the challenges in transport development and connectivity in developing … · 2018-03-17 · a.s.m....
TRANSCRIPT
The Challenges in Transport
Development and Connectivity in
Developing Countries
Junyi ZHANG, Prof. Dr. Eng.
Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab
IDEC, Hiroshima University
http://home.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/~zjy/
Keynote Speech at the 20th FSTPT Symposium &
the 1st ISTSDC, Makassar, Indonesia, Nov 4, 2017
Junyi Zhang
My research interests
2
Life-oriented
Approach for
Regional and Urban
Planning
Integrated Regional
and Urban Models
Sustainable
Regional and Urban
Development
Research topics: Interdisciplinary
42%
43% 15%
Junyi Zhang
My views on transport
3
mobilities
capitals
information
things
human
Time
Space
Zhang J & Feng C-M (2017) Introduction: Transport in Asia. In: Zhang J &
Feng C-M (eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 1.
Junyi Zhang
My views on transport
4
Development of life-oriented approach for regional/urban/transport policiesTheory
Inter-discipline
Single discipline
Travel behavior
Life choices
Transport policy
Public policy
Cro
ss-Secto
r
Hierarchical scheme
Integrated scheme
Urbanpolicy
Trip-based approach
Trip chaining approach
Practice
Life-oriented approach
Activity-based approach
Tour-based approach
Sin
gle Secto
r
Junyi ZHANG, Veronique Van Acker (2017) Life-oriented travel behavior
research: An overview. Transportation Research Part A (forthcoming)
Junyi Zhang
My views on transport systems
5
Resources
Population
Human Activities
Transport Demand
Services
Land Use
Transport Supply
Zhang J & Feng C-M (2017) Introduction: Transport in Asia. In: Zhang J &
Feng C-M (eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 1.
Junyi Zhang
My views on transport systems
6
Integration of regional/urban/transport developments with diverse sustainabilities
Junyi ZHANG (2013) Systematic and behavior-oriented approaches for sustainable urban and transport policies.
In: Akimasa FUJIWARA and Junyi ZHANG (eds.), Sustainable Transport Studies in Asia, Chapter 2. Springer.
Environmental simulation models
Evaluation model
Socio-economic models
Land use models
Ecosystem models Air pollution dispersion models
Transportation models
Environmental impacts assessment models
Environmental emission models
DR R
P
SI
Policy-making module
Law & institution
Economic measures Technology Enlightenment
Capacity building
C
Lifestyle
R
Means of policies
Low-carbon policy setD: Driving forces
P: Pressures
S: States
I: Impacts
R: Responses
C: Capacity
Capacity indicators QOL indicatorsAir quality indicators Ecosystem indicatorsISC
Energy
system
Forecastin
g
Back
-casting
SoP
Specificatio
n o
f policies (S
oP
)
Transportation
system
Technology
developmentUrban form ……
Pro
vid
e policy
optio
ns
Explo
re
policy o
ptio
ns
Junyi Zhang
Background of Transportation
Development in Asia
• Urbanization: rapid growth in general, but decline in Japan
• A continuing car-dependent trend: still very strong
• Problematic development issues: unbalanced within-country
development in Asia is serious; urban development is often done in an
unplanned manner; transport-based social exclusion issues
• Disexternalities of transportation development: traffic congestion,
accidents, air pollution, social exclusion,
• Major issues of transportation infrastructure and services: lack of
(better, integrated) planning, rapid growth of travel demand, slow
development of transportation networks, bad travel management, …
• Emerging threats and opportunities– Threats: Climate change impacts (extreme weather, sea level rise,
flooding, storm surge,…), selective migration due to globalization, …
– Opportunities: regional integration/cooperation, IoT, AI, shared
economy…
7Zhang J & Feng C-M (2017) Introduction: Transport in Asia. In: Zhang J &
Feng C-M (eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 1.
Cross-border transport in Asia
Asian Highway
Trans-Asia Railway Network
Great Mekong Region
Cross-border connectivity
Junyi Zhang
Transport Systems in Asia
9
Item Data
Number of countries linked by Asian Highway: 32
Number of countries party to
the Asian Highway Agreement:
29
Total length (km): 142,804
Number of routes: 47
The idea of developing
regional road and rail
networks in Asia was
initiated in the 1950s by
the United Nations
Economic Commission
for Asia and the Far East
(ECAFE), the forerunner
of the present United
Nations Economic and
Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific
(ESCAP).
Asian Highway (AH) Network
A.S.M. Abdul QUIUM (2017) The Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway
networks: origins, progress of development and prospects in the future. In:
Zhang J & Feng C-M (eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 3.
Logistics/Trade/Tourism…
Junyi Zhang
Transport Systems in Asia
10
Criteria for
including specific
links into AH and
TAR networks
- Capital-to-capital
links
- Connections to
main industrial and
agricultural centres
- Connections to
major sea and
river ports
- Connections to
major container
terminals and
depots
A.S.M. Abdul QUIUM (2017) The Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway
networks: origins, progress of development and prospects in the future. In:
Zhang J & Feng C-M (eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 3.
Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) Network
Logistics/Trade/Tourism…
Junyi Zhang
Transport Systems in Asia
11
Linking the AH and TAR Networks
• Recognizing the value of developing an Asian integrated
intermodal transport system with AH and TAR networks as its
two important building blocks, ESCAP took an initiative in 2010
to develop an intergovernmental agreement on dry ports.
Intermodal
interfaces such
as dry ports
and inland
container
depots
TAR Network
AH Network
Waterways
A.S.M. Abdul QUIUM (2017) The Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway
networks: origins, progress of development and prospects in the future. In:
Zhang J & Feng C-M (eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 3.
Junyi Zhang
Trans-Asian Transport Network
Missing: Cross-border waterways
e.g., Mekong River
12
Zhang J & Feng C-M (2017)
Introduction: Transport in Asia.
In: Zhang J & Feng C-M (eds),
Routledge Handbook of
Transport in Asia, Chapter 1.
Logistics/Trade/Tourism…
Junyi Zhang
China’s Belt and Road Initiative
13
http://news.china.com.cn/2016-10/27/content_39582227.htm Trade/Logistics/Tourism/…
Intermodal connectivity
Junyi Zhang
Density does matter!
15
Junyi Zhang
First, density does matter!
16
Junyi Zhang
Density does matter!
17
Junyi Zhang
To reduce transfer!
18
Junyi Zhang
To connect stations/stops!
19
Hiroshima St.
Yokogawa St.
Nishi-Hiroshima St.
Omachi Station
Hakushima New St.
JR Sanyo Main Line
19
Hakushima New St.
To connect stations/stops!
To connect stations/stops!
Junyi Zhang
To connect stations/stops!
22
Relocation of Tram Terminal from Middle of Road to Station Forecourt
Yokogawa St.
To connect stations/stops!
Junyi Zhang
To connect walk to Skyrail – Railway
24
Junyi Zhang
Mutual use of
transport IC cards in Japan
25Source: https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B9%97%E8%BB%8A%E3%82%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%83%89
To connect everyone with streets
Junyi Zhang
Intermodal Connectivity: Logistics
27
https://www.google.co.jp/search?q=connectivity+in+transport&tbm=isch&tbs=rimg:CbBXGjidbSCVIjjWdLHBf55wc85Aw
UBmGwpG5pzCpAcVmgzXqF9j3ee-uGbhdTv0o-
BHvmws2lD2xQ1l8riVJVMELioSCdZ0scF_1nnBzEWPQuPmJC5mbKhIJzkDBQGYbCkYRIVdUsevR21IqEgnmnMKkBx
WaDBEWLCWxMt9RuioSCdeoX2Pd5764ESWvEC0P2cxeKhIJZuF1O_1Sj4EcRfjH1g2SSFW0qEgm-bCzaUPbFDRH-
CV-_1SwFuDyoSCWXyuJUlUwQuEcEjMeHLfYJc&tbo=u&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi-
uM6h9ujWAhWCwrwKHYz8CygQ9C8IHw&biw=1474&bih=774&dpr=1.25#imgrc=4rEfmnTRb37nhM:
Junyi Zhang
Data issues about the connectivity
28
Source: http://www.famous-places.com/hai-phong-city-viet-nam/
Surveyed area: Companies of logistics services in Haiphong city
Time: September 21st to October 20th, 2013
Sample size: 160 shipments from 60 companies
Junyi Zhang
Data issues about the connectivity
29
Junyi Zhang
Data issues about the connectivity
30
High-speed Connectivity
High-speed railway
Junyi Zhang
To connect regions with high-
speed railways
32
High-speed railways in the mainland of China
Junyi Zhang
To connect regions with high-
speed railways
33
High-speed railways in Taiwan, China and South Korea
Junyi Zhang
To connect regions with high-
speed railways
34
High-speed railways in Japan
2,892 km
Impacts of Climate Change
on transportation networks
Vulnerable Connectivity
Junyi Zhang
Vulnerable Transport under
Natural Disasters
36
Junyi Zhang
Vulnerable Transport under
Natural Disasters in Asia
37
The Great East
Japan Earthquake
(GEJE) of March
11, 2011
Junyi Zhang
Vulnerable Transport under
Natural Disasters
38
Vulnerability due to
Natural Disasters
Junyi Zhang
Vulnerable Transport under
Natural Disasters
39
Dhaka
Chittagong
Cox Bazar
Barisal
Khulna
• For 2050, 38-year return level with
95% confidence interval: 1.80 meters.
• For 2080, 68-year return level with
95% confidence interval: 2.0 meters.
Connectivity: A bigger picture
To connect transport with …
Junyi Zhang41
Life-oriented (Behavioral) Approach
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A B C D E F G H I
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Family Life
A B C D E F G
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To connect transport with life
Junyi Zhang
To connect transport with land
use: EK in Japan
42
Nishifunabashi.St
Ueno.St
Nippori.St
Shinmatuso.St
Tokyo.St
Shinagawa.St
Shibuya.St
Shinjuku.StNishikokubunji.St
Urawa.St
Kawasaki.St
Ikebukuro.St
Chuo.line
Yamanote.line
Musashino.line
Soubu.line
Joban.lineSaikyo.line
During PhaseⅠ(1923~1945)
Rail: basic network completed (both central and suburban)Road: limited improvement
During PhaseⅡ(1955~1970)
Overlapped with rapid motorization.
Change from tram to subway inside from Yamanote.Line
Rail: Rail Improvement ≒ capacity expansion → shorten headway , double tracking, separation of freight / paxtrain tracks, increasing number of cars per train, etc.
Road: began extensive network construction,
Overlapped with rapid motorization
Tram network
Subwaynetwork
Before PhaseⅠ(~1920)
Outside from Yamanote.Line: Basic rail network were build
Inside from Yamanote.Line: Tram network
Purpose: Freight, Pilgrimage (Narita Mountain, etc.)
Keikyu.line
Tokyu.line
Keio.line
Odakyu.line
SeibuShinjuku.line
SeibuIkebukuro.line
TobuTojo.line
Keisei.line
housing
development area
43
David Perez Barbosa, Junyi ZHANG, Hajime Seya (2016) Effects of the Residential Environment on Health in Japan Linked with Travel Behavior. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13, 190; doi:10.3390/ijerph13020190
To connect transport with
health
44
WifeHusband
Home Restaurant
Office
Factory
Time Eating-out
Shopping
In-home activity
Work
Supermarket
Trip
Space
Meeting
Work
In-homeActivity
Activity-basedconsumption
To connect transport with
energy
Junyi Zhang
Better transport governance:
To connect stakeholders
45
Zhang J (2017) Social Capacity Building for Environmental Management
Related to Transport Sector: A Broader Perspective. In: Zhang J & Feng C-M
(eds), Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, Chapter 1.