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The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely.

Julian Simon


Every generation has under-estimated the potential for finding new ideas. We consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered. Possibilities do not merely add up; they multiply.

Paul Romer


Productivity growth

Cloud & disruptive technology

Wages & wealth creation

Jobs & skills

Automation & analytics IT

is the great enabler


Index of GDP growth vs. median household income decades

A look at 5 But is IT creating prosperity?

1980 1990 2000 2010 1970

GDP growth

Household income


U.S. job growth by decade

1940

1950

37.7% 31.1%

27.6% 24.7% 1960

1970 20.2% 1980 19.8%

1990 -1.1% 2000


Median

Mean

2000 2010 1980 1990 1970

Median & mean duration of unemployment


U.S. real corporate profits after tax

in 1990’s as high as

$1.5T $600B $1.1T in 2010+ as high as

in 2000’s as high as


Left behind? Digital technologies change rapidly, but organizations and skills aren’t keeping pace. As a result, millions of people are being left behind. Their incomes and jobs are being destroyed, leaving them worse off the before the digital revolution.

Erik Brynjolfsson Andrew McAfee Race Against the Machine


1 Will we be left behind?

Is technology irreversibly altering our industry and perhaps leading to its demise


Market at all-time highs

Record high ACV in 2Q14 $6.4B

2Q14 New Scope and Restructuring ACV are up significantly Y/Y

17% 2Q14 BPO ACV is up

1H14 Mfg surpassed 4 half y/y average

ITO contracts 250 2Q14 ITO 100%


Are we in a downward spiral? Are we disrupting ourselves? Is the Great Stagnation setting in?

2 Does it add up?


Skill disparities

Grad school College grad Some college HS grad HS drop out

1960’s Now the

wee

kly

wag

es

$0.0

$0.6

Grad school College grad Some college HS grad HS drop out


The rich getting richer

top 1% At highest level since

1920’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1920's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

bottom 90%

top 1%



Will technological progress continue to drive the downward spiral in jobs?

Will it eventually create new ones?

3 Where’s the payoff?


New labor? Computers are now doing many things that used to be the domain of people only. The pace and scale of this encroachment ... has profound economic implications … leaving some people, or even a lot of them, worse off.

Frank Levy Richard J. Murnane The New Division of Labor


1958 US BEA starts tracking IT

+ Moore’s Law computing power doubles every two years

32 * 1.5

Have we entered second half of the

technology chessboard?

Are we being automated to death?


The age of automation autonomous driving

Online translations


Are machines replacing the need for humans?

Will automation eventually make our industry irrelevant?

4 Automation as category killer


Leveraging IT to reduce OpEx? Using IT to drive revenue growth?

5 Where are you?


When we think about our future, we hope for a future of progress. That progress can take one of two forms. Horizontal or extensive progress means copying things that work – going from 1 to n. Horizontal progress is easy to imagine because we already know what it looks like. Vertical or intensive progress means doing new things – going from 0 to 1.

Peter Thiel Zero to One

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