooks – held at The National Archives (imaging and digitising logbooks of ships on voyages of discovery 1700-1850: ADM-55, and attached to the Hydrographic Survey 1830-1850) plus held at The National Archives and the Met Office Archives (UK colonial meteorological registers, journals and gazettes 1840-present). CoRRal: a Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) Digitisation Programme: Enriching Digital Resources funded project.
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Global Historical Reanalyses ProductsEach of the ACRE-facilitated global historical reanalyses will produce a 56** member
ensemble of some 68 4D weather variables every 6 hours at 2° latitude x 2° longitude spatial resolution over the entire globe. The ensemble mean is taken as the best analysis.
Some major 4D weather variables produced by the reanalyses
Geopotential Height
Temperatureu windv wind
Pressure vertical velocitySpecific humidityRelative humidity
At 19 Levels: (1000 hPa–100 hPa every 50 hpa)
Others at specific levels (eg, sigma) or over the depth of the atmospheric column include:Surface pressure, Tropopause height, Precipitable water, Convective Avail. Pot. Energy, Convective
inhibition, Potential temp. Total ozone, Cloud water, Sensible heat flux, Latent heat flux, Volumetric soil moisture, Accum. Snow, Downward long wave flux, Upward long wave flux, Upward short wave flux,
Downward short wave flux, Precipitation rate, Convective precip. Rate, Ground heat flux, Land cover, Ice concentration, Water runoff, Potential evaporation rate, Planetary boundary layer height, Albedo, Total
cloud cover, Zonal momentum flux, Meridional momentum flux.
** started in November of year before, 56 random initial conditions produced from integrations of the T62 28 sigma level model forced by SSTs
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NOAA ESRL/CIRESMOHC, CRU, SU, ECMWF, POL
KNMI
Météo-France
UBERN, ETHZ
QCCCE
SIGN
BALTEXBALTEXSENABARSENABAR
Med - CLIVAR & MEDAREMed - CLIVAR & MEDARE
ECSNECSN
US Colonial US Colonial Era Data StudyEra Data Study
Chilean ChapterChilean Chapter
Southeastern Australia ChapterSoutheastern Australia Chapter
Chinese Maritime Chinese Maritime Customs ProjectCustoms Project
International Projects, Sources & Repositories linked to ACRE
IEDRO ICOADS ISPD WMO DARE RECLAIM GLOBE GLOSS ETCCDI VACS ICHM ERA-CLIM EURO4M
USQ
NationalNationalMarineMarineSanctuariesSanctuaries
(Blue shadings are for potential projects submitted to funding bodies)
UCT
ECED/ECED/NiCHENiCHE
CDMP NCDC
ICCSIR
CHANGECHANGE
EuroCryoClimEuroCryoClim
BoM NCC, CMARNIWA
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ACRE-linked Climate Applications and Impacts Projects
Extremes, climate modes and reanalysis-based approaches to agricultural resilience: Funder: Land & Water Australia, Managing Climate Variability Innovation Call project, commenced in September 2008. FUNDING TO ACRE
Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for South-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data: Funder: Proposal for an Australian Research Council Linkage Project 2009
SENABAR "Storminess since 1800 as interpreted from European and North Atlantic BARometric pressure variability": Funder: To be submitted as a proposal to the 1 December 2008 Standard Grant round of UK NERC (Natural Environment Research Council)
ERA-CLIM: Development of a European Reanalysis Capability for Global Climate Monitoring: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation Theme 9 “Space”
EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation Theme 9 “Space”
CHANGE for Africa - Climate Helps Africans Negotiate Greater Efficiencies: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation, Area 6.1.1.5: Climate change natural and socio-economic impacts
Chilean Chapter of ACRE: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 - Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation.
Devon Community Climate Change Local Histories Project (CCHP): Funder: UK Heritage Lottery Fund, commenced in September 2008. NO FUNDING TO ACRE
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New partners in ACREEarly Canada Environmental Data/Network in Canadian History & Environment (ECED/NiCHE) (http://niche.uwo.ca/early-canada-environmental-data.html): NiCHE brings together historians, geographers, and other researchers who study nature and humans in Canada's past. It offers a forum for the field, support collaboration among scholars, and ensure that this research is shared with policymakers, scientists, and the Canadian public. ECED is a component of NiCHE, and its aims are:
• to assemble digital resources that facilitate the study of historical data on Canadian environments
• to design tools and explore different methods to work with such data
• to bring together existing datasets and to create new databases.
This partnership will aid ACRE’s needs to link into ongoing Canadian historical data and research activities plus their outreach and outputs to community and user needs.
The Sea Around Us Project (SAUP) (http://www.seaaroundus.org/): ACRE is exploring a potential collaboration with this initiative. SAUP is investigating the impact of fisheries on the world's marine ecosystems. This is achieved by using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map global fisheries catches from 1950 to the present, under explicit consideration of major critical habitats of fish, marine invertebrates, marine mammals and other components of marine biodiversity. The data presented, which are freely available, are meant to support studies of global fisheries trends and the development of sustainable, ecosystem-based fisheries policies.
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PROJECTED/POTENTIAL TIMELINEMid-2009: The 20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891 to present Version 1: 1908-1958: Available – we have a terabyte disc of ensemble meansVersion 2: 1891-2008 available Mid-2009
Mid-2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) Imaged & Digitised
2009-2010: Final version of HadISST2
2010-2011: Extended World War 1 period logbooks (1914-1923) Imaged & Digitised
2009-2011: Early to mid-19th Century Reanalysis (with DoE and NOAA support)Version 3: mid-19th – 21st century
would need all data by August 2010improved version of NCEP model at higher resolution
=> hurricanes, high impact phenomena?potentially available in 2012
201?: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books (1834-1909) Imaging & Digitisation
201?: North Atlantic-European Region mid18th-early 19th Century Reanalysis: 1750/1800 to present
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THE FUTURE POTENTIAL Historical surface observations input-only reanalysis of the 1938 Atlantic ‘Long Island Express’ Hurricane: using additional HURDAT data and NCEP
NWP T254 (1/2 degree spatial resolution) model
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ACRE Project ManagerDr Rob Allan
Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group,
Met Office Hadley Centre
E-mail: [email protected]
Alternative E-mail: [email protected]
ACRE WWW Site: http://www.met-acre.org/
Old Weather WWW Site: http://www.oldweather.org/
Phone: +44 (0)1392 886904
Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
Address: Met Office
FitzRoy Road
Exeter EX1 3PB
U.K.