the availability of livable wage jobs in new hampshire of the income...2 new hampshire employment...

The Availability of Livable Wage Jobs in

New Hampshire

Project Directors:

UNH Office of Economic Initiatives North Country Council, Inc.

NH Small Business Development Center USDA Rural Development

November, 2001

The Availability of Livable Wage Jobs in New Hampshire

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents ................................................... i

List of Tables ...................................................... i

Foreword ........................................................... ii

Acknowledgements ............................................... Page 1

Findings of Study .............................................. Page 1

Recap of New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage Study.. Page 1

Estimates of the Availability of Livable Wage Jobs...........

What Kinds of Jobs Don’t Pay a Livable Wage?................. Page 4

How Do Workers Manage Without a Livable Wage?................ Page 6

Alternative Views of Employment Opportunities Around New Hampshire

Page 7

Looking to the Future........................................ Page 9

Appendix ..................................................... Page A-1

Definition of North Country................................ Page A-2

Methodology................................................ Page A-3

References ................................................ Page A-4

Estimated Livable Wage for New Hampshire, 1999............... Page 2 LIST OF TABLES Estimated Percentage of Jobs Paying a Livable Wage, 1999.... Page 3

Jobs with Median Wage Below Livable Wage..................... Page 4

Average Hourly Wages, 1999.................................. Page 7

Local Area Unemployment Rates................................ Page 8

Subset of Forty Fastest Growing Occupations, 1998-2008,

with New Hampshire Median Wage Below Livable Wage ........ Page 9

Subset of Forty Fastest Growing Occupations, 1998-2008,

with New Hampshire Median Wage Above Livable Wage ....... Page 10

New Hampshire Unemployment Rate, History and Forecast....... Page 11

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FOREWORD

We are pleased to present The Availability of Livable Wage Jobs in

New Hampshire, a follow-up study to New Hampshire Basic Needs and a

Livable Wage which was published in June 2000. The first report

estimated the wage an individual needs to earn to pay for the

necessities of life while the present study presents findings on the

percentage of jobs paying a ‘‘livable wage.’’ Both studies break out the

findings for various family types and different geographic locations in

New Hampshire.

Our goal is to present objective, factual data concerning the

present composition of employment and wages in New Hampshire. We hope

those concerned about economic development, day care, affordable

housing, and health insurance will use this information to increase

economic opportunity and improve the standard of living in the state.

We have emphasized the contrast in findings for the North Country as

opposed to southern New Hampshire so that readers can understand the

relative strengths and needs of the two areas. The US Economic

Development Administration, which helped fund these studies, has

designated the North Country in New Hampshire as a distressed area, and

these two studies have helped quantify and define gaps between the north

and south.

This study goes to press at a turning point for the national

economy and particularly for the Berlin Labor Market Area. A few months

ago, economic forecasters were worried about a slowing national economy,

but advised that a recession could still be avoided. Now, those same

forecasters say that the U.S. economy is already in recession. Mill

closings in Berlin and Gorham in the late summer raised Berlin’s

unemployment rate from 3.5 percent in June to 17.1 percent in September.

Two key tables in the report have been updated with information just

made available this month. It is too soon to tell how long the

recession will last, or precisely how it will impact New Hampshire.

Similarly, it is premature to predict the effectiveness of the current

efforts to ameliorate the effects of the paper mill closings in the

North Country.

We trust that you will find the study’s findings useful. If you

would like help in interpreting the findings please do not hesitate to

call one of us. You will find contact information listed on the inside

back cover.

Janice B. Kitchen, Director, UNH Office of Economic Initiatives

Jeffrey R. Hayes, Economic Development Director, North Country

Council, Inc.

Mark D. Koprowski, Community and Business Outreach Specialist, US Department of Agriculture Rural Development

Elizabeth A. Ward, Research Director, NH Small Business Development

Center

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FUNDERS Anne Slade-Frey Charitable Trust NH Community Development

Finance Authority NH Small Business Development Center North Country Council, Inc. Northern NH Foundation UNH Office of Economic Initiatives US Department of Agriculture Rural Development US Economic Development Administration

RESEARCHERS Daphne A. Kenyon, President, The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy Bethany R. Peragallo, Intern, The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy Marina Skaperdas, Consultant, The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy ADMINISTRATOR AND EDITOR Lisa Jo Steiner, The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy REVIEWERS

Martin J. Capodice, Research Analyst, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, New Hampshire Employment Security Tom Deans, President, Northern NH Foundation Douglas E. Hall, Executive Director, New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Douglas R. Hoffer, Research Director, Peace & Justice Center Christopher St. John, Executive Director, Maine Center for Economic Policy

A livable wage

can be defined as income sufficient to meet a household’s basic needs.

Recap of New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage Study A previous report entitled New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage estimated what persons in various family types in New Hampshire would have to earn in order to pay for the necessities of life and be self-sufficient. The family types examined included:

• Two parents and two children, with both parents working

• Two parents and two children, with one parent working

• Two parents and one child, with both parents working

• Two parents and one child, with one parent working

• Single person with two children • Single person with one child • Single person.

When both parents are working, the livable wage is the estimated hourly wage that each adult would have to earn in order for the family to be self-sufficient. Children were assumed to be young (a single child was assumed to be four years old; two children were assumed to be four and six years) and requiring child care if there is not a non-working parent at home. That report defined basic needs to include:

• Food, but not restaurant meals • Rent, and utilities such as heat,

lights, and water, but not cable TV service

• Basic telephone service • Clothing and household expenses • Transportation • Child care, assuming that children are

between 4 and 6 years • Health care • A small allowance for personal expenses

(3% of a household’s budget) • Savings (5% of a household’s budget).

The report found that this livable wage varied by both location and family type. Specifically, as the table on the next page

FINDINGS OF STUDY

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shows, the cost of living in the North Country was between 6

to 11 percent less expensive than the state average.1 Further, a single person with two pre-school children would have to earn over twice as much as a single person with no children in order to meet the household’s basic needs.

Estimated Livable Wage for New Hampshire, 1999 North Country Southern NH NH Average North Country as % of NH Average Family Unit (Hourly Wage) Two parents & two children $10.69 $11.48 $11.42 94 (both parents working) Two parents & two children $15.28 $16.86 $16.74 91 (one parent working) Two parents & one child $9.01 $9.84 $9.77 92 (both parents working) Two parents & one child $13.92 $15.58 $15.45 90 (one parent working) Single person & two children $17.37 $19.06 $18.92 92 Single person & one child $14.12 $15.86 $15.72 90 Single person $8.04 $9.09 $9.01 89

Notes: When both parents are working, the hourly wage is the wage for each adult. Children are assumed to be young (a single child is assumed to be 4 years; two children are assumed to be 4 and 6 years) and requiring child care if there is not a non-working parent at home. Source: New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage, June 2000.

1 The North Country includes Coos County and the top half of Carroll and Grafton counties. See the Appendix for a listing of the towns in the North Country. We used the same definition of North Country as the 1999 North Country Business Survey.

The Availability of Livable Wage Jobs in New Hampshire The Availability of Livable Wage Jobs in New Hampshire

Estimates of the Availability of Livable Wage Jobs

A logical next question concerns the availability of livable wage jobs. Can persons of different household types find livable wage jobs? How does the availability of livable wage jobs differ across the state? To answer this question, we used data made available from the Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau of New Hampshire Employment Security. The results follow, and the methodology is described in the Appendix to this report. The table presenting the estimated percentage of jobs paying a livable wage is laid out with the different household types in the columns and areas of state in the rows. The data were available by Labor Market Area (LMA), so are reported according to this division, rather than by county or some other breakdown. It is useful to know that a LMA is an ‘‘economically integrated region within which workers may readily change jobs without changing their place of residence.’’2 The state is divided into 18 LMAs, but in the basic data set obtained, five northern New Hampshire LMAs were combined into one area labeled ‘‘Northern New Hampshire.’’ These LMAs are Berlin, Colebrook, Conway, Lancaster and Littleton.3

As the table indicates, the proportion of livable wages in the state as a whole and by area depends enormously upon the family type one is concerned with. Fifty-eight percent of the jobs in the state pay a livable wage for a single person (at least $9.01 per hour in 1999), but only 13 percent of the state’s jobs pay a livable wage for a single person with two young children (at least $18.92 per hour in 1999). When examined by sub- area of the state, the variation is even greater. For example, 70 percent of the jobs in the Lebanon, Hanover area pay a livable wage for a single person. Contrast this with the estimate that only 8 percent of the jobs in the Northern New Hampshire area pay a livable wage for a single person with two young children. The proportion of jobs paying a livable wage also varies considerably by area of the state. It is interesting to note that for single persons, the North Country and southern New Hampshire each have 59 percent of jobs paying a livable wage. But when one considers the hourly wage necessary to support a single person with two young children, the percentage of livable wage jobs drops markedly and unevenly for the two areas, with 8 percent of North Country jobs paying a livable wage and 13 percent of jobs in southern New Hampshire paying a livable wage. Presumably this is because there are more high wage jobs that could enable a single person with two young children to be self-sufficient in the southern part of the state.

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Among the sub areas of the state, those that generally have the highest percentage of jobs paying a livable wage include the Lebanon, Hanover area; and Nashua PMSA. Those that generally have the lowest percentage of jobs paying a livable wage include the Northern NH area; town of Pelham; Peterborough LMA; Plymouth LMA; and Salem, Derry area.4

2 New Hampshire Employment Security, 1998 Profile of New Hampshire and its Eighteen Labor Market Areas, p. v. 3 It is important not to get ‘‘Northern New Hampshire’’ confused with the ‘‘North Country.’’ The first is a Department of Employment Security grouping of LMAs, as described above. The North Country includes Coos County and the top half of Carroll and Grafton Counties.

4 The Pelham area contains very few jobs and should not be given much emphasis. The


What Kinds of Jobs Don’t Pay a Livable Wage?

The following table lists 81 job categories whose 1998 median wage was less than $8.81, the estimated livable wage for a single person in 1998. Many of these are part of the service economy, such as bank tellers (median hourly wage of $8.28), cashiers ($7.11), parking lot attendants ($6.97), and hairdressers ($7.62). Many of these job categories also serve an important role in New Hampshire’s tourist industry, such as fast food cooks (median hourly wage of $6.43), bellhops ($6.71), and recreation workers ($6.84). There are not many job categories in this list that obviously belong in the manufacturing sector. Examples of these are hand packers and packagers (median hourly wage of $7.23), garment sewing machine operators ($8.32), and molders and casters ($8.31).

Jobs with Median Wage Below Livable Wage

Estimated Percentage of Jobs Paying a Livable Wage, 1999 Two Parents/ Two Parents/ Two Parents/ Two Parents/ Single Two Children Two Children One Child One Child Person/ Single (both parents (one parent (both parents (one parent Two Person/ Single Area of the State working) working) working) working) Children One Child Person Claremont LMA 38 13 51 16 9 16 61 Concord LMA 39 16 52 21 11 19 63 Keene LMA 40 16 52 20 12 18 56 Laconia LMA 36 18 50 21 13 21 58 Lebanon, Hanover Area

48 25 61 29 20 28 70

Manchester PMSA 42 21 55 24 15 23 59 Nashua PMSA 44 21 56 27 16 24 62 Northern NH Area 33 13 49 17 8 16 61 Pelham town 29 13 38 15 7 15 43 Peterborough LMA 35 16 47 19 10 18 52 Plymouth LMA 31 13 44 16 9 15 52 Portsmouth, Dover, Rochester Area

38 17 51 21 12 20 57

Salem, Derry Area 33 15 43 17 10 16 50 Seabrook Area 39 21 47 23 16 23 53 North Country 33 13 48 17 8 16 59 Southern NH 40 18 52 22 13 21 59 NH, Total 40 17 52 22 13 21 58 Notes: LMA stands for Labor Market Area. Northern NH includes the Berlin, Colebrook, Conway, Lancaster, and Littleton LMAs. The North Country includes Northern NH and the Plymouth LMA. Source: Calculations by authors based on data from New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, "1998 New Hampshire Occupational Employment and Wages − Statewide and Substate" and New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage, June 2000.

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reason is that LMAs often cross state boundaries, but the information we have used is for New Hampshire only. Pelham represents a small part of the interstate Lowell, MA-NH LMA.

Jobs with Median Wage Below Livable Wage 1998 Percentage Median Estimated of Total Hourly

Occupation Employment State Jobs Wage Amusement and Recreation Attendants 1,940 0.33% 6.35 Animal Caretakers, Except Farm 420 0.07% 7.07 Announcers, Radio and TV 280 0.05% 8.59 Baggage Porters and Bellhops 60 0.01% 6.71 Bakers, Bread and Pastry 940 0.16% 8.40 Bakers, Manufacturing 40 0.01% 8.23 Bank Tellers 2,310 0.40% 8.28 Bartenders 2,410 0.42% 6.38 Broadcast Technicians 110 0.02% 8.49 Cashiers 14,910 2.57% 7.11 Child Care Workers 1,840 0.32% 7.28 Cleaning and Building Service Workers, NEC 1,440 0.25% 8.75 Combination Food Preparation and Service Workers 7,050 1.22% 6.31 Conveyor Operators and Tenders 60 0.01% 8.42 Cooks, Fast Food 1,530 0.26% 6.43 Cooks, Short Order 920 0.16% 7.76 Counter and Rental Clerks 2,200 0.38% 7.41 Counter Attendants, Lunchroom 3,530 0.61% 5.92 Crossing Guards 190 0.03% 7.99 Custom Tailors and Sewers 60 0.01% 8.49 Demonstrators and Promoters 180 0.03% 8.33 Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers 1,400 0.24% 6.04 Driver and Sales Workers 1,310 0.23% 7.65 File Clerks 800 0.14% 7.74 Food Preparation Workers 6,300 1.09% 6.97 Food Servers 280 0.05% 6.76 Food Service Workers, NEC 1,770 0.31% 7.53 Government, Chief Executives and Legislators (Municipal) 200 0.03% 6.25 Guards 2,180 0.38% 8.19 Guides 90 0.02% 6.63 Hairdressers and Hairstylists 2,250 0.39% 7.62 Hand Packers and Packagers 4,320 0.74% 7.23 Health Service Workers, NEC 1,720 0.30% 8.72 Helpers - Construction Trades and Extractive Workers 30 0.01% 8.43 Home Health Aides 2,130 0.37% 8.21 Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurants, Lounges, and Coffee Shops 1,360 0.23% 6.99 Hotel Desk Clerks 970 0.17% 7.55 Human Services Workers 2,240 0.39% 8.77 Interviewing Clerks, Except Personnel and Social Welfare 460 0.08% 8.57 Janitors and Cleaners 8,030 1.38% 8.00 Laundry and Dry Cleaning Machine Operators and Tenders, Ex Press 660 0.11% 7.56 Library Assistants and Bookmobile Drivers 760 0.13% 8.22 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 4,310 0.74% 7.36 Mail Clerks, Except Mail Machine Operators 650 0.11% 8.25 Manicurists 200 0.03% 6.04 Menders, Garments and Linens 40 0.01% 8.13 Messengers 230 0.04% 8.25 Molders and Casters, Hand 70 0.01% 8.31 Motion Picture Projectionists 40 0.01% 8.13 Municipal Clerks 240 0.04% 8.56

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Jobs with Median Wage Below Livable Wage Nursery and Greenhouse Managers 40 0.01% 7.04 Parking Lot Attendants 70 0.01% 6.97 Personal and Home Care Aides 980 0.17% 7.11 Pharmacy Technicians 500 0.09% 8.46 Pressers, Delicate Fabric 60 0.01% 8.66 Pressing Machine Ops & Tenders, Textile, Garment, & Rel. Materials 290 0.05% 7.91 Producers, Directors, Actors 270 0.05% 6.26 Recreation Workers 1,750 0.30% 6.84 Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents 520 0.09% 8.42 Residential Counselors 1,000 0.17% 8.63 Salespersons, Retail 25,940 4.47% 7.58 Service Station Attendants 1,050 0.18% 7.18 Service Workers, NEC 1,580 0.27% 8.07 Sewing Machine Operators, Garment 660 0.11% 8.32 Sewing Machine Operators, Non - Garment 230 0.04% 8.04 Shoe and Leather Workers 210 0.04% 7.33 Statement Clerks 60 0.01% 8.38 Stock Clerks, Sales Floor 6,890 1.19% 7.75 Switchboard Operators 960 0.17% 8.63 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs 390 0.07% 6.82 Teacher Aides and Educational Assistants, Clerical 2,460 0.42% 7.98 Teacher Aides, Paraprofessional 5,140 0.89% 7.70 Teachers and Instructors, NEC 1,390 0.24% 8.58 Tire Repairers and Changers 520 0.09% 8.12 Transportation Attendants 30 0.01% 7.04 Ushers, Lobby Attendants and Ticket Takers 330 0.06% 5.99 Vehicle Washers and Equipment Cleaners 670 0.12% 8.08 Veterinary Assistants 210 0.04% 8.28 Waiters and Waitresses 10,120 1.74% 5.85 Woodworking Machine Operators and Tenders 440 0.08% 8.53 Woodworking Machine Setters 140 0.02% 8.22 Total 161,550 27.85%

Notes: The median wages are for 1998 and the livable wage ($9.01) is that estimated for a single person in New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage, June 2000. Therefore our 1999 livable wage estimate must be multiplied by 0.978 to obtain an estimate of the 1998 livable wage, where 0.978 is derived from the increase in the CPI from 1998 to 1999. Thus in 1998 a livable wage for a single person is estimated to be $8.81. NEC stands for "not elsewhere classified." Source: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, "1998 New Hampshire Occupational Employment and Wages − Statewide." What is included in unemployment?

Estimating the number of individuals who are unemployed is not as simple as it may appear at first glance. To be counted as unemployed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one must have

not worked at all during the week the individual is interviewed, and have made specific efforts to find work in the month ending in the interview week. Thus, individuals are not counted as unemployed if, during the interview week they:

• Have done any paid work at all

• Worked in their own business or on their own farm

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• Worked without pay in a family business or on a family farm

• Were temporarily absent from their job because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes

• Were laid off from their jobs, but expecting a recall

• Have not worked, but made no specific efforts to find a job in the month ending in the interview week. (Samuelson and Nordhaus 2001: 320-322)

Additional limitations of reported unemployment rates for local areas derive from the size of the sample of individuals inter-viewed. There are some who argue that state unemployment survey samples are too small to make the monthly state unem-ployment figures very reliable (Ansberry 2001). Nevertheless, unemployment rates are probably the most keenly scrutinized data available concerning labor market conditions.

How Do Workers Manage Without a Livable Wage?

Given our estimates that, depending upon household type, from 42 to 87 percent of New Hampshire jobs on average do not pay a livable wage, the natural question arises ••how do workers manage without a livable wage? There are a number of answers to this question, but it is beyond the scope of this study to

quantify the relative importance of each. Some households may simply do without some of the components of what we have defined as basic needs. The primary example here is health insurance. Recent studies have shown that about 16 percent of New Hampshire residents are not covered by private insurance and that the poorer New Hampshire residents are, the less likely they are to have insurance (Collins 1999 and McConnell 1999). Individuals may also work more than the 40 hours per week assumed in the estimates of the livable wage. For certain jobs, such as waiter or waitress, there is additional income from tips. The North Country Business and Worker Opinion Survey found that twice as many workers held more than one job in the North Country than in New Hampshire as a whole (North Country Council, Inc. et al 2000: 10). Apparently this is one way that North Country residents have used to cope with the relative scarcity of livable wage jobs in their part of New Hampshire. In some cases there are other family resources that enable a worker to afford all basic needs without earning a livable wage. For example, a high school student who works at a minimum wage job (and the current state minimum wage of $5.15 is below all of our estimates of the livable wage) may rely on his or her parents for financial support. Alternatively, one worker earning less than a livable wage may be married to an individual making significantly more than the livable wage. Thus a teacher aide married to a financial executive is likely to have sufficient household income to meet basic needs even though many teacher aides do not earn a livable wage. A third example is a mother-in-law who provides free child care for a daughter-in-law, making it possible for her daughter-in-law’s household to afford all basic needs without holding livable wage jobs. Finally, the safety net of federal, state and local government may help fill the gap between the cost of a household’s basic needs and the income derived from jobs paying less than the livable wage. Thus, income support through TANF, food stamps, or subsidized health care may allow many households whose earners do not have livable wage jobs to afford the necessities of life.

Alternative Views of Employment Opportunities Around New Hampshire

There are two useful data series that provide an alternative view of employment opportunities around the state. The first are data on average hourly wages. The second are data on local area unemployment rates. Average Wages Around the State

Wages also vary greatly around the state. The table to the right shows the average hourly wage by area of the state. The average hourly wage in the state in 1999 was $15.46, while the North Country’s average wage was $11.03 and the average wage for southern New Hampshire was $15.63. Thus the average hourly wage in the North Country is 30 percent lower than for southern New Hampshire. The areas with the highest average wages were: the Lebanon, Hanover area; Manchester PMSA; Nashua PMSA; and Seabrook area. The areas with the lowest average wages were: the Plymouth LMA, Northern NH area (which includes the Berlin, Colebrook, Conway, Lancaster and Littleton LMAs), and town of Pelham. All but the town of Pelham are part of the North Country. 5

Average Hourly Wages, 1999

Area of the State Average Hourly Wage Berlin LMA $12.46 Claremont LMA $12.59 Colebrook LMA $9.62 Concord LMA $14.12 Conway LMA $10.32 Keene LMA $13.22 Laconia LMA $12.51 Lancaster LMA $11.83 Lebanon, Hanover Area $16.24 Littleton LMA $11.39 Manchester PMSA $16.44 Nashua PMSA $18.31 Northern NH Area $11.05 Pelham town $11.83 Peterborough LMA $14.65 Plymouth LMA $10.97 Portsmouth, Dover,

Rochester Area $15.68

Salem, Derry Area $14.37 Seabrook Area $17.23 North Country $11.03 Southern NH $15.63 NH, Total $15.46 Notes: LMA stands for Labor Market Area.

Northern NH includes the Berlin, Colebrook, Conway, Lancaster, and Littleton LMAs. The North Country includes Northern NH and the Plymouth LMA. Source: Calculations by the authors and data from New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, "1999 Employment and Wage Data for the Eighteen Labor Market Areas." Release date April 2001. www.nhes.state.nh.us/elmilpdfzip/99lmas.xls. Accessed May 14, 2001.


Unemployment Rates within the State

Unemployment rates vary around the state. The most disaggregated unemployment rates available are measured by Labor Market Area (LMA).

5 The mill closings in Berlin and Gorham at the end of the summer of 2001 will surely have an impact on average wages in the Berlin LMA. In a recent study, New Hampshire Employment Security estimated that the closing of these plants would decrease wages by 5.6 percent in the Coos County economy (New Hampshire Employment Security 2001, p. 5).

The following table shows that for the latest month available when this report went to press, the LMA unemployment rates varied from a high of 17.1 percent in the Berlin area to 1.3 percent in the Lebanon, Hanover area.6 The particularly high rate of unemployment in the Berlin area is due to the shut down of paper mills in Berlin and Gorham in August 2001.

6 These unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates by Labor Market Area are not available.

Underemployment Underemployment is a broader measure of lack of success in the labor market than unemployment. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Because of the difficulty of developing an objective set of criteria which could be readily used in a monthly household survey, no official government statistics are available on the total number of persons who might be viewed as underemployed” (U.S. Department of Labor, February 1994: 13). An individual could be considered underemployed for a variety of reasons. Involuntary part-time workers work part-time, but would prefer full time employment. Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Another type of underemployment that is very difficult to measure includes individuals who have jobs that under-utilize their skills. (e.g., a person with a Ph.D. who drives a cab). The government collects data on individuals who work part time (less than 35 hours per week). Those who work part time because of economic reasons, such as slack business conditions, can reasonably be considered underemployed. In 1999, it was estimated that 15 percent of part-time workers in the U.S. worked part time because of economic conditions. (U.S. Department of Labor, 2001). In the North Country 26 percent of those surveyed who worked part time indicated that it was for economic reasons (North Country Council, Inc., et al 2000:11). The BLS provides other statistics related

to underemployment. In July 2001, the official U.S.

unemployment rate was 4.7 percent. For that same month, the broadest measure of labor underutilization reported by the BLS was 8.1 percent. This measure included all unemployed, marginally attached workers, and those employed part-time for economic reasons (U.S. Department of Labor, 2001: Table A-8).

Notes: The unemployment rates above are not seasonally adjusted. LMA stands for Labor Market Area. Northern NH includes the Berlin, Colebrook, Conway, Lancaster, and Littleton LMAs. The North Country includes Northern NH and the Plymouth LMA. Source: Calculations by the authors and data from New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, "Local Area Unemployment Statistics." Release date October 26, 2001. www.nhes.state.nh.us/elmi/laus.htm. Accessed October 27, 2001.

Local Area Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates Area of the State Sept.-01 Berlin LMA 17.1 Claremont LMA 1.8 Colebrook LMA 1.5 Concord LMA 2.6 Conway LMA 3.4 Keene LMA 2.9 Laconia LMA 2.7 Lancaster LMA 2.7 Lebanon, Hanover Area 1.3 Littleton LMA 2.3 Manchester PMSA 3.7 Nashua PMSA 4.5 Northern NH Area 5.5 Pelham town 5.0 Peterborough LMA 3.0 Plymouth LMA 1.6 Portsmouth, Dover, Rochester Area 2.8 Salem, Derry Area 6.2 Seabrook Area 5.7 North Country 4.7 Southern NH 3.6 NH, Total 3.7



At 4.7 percent, the unemployment rate for the North Country is higher than that for Southern NH (3.6 percent). The New Hampshire average was 3.7 percent.

It is interesting to compare the North Country to southern New Hampshire along the three dimensions of labor market data we have examined.

• Except for single persons with no children, every other household type finds a smaller proportion of livable wage jobs in the North Country than in southern New Hampshire.

• Average hourly wages are 30 percent lower in the North Country than for southern New Hampshire.

• The latest unemployment rate in the North Country was 1.1 percentage points higher than for southern New Hampshire.

Looking to the Future

This paper closes by taking two alternative views of the future of livable wage jobs. One focuses on New Hampshire Employment Security’s projections of the forty fastest growing occupations in New Hampshire over the period 1998 to 2008. The next two tables divide those fastest growing occupations between those that pay a median wage below the 1998 livable wage for single persons in New Hampshire ($8.81) and those that pay above that livable wage.7 A look at the following two tables indicates that a small minority of the fastest growing occupations in New Hampshire pay median wages that are below the livable wage. Fast growing occupations that pay median wages below the livable wage include home health aides, human services workers, personal and home health care aides, residential counselors, and paraprofessional teacher aides.

7 It was not possible to find 1998 median wages, and thus classify by above or below livable wage, for four of the forty fastest growing occupations: Health Assessment and Treatment Teachers, Postsecondary; Health Diagnostics Teachers, Postsecondary; Correctional Officers; and Computer Engineers.

Note that the median is that number for which half the data exceed the value and half are less than that value. Thus, in the following list of numbers, the number 3 is the median: 100, 15, 3, 2, and 1.


Many fast-growing occupations that pay above a livable wage involve either the health care or computer field. 1998 median wages range from $8.96 for certain machine tool operators to $34.88 for managers in the engineering, mathematics and natural sciences fields. All occupations so listed have projected growth rates over 33 percent.

Subset of Forty Fastest Growing Occupations, 1998-2008, with NH Median Wage BELOW Livable Wage

Projected 1998 NH Percent Change 1998 NH Median

Occupation Employment 1998-2008 Hourly Wage Home Health Aides 2,166 62.3% $8.21 Human Services Workers 2,358 52.7% $8.77 Personal and Home Care Aides 965 49.4% $7.11 Residential Counselors 961 39.0% $8.63 Teacher Aides, Paraprofessional 4,659 36.1% $7.70 Notes: The livable wage ($9.01) is that estimated for a single person in New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage, June 2000. Therefore our 1999 livable wage estimate must be multiplied by 0.978 to obtain an estimate of the 1998 livable wage, where 0.978 is derived from the increase in the CPI from 1998 to 1999. Thus in 1998 a livable wage for a single person is estimated to be $8.81. There were no median wage data for four of the occupations. Source: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, "1998 New Hampshire Occupational Employment and Wages − Statewide." and "Top 40 Occupations: Fastest Growth." Release date January 2001.

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The alternative view involves looking at the availability of jobs over the business cycle. Although we have no information over time on availability of livable wage jobs, it is sensible to assume that as unemployment increases, the availability of livable wage jobs declines, and vice versa.

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Subset of Forty Fastest Growing Occupations, 1998-2008, with NH Median Wage ABOVE Livable Wage

1998 NH Projected Percent 1998 NH Median

Occupation Employment Change 1998-2008 Hourly Wage Computer Support Specialists 1,942 87.9% $18.10 Systems Analysts 2,706 87.4% $23.71 Desktop Publishing Specialists 180 84.4% $12.57 Database Administrators 296 72.6% $23.55 Instructional Coordinators 303 60.4% $19.39 Physician Assistants 217 59.5% $28.50 Medical Assistants 791 56.9% $10.74 Medical Records Technicians 349 53.3% $9.83 Dental Assistants 923 52.3% $12.41 Physician and Corrective Therapy Assistants and Aides 310 52.3% $12.01 Combination Machine Tool Operators & Tenders, M/P 270 51.9% $8.96 Respiratory Therapists 296 51.0% $17.00 Surgical Technologists and Technicians 175 50.9% $12.50 Dental Hygienists 1,008 50.4% $22.00 Social Workers, Medical and Psychiatric 1,160 50.3% $14.67 Speech-Language Pathologists and Audiologists 604 45.9% $19.59 Data Processing Equipment Repairers 316 44.9% $14.24 Paralegal Personnel 932 44.0% $16.54 Occupational Therapists 545 43.9% $20.44 Physical Therapists 664 43.5% $23.49 Engineering, Mathematical, and Natural Sciences Mgrs. 1,852 42.2% $34.88 Medicine and Health Service Managers 1,613 41.4% $20.07 Metal Molding, Coremaking, & Casting Machine Operators & Tenders

164 39.6% $9.68

Sales Agents, Securities, Commodities & Financial Services

1,642 39.4% $17.30

Electrolytic Plating & Coating Machine Operators & Tenders, M/P

273 38.1% $9.63

Teachers, Special Education 1,334 36.7% $17.29 Chiropractors 112 35.7% $22.09 Sales Agents, Selected Business Services 827 35.7% $15.52 Life Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary 157 35.7% $25.01 Bill and Account Collectors 976 35.7% $10.24 Electronics Repairers, Commercial & Industrial Equipment 286 35.3% $12.85 Notes: The livable wage ($9.01) is that estimated for a single person in New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage, June 2000. Therefore our 1999 livable wage estimate must be multiplied by 0.978 to obtain an estimate of the 1998 livable wage, where 0.978 is derived from the increase in the CPI from 1998 to 1999. Thus in 1998 a livable wage for a single person is estimated to be $8.81. There were no median wage data for four of the occupations. Source: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, "1998 New Hampshire Occupational Employment and Wages − Statewide." and "Top 40 Occupations: Fastest Growth." Release date January 2001.


As this study went to press, many economic forecasters were proclaiming that the U.S. economy had fallen into a recession. A well-respected New Hampshire forecaster concluded:

The September 11th terrorist attacks on America have made a national and local recession a virtual certainty. The local and national economies were already decelerating prior to the attacks, and the shock to business and consumer confidence associated with the attacks will resound throughout the country, even to the Granite State.8

The only question seemed to be how severe the recession would be and how long it would last.9 Assuming no more significant terrorist attacks, the New England Economic Project forecasted a short, mild economic downturn, with New Hampshire being the first state in New England to climb out of recession. The table to the right shows the state’s unemployment rate from 1987 to 2000. The figures from 2001 through 2005 are from the New England Economic Project forecast described above. Note the wide variation in the state’s unemployment rate. In 1992, at the bottom of the last recession, the state’s unemployment rate peaked at 7.5 percent. From 1992 until 2000, the unemployment rate mostly declined, bottoming out in 2000 at 2.8 percent. As this study went to press, the unemployment rate was forecasted to increase to 4.1 percent in 2002, and then decline, falling to 3.4 percent by 2005.

NH Unemployment Rate, History and Forecast

Year Unemployment Rate 1987 2.5 1988 2.5 1989 3.4 1990 5.6 1991 7.2 1992 7.5 1993 6.6 1994 4.6 1995 4.0 1996 4.2 1997 3.1 1998 2.9 1999 2.7 2000 2.8 2001f 3.0 2002f 4.1 2003f 3.8 2004f 3.5 2005f 3.4 Notes: Figures for 2001-2005 are forecasts from the New England Economic Project. Source: U.S. Statistical Abstract, various years, and New England Economic Project, “Bluebook” from Economic Outlook Conference, October 30, 2001.

It is important to note the high degree of uncertainty of this economic forecast. Not only is the onset of the recession a very recent phenomenon, it is particularly difficult to predict the future of the war on terrorism and its economic repercussions.

8 Dennis Delay, ‘‘New Hampshire Economic Outlook,’’ in New England Economic Project, ‘‘Bluebook’’ from Economic Outlook Conference, October 30, 2001.

9 A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declining production (Gross Domestic Product). The last U.S. recession was from July 1990 to March 1991.


APPENDIX

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DEFINITION OF NORTH COUNTRY

New Hampshire North Country includes all of Coos County, but only the northern parts of Carroll and Grafton counties. Specifically, the towns included in the North Country, grouped by labor market area, are: Upper Coos: Clarksville, Colebrook, Columbia, Dixville, Errol, North Stratford, Pittsburg, Stewartstown, Stratford, West Stewartstown Lancaster: Bretton Woods, Dalton, Jefferson, Groveton, Lancaster, Northumberland, Stark, Twin Mountain, Whitefield Berlin: Berlin, Dummer, Gorham, Milan, Randolph, Shelburne Littleton: Bethlehem, Easton, Franconia, Landaff, Lisbon, Littleton, Lyman, Monroe, Sugar Hill Haverhill: Bath, Benton, Haverhill, North Haverhill, Warren, Wentworth, Woodsville Conway: Albany, Bartlett, Center Conway, Chatham, Conway, Eaton, Eaton Center, Glen, Hart’s Location, Intervale, Jackson, Kearsarge, Madison, North Conway, Silver Lake Plymouth: Campton, Ellsworth, Groton, Lincoln, North Woodstock, Plymouth, Rumney, Thornton, Waterville Valley, West Campton, West Plymouth, Woodstock This is the same definition of ‘‘North Country’’ that was used in the 1999 North Country Business Survey.

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METHODOLOGY

We used data from the New Hampshire Department of Employment

Security on 1998 wages (the most recent year available when the analysis was done) for 580,100 individuals in 548 different job classifications. The classifications included, for example, financial managers, tax preparers, chemists, law clerks, dental hygienists, general office clerks, messengers, logging tractor operators, and child care workers. The wage data reported for each job classification are mean wage, median wage, wage at 25th percentile, and wage at 75th percentile. We extrapolated beyond the 25th and 75th percentiles, assuming a uniform distribution of wages, and used an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the number of jobs in each classification that paid a livable wage. Because wage data were reported for the state as a whole and for sub-areas of the state, we were able to estimate the proportion of jobs by area and for the whole state that pay a livable wage.10 For the North Country, for example, we used our estimates from our previous report that a livable wage for a single person was an hourly wage in excess of $8.04, and a livable hourly wage for a single person with two young children was $17.37.

One important data note is that our estimates of livable wages are for 1999 and our data on wages of existing jobs are for 1998. In order to make the two sets of figures comparable for our major table of results, we deflated the livable wage figures from 1999 back to 1998, using the consumer price index. It is also sensible to note that there is a somewhat artificial character to any counting of livable wage jobs, in the following respect. Many jobs pay a range of wages depending upon the education and experience of the jobholder. For example, a school in any part of the state would pay a first year sixth grade teacher with a B.A. less than a sixth grade teacher with ten years of experience and an M.A. In some cases, a job that does not pay a livable wage currently may provide an adequate income in the future, assuming the employee holds the job long term. Additionally, a job that may not pay a livable wage for one individual may provide one for someone with more education and experience. Thus ‘‘livable wage jobs’’ may not exist apart from the characteristics of the jobholder. On the other hand, there are certain jobs, such as bank teller, which have small wage range. No matter what education persons obtain, they will not be able to earn more than a certain top wage rate as a bank teller.

Another point is that not all job seekers would be appropriate for any particular ‘‘livable wage job.’’ Coos County may have openings for financial managers, but individuals without a B.A. would be unlikely to be able to fill those jobs. At some point, an even more detailed analysis of available livable wage jobs relative to job seekers, where the skill levels of seekers and jobs are matched, would be useful.

10 An LMA is a labor market area. A labor market area is an ‘‘economically integrated region within which workers may readily change jobs without changing their place of residence.’’ New Hampshire is divided into 18 LMAs. The detailed data set we obtained from New Hampshire Employment Security, described above, combined five LMAs into an area called ‘‘Northern NH’’: Berlin, Colebrook, Conway, Lancaster, and Littleton (Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, New Hampshire Employment Security, June 1999).


References Ansberry, Clare. 2001. ‘‘Odd Numbers: States Discover It Is Hard Work

to Figure Their Jobless Rate.’’ Wall Street Journal. June 4.

Collins, Rachel M. 1999. ‘‘Healthcare Study Finds 96,000 in N.H. Uninsured.’’ The Citizen, Laconia, NH, November 17.

Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, New Hampshire Employment Security, State of New Hampshire. 2000. 1998 Profile of New Hampshire and its Eighteen Labor Market Areas. June.

Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, New Hampshire Employment Security, State of New Hampshire. 2001. Impact of a Potential Coos County Paper Industry Contraction. September.

Feingold, Jeff. 2001. ‘‘New Hampshire Economists Use the ‘‘R’’ Word.’’ New Hampshire Business Review, October 5-18.

McConnell, Amy. 1999. ‘‘State Finds Health Insurance Threatened.’’ Concord Monitor, November 17.

Mishel, Lawrence, Jared Bernstein and John Schmitt. 2001. The State of Working America, 2000-2001. An Economic Policy Institute Book. Ithaca, NY: ILR Press, an imprint of Cornell University Press.

New England Economic Project. ‘‘Bluebook’’ from Economic Outlook Conference, October 30, 2001.

New Hampshire Basic Needs and a Livable Wage. June 2000. Research Director: Daphne A. Kenyon, Ph.D., President, The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. Project Directors: North Country Council, Inc., UNH Office of Economic Initiatives, NH Small Business Development Center, and USDA Rural Development.

North Country Council, Inc., UNH Office of Economic Initiatives, USDA Rural Development, Public Service of NH, and NH Small Business Development Center. 2000. ‘‘North Country Business and Worker Opinion Survey Results.’’ February.

Peace and Justice Center. The Vermont Job Gap Study. Burlington, Vermont, January 1997.

Peace and Justice Center. The Vermont Job Gap Study, Phase 5, Basic Needs and a Livable Wage, 1998 Update. Burlington, Vermont, August 1999.

‘‘The Pocket Chartroom: Over the Edge.’’ 2001. Goldman Sachs US Economic Research. September/October.

Pohlmann, Lisa, Christopher St. John, and Wade Kavanaugh. January 31, 2000. Getting By in 1999: Basic Needs and Livable Wages in Maine. Maine Center for Economic Policy, Augusta, ME.

Samuelson, Paul A. and William D. Nordhaus. 2001. Macroeconomics, Seventeenth Edition. Boston: McGraw-Hill, Irwin.

Schlesinger, Jacob and Russell Gold. 2001. ‘‘Labor Lost: High-Employment Era Seems Over in Wake of Terrorist Attacks.’’ Wall Street Journal, October 8.

Stein, Charles and Steve Syre. 2001. ‘‘Economists Believe Recession is Here, But How Long Will it Last?’’ Boston Globe, September 23.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. February 1994. ‘‘How the Government Measures Unemployment.’’ http://www.bls.gov/cps_htgm.htm.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2001. ‘‘Bureau of Labor Statistics Data.’’ http://www.146.142.4.24/cgi-bin/surveymost.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. August 3, 2001. News. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit/to8.htm.

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