the centre for australian weather and climate research a partnership between csiro and the bureau of...
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010:Selected Highlights
Presenter: Gary DietachmayerWGNE-26
Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Overview – riding instructions
From your perspective do you seek or can you provide some advice to other groups? Is there a need for a workshop on an issue that WGNE should be involved in? Are there any new concrete projects that would benefit from a group effort that WGNE can support?
We have shortened the time for each report to 20 minutes including questions ………….. This means that we do not expect a full report on what happened at your centre in the last 12 months.
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Overview
• New Supercomputers
• Drove some timelines
• CMIP5 related activities
• Major activity
• NWP (high-res) / SREP (grey-zone????)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Supercomputer
• Combined bid with BoM and CSIRO/ANU/NCI
• ‘Solar’ (BoM-HO) and ‘vayu’ (ANU)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Supercomputer (NEC SX6 – Solar)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Supercomputer (vayu)
• 1492 nodes
• Each of two quad-core Nehalem CPUs
• Peak theoretical performance of approximately 140TFlops.
• Total of 37TB of RAM on compute nodes
• Approx 800 TBytes of usable global storage • (very) loose division: Solar for
NWP, (fraction of vayu, approx 1,000 cores) for climate
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Supercomputer (Solar timelines)
• Feb 09 Contract signed
• Jun 09 Phase One: Initial system delivery.
• ….. resolution of a number of HW/SW issues …..
• 30 May 10 Phase Two: Full system ready for production use.
• 22 Jun 10 Oracle and BoM declare system ready for operational use.
• 29 Jun 10 NMOC declares the core ACCESS NWP suite operational on Solar.
• 31 Aug 10 NMOC software suites operational on Solar, NEC decommissioned.
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
CMIP5/CLIMATE (models)
• CSIRO Mk3.6 AOGCM
• Existing global AOGCM
• CMIP5 long term only
• Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (C-CAM)
• Existing RCM – CAWCR is currently reviewing its RCM capability
• CORDEX• Two African simulations• One by McGregor at al., CAWCR/CSIRO• One by collaborators at Univ. Pretoria.
• Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)
• New global AOGCM/ESM
• CMIP5 long term initially
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6)• Features:
• Atmosphere: Grid T63 (1.875 x 1.875); 18 levels - hybrid sigma,p
• Ocean: MOM2.2 code; Grid 0.94 NS x 1.875 EW; 31 levels
• Interactive aerosol treatment – sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust and sea salt
• Upgraded radiation scheme, upgraded (non-local) PBL scheme
• Anthropogenic aerosol impact on Australian rainfall
• Shadings indicate significance at the 5% and the 1% level
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
Control 500 yr 1 Completed 450/500 70% delivered
Historical 1850-2005 10
AMIP 1970-2008 10
Mid-Holocene 100 yr 1 Completed 370/400 0% delivered
RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 2006-2100 10 5 yrs remaining on E10 25% delivered
1%/yr CO2 to 4x 140 1
AGCM + control SSTs 30 1
AGCM + control SSTs + 4x CO2 30 1
4x CO2 150 + 5 1+11
AGCM + control SSTs + AA 30 1
AGCM + control SSTs + SA 30 1
Historical (natural) 1850-2005 10
Historical (GHGs) 1850-2005 10 75% delivered
Historical (anthropogenic) 1850-2005 10 50% delivered
Historical (all except ozone) 1850-2005 10 0% delivered
Historical (all except AA) 1850-2005 10 50% delivered
Historical (AA) 1850-2005 10 50% delivered
Historical (Asian aerosols) 1850-2005 10 Completed 60/156 0% delivered
CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
• Atmosphere: UKMO UM Grid N96 (1.875 x 1.25); 38 levels
• Sea Ice: CICE 4 Grid 1.0 x 1.0, enhanced tropical; 46 levels
• Coupler: OASIS 3.2.5 or 4
• Ocean: “AusCOM” MOM 4p1
• Land surface/carbon cycle: “CABLE” (Kowalczyk et al. 2006) + CASA-CNP + LPJ dynamic vegetation
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
• For AR5 timeline, AOGCM only
• Status
• Components coupled and numerous centennial-length simulations performed
• Now have two versions • Atmosphere – HadGEM2 settings (much delayed)• Atmosphere – proto-HadGEM3 settings + modifications
• Extensive evaluation underway
• Resources
• New NCI machine (share ~1,000 cores)
• 6 coupled simulations in parallel at 4 years per day
• should be adequate to perform “core” experiments in 4 months
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
Version with HadGEM2 atmosphere
Version with proto-HadGEM3 atmosphere
ΔSST (model – obs) (K)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
• Aims for AR5 (as early as possible 2011)
• All “core” long term CMIP5 simulations
• Consider select “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” if time
• Aims for CMIP5 subsequent to AR5
• Tier 1 and Tier 2 expanded set
• ESM participation (include carbon cycle)
• CFMIP (?)
• Transpose-AMIP (?)
• Potential – CMIP5 short term decadal
• Potential – CMIP5 atmospheric chemistry
• Potential if Univ. collaboration – PMIP
• Model output
• Post-processing using CMOR; hosted at NCI ESG node/gateway
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (APS0 timelines)“APS0”:
• Replicates legacy domains
• G – Global (80km)• R – Regional (38km)• T – Tropical (38km)• A – Australian Meso (12km)• C – City (5km)• TC – Tropical Cyclone (12km)
• G, R, T went operational Sept/Oct 2009 on NEC-SX6• Solar declared operational June-22 2010
• G, R, T, A – June-29• C operational – August-12• Last forecasts from GASP, LAPS, TXLAPS, MesoLAPS, MALAPS – August-17• NEC-SX6 shutdown – August-31• Not yet operational – TC, UM-based-Ozone
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (APS0 G Verification)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (APS0 R/T/A verification)
• MSLP• S1 (upper)• RMS (middle)• Bias (lower)
• Sep-2009 to Aug-2010 (R, T)
• Nov-2009 to Aug-2010 (A)
• Up to 72hr (R, T)• Up to 48hr (A)
LAPS, ACCESS-R TXLAPS, ACCESS-T MesoLAPS, MALAPS, ACCESS-A
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C)
• “Tropical” city systems (Brisbane, Sydney) crashed often in development
• Signal was localised run-away vertical-velocities
• Resistant to UM targeted-diffusion
• Were using UKMO 4km system parameters, but for now “old” model (v6.4)
• “Grey zone” issue???
• Experiment with convective-settings• Change CAPE-closure from “Grid-box-area scaled” to “vertical-velocity
dependent”• Stronger coupling between developing instability and stabilising action of parameterised
convection
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C)
• Change stabilises and (probably) improves rainfall accuracy
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-TC)
• ACCESS-TC close to complete
• Assim/Forecast components in place, number of promising studies for NH and SH TCs
• Post-processing/diagnostic tools being finalised
• Addition of TC-bogus to other ACCESS systems
• Should be ready for Aus TC season
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (APS1 - Domains)
APS0:• Replicates legacy domains
APS1:• No 0.375o equivalent• N320 global, some
experimentation with N512• Meso domain now focussed
on ACCESS-R replacement• No TXLAPS equivalent ??• L50 -> L70
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
ACCESS-NWP (APS1 – Model/Assim)
• “Catch-up”: move from UM 6.4 to 7.5• Re-examine model issues from APS0
• Convection / Precipitation for “C” (and “R-12” !), particularly in (semi) tropics• Grey-Zone Project ???
• (Very) large velocities at top-of-model in “R”, feeding into “C”.
• New/extended satellite data• IASI, NOAA-19 ATOVS, GPS-RO, hourly AMVs• SSMI/S out of scope for APS1, high-priority for APS2
• Improved background error specification for ACCESS-R12
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project)
• “Catch-up • CAWCR: Improve the underlying science to assimilate radar data into the Bureau’s NWP models
• OEB: Install 4 new radars
• (Eventual) Replacement for city based systems
• 5km → ~2km
• 00 & 12Z → 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, ….
• Assimilation• In situ obs & satellite• Doppler winds• Precipitation
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project)
• Sydney 1.5km resolution ‘test-bed’.
• Focus is very much on DA, but some model development/evaluation is budgeted for.
Milestones Date
Activity 1: Development and assessment of meso-scale NWP systems over Australia
Task 1.1 Test UM at ~2km Jul 2010 – Oct 2010
Run Case studies run for test-bed
Report on case studies Oct 2010
Task 1.2 Test UM+3dVAR at ~2km Nov 2010 – Sep 2011
Case studies run for Sydney and/or Brisbane
Presentation of case studies Mar 2011
• Will have 5km and 1.5km models running over similar domain
• “Grey Zone” project???
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
A Grey Lunch
• Some Australian perspectives on the morning discussion ……
• ECMWF global resolution = Australian-Meso resolution
• Martin’s global grey-zone is our Meso
• UKV style “jump-across” grey-zone probably not feasible for us – Aus domain is too large
• Conclusion – we should be supportive here
• Nice words, or contribution?
• Don’t currently have CRM/LES capability, nor world’s largest SC.
• Possibilities ….
• Do some of the simulations at the coarse-end (liase with UK?)
• Contribute to some of the analysis
• In-house
• In collaboration with Uni-sector via ACCESS? (*)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
MBM (My Burridge Moment ……. with apologies to Dave)
• Perhaps this is a uniquely Aussie affliction, but the R&D branch of the Australian “Operational Centre” is very different now to five years ago.
• CAWCR has responsibility for both NWP & Climate R&D.
• Already have UK-based unified systems for NWP & Climate, will slowly move to include RCM, SP, etc under this framework.
• An NWP scientist who might have been deployed to, say, high-res AMIP, can now be deployed directly to, say, help tuning of the coupled system for CMIP5 – which of those activities has the higher profile?
• Take home story: the “pitch” as to why an “operational centre” might want to join a project may vary significantly from OC to OC.