the changing wealth of nations 2018pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/...wealth-of-nations-2018.pdf · •...
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The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018
Building a Sustainable Future
Editors: Glenn-Marie LangeQuentin WodonKevin Carey
Total Wealth
Long Term Prosperity and Well-Being
National Income / GDP
ProducedCapital
MachineryEquipmentStructures
UrbanLand
NaturalCapital
Energy/Minerals
AgriculturalLand
ForestsProtected
Areas
HumanCapital
NetForeignAssets
Male/Female and Employed /Self-
employed
Total Assets-Total
Liabilities
Wealth and well-being
Global Wealth by Income Group 1995 to 2014 Global wealth grew 66% between 1995 and 2014
The share held by Middle income countries increased
from 19% to 28%
The share held by Low income countries didn’t
change
$690 trillion
$1,143 trillion
Percent Change in Wealth Per Capita Total wealthgrew
everywhere,but per capita
wealth did not
50%5%-5% 100%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Zim
babw
eBu
rund
iCo
ngo,
DR
Com
oros
Mad
agas
car
Tanz
ania
C. A
frica
n Re
p.Ga
mbi
a, T
heNi
ger
Togo
Burk
ina
Faso
Liber
iaM
ali
Chad
Ugan
daM
ozam
biqu
eGu
inea
Mal
awi
Ethi
opia
Sier
ra Le
one
Rwan
daNi
geria
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Keny
aSw
azila
ndSe
nega
lZa
mbi
aCa
mer
oon
Ghan
aCo
ngo,
Rep
.M
aurit
ania
Gabo
nSo
uth
Afric
aM
aurit
ius
Bots
wan
aNa
mib
ia
Low income Lower middle income Upper middleincome
AFRICA: Annual Ave Growth of Wealth, by Income Group
Wealth, ave annual growth 95-14Wealth per cap, ave annual growth 95-14
Most African countries increased wealth, but for some, not enough to keep up with population growth
Wealth per capita declined in 10 African countries assets critical for generating future income may be depleted, a trend not reflected in annual income growth figures
The composition of wealth changes with economic development
Percent Shares of Wealth by Asset Type
Note: Net foreign assets are small and negative, except for High-income non-OECD countries
Development as Portfolio Management
... but growing aneconomy is not about
liquidating natural capitalto build other assets
Natural capital per capita is highest in upper middle and high income OECD countries
Natural Capital: Share vs Per Capita Value
Low income Lower Middle income
Upper Middle income
High incomeOECD
... but growing an economy is not about
liquidating natural capital to build other assets
At the global level, agricultural land, fossil fuels & minerals grew the most
Value of Natural Capital Per Person, 1995 to 2014 (2014 US$)
Varying trends inrenewable resources
in the developing regions, with forest value per
capita declining almost everywhere
Growth in Per Capita Value of Forest and Agricultural Land,1995 to 2014 (percent)
Regions include only low- and middle-income countries
More than half of SCDs use wealth accounts--provides the macroeconomic perspective on Nat Cap and the economy:
1. Measuring macro-economic performance: Not only, ‘Is GDP growing?’, but, ‘Is GDP growth sustainable?
2. Sectoral applications and Fiscal policy implications: How will economy benefit from better mgmt. of Nat Cap (forest,
fisheries, land, mineral & energy)?
Where is CWON used?
• Missing natural capital, expand CWON for • Air pollution: make explicit the impact on human capital• Make relevant to CMUs and country economists:
• Make it easy to use: country tool on platform for easy use• Link to other factors essential for assessing sustainability
− Institutions, governance, policies
− Critical natural capital, monitored in biophysical terms
What’s next for CWON?
Focus on Africa
• SSA has 2% of global wealth, but 13% of population• Gabon is wealthiest per capita, followed by Mauritius,
Botswana, Namibia, South Africa• 26 countries have wealth/capita < $30k• 6 countries have wealth/capita <$10k
Wealth in Africa is highly concentrated in 2 countries, while per capita wealth shows large diversity
• Two countries account for about half
• Six countries hold 2/3 of SSA wealth
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Zim
babw
eBu
rund
iCo
ngo,
DR
Com
oros
Mad
agas
car
Tanz
ania
C. A
frica
n Re
p.Ga
mbi
a, T
heNi
ger
Togo
Burk
ina
Faso
Liber
iaM
ali
Chad
Ugan
daM
ozam
biqu
eGu
inea
Mal
awi
Ethi
opia
Sier
ra Le
one
Rwan
daNi
geria
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Keny
aSw
azila
ndSe
nega
lZa
mbi
aCa
mer
oon
Ghan
aCo
ngo,
Rep
.M
aurit
ania
Gabo
nSo
uth
Afric
aM
aurit
ius
Bots
wan
aNa
mib
ia
Low income Lower middle income Upper middleincome
AFRICA: Annual Ave Growth of Wealth, by Income Group
Wealth, ave annual growth 95-14Wealth per cap, ave annual growth 95-14
Most African countries increased wealth, but not enough to keep up with population growth
• Wealth/capita declined in 10 African countries assets critical for generating future income may be depleted, a trend not reflected in annual income growth figures
Africa: Value of Natural Capital Grows with Wealth
•As countries gain wealth, renewable NR wealth tends to grow in absolute terms (even while it may decrease as a share of the total)
•Non-Renewable NR capital does not exhibit the same strong trend
• NB: SA, Nigeria & ETH not shown – to make more points visible in graphic
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Nat
ural
Cap
ital 2
014
Total Wealth 2014
AFRICA: Renewable and Non Renewable NR Wealth Plotted with Total Wealth
Renewable NR Capital
Non-Renewable NR Capital
Linear (Renewable NR Capital)
• Most had growth in non-renewable NC• Most depleted renewable NC substantially (8 depleted by >25%)• All had high population growth• Most failed to accumulate human capital
Focus on 10 countries with growth/capita < 0
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Burundi -LIC FCS
Congo, DRC -LIC FCS RRS
Zimbabwe -LIC FCS
Nigeria -LMIC RRS
Madagascar -LIC FCS RRS
Comoros -LIC FCS
Tanzania -LIC RRS
Kenya -LMIC
Cote d'Ivoire -LMIC FCS RRS
Gabon -UMC RRS
Changes in Wealth per Capita by Category for 10 Countries with Negative Wealth Changes from 1995 to 2024
ProducedRenewableNon-renewableHumanPop'n Change
The Environment & Natural Resources
Global Practice
The BIG picture …
Sustainable Approaches Fundamental for Growth + Prosperity
Urgent ACTION is needed to avert Earth’s tipping points
Planetary Boundaries:Need to balancebiological/physical and economic/social systems
Our business in ENR and in the Bank…
Green Business: Pursues Effective Use and Management of Forests and Landscapes
US$ 6.1 Billion in active and pipeline
Blue Economy: Approach Cuts Across Entire Blue Spectrum With a Focus on Sustainability
US$ 3.6 Billion in active and pipeline
Brown Business: Improves Health Globally through Pollution Management
US$ 4.6 Billion in active and pipeline
Safeguards Business:
Environmental Risk Management &Environmental and Social FrameworkRoll-Out
The Climate Infusion:
ENR GP Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits
Innovation and Disruptive Technologies
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Expected* FY19
ENR GP Lending FY 13-FY 19 in US million
IBRD IDA TFs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Expected* FY19
ENR GP number of projects FY 13-FY 19
IBRD IDA TFs
Our robust growth path
4,413.54
5,085.32
4,512.94
5,218.415,073.53
7,405.01
6,718.77
.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
US
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year
ENR GP net commitments per year
Arigato Gozaimashitaありがとうございました