the blob, el nino and the drought in puget sound
TRANSCRIPT
The Blob, El Niño, and the Drought in Puget Sound Christopher Krembs, Marine Monitoring Unit, EAP, Ecology
The Blob
The Drought
El Niño
Warmest first four months since 1981, (Source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space)
The snow has melted early or came down as rain
Hurricane Ridge: winter snow is gone. Low snow has only occurred twice since 1960 (1977 & 2005).
April 2010
Feb 2013
March 2015
Photo by Bill Baccus, Olympic National Park
June 2015
Puget Sound Basin >30% of expected Snow Water Equivalence
• Most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile in greater Puget Sound Basin • Several western regions are experiencing record low flows
By June 1, 2015, most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile
Many rivers and streams are much below normal
Record low-flows of some Puget Sound rivers (USGS)
Snoqualmie River Flow only 25% of normal
Puyallup River 6/4/ daily mean flow levels below the regulatory minimum
2014 2015
The Fraser River has been running very high. The “freshet” is much earlier in 2015
Higher than normal
Lower than normal
Expected
Fraser River is the largest freshwater source of Salish Sea affecting estuarine circulation
The Blob + El Niño
invades Pacific, flummoxing climate experts
2013-2015
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, 29 January 2014
One week mean sea surface temperature anomaly 8-14 March 2015.
Sea Surface Anomalies Persistent mass of warm water affects:
•ocean currents, •marine ecosystems •inland weather
The “Blob” in 2014, (NOAA)
The Blob hits Washington shores! Timing of coastal winds is important!
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2014 -17 -72 -34 -14 2 24 34 35 -1 -62 -49 -88
2015 -49 -27 -18
Upwelling index (NOAA)
Until September 2014 upwelled water keeps warm water offshore
Coastal Upwelling
Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling
Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange
Victoria Seattle
snowpack
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing over the sill estuarine
circulation
Fraser Skagit
San Juan Islands
Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound
upwelled water low DO , high nutrients
After September 2014 downwelling starts and brings in warm water
Downwelling
Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling
Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange
Victoria Seattle
snowpack
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing over the sill estuarine
circulation
Fraser Skagit
San Juan Islands
Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound
downwelled warmer, lower nutrients, lower salinity, LOWER DO
Ecology’s Marine Monitoring Stations Sampled by a “great team” to full depth every month
Christopher Krembs
Skip Albertson
Laura Friedenberg Julia Bos
Carol Maloy
Mya Keyzers Suzan Pool
Brooke McIntyre
Julianne Ruffner
Conditions were dominated by warm water associated with the NE Pacific Ocean warm surface anomaly. Starting in October, temperatures are the highest on our record since 1989. Oxygen and salinities are becoming lower.
Apr. 2015: Higher Temperature! Lower Oxygen Lower Salinity
Red boxes show that the water measured is warmer than any of our measurements since 1989.
Eyes Over Puget Sound Marine Long-Term Monitoring Program
Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound
Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months…
Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma)
Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound
Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months…
Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma)
Ferry monitoring observations 6-8-2015 Surface water (3m) in places already >15°C
The Victoria Clipper IV carries sensors in its sea chest. The sensors allow us to get surface transects of temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and other bio-optical measurements between Seattle and Victoria, BC twice per day.
Pockets of sea surface temperatures are now reaching >15°C near Kingston. Temperature are favorable for harmful algae species to bloom.
In temporal context: In spatial context:
What will the summer of 2015 bring?
The “Blob” is still offshore! (NOAA) 2014 May 2015
June 2015 Blob is ~500 km offshore
Will upwelled water in 2015 stay offshore?
Coastal Upwelling
Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling
Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange
Victoria Seattle Fraser
Rivers
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing over the sill estuarine
circulation
San Juan Islands
reduced snowpack
Will an El Niño deepen the nutrient rich water?
Coastal Upwelling
Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling
Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange
Victoria Seattle
reduced snowpack
Fraser Rivers
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing over the sill estuarine
circulation
San Juan Islands
dense water too deep
Rivers
Will summer squalls import more warm water?
Downwelling
Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling
Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange
Victoria Seattle
reduced snowpack
Fraser
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing over the sill estuarine
circulation
San Juan Islands
Speculating about the summer 2015
• No matter in what direction the coastal wind will blow, we can expect a
reduced renewal of water in Puget Sound.
• Puget Sound water will stay warm leading to potentially more regional
water quality issues.
• Will the situation become bigger with El Niño?
• Expect very different growth conditions for marine species.
The marine food web is responding (the news is coming in…)
• Energy-rich northern zooplankton species were replaced by southern copepods at end of 2014. Peter Chandler (Canada), San Diego meeting “The Blob”, May 2015)
• Much more gelatinous zooplankton, 'Crunchies' vs. 'Squishies‘, (John Dower, UVIC, CBC NES 6/8 here).
• A record high 96% diversion of returning Fraser River sockey salmon via
northern Vancouver Island (LaPointe et al. 2015 report, in prep).
• Largest toxic algae bloom stretching from Central California to British Columbia. NOAA (Seattle Times 6/16 here).
• First time PSP, DSP and domoic acid in Washington at the same time. DOH (Seattle Times 6/16 here).
Leveraging our flight time
• Empty transit flights Seattle - Olympia with camera on board
• Document blooms, debris, animal aggregations, oil sheens, water boundaries
• Unique perspective, minimal extra cost
jellyfish
jellyfish
boat
A. B.
Large patches of jellyfish forming in finger inlets of South Sound. Location: A. Eld Inlet; B. Budd Inlet on 6-4-2015 (South Sound).
1 Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Navigate
Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
jellyfish jellyfish
jellyfish
jellyfish jellyfish
jellyfish
jellyfish
Bloo
m
2:22 PM (6-4-2015) 3:11 PM
A. B.
4 Navigate
Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Aerial photography 6-8-2015
Large ribbons and patches of organic debris in many places of South Sound. Location: A. North of McNeil Island, B. Nisqually Reach (South Sound), 3:16 PM.
Debr
is
Debr
is Debr
is
Sediment plume of Puyallup River with internal waves meandering into Bay and mixing with a bloom. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:28 PM.
8 Navigate Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Bloo
m
boat
Plum
e
Internal waves
Large Noctiluca bloom surfacing and gathering in large quantities at tidal front. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:32 PM.
6 Navigate Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Bloo
m
Debr
is
boat ship
10 Navigate Aerial photography 6-8-2015
Large Noctiluca bloom held back front off Maury Island Marine Park and Saltwater State Park. Location: East of Vashon Island (Central Sound), 3:32 PM.
Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Bloo
m
Debr
is
15 Navigate
Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Large Noctiluca bloom has surfaced near northeast Bainbridge Island across Discovery Park, Seattle. Location: Bainbridge Island (Central Sound), 3:45 PM.
Aerial photography 6-8-2015
boat
Debr
is
Noctiluca bloom starting to surface and getting washed onto beaches. Location: Port Madison (Central Sound), 3:47 PM.
18 Navigate
Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Aerial photography 6-8-2015
boat barge
Debr
is
Debr
is
Debr
is
Is the food web changing in Puget Sound?
Hypothesis! Is Noctiluca a visible harbinger of a food web change?
Hypothesis for combining a series of recent observations affecting energy and material transfer to higher trophic levels
Eyes Over Puget Sound: