the chan g e tsunami jobs technology globalization war, warfighting & security
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Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine! Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age An Introduction to Crazy Times 03.12.2004. The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security. Jobs New Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Tom Peters’
Re-Imagine!Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age
An Introduction to Crazy Times03.12.2004
The Change Tsunami
Jobs Technology
Globalization War, Warfighting &
Security
Jobs New Technology
Globalization War, Warfighting &
Security
The Perfect (Jobs) Storm
Off-shoringWC Automation
Reluctance to hire
“Behind Surging Productivity: The Service
Sector Delivers. Firms Once Thought Immune to
Boosting Worker Output Are Now Big Part of the Trend” —
Headline/WSJ/11.03
“As Economy Gains,
Outsourcing Surges” —Headline/Boston Globe/11.03
“In a global economy, the government cannot give
anybody a guaranteed success story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of
their own lives.” —WJC, from Philip Bobbitt,
The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History
“14 MILLION service jobs are in
danger of being shipped overseas” —
The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB
study
1 in 10 tech jobs headed offshore by
end of 2004.
Source: Gartner Group/06.03
“Is Your Job Going Abroad?” —Time/Cover/03.04
“Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate” —Headline/USA Today/02.04
“A new suspect emerges in hunt for missing U.S.
jobs” —Headline/FT/02.17.04/on small business
off-shoring
“One Singaporean worker costs as much as …
3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”
Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03
“Thaksinomics” (after Taksin Shinawatra, PM)/ “Bangkok
Fashion City”/ “managed asset reflation” (add to brand value of
Thai textiles by demonstrating flair and design excellence)
Source: The Straits Times/03.04.2004
“The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy
jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always
sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped
workers in the face.” —Joseph Schumpeter
--79% of U.S. jobs in “structurally changed professions” (“permanently eliminated jobs”)(40K of 160K U.S. IBM)
--”As we trade we release more labor from the service sector because our highly skilled and highly paid workers lose their competitive advantage. So we go to the next big thing. We specialize in innovation. We develop new products and start new industries.” (Erica Groshen, labor economist Fed of NY)
Source: CNN/Money/01.07.2004
“There is no job that is America’s God-given right
anymore.” —Carly Fiorina/ HP/
01.08.2004
“Either we modernize or we will be modernized by the unremitting force of the markets.” —Gerhard Schroeder
“WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH
THEMSELVES?” —Headline/
Fortune/ 11.03 (“We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity
rather than anxiety.”)
“Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.” —Anthony Muh,
head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management
“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like
irrelevance even less.” —General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff,
U. S. Army
“A bureaucrat is an expensive
microchip.”Dan Sullivan, consultant and
executive coach
E.g. …
Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in
3 years.
Source: BW (01.28.02)
“Unless mankind redesigns itself by changing our DNA through altering our genetic
makeup, computer-generated robots will take
over the world.” – Stephen
Hawking, in the German magazine Focus
“What strategic motto will dominate this transition from nation-state to market-state? If the slogan that animated the
liberal, parliamentary nation-states was ‘make the world safe for democracy,’ what
will the forthcoming motto be? Perhaps ‘making the world available,’ which is to say creating new worlds of choice and protecting the autonomy of persons to
choose.” —Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History
“better material welfare” vs. “maximize the opportunity of its
people” —Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles:
War, Peace, and the Course of History
Jobs Technology
Globalization War, Warfighting &
Security
<1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift
1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s
2000: 10 years for paradigm shift
21st century: 1000X tech
change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it
represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)
Ray Kurzweil
Vernor Vinge/Mr. Singularity
“The transition time from human history to post-human singularity
time, Vinge thinks, will be astonishingly short—maybe one
hundred hours from the first moment of computer self-
awareness to computer world conquest.”—Esquire/12.2002
“We found that the pace of development from one societal type to another is
accelerating. The agricultural society originated 10,000 years ago, the industrial
society between 200 and 100 years ago, the information-based society 20 years ago.” —
Rolf Jensen/The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business
“I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”
Matt Ridley, Genome
“In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the
sum total of all human knowledge on a personal
device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical
Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]
“A California biotechnology company has put the entire
sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing
researchers to conduct on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a
human being in a single experiment.” —Page 3, Financial Times/10.03.2003
Sequenom/David Ewing Duncan/Wired11.02
“Sequenom has industrialized the SNP [single nucleotide polymorphisms] identification
process.” “This, I’m told, is the first time a healthy human has ever been screened for the
full gamut of genetic-disease markers.” “On the horizon: multi-disease gene kits, available at Wal*Mart, as easy to use as home-pregnancy tests.” “You can’t look at humanity separate from machines; we’re so intertwined we’re
almost the same species, and the difference is getting smaller.”
“Help! There’s nobody in the cockpit. In the future, will the
airlines no longer need pilots?”
Grumman Global Hawk/ 24 hours/ Edwards to South
Australia
Source: The Economist/12.21.2002
“There’s going to be a fundamental change in the
global economy unlike anything we have had since the cavemen began bartering.”
Arnold Baker, Chief Economist, Sandia National Laboratories
“UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now it’s a technology company
with trucks.” —Forbes, upon naming UPS
“Company of the Year” in Y2000
Jobs Technology
Globalization War, Warfighting &
Security
“Historically, smart people have always turned to where the money was. Today, money is turning to
where the smart people are.” —FT/06.03.03
“The World Must Learn to Live with
a Wide-awake China” —Headline/FT/11.03
“Asia’s rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it
will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and,
subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end.”
—Financial Times (09.22.2003)
“The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where
nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been
integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people.” —Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004
Cost of a Programmer, per IBM …
China: $12.50 per hourUSA: $56 per hour
Source: WSJ/01.19.2004
China Roars!
“China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goods—and the
rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. …
China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it
represents an even greater opportunity via production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become
the new engine of global growth.”Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in “China Takes
Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of
Total Global Growth in 2002.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in
foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico,
15% in Korea.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned
firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private
employ.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing
privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home
(vs. 61% in Japan)
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
200 cities with >1,000,000 population.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
200,000,000 unemployed; must create 20,000,000 jobs per year
to offset layoffs; 400,000,000 elderly Chinese by 2030
(currently no pension funds).
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
397,000,000 fixed phone
lines = 90X since 1989.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%:
DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs,
PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes
Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
“When the Chinese Consumer Is King:
America’s mass market is second to none.
Someday it will just be second.” —Headline, New York Times/12.14.2003
“As China becomes the world’s factory and Flextronics becomes
the biggest electronics manufacturer in China, policy makers and analysts wonder
whether there will be a future for manufacturing in Singapore, Malaysia, North America or
Europe.” —Asia Inc./02.2004
“Going Global: Flush with billions in foreign reserves,
China is embarking on a buying spree” —Cover/ Newsweek/ 03.01.04/ on
China’s aggressive offshore acquisition activity (buying brands,
technology, etc.)
World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13%
(2X since1991)
Source: New York Times/12.14.2003
“America, like everyone else, must get used to being a loser as well as a gainer in the global economy. In the end, the
21st century is unlikely to be the American Century.” —“When the Chinese Consumer Is King”/New
York Times/12.14.2003. “The notion that God intended Americans to be permanently
wealthier than the rest of the world, that gets less and less likely as time
goes on.” —Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics/New York Times/12.14.2003
In Store: International Equality, Intranational Inequality
“The new organization of society implied by the triumph of individual autonomy and the true equalization of opportunity based upon merit will lead to very great
rewards for merit and great individual autonomy. This will leave individuals far more responsible for
themselves than they have been accustomed to being during the industrial period. It will also reduce the
unearned advantage in living standards that has been enjoyed by residents of advanced industrial societies
throughout the 20th century.”
James Davidson & William Rees-Mogg,The Sovereign Individual
“INDIA—The Next Manufacturing Hub?” —Asia Inc./02.04
“With a Small Car, India Takes Big Step Onto Global Stage” —Headline, p. 1, WSJ, 02.05.2004
Indian GDP/1990-2002: Ag, 34% to 21%; services,
40% to 56%
Source: The Economist/02.04
Level 5 (top) ranking/Carnegie Mellon
Software Engineering Institute: 35 of 70
companies in world are from India
Source: Wired/02.04
“GE is a champion of India’s scientists, technicians, business analysts and
graduates, thousands of whom work at the U.S. conglomerate’s offshore service centers in India. They are the low-cost,
high capability vanguard of GE’s outsourcing to India. Along the way, GE
has transformed its cost structure, enhanced its ability to provide technology services and incubated a rare world-class
industry in India.” —FT/06.03.03
“The Americans’ self-image that this tech thing was their private preserve is over. This is a wake-up call for U.S.
workers to redouble their efforts at education and research. If they do
that, it will spur a whole new cycle of innovation, and we’ll both win. If we each pull down our shutters, we will
both lose.” —Indian software exec to Tom Friedman (NYT/03.04)
“Forget India, Let’s Go to Bulgaria” —Headline,
BW/03.04, re SAP, BMW, Siemens et al. “near-shoring”
“CLONING COLLEGE: South Korea’s
biomedical researchers, unhampered by politics, do world-class research
on the cheap” —Headline,
Newsweek/03.01.04
Jobs Technology
Globalization
War, Warfighting & Security
“We are at a pivotal point in history. … We are at one of a half dozen turning points that have fundamentally changed
the way societies are organized for governance.” —Philip Bobbitt, The Shield
of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History
“September 11 amounts to World War III—the third
great totalitarian challenge to open societies in the last
100 years.” —Thomas Friedman/NYT/01.08.2004
“The world’s new dimension (computers, Internet, globalization,
instantaneous communication, widely available instruments of mass
destruction and so on) amounts to a new metaphysics that, by empowering
individual zealots or agitated tribes with unappeasable grievances, makes the world unstable and dangerous in
radically new ways.” —Lance Morrow/Evil
The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the
Twenty-first CenturyRobert Cooper (as interpreted by Tom Peters)
“This is a dangerous world and it is going to become more
dangerous.”
“We may not be interested in chaos but chaos is interested
in us.”
Source: Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“What happened after 1945 was not so much a radically new system as the concentration and culmination of the old
one.” —Robert Cooper, on the Cold War, from The
Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“What has been emerging into the daylight since 1989 is not a
rearrangement of the old system but a new system. Behind this lies
a new form of statehood, or at least states that are behaving in a
radically different way from the past.” —Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order
and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“The image of peace and order through a single hegemonic power center [is
wrong]. … It was not the empires but the small states that proved to be a dynamic
force in the world. Empires are ill-designed for promoting change. Holding
an empire together requires an authoritarian political style; innovation
leads to instability.” —Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first
Century
Read This!
“The new century risks being overrun by both anarchy and technology. The two great destroyers of history may reinforce each other. Both the spread of terrorism and that of weapons of mass destruction point to a world in which
Western governments are losing control. The spread of the technology of mass destruction represents a potentially massive redistribution of power
away from the advanced industrial (and democratic) states and toward smaller states that may be less stable and have less of a stake in an orderly world; or more dramatically still, it may represent a redistribution of power
away from the state itself and towards individuals, that is to say terrorists or criminals. In the past to be damaging, an ideological movement had to be
widespread to recruit enough support to take on authority. Henceforth, comparatively small groups will be able to do the sort of damage which
before only state armies or major revolutionary movements could achieve. A few fanatics with a ‘dirty bomb’ or biological weapons will be able to cause
death on a scale not previously envisaged. … Emancipation, diversity, global communication—all of the things that promise an age of riches and creativity—could also bring a nightmare in which states lose control of the means of
violence and people lose control of their futures.”—Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
Reflect.
“The two systems—the modern based on balance
and the post-modern based on openness—do not co-
exist well together.” —Robert Cooper,
The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“Before we can talk about the security requirements for today
and tomorrow, we have to forget the security rules of yesterday.” —Robert Cooper, The
Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“IT MAY SOMEDAY BE SAID THAT THE 21ST CENTURY BEGAN ON SEPTEMBER 11, 2001. …
“Al-Qaeda represents a new and profoundly dangerous kind of
organization—one that might be called a ‘virtual state.’ On September 11 a virtual
state proved that modern societies are vulnerable as never before.”—Time/09.09.2002
“The deadliest strength of America’s new adversaries is their very fluidity, Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld believes. Terrorist networks, unburdened by fixed borders, headquarters or conventional forces, are
free to study the way this nation responds to threats and adapt themselves to prepare for what Mr. Rumsfeld is certain will be another attack. …
“ ‘Business as usual won’t do it,’ he said. His answer is to develop swifter, more lethal ways
to fight. ‘Big institutions aren’t swift on their feet in adapting but rather ponderous and clumsy
and slow.’ ”—The New York Times/09.04.2002
From: Weapon v. Weapon
To: Org structure v. Org structure
“Our military structure today is essentially one
developed and designed by Napoleon.”
Admiral Bill Owens, former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
“The organizations we created have become tyrants. They have taken
control, holding us fettered, creating barriers that hinder rather than help our businesses. The lines that we drew on our neat organizational diagrams have turned into walls
that no one can scale or penetrate or even peer over.” —Frank Lekanne Deprez &
René Tissen, Zero Space: Moving Beyond Organizational Limits.
“In an era when terrorists use satellite
phones and encrypted email, US gatekeepers stand armed against them with pencils
and paperwork, and archaic computer systems that don’t
talk to each other.”Boston Globe (09.30.2001)
“Dawn Meyerreicks, CTO of the Defense Information Systems Agency, made one of the most fateful military calls of the 21st century. After 9/11 … her office
quickly leased all the available transponders covering Central Asia. The implications should change everything about U.S. military thinking in the
years ahead.
“The U.S. Air Force had kicked off its fight against the Taliban with an ineffective bombing campaign, and Washington was anguishing over whether to send in a few Army divisions. Donald Rumsfeld told Gen. Tommy Franks to
give the initiative to 250 Special Forces already on the ground. They used satellite phones, Predator surveillance drones, and GPS- and laser-based
targeting systems to make the air strikes brutally effective.
“In effect, they ‘Napsterized’ the battlefield by cutting out the middlemen (much of the military’s command and control) and working directly with the
real players. … The data came in so fast that HQ revised operating procedures to allow intelligence analysts and attack planners to work directly
together. Their favorite tool, incidentally, was instant messaging over a secure network.”—Ned Desmond/“Broadband’s New Killer App”/Business
2.0/ OCT2002
“The mechanical speed of combat vehicles has not
increased since Rommel’s day, so the difference is all in the
operational speed, faster communications and faster
decisions.” —Edward Luttwak, on the unprecedented pace of the move toward Baghdad
“If early soldiers idealized Napoleon or Patton, network-centric warriors
admire Wal*Mart, where point-of-sale scanners share information on a near real-time basis with suppliers and also produce data that is mined to help leaders develop new strategic or tactical plans. Wal*Mart is an example of translating information into
competitive advantage.”—Tom Stewart, Business 2.0
The New Infantry Battalion/New York Times/12.01.2002
“Pentagon’s Urgent Search for Speed.” 270 soldiers (1/3rd normal complement); 140 robotic off-road armored trucks. “Every soldier is a
sensor.” “Revolutionary capabilities.” Find-to-hit: 45 minutes to 15 minutes
… in just one year.
“Armies are like plants, immobile, firm-rooted, nourished through
long stems to the head” … guerillas: “might be a vapour;”
fighting guerillas “like eating soup with a knife”
Source: T.E. Lawrence
Eric’s Army
Flat.Fast.Agile.Adaptable.Light … But Lethal.Talent/ “I Am an Army of One.”Info-intense.Network-centric.
“Float like a butterfly.
Sting like a bee.” —Ali
“To fight terrorism with an army is like trying to
shoot a cloud of mosquitoes with a
machine gun.” —Review of Terror in the Name
of God/NYT/11.2003
“Rather than have massive armies that people can go along and
inspect, it is now about having rapidly deployable expediency forces that can be dropped by
land, sea or air and with full support.” —MoD official, on Defense Secretary Geoff
Hoon’s defense white paper (12.2003)
“We must not only transform our armed forces but the Defense Department that serves them—
by encouraging a culture of creativity and intelligent risktaking. We must promote a more entrepreneurial approach: one that encourages
people to be proactive, not reactive, and to behave less like bureaucrats and more like
venture capitalists; one that does not wait for threats to emerge and be ‘validated,’ but rather
anticipates them before they appear and develops new capabilities to dissuade them and
deter them.” —Donald Rumsfeld, Foreign Affairs
Boyd
OODA Loop/Boyd Cycle“Unraveling the competition”/ Quick Transients/ Quick Tempo (NOT JUST
SPEED!)/ Agility/ “So quick it is disconcerting” (adversary over-reacts or under-reacts)/ “Winners used tactics that caused the enemy to unravel before the
fight” (NEVER HEAD TO HEAD)
BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)
“Fast Transients”
“Buttonhook turn” (YF16: “could flick from one maneuver to another faster than any aircraft”)
BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)
“Blitzkrieg is far more than lightning thrusts that most people think of
when they hear the term; rather it was all about high operational tempo
and the rapid exploitation of opportunity.”/ “Arrange the mind of
the enemy.”—T.E. Lawrence/ “Float like a butterfly, sting like a
bee.”—Ali
BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)
F86 vs. MiG/Korea/10:1
Bubble canopy (360 degree view)
Full hydraulic controls (“The F86 driver could go from one maneuver to another faster than the MiG driver”)
MiG: “faster in raw acceleration and turning ability”; F86: “quicker in
changing maneuvers”BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)
“Maneuverists”
BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)
Thunder Run/3rd Infantry Division/04.07.2004/”We wanted to
create as much chaos as possible.”—COL David Perkins/“Disorient and
demoralize”—DHR
“Strategy meetings held once
or twice a year” to “Strategy meetings needed several
times a week”
Source: New York Times on Meg Whitman/eBay
All Bets Are Off!
“There will be more
confusion in the business world in the next decade than in any decade in history. And the current pace of
change will only accelerate.”Steve Case
“We have no future because our present is too volatile.
We have only risk management. The spinning
of the given moment’s scenarios. Pattern
recognition.” —from William Gibson, Pattern Recognition
“Save the date.” Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Swartz. Martha Stewart. Scott Sullivan. John Rigas. Walter
Forbes and Kirk Shelton. Frank Quattrone. Richard Scrushy. Misc.
Enronnies
Source: Headline/Business Day/NYT/01.08.2004
“We are in a
brawl with no rules.”
Paul Allaire
S.A.V.
I Believe …
1. Change will accelerate. DRAMATICALLY.2. We will RE-INVENT THE WORLD IN THE NEXT TWO GENERATIONS. (Business … Health Care … Politics … War … Education … Fundamentals of Human Interaction.)
3. OPPORTUNITIES are matchless. 4. You are either … ON THE BUS … or … OFF THE BUS.5. I WANT TO PLAY! AND YOU?
Successful Businesses’ Dozen Truths: TP’s 30-Year Perspective
1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent.2. Disrespect for Tradition.3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do.4. Utter Disbelief at the Bullshit that Marks “Normal Industry Behavior.”5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution … and Utter Contempt for Those Who Don’t “Get It.”6. Speed Demons.7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge.)8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy.9. Willingness to Lead the Customer … and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers.)10. “Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes.” 11. Courage to Stand Alone on One’s Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom.12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Brand Power.
It is the foremost task—and responsibility—of our generation to
re-imagine our enterprises, private
and public. —from the Foreword, Re-imagine
“How we feel about the evolving future tells us who we are as individuals and as a civilization: Do we search for stasis—a regulated, engineered world? Or do we embrace dynamism—a world of constant creation,
discovery and competition? Do we value stability and control? Or evolution and learning? Do we think that progress requires a central blueprint? Or do we see it as a decentralized, evolutionary process? Do we see mistakes as permanent disasters? Or the correctable
byproducts of experimentation? Do we crave predictability? Or relish surprise? These two poles,
stasis and dynamism, increasingly define our political, intellectual and cultural landscape.” —Virginia Postrel,
The Future and Its Enemies
“Let’s compete—by training the best workers, investing in R & D,
erecting the best infrastructure and building an education system that graduates students who rank with the worlds best. Our goal is to be competitive with the best so we
both win and create jobs.” —Craig Barrett (Time/03.01.04)
Age of AgricultureIndustrial Age
Age of Information IntensificationAge of Creation Intensification
Source: Murikami Teruyasu, Nomura Research Institute
“The Creative Class derives its identity from its members’ roles as
purveyors of creativity. Because creativity is the driving force of economic growth, in terms of
influence the Creative Class has become the dominant class in
society.” —Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class (38M, 30%)
The “Ownership Society” (GWB): “This is a bundle of proposals that treat
workers as self-reliant pioneers who rise through several employers and
careers. To thrive, these pioneers need survival tools. They need to own their own capital reserves, their retraining
programs, their own pensions and their own health insurance.” —David
Brooks/NYT/12.20.03
“For Marx, the path to social betterment was through collective resistance of the proletariat to the economic injustices of the capitalist system
that produced such misshapenness and fragmentation. For Emerson, the key was to jolt individuals into realizing the untapped power of energy, knowledge, and creativity of which all
people, at least in principle, are capable. He too hated all systems of human oppression; but his central project, and the basis of his legacy, was to unchain individual minds.” —Lawrence Buell, Emerson