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TheCarbonFootprint

GEOG4012/11/2016

GuestLecturer:RyanLongman

WhatisCarbonDioxide?

-  Acolorless,odorlessgasproducedbyburningcarbonandorganiccompoundsandbyrespiraJon.

-  Non-toxicgasthatinitssolidformisknownas“dry-ice”.

DeposiJonoccursat-78.5°C(-109.3°F)

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Carboninouratmosphere

•  0.04%byvolume(400ppm)•  TheKeelingCurveisagraphwhich

plotsongoingCO2concentraJonintheEarthsAtmospheresince1958.

•  BasedonconJnuousmeasurementstakenatMaunaLoaObservatory(MLO)inHawai‘iunderthesupervisionofCharlesDavidKeeling

•  Seasonalcycles•  Steadyyeartoyearincrease

HowhasscienceconcludedthathumansareresponsiblefortheincreaseofCO2intheEarths

Atmosphere?

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•  Elementsarepresentedinorderofincreasingatomicnumber.

SciencehasproventhatfossilfuelemissionsarechangingatmosphericcomposiJonthroughtheuse

ofstableisotopes.

•  WhattheheckisanIsotope?•  Isotope–differenttypesofatomsofthesamechemicalelementallhavingadifferentnumberofneutronsthereforeadifferentatomicmass.

•  Thereare3naturallyoccurringcarbonIsotopes.δ12C,δ13C,δ14C

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CalculaJngAtomicMass•  Protons+Neutrons=AtomicMass•  IfCarbon(C)has6protonsthen:– 6protons+6neutrons=12=δ12C(Stable)-99%– 6protons+7neutrons=13=δ13C(stable)-1%– 6protons+8neutrons=14=δ14C(unstable)-0.00001%

AsyoucanseeallthreeisotopeshaveadifferentatomicmassandCarbon-12(δ12C)isthemostabundant.

WhatdoesIsotopestabilitymean?

•  δ14CisanunstableisotopewhichmeansitdecaysoverJme.

•  Ithasahalflifeof5730years

Usingtheδ14Cisotopeispossibletogoback~50,000yrs

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StableCarbonIsotopes.

•  δ12Candδ13CarestableisotopeswhichmeanstheydonotdecayoverJme.

•  δ12Candδ13Ccanbeusedtotellusaboutourcurrentatmosphericchemistryandallowustocompareitthechemistryofthepast.

•  TheatmosphericconcentraJonraJobetweenthesetwoisotopesalsoprovidesustheevidenceweneedtodeterminetheamountofanthropogenicinputsofCO2intotheatmosphere.

Tounderstandthisyouneedtofirstknowsomethingaboutphotosynthesis.

• PlantsdrawinCO2fromatmosphereandusetheenergyfromtheSuntofixtheinorganiccarbonintoauseableorganicform.

• Plantsprefertotakeinδ12CO2becausetheloweratomicmass(12)ofthisisotoperequireslessenergytoprocessthanδ13CO2(atomicmass13).

• Thereforeplantsdiscriminateagainstδ13CO2.Inotherwords,it’snottherefavorite“flavor”

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•  Ifplantspreferδ12CO2overδ13CO2thenthereshouldbeasteadyraJoofδ13/δ12intheatmosphere(assumingbiomassdoesn’t‘changemuch)

•  HowisitpossiblethentodeterminetheatmosphericanthropogenicinputsofCO2usingisotopes?

•  FirstwehavetoasksomequesJons.– WhatisthemainsourceofanthropogenicCO2totheatmosphere?

– Whatarefossilfuelsmadeof?– Whattypeofcarbonatomisassociatedwithplants?–  Iffossilfuelsareburnedwhatwillhappentotheδ13/δ12concentraJonsintheatmosphere?

Plants

δ12C

Decrease

FossilFuels

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Part2

Whatisacarbonfootprint?•  CarbonFootprint–ameasureoftheimpactthathumanacJviJeshaveontheenvironmentintermsoftheamountofgreenhousegases(GHG)produced,measuredinunitsofCO2.– Measuresthetotalgreenhousegasemissionscauseddirectlyandindirectlybyaperson,organizaJon,eventorproduct.

–  Iscalculatedbyconsideringtheamountofgreenhousegasemiqed/removedorembodiedinthelifecycleofaproduct.

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LifeCycleMethodologies•  ManycompaniesdonotaccountfortheenJresupplychainthatresultsinfinalgoodsandservices.– Overlookupto75%oftheGHGsinvolved.–  CaAretherebeqerwaystocalculateacarbonfootprint?

1.  CradletoGrave–Fulllifecycleofaproduct.–

resourceextracJontodisposalphase.2.  Cradletogate–parJalproductliferesource

extracJontofactorygate.(Useanddisposalareomiqed.)

3.  Cradletocradle–productisrecycled.4.  Gatetogate–looksatonlyonevalueaddedprocess

WhyisCO2usedtomeasurefootprints?

•  RadiaJveForcing–isameasureofthenetchangeintheenergybalanceoftheEarthsysteminresponsetosomeexternalperturbaJon.

•  MeasuredinWm-2.PosiJve=warmingandNegaJve=cooling•  61%oftheforcingisaresultofCO2.•  17%oftheforcingisaresultoffCH4 IPCC(2013)

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CO2Equivalent

•  GreenhousegaseshavedifferentatmosphericconcentraJonanddifferentstrengthasaGHG.

•  Becauseofthisvariability,carbonfootprintsaremeasuredintonsofCO2–eq,orthetonsofCO2thatwouldcausethesamelevelofradiaJveforcingastheemissionsofagivenGHG.

TotalGHGEmissions2013

intheU.S.GHGemissionfromtransportaJonhave

increasedbya18%since1990.–  Over90%ofthefuelispetroleumbased.–  Duetoincreaseddemandfortravel–  StagnaJonoffuelefficiency.

Over70%ofourelectricitycomesfromburningfossilfuels,mostlycoalandnaturalgas.

hqp://www.epa.gov/

Whythedecrease?TotalGHG

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•  CanyouseeanydifferencesbetweenGHGEMISSIONSandPERCAPITAEmissions?

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PerCapitaCO2Emissions

•  GlobalAvg.=4tonsofCO2-eq/yr•  USAAvg.=20tonsofCO2-eq/yr

hqp://www.asiacarbon.com/hqp://jtorresbutet.wordpress.com/

•  PrimaryfootprintisdominatedbytransportaJonandhouseholdelectricityuse.

•  Secondaryfootprintisdominatedbydiet,clothingandpersonalproducts.

AstudybytheRenewable&AppropriateEnergyLaboratoryatUCBerkelyshowswhoyouareandwhereyoulivemakesabigdifferenceintheacEviEesthathavethelargestimpactonyourcarbonfootprint.

•  California=Lowelectricity(5%)•  St.Louis=Highelectricity(25%)

hqp://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/

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Uraban/SuburbanCarbonFootprint•  Wheredoyouthinkthecarbonfootprintbigger,citesorsuburbs?•  StudieshaveshownthaturbanizaJoncandeliverlargecarbon

reducJonsbyreducingpercapitaenergyuseintransporthousingandconstrucJon

•  Newstudyshowsthatthisisoffsetbysuburbanareas.•  CarbonfootprintactuallyincreasesunJlyoureach3000personper

squaremile.

JonesandKammen(2014)

CarbonVisuals•  Ifwecouldseecarbondioxidewouldwetakeitmoreseriously?

hqp://www.carbonvisuals.com/

hqp://www.carbonvisuals.com/products-and-services/animaJon

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CarbonCredits•  CarbonCredit=1tonneofCO2–eqeitherremoved,avoidedorsequestered.–  Renewableenergy–  ForestaJonandafforestaJon–  Energyefficiency– Methanecapture

•  TheCarboncreditsystemwasraJfiedinconjuncJonwiththeKyotoProtocol.

•  CreditsaretradedontheinternaJonalmarket.•  TwoMarkets–  Voluntarycarbonoffsetmarket–  Compliancecarbonoffsetmarket

WhoGetstheMoney?•  Inthevoluntarymarket–carbonoffsetsareusedtofundprojectswhichabsorboreliminateanamountofcarbondioxidegasthatisequaltotheamountemiqed.

•  InthecompliancemarketcompaniesprofitbyreducingtheirfootprintsandsellingtheirrighttoproduceCO2.(CapandTrade)

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DoesitactuallyWork?•  EssenJally,carbonoffsetsworkbyallowingpolluterstopayotherstomaketheircarbonreducJonsforthem.– Reducepersonalresponsibility?(dowhatIwantwithoutguilt?)

–  Licenseforlargecompaniestopollutefreely–  CorrupJon?•  Areoffsetservicesactuallybeingprovided•  ArecompaniesreporJngcorrectly

–  Isthissuperiortotheideaofacarbontax?TheAmericanCleanEnergyandSecurityAct(ACES)wasapprovedbytheHouseofRepresentaJvesonJune26,2009byavoteof219-212,butwasdefeatedintheSenate

CarbonTax•  CarbonTax–polluterswillpaypertonneofcarbontheyreleaseinto

theatmosphere.–  Pricewillbesetat$23andincreasegradually–  TheamountofcarbonpolluJoninvolvedinproducingaproductwouldstarttobefactoredintoitsfinalprice.

–  Productsproducedthroughdirtyprocesseswillbecomemoreexpensive.

•  Finlandwasthefirstcountryinintactacarbontaxin1990.•  BriJshColombia,Canada(2008),Australia(2012;repealedin2014),

Ireland(2012),Sweden(1991),GreatBriJan(2001),NewZealand,Quebec,Canada(2007).

•  Boulder(Colorado)–firstintheUS(2007)-7$pertonofcarbon

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Part3Wherearewenow?Whereareweheaded?

Anthropogenic“Forced”Change

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IPCCAR42007FAQ2.1,Figure1

OurCurrentCO2ConcentraJon

Jan.2016:402.52ppmJan.2015:399.96ppm

OnMay9th(2013)thedailyaverageofcarbondioxide(CO2)intheatmospherepassedthe400ppmmark

Preindustriallevels280ppm

Increasingatrateof2.89ppm/yr

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During2015,theaveragetemperatureacrossgloballandandoceansurfaceswas1.62°F(0.9°C)abovethe20thcenturyaverage.Thiswasthehighestamongall136yearsinthe1880–2015record,surpassingthepreviousrecordsof2005and2010by0.07°F(0.04°C).

DeniersofChange•  ElectedSenateMajorityleaderPaulRyan.

•  “Idon’tknowtheanswertothatquesEonandIdon’tthinkksciencedoeseither”

•  SenatorJimInhofeofOklahomaisthenewChairmanoftheEnvironmentalandPublicworkscommiSee.

•  HehaswriSenabookdismissingclimatescienceasahoax.

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SenateVotes(January20,2016)

•  SheldonWhitehouse(D-R.I.)“ClimateChangeisReal”.–  PASSED(98-1)

•  BrianSchatz(D-Hawaii)thatstated,“climatechangeisrealandhumanacJvitysignificantlycontributestoclimatechange.”–  FAILED(50-49)

hqp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/08/3608427/climate-denier-caucus-114th-congress/

TheAnJ-ScienceClimateDenierCaucus

170electedrepresentaJvesinthe114thCongresshavetakenover$63.8millionfromthefossilfuelindustrythat’sdrivingthecarbonemissionswhichcauseclimatechange.

Over56percentofcongresseitherdenyorquesJonthesciencebehindclimatechange

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OurElectedOfficials•  SenatorLisaMurkowski,(R-AK)–IncomingChairman,Energy&NaturalResources

Commiqee,$733,144fromoilandgasindustryinhercareer•  Sen.MikeEnzi(R-WY),$489,933fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer•  Ex-GovernorRickPerry(R-TX),$977,624fromoilandgasforhis2012PresidenJal

Campaign•  SpeakerJohnBoehner(R-OH),$1,463,788fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer•  PreviousSenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnell(R-KY),$1,783,169fromoiland

gasindustryinhiscareer.•  SenatorMitchMcConnell(R-KY),$1,783,169fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer•  SenatorRandPaul(R-KY),$129,305fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer•  SenateMajorityleaderRep.PaulRyan(R-WI),onwhetherhumanacJvitycauses

climatechange,$508,549fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer.•  SenatorTedCruz(R-TX),$932,568fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer•  Ex-Rep.SteveStockman(R-TX),$118,100fromoilandgasindustryinhiscareer

FutureScenarios

•  Wearecurrentlyonthegreatesttrajectory(RCP8.5).

IPCC(2013)

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ThereissJllhope

•  TheConferenceoftheparJesisthesupremebodyoftheunitedNaJonsFrameworkConvenJononClimatechange(UNFCCC).

ConferenceoftheParJes(COP)

COP3KyotoJapanAnnex1countriesreduceemissionsby6-8%(USA7%)below1990levels.ClintonsingsbutCongressdoesnotraJfy.

COP1Berlin,Germany

COP15Copenhagen,DenmarkMajorissuesareavoidedandpushedintothefuture.

COP6–BonnGermany,GeorgeBushRejectsKyotoprotocolandUSAdoesnotparJcipateinnegoJaJons.

COP20Lima,PeruCallforclimateacJon(192countries)Laidgroundworkforabindingagreement.

COP21Paris,FranceAnewinternaJonalagreementonclimateapplicabletoallcountrieswiththeaimofkeepingglobalwarmingbelow2˚C.

COP18Doha,QatarAmendmentoftheKyotoProtocol2ndcommitment

20121995 19972001

2009 20142015

TimelineofsignificantCOPmeeJngoutcomes

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189CountriesCommiqed

•  Keepglobaltemperaturesbelow2˚C(opJmisJcally1.5˚C)•  LimittheamountofGHG’stowhattheEarthcanabsorbnaturally.•  TorevieweachcountriescontribuJontocu~ngemissionsevery5

years.•  Richcountrieshelppoorercountries.•  OpenforsignaJonandadopJoninNewYorkfrom22April2016to

21stApril2017.•  Willcomeintoforceonce55countriescovering55%oftheglobal

emissionshaveagreedtoit.

HOW?

•  Cropsforcarboncapture?–  1/3oftotalarablelandontheplanet.1/3landintheU.S.–  Lossofterrestrialspeciesperhapsworsethanclimatechangeitself.

•  Plowingbiocharintoagriculturalplots?–  Earthsalbedowouldbedecreased–  AddpulverizedreflecJvercocklikesilicatetooffsetthis–  Tocut12%ofemissionswouldtake45%oftheEarthslandsurface.

–  HugeenvironmentalimpliaJonsasaresultoftheminingnottomenJonhugecosts($60Trillion).

•  OceanferJlizaJonwithIrontoincreaseitsabiitytostorecarbon?–  UnintendedconsequencestoMarineLife

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TheTargetMustBeZero•  LongertermsealevelriseimpactswillconJnuewellpasteh21st

century.•  Asmuchas1/3ofemissionscouldbecutbystoppingdeforestaJon.•  Renewablepower

ThankYou

AnyQuesJons