The Big Picture

Sir Bob Kerslake, Head of the Civil Service and DCLG Permanent Secretary

Association of Directors of Adult Social Services 18 April 2012

2

Economic Challenge

889296

100104108112116

120124128

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

..

Extrapolated pre-crisis trend (OBR)

OBR 2012 Forecast

11%

8%

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Projections of potential output slide 3.4

3

Spending Challenge

4

Implementation of the Government’s fiscal consolidation plan is on course:

• by end 2011-12, 40% of the annual fiscal consolidation planned for the Spending Review 2010 period achieved, with 30% of the spending and two-thirds of the tax consolidation in place;

• by end April 2012, measures implemented to deliver almost three-quarters of the total savings expected from reforms to the welfare system; and

• the majority of tax consolidation measures will have been legislated by 6 April 2012.

Savings and Growth

5

Locally Driven Economic Growth

Tools• Growing Places Fund• National Planning Policy

Framework• Housing Strategy• Regional Growth Fund

Partnership• 100% of England covered by

LEPs• Enterprise Zones• City Deals

Incentives• New Homes Bonus• Localisation of Business Rates• Tax Increment Financing

6

Public Service Reform

Open Public Services White Paper 2011• Access to best possible public

services• Choice and control

Open Public Services Paper 2012• Major reforms of our services• First progress report on our reforms

across public services• Right to choose• Greater Choice• Choice Champions

Social care and other services

Social care personal budget: •Setting an ambition that councils will provide all those who are eligible for adult social care with access to a personal budget, preferably as a direct payment by 2013

SEN personal budget:

•Giving the option of a personal budget to all families with children with a statement of Special Educational Need a new Education, Health and Care Plan by 2014

7

Health Reform

The case for change

• Rising demand and treatment costs

• Service improvement

• Finances

Health & Social Care Act

• Clinically led commissioning

• Support for innovative services

• Greater voice for patients

•Local and national accountability

•New public health system

8

Care and Support Reform

Social Care Vision

_________Nov 2010

Law Commission

Report_________May 2011

Dilnot Commission

Report__________

July 2011

Caring for our future -

engagement________Sept - Dec

2011

Care and Support

White Paper _________spring 2012

Legislation

Dept. of Health

9

Health & Wellbeing Boards and the role for Local Authorities

• Massive opportunity for local government to take a lead in delivering more integration between Health, Adult Social Care and other services (including Housing)

• The level of take-up in the early implementer network -138 of 152 top tier authorities – shows the appetite in local government to take on a strengthened leadership role

• Local Authorities have a pivotal role in what is an opportunity for significant transformational change in your areas – some areas are running fast with this – learn from them

• You are best placed as Local Leaders and Champions

• Your role as Chair of the Health and Wellbeing Board is crucial and deliberate

10

Barnet’s Graph of Doom

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35020

10/1

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2011

/12

2012

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2014

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2020

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£ M

illio

ns

Adults Social Care Children's Services Net budget

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Social Policy & Welfare Reform

• Universal Credit

• Benefits Cap

• Troubled Families

• Riots Communities & Victims Panel

• Young People

12

Community BudgetsCommunity Rights

Community Budgets

Whole Place• Cheshire West and Chester• Essex• Greater ManchesterThe “tri-boroughs”

Neighbourhood • Queens Park - Westminster• Ilfracombe - North Devon• Little Horton - Bradford • Sherwood - Tunbridge Wells• Haverhill - Suffolk• Norbiton - Kingston • Poplar - Tower Hamlets• Balsall Heath, Shard End, Castle Vale - Birmingham• Cowgate, Kenton Bar, Montagu - Newcastle• White City - Hammersmith & Fulham

Community RightsRight to Bid• Gives communities a fair chance to bid to

take over land and buildings that are important to them

Right to Challenge• Gives community groups with ideas on

how to run local services more effectively the right to challenge a local council to tender the service out

Neighbourhood Planning• Gives neighbourhoods greater influence in

deciding where facilities should be and the development they want locally. Plans subject to a referendum.

13

The size and shape of the Civil Service is changing significantly

0

100

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300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,20019

02

1905

1908

1911

1914

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1920

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1926

1929

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

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1950

1953

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1962

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1968

1971

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1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

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2010

FT

E e

mp

loym

ent

(‘00

0s)

Annual FTE series (1918-1998)

Quarterly FTE series (1999 Q1 - 2011 Q2)

Lowest FTE post-WWII

Sources: 1902 to 1990 – Mandate and Departmental Returns (Civil Service Statistics); 1991 to 1998 – ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics (PSES); 1999 to date – ONS Quarterly Public Sector Employment Statistics (QPSES)

1918: 221,000

1944: 1.16m(highest ever)

1977: 746,000(highest in past 50 years)

1999 Q1: 478,000(start of quarterly time-series)

2005 Q2: 536,000(HM Courts Service transfer in)

2011 Q4: 435,000(lowest since WWII)

14

Conclusions

• Local Government is recognised as delivering on an exceptionally tough spending settlement

• Demonstrating the localist approach is working on the big issues is critical

• We will need to achieve a new level of collaborative and creative thinking to get through the next spending review