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Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine! Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age An Introduction to Crazy Times 03.12.2004

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Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine! Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age An Introduction to Crazy Times 03.12.2004. The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security. Jobs New Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Tom Peters’

Re-Imagine!Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age

An Introduction to Crazy Times03.12.2004

Page 2: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

The Change Tsunami

Jobs Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting &

Security

Page 3: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Jobs New Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting &

Security

Page 4: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

The Perfect (Jobs) Storm

Off-shoringWC Automation

Reluctance to hire

Page 5: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Behind Surging Productivity: The Service

Sector Delivers. Firms Once Thought Immune to

Boosting Worker Output Are Now Big Part of the Trend” —

Headline/WSJ/11.03

Page 6: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“As Economy Gains,

Outsourcing Surges” —Headline/Boston Globe/11.03

Page 7: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“In a global economy, the government cannot give

anybody a guaranteed success story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of

their own lives.” —WJC, from Philip Bobbitt,

The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

Page 8: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“14 MILLION service jobs are in

danger of being shipped overseas” —

The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB

study

Page 9: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

1 in 10 tech jobs headed offshore by

end of 2004.

Source: Gartner Group/06.03

Page 10: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Is Your Job Going Abroad?” —Time/Cover/03.04

Page 11: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate” —Headline/USA Today/02.04

Page 12: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“A new suspect emerges in hunt for missing U.S.

jobs” —Headline/FT/02.17.04/on small business

off-shoring

Page 13: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“One Singaporean worker costs as much as …

3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”

Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03

Page 14: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Thaksinomics” (after Taksin Shinawatra, PM)/ “Bangkok

Fashion City”/ “managed asset reflation” (add to brand value of

Thai textiles by demonstrating flair and design excellence)

Source: The Straits Times/03.04.2004

Page 15: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy

jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always

sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped

workers in the face.” —Joseph Schumpeter

Page 16: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

--79% of U.S. jobs in “structurally changed professions” (“permanently eliminated jobs”)(40K of 160K U.S. IBM)

--”As we trade we release more labor from the service sector because our highly skilled and highly paid workers lose their competitive advantage. So we go to the next big thing. We specialize in innovation. We develop new products and start new industries.” (Erica Groshen, labor economist Fed of NY)

Source: CNN/Money/01.07.2004

Page 17: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“There is no job that is America’s God-given right

anymore.” —Carly Fiorina/ HP/

01.08.2004

Page 18: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Either we modernize or we will be modernized by the unremitting force of the markets.” —Gerhard Schroeder

Page 19: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH

THEMSELVES?” —Headline/

Fortune/ 11.03 (“We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity

rather than anxiety.”)

Page 20: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.” —Anthony Muh,

head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management

“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like

irrelevance even less.” —General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff,

U. S. Army

Page 21: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“A bureaucrat is an expensive

microchip.”Dan Sullivan, consultant and

executive coach

Page 22: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

E.g. …

Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in

3 years.

Source: BW (01.28.02)

Page 23: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Unless mankind redesigns itself by changing our DNA through altering our genetic

makeup, computer-generated robots will take

over the world.” – Stephen

Hawking, in the German magazine Focus

Page 24: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“What strategic motto will dominate this transition from nation-state to market-state? If the slogan that animated the

liberal, parliamentary nation-states was ‘make the world safe for democracy,’ what

will the forthcoming motto be? Perhaps ‘making the world available,’ which is to say creating new worlds of choice and protecting the autonomy of persons to

choose.” —Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

Page 25: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“better material welfare” vs. “maximize the opportunity of its

people” —Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles:

War, Peace, and the Course of History

Page 26: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Jobs Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting &

Security

Page 27: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

<1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift

1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s

2000: 10 years for paradigm shift

21st century: 1000X tech

change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it

represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)

Ray Kurzweil

Page 28: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Vernor Vinge/Mr. Singularity

“The transition time from human history to post-human singularity

time, Vinge thinks, will be astonishingly short—maybe one

hundred hours from the first moment of computer self-

awareness to computer world conquest.”—Esquire/12.2002

Page 29: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“We found that the pace of development from one societal type to another is

accelerating. The agricultural society originated 10,000 years ago, the industrial

society between 200 and 100 years ago, the information-based society 20 years ago.” —

Rolf Jensen/The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business

Page 30: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”

Matt Ridley, Genome

Page 31: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the

sum total of all human knowledge on a personal

device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical

Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]

Page 32: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“A California biotechnology company has put the entire

sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing

researchers to conduct on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a

human being in a single experiment.” —Page 3, Financial Times/10.03.2003

Page 33: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Sequenom/David Ewing Duncan/Wired11.02

“Sequenom has industrialized the SNP [single nucleotide polymorphisms] identification

process.” “This, I’m told, is the first time a healthy human has ever been screened for the

full gamut of genetic-disease markers.” “On the horizon: multi-disease gene kits, available at Wal*Mart, as easy to use as home-pregnancy tests.” “You can’t look at humanity separate from machines; we’re so intertwined we’re

almost the same species, and the difference is getting smaller.”

Page 34: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Help! There’s nobody in the cockpit. In the future, will the

airlines no longer need pilots?”

Grumman Global Hawk/ 24 hours/ Edwards to South

Australia

Source: The Economist/12.21.2002

Page 35: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“There’s going to be a fundamental change in the

global economy unlike anything we have had since the cavemen began bartering.”

Arnold Baker, Chief Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

Page 36: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now it’s a technology company

with trucks.” —Forbes, upon naming UPS

“Company of the Year” in Y2000

Page 37: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Jobs Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting &

Security

Page 38: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Historically, smart people have always turned to where the money was. Today, money is turning to

where the smart people are.” —FT/06.03.03

Page 39: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The World Must Learn to Live with

a Wide-awake China” —Headline/FT/11.03

Page 40: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Asia’s rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it

will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and,

subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end.”

—Financial Times (09.22.2003)

Page 41: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where

nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been

integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people.” —Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004

Page 42: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Cost of a Programmer, per IBM …

China: $12.50 per hourUSA: $56 per hour

Source: WSJ/01.19.2004

Page 43: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

China Roars!

Page 44: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goods—and the

rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. …

China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it

represents an even greater opportunity via production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become

the new engine of global growth.”Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in “China Takes

Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 45: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of

Total Global Growth in 2002.

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 46: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in

foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico,

15% in Korea.

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 47: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned

firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private

employ.

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 48: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing

privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home

(vs. 61% in Japan)

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 49: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

200 cities with >1,000,000 population.

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 50: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

200,000,000 unemployed; must create 20,000,000 jobs per year

to offset layoffs; 400,000,000 elderly Chinese by 2030

(currently no pension funds).

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 51: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

397,000,000 fixed phone

lines = 90X since 1989.

Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 52: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%:

DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs,

PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes

Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Page 53: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“When the Chinese Consumer Is King:

America’s mass market is second to none.

Someday it will just be second.” —Headline, New York Times/12.14.2003

Page 54: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“As China becomes the world’s factory and Flextronics becomes

the biggest electronics manufacturer in China, policy makers and analysts wonder

whether there will be a future for manufacturing in Singapore, Malaysia, North America or

Europe.” —Asia Inc./02.2004

Page 55: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Going Global: Flush with billions in foreign reserves,

China is embarking on a buying spree” —Cover/ Newsweek/ 03.01.04/ on

China’s aggressive offshore acquisition activity (buying brands,

technology, etc.)

Page 56: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13%

(2X since1991)

Source: New York Times/12.14.2003

Page 57: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“America, like everyone else, must get used to being a loser as well as a gainer in the global economy. In the end, the

21st century is unlikely to be the American Century.” —“When the Chinese Consumer Is King”/New

York Times/12.14.2003. “The notion that God intended Americans to be permanently

wealthier than the rest of the world, that gets less and less likely as time

goes on.” —Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics/New York Times/12.14.2003

Page 58: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

In Store: International Equality, Intranational Inequality

“The new organization of society implied by the triumph of individual autonomy and the true equalization of opportunity based upon merit will lead to very great

rewards for merit and great individual autonomy. This will leave individuals far more responsible for

themselves than they have been accustomed to being during the industrial period. It will also reduce the

unearned advantage in living standards that has been enjoyed by residents of advanced industrial societies

throughout the 20th century.”

James Davidson & William Rees-Mogg,The Sovereign Individual

Page 59: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“INDIA—The Next Manufacturing Hub?” —Asia Inc./02.04

Page 60: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“With a Small Car, India Takes Big Step Onto Global Stage” —Headline, p. 1, WSJ, 02.05.2004

Page 61: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Indian GDP/1990-2002: Ag, 34% to 21%; services,

40% to 56%

Source: The Economist/02.04

Page 62: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Level 5 (top) ranking/Carnegie Mellon

Software Engineering Institute: 35 of 70

companies in world are from India

Source: Wired/02.04

Page 63: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“GE is a champion of India’s scientists, technicians, business analysts and

graduates, thousands of whom work at the U.S. conglomerate’s offshore service centers in India. They are the low-cost,

high capability vanguard of GE’s outsourcing to India. Along the way, GE

has transformed its cost structure, enhanced its ability to provide technology services and incubated a rare world-class

industry in India.” —FT/06.03.03

Page 64: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The Americans’ self-image that this tech thing was their private preserve is over. This is a wake-up call for U.S.

workers to redouble their efforts at education and research. If they do

that, it will spur a whole new cycle of innovation, and we’ll both win. If we each pull down our shutters, we will

both lose.” —Indian software exec to Tom Friedman (NYT/03.04)

Page 65: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Forget India, Let’s Go to Bulgaria” —Headline,

BW/03.04, re SAP, BMW, Siemens et al. “near-shoring”

Page 66: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“CLONING COLLEGE: South Korea’s

biomedical researchers, unhampered by politics, do world-class research

on the cheap” —Headline,

Newsweek/03.01.04

Page 67: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Jobs Technology

Globalization

War, Warfighting & Security

Page 68: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“We are at a pivotal point in history. … We are at one of a half dozen turning points that have fundamentally changed

the way societies are organized for governance.” —Philip Bobbitt, The Shield

of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

Page 69: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“September 11 amounts to World War III—the third

great totalitarian challenge to open societies in the last

100 years.” —Thomas Friedman/NYT/01.08.2004

Page 70: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The world’s new dimension (computers, Internet, globalization,

instantaneous communication, widely available instruments of mass

destruction and so on) amounts to a new metaphysics that, by empowering

individual zealots or agitated tribes with unappeasable grievances, makes the world unstable and dangerous in

radically new ways.” —Lance Morrow/Evil

Page 71: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the

Twenty-first CenturyRobert Cooper (as interpreted by Tom Peters)

Page 72: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“This is a dangerous world and it is going to become more

dangerous.”

“We may not be interested in chaos but chaos is interested

in us.”

Source: Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

Page 73: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“What happened after 1945 was not so much a radically new system as the concentration and culmination of the old

one.” —Robert Cooper, on the Cold War, from The

Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

Page 74: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“What has been emerging into the daylight since 1989 is not a

rearrangement of the old system but a new system. Behind this lies

a new form of statehood, or at least states that are behaving in a

radically different way from the past.” —Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order

and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

Page 75: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The image of peace and order through a single hegemonic power center [is

wrong]. … It was not the empires but the small states that proved to be a dynamic

force in the world. Empires are ill-designed for promoting change. Holding

an empire together requires an authoritarian political style; innovation

leads to instability.” —Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first

Century

Page 76: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Read This!

Page 77: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The new century risks being overrun by both anarchy and technology. The two great destroyers of history may reinforce each other. Both the spread of terrorism and that of weapons of mass destruction point to a world in which

Western governments are losing control. The spread of the technology of mass destruction represents a potentially massive redistribution of power

away from the advanced industrial (and democratic) states and toward smaller states that may be less stable and have less of a stake in an orderly world; or more dramatically still, it may represent a redistribution of power

away from the state itself and towards individuals, that is to say terrorists or criminals. In the past to be damaging, an ideological movement had to be

widespread to recruit enough support to take on authority. Henceforth, comparatively small groups will be able to do the sort of damage which

before only state armies or major revolutionary movements could achieve. A few fanatics with a ‘dirty bomb’ or biological weapons will be able to cause

death on a scale not previously envisaged. … Emancipation, diversity, global communication—all of the things that promise an age of riches and creativity—could also bring a nightmare in which states lose control of the means of

violence and people lose control of their futures.”—Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

Page 78: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Reflect.

Page 79: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The two systems—the modern based on balance

and the post-modern based on openness—do not co-

exist well together.” —Robert Cooper,

The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

Page 80: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Before we can talk about the security requirements for today

and tomorrow, we have to forget the security rules of yesterday.” —Robert Cooper, The

Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

Page 81: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“IT MAY SOMEDAY BE SAID THAT THE 21ST CENTURY BEGAN ON SEPTEMBER 11, 2001. …

“Al-Qaeda represents a new and profoundly dangerous kind of

organization—one that might be called a ‘virtual state.’ On September 11 a virtual

state proved that modern societies are vulnerable as never before.”—Time/09.09.2002

Page 82: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The deadliest strength of America’s new adversaries is their very fluidity, Defense Secretary Donald

Rumsfeld believes. Terrorist networks, unburdened by fixed borders, headquarters or conventional forces, are

free to study the way this nation responds to threats and adapt themselves to prepare for what Mr. Rumsfeld is certain will be another attack. …

“ ‘Business as usual won’t do it,’ he said. His answer is to develop swifter, more lethal ways

to fight. ‘Big institutions aren’t swift on their feet in adapting but rather ponderous and clumsy

and slow.’ ”—The New York Times/09.04.2002

Page 83: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

From: Weapon v. Weapon

To: Org structure v. Org structure

Page 84: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Our military structure today is essentially one

developed and designed by Napoleon.”

Admiral Bill Owens, former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Page 85: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The organizations we created have become tyrants. They have taken

control, holding us fettered, creating barriers that hinder rather than help our businesses. The lines that we drew on our neat organizational diagrams have turned into walls

that no one can scale or penetrate or even peer over.” —Frank Lekanne Deprez &

René Tissen, Zero Space: Moving Beyond Organizational Limits.

Page 86: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“In an era when terrorists use satellite

phones and encrypted email, US gatekeepers stand armed against them with pencils

and paperwork, and archaic computer systems that don’t

talk to each other.”Boston Globe (09.30.2001)

Page 87: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Dawn Meyerreicks, CTO of the Defense Information Systems Agency, made one of the most fateful military calls of the 21st century. After 9/11 … her office

quickly leased all the available transponders covering Central Asia. The implications should change everything about U.S. military thinking in the

years ahead.

“The U.S. Air Force had kicked off its fight against the Taliban with an ineffective bombing campaign, and Washington was anguishing over whether to send in a few Army divisions. Donald Rumsfeld told Gen. Tommy Franks to

give the initiative to 250 Special Forces already on the ground. They used satellite phones, Predator surveillance drones, and GPS- and laser-based

targeting systems to make the air strikes brutally effective.

“In effect, they ‘Napsterized’ the battlefield by cutting out the middlemen (much of the military’s command and control) and working directly with the

real players. … The data came in so fast that HQ revised operating procedures to allow intelligence analysts and attack planners to work directly

together. Their favorite tool, incidentally, was instant messaging over a secure network.”—Ned Desmond/“Broadband’s New Killer App”/Business

2.0/ OCT2002

Page 88: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“The mechanical speed of combat vehicles has not

increased since Rommel’s day, so the difference is all in the

operational speed, faster communications and faster

decisions.” —Edward Luttwak, on the unprecedented pace of the move toward Baghdad

Page 89: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“If early soldiers idealized Napoleon or Patton, network-centric warriors

admire Wal*Mart, where point-of-sale scanners share information on a near real-time basis with suppliers and also produce data that is mined to help leaders develop new strategic or tactical plans. Wal*Mart is an example of translating information into

competitive advantage.”—Tom Stewart, Business 2.0

Page 90: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

The New Infantry Battalion/New York Times/12.01.2002

“Pentagon’s Urgent Search for Speed.” 270 soldiers (1/3rd normal complement); 140 robotic off-road armored trucks. “Every soldier is a

sensor.” “Revolutionary capabilities.” Find-to-hit: 45 minutes to 15 minutes

… in just one year.

Page 91: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Armies are like plants, immobile, firm-rooted, nourished through

long stems to the head” … guerillas: “might be a vapour;”

fighting guerillas “like eating soup with a knife”

Source: T.E. Lawrence

Page 92: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

Eric’s Army

Flat.Fast.Agile.Adaptable.Light … But Lethal.Talent/ “I Am an Army of One.”Info-intense.Network-centric.

Page 93: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“Float like a butterfly.

Sting like a bee.” —Ali

Page 94: The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs  Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

“To fight terrorism with an army is like trying to

shoot a cloud of mosquitoes with a

machine gun.” —Review of Terror in the Name

of God/NYT/11.2003

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“Rather than have massive armies that people can go along and

inspect, it is now about having rapidly deployable expediency forces that can be dropped by

land, sea or air and with full support.” —MoD official, on Defense Secretary Geoff

Hoon’s defense white paper (12.2003)

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“We must not only transform our armed forces but the Defense Department that serves them—

by encouraging a culture of creativity and intelligent risktaking. We must promote a more entrepreneurial approach: one that encourages

people to be proactive, not reactive, and to behave less like bureaucrats and more like

venture capitalists; one that does not wait for threats to emerge and be ‘validated,’ but rather

anticipates them before they appear and develops new capabilities to dissuade them and

deter them.” —Donald Rumsfeld, Foreign Affairs

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Boyd

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OODA Loop/Boyd Cycle“Unraveling the competition”/ Quick Transients/ Quick Tempo (NOT JUST

SPEED!)/ Agility/ “So quick it is disconcerting” (adversary over-reacts or under-reacts)/ “Winners used tactics that caused the enemy to unravel before the

fight” (NEVER HEAD TO HEAD)

BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

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“Fast Transients”

“Buttonhook turn” (YF16: “could flick from one maneuver to another faster than any aircraft”)

BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

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“Blitzkrieg is far more than lightning thrusts that most people think of

when they hear the term; rather it was all about high operational tempo

and the rapid exploitation of opportunity.”/ “Arrange the mind of

the enemy.”—T.E. Lawrence/ “Float like a butterfly, sting like a

bee.”—Ali

BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

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F86 vs. MiG/Korea/10:1

Bubble canopy (360 degree view)

Full hydraulic controls (“The F86 driver could go from one maneuver to another faster than the MiG driver”)

MiG: “faster in raw acceleration and turning ability”; F86: “quicker in

changing maneuvers”BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

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“Maneuverists”

BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

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Thunder Run/3rd Infantry Division/04.07.2004/”We wanted to

create as much chaos as possible.”—COL David Perkins/“Disorient and

demoralize”—DHR

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“Strategy meetings held once

or twice a year” to “Strategy meetings needed several

times a week”

Source: New York Times on Meg Whitman/eBay

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All Bets Are Off!

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“There will be more

confusion in the business world in the next decade than in any decade in history. And the current pace of

change will only accelerate.”Steve Case

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“We have no future because our present is too volatile.

We have only risk management. The spinning

of the given moment’s scenarios. Pattern

recognition.” —from William Gibson, Pattern Recognition

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“Save the date.” Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Swartz. Martha Stewart. Scott Sullivan. John Rigas. Walter

Forbes and Kirk Shelton. Frank Quattrone. Richard Scrushy. Misc.

Enronnies

Source: Headline/Business Day/NYT/01.08.2004

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“We are in a

brawl with no rules.”

Paul Allaire

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S.A.V.

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I Believe …

1. Change will accelerate. DRAMATICALLY.2. We will RE-INVENT THE WORLD IN THE NEXT TWO GENERATIONS. (Business … Health Care … Politics … War … Education … Fundamentals of Human Interaction.)

3. OPPORTUNITIES are matchless. 4. You are either … ON THE BUS … or … OFF THE BUS.5. I WANT TO PLAY! AND YOU?

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Successful Businesses’ Dozen Truths: TP’s 30-Year Perspective

1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent.2. Disrespect for Tradition.3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do.4. Utter Disbelief at the Bullshit that Marks “Normal Industry Behavior.”5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution … and Utter Contempt for Those Who Don’t “Get It.”6. Speed Demons.7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge.)8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy.9. Willingness to Lead the Customer … and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers.)10. “Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes.” 11. Courage to Stand Alone on One’s Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom.12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Brand Power.

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It is the foremost task—and responsibility—of our generation to

re-imagine our enterprises, private

and public. —from the Foreword, Re-imagine

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“How we feel about the evolving future tells us who we are as individuals and as a civilization: Do we search for stasis—a regulated, engineered world? Or do we embrace dynamism—a world of constant creation,

discovery and competition? Do we value stability and control? Or evolution and learning? Do we think that progress requires a central blueprint? Or do we see it as a decentralized, evolutionary process? Do we see mistakes as permanent disasters? Or the correctable

byproducts of experimentation? Do we crave predictability? Or relish surprise? These two poles,

stasis and dynamism, increasingly define our political, intellectual and cultural landscape.” —Virginia Postrel,

The Future and Its Enemies

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“Let’s compete—by training the best workers, investing in R & D,

erecting the best infrastructure and building an education system that graduates students who rank with the worlds best. Our goal is to be competitive with the best so we

both win and create jobs.” —Craig Barrett (Time/03.01.04)

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Age of AgricultureIndustrial Age

Age of Information IntensificationAge of Creation Intensification

Source: Murikami Teruyasu, Nomura Research Institute

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“The Creative Class derives its identity from its members’ roles as

purveyors of creativity. Because creativity is the driving force of economic growth, in terms of

influence the Creative Class has become the dominant class in

society.” —Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class (38M, 30%)

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The “Ownership Society” (GWB): “This is a bundle of proposals that treat

workers as self-reliant pioneers who rise through several employers and

careers. To thrive, these pioneers need survival tools. They need to own their own capital reserves, their retraining

programs, their own pensions and their own health insurance.” —David

Brooks/NYT/12.20.03

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“For Marx, the path to social betterment was through collective resistance of the proletariat to the economic injustices of the capitalist system

that produced such misshapenness and fragmentation. For Emerson, the key was to jolt individuals into realizing the untapped power of energy, knowledge, and creativity of which all

people, at least in principle, are capable. He too hated all systems of human oppression; but his central project, and the basis of his legacy, was to unchain individual minds.” —Lawrence Buell, Emerson