the automotive trends call for transformative technology
TRANSCRIPT
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The Automotive Trends Call for Transformative Technology
(or why the status quo won’t remain so)
by Gary S. VasilashEditorial Director
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Sacrifice
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Seduction
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Welcome to the world of Environmental Vehicles 2.0
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It’s not just about looking goodAlison Brie & Chevy Volt
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But manufacturing, too
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Well, the former is more intriguing
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This is serious stuffSonata Hybrid Transmission
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You need this
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To get this
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To make this
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Which is done here:Valmet factory in Finland
(also builds Porsche Boxster)
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Fisker Karma
• 0 to 60 mph—5.9 seconds
• 125 mph
• 67 mpg
• Two 201.5-hp electric traction motors
• 2.0-liter, 260-hp GM Ecotec engine (generator)
• 50 miles EV; total 300
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Fisker, incidentally, got a $528.7-million loan from the Department
of Energy
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So, how relevant are the alternatives?
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Cadillac
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Toyota Prius
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Cadillac sales through April:53,639 —Autodata Corp.
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Prius sales through April:55,256 –Autodata Corp.
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Lutz on EVs
“How could we, the world’s largest and, arguably, the most technologically capable car company in the world, declare the lithium-ion battery not feasible for motor vehicles when some outfit run by a couple of dot-com billionaires was making it work?”
Car Guys vs. Bean Counters
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Lutz was talking Tesla
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Tesla makes this
The Lotus Elise-based Roadster
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And it will be making this
Tesla Model S
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Tesla FactoryFremont, California
“Everything from body panel stamping to final quality testing will take place at the Tesla Factory.”--Gilbert Passin, VP, ManufacturingTesla photo
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May 20, 2010
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Tesla & Toyota
• Tesla buys the NUMMI plant in Fremont, CA—former GM/TMC jv
• Toyota invests $50-million
• Companies sign cooperative agreement
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Akio Toyoda on Tesla
“I’ve felt an infinite possibility about Tesla’s
technology and its dedication to monozukuri.”
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Monozukuri?
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Skills & spirit for making things.
Yes, even dot-com billionaires impressed him with their ability
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BTW: Fisker bought the GM Wilmington Assembly plant ($18 m) to produce the Project NINA
($39,900 after tax credits)
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Isn’t it curious that two non-trad builders own major plants?
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So What Did Lutz (GM) Do?This: The Volt
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A tech tour de force
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But Nissan has brought the LEAF
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The LEAF: 2010100-mile range
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Parent company Renault is serious, too
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Renault-Nissan Alliance. . .
• . . .and the People’s Government of Wuhan
• The Irish Government, the ESB, the nation’s largest electricity utility, and. . .
• Madrid City Council and. . .
• The municipality of Sao Paulo and. . .
• Milton Keynes Council and. . .
• . . .and All Japan Ryokan Association
All working to deploy EVs and installing EV infrastructure (a.k.a., charging stations)
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Because movie starts love EVs, here’s the Renault Fluence Z.E @ Cannes
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And Ford is bringing this by 2013—Focus Electric
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VW Milano Taxi Study
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“Electric mobility is the task of the century for the automotive industry. . . . Manufacturers,
suppliers, energy providers, scientists, and politicians—everyone must step up to the plate
here.”--Martin Winterkorn, VW Group Chairman, 5/6/11
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So it is about the diffusion of tech.And some people are concerned.
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Some people are always concerned.
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“If I asked people what they wanted, they’d say a better horse.”—Henry Ford
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Good thing he didn’t listen.
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Still, the early automobile had issues.
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Consider circa 1900
• No gas stations• No paved roads• No traffic signs• No traffic signals• No AAA• No headlights• No roofs• No self-starters• No lease programs
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Deloitte Consulting’s 6 EV barriers(2010)
1. Familiarity
2. Brand
3. Range
4. Charging
5. Infrastructure
6. Price & ownership cost
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Deloitte Consulting’s 6 EV barriersApplied to early cars
1. Familiarity—Who owned a car?
2. Brand—Ford?
3. Range—No gas gauge until 1922
4. Charging—Not many pumps
5. Infrastructure—Not many roads
6. Price & ownership cost--$850 for ‘08
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So as we move to this, we’ve got to keep things in perspective
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China drives past US as world's No.1 auto market
BEIJING, April 21, 2010 (Reuters) - China's auto market, which overtook the United
States as the world's largest last year thanks to a raft of policy incentives, has been a major bright spot amid a global
industry downturn.
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On the one hand, this means plenty of opportunity for vehicle manufacturers in
China—nice, for them, but not necessarily helpful here
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On the other hand, this means that when the Chinese—who have significant money because
of things like this:
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--start buying more things like this
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How long will it take to get to this?
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“The U.S. has 750 cars for every 1,000 people. China. . .has 4 cars for every 1,000 people. If China gets to only half the ownership rate of the U.S., it means an additional 400 million cars on the road. . .like adding another two U.S.’s worth of cars to the world.”—Christopher Steiner
$20 Per Gallon (2009)
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And let’s not forget about this:
CAFE
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CAFE for Cars
2008: 30.3 mpg
2016: 37.8 mpg
↑ 25%
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CAFE for Trucks
2008: 22.2 mpg
2016: 28.8 mpg
↑ 30%
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U.S. May Require Up to 7% Annual Fuel-Efficiency Boost for CarsBy Angela Greiling Keane - May 11, 2011
The U.S. may require annual fuel- efficiency improvements of 2 percent to 7 percent from 2017 to 2025 for cars and light trucks, according to the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration. The agency said in a May 10 Federal Register notice it will evaluate the costs and
environmental effects of boosting fuel efficiency in the proposed rule it’s scheduled to publish in September.
Automakers must have a fleet-wide average of 34.1 miles per gallon, according to the existing fuel-economy rule that applies through model-year 2016 vehicles. NHTSA is
developing the next rule with the Environmental Protection Agency and California’s Air Resources Board.
The U.S. said last year automakers selling cars in the U.S. may be required to almost double fuel economy to as much as 62 miles per gallon by 2025 models with annual
fuel-economy increases of as much as 6 percent.
®2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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“Over the next few months, regulators are scheduled to set the next round of U.S. fuel economy standards for
manufacturers. Among the proposals under consideration is one that would lift average fuel
economy under the law to as much as 62 mpg by 2025.”
Peter Whorisky, The Washington Post, “Obama administration set to raise fuel efficiency standards, but by how much?”, May 12, 2011
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And there is this
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According to Energy Information Administration, during the week of
5/9/2011regular gas cost $1.06/gallon more
than a year earlier
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And let’s not forget about this
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So is it all smalls, hybrids, or EVs?
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Nope.
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These are not going away anytime soon
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But they need to get more efficient.(Remember those CAFE numbers?)
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So here’s how to build a better engine: what you get & what it costs (data from John German, then with American Honda, now with International
Council on Clean Transportation)
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Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI)
cost: $233-606 benefit: 10-12%
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Camless valve operationcost: $336-673 benefit: 2.5% Valeo
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Lean Burn Direct Injectioncost: $500-750 benefit: 9-16% GM
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Piston w/oil cooling jet for DI
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Turbochargingcost: $120-690 benefit: 5-7% Honeywell
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Cylinder deactivationcost: $203-229 benefit: 4.5-6% Honda
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Start-stop systemsCost: $563-600 Benefit: 7.5% GM
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Multivalve DOHC with variable valve timing and lift
cost (6 cyl): $1,262 benefit: 1-4%
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Electric Power Steeringcost: $118-197 benefit: 1.5-2% Nexteer
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Continuously variable transmissioncost: $100-139 benefit: 3-5% Nissan
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Dual-clutch ATcost: $141 benefit: 4.5-7.5%
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H.E. Alternator & electrificationcost: $124-166 benefit: 1-2% Denso
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Bottom line
Internal combustion engines have to get much better. It will take new
tech. And new manufacturing processes.
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Think smaller. Simpler. More efficient. More elegant.
Cases in point:The changes to the Prius hybrid
system.
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Changes: 2nd & 3rd gen Prius inverters
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Changes: 2nd & 3rd gen Prius MG1
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Changes: 2nd & 3rd gen MG2
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Changes: 2nd & 3rd gen Prius transaxles
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Changes: 2nd & 3rd Gen Prius power split device
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No auto company is getting here without all that
CAFE for cars:
2008: 30.3 mpg
2016: 37.8 mpg
↑ 25%
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And there is the Hydrogen future
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Toyota, Air Products, Shell, DOE, and South Coast Air Quality Mgmt. District open 1st pipeline-fed station in Torrance, CA May 10, 2011
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“We plan to bring a fuel cell vehicle to market in 2015, or sooner.”
Chris Hostetter, group vp, Product & Strategic Planning,Toyota Motor Sales
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Honda FCX Clarity driver likes it, too
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Shai Agassi: Making a Better Place
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Better Place has signed partnerships with:
• Israel
• Denmark
• Australia
• California
• Hawaii
• Ontario, Canada
• Japan
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“Importantly, the new DNA transforms the automobile from simply a means to get from point A to point B to a node in a
global network that integrates the flows of vehicle, information, and power.”
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Shanghai World Expo Rolling in GM ENVI vehicles
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GM & Segway: 2030
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Bottom Line: How many people thought this was feasible?
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So maybe. . .
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Seduction
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Jaguar C-X75
• 205 mph
• 0 to 62 mph in 3.4 seconds
• Four 145-kW electric motors at each wheel
• Two 80K rpm micro turbines
• 560-mile range
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Jaguar C-X75
• “There is a clear business case for this exclusive halo model. No other vehicle will better signify Jaguar’s renewed confidence and excellence in technological innovation than this.” --Adrian Hallmark, Jaguar Brand Director
• 250 to be produced
• Price starts at £700,000
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Remember: Back in the day (1912) this was exotic, too
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But I’m guessing rather than the Jag, most of us will get something like this
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Thanks