the chosen few nes 20 conference 14/12/2012 moscow

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The Chosen FewNES 20 Conference14/12/2012 Moscow

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9744.html

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9744.html

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Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live?

Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority?

Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.–200

Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers

Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200–650: The Chosen Few

Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 750–1150

Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 800–1250

Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 1000–1500

Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse

Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions

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We document three puzzles

• Jewish population dynamics

60-600 decreased 5.5 to 1.5 M1250-1500decreased 1.2 to 0.8-1.0 M

• Occupational selection (750-900, Muslim Middle East) Jews left farming and entered urban, skilled occupations

• Jewish Diaspora and minority status (800-1200)The migrations of Jewish *skills*

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Jewish population dynamics65 100 150 300 550 650

Land of Israel

2.5 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1

Mesopotamia

1 1 1-1.2 1-1.2 0.8-1 0.7-0.9

Egypt 1 0.8-1 0.5 __ __ 0.004

Syria 0.2-0.4

many some few few 0.005

Asia Minor 0.2-0.4


Eastern Europe

__ __ __ __ __ __

Western Europe

0.1-0.2

some some few few 0.001

Total Jewish Pop

5-5.5 4.3-4.5

3.1-3.3

1.9-2.1

1.2-1.5 1-1.2

Total Population

54.9 57 58 56.4 47.9 51.1

J pop / total pop

9.1% 6.8% 5.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.1%

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Jewish Population Dynamics

1170 1300 1400 1490

Land of Israel 0.002 … … …

Mesopotamia, Persia

0.8-1.0 __ __ 0.25-0.35

Egypt, North Africa

0.07 __ __ 0.005

Syria 0.02 __ __ 0.007

Balkans, Eastern Europe

0.047 0.065 __ 0.09

Western Europe 0.103 0.385 __ 0.510

Total Jewish Population

1.2-1.5 __ __ 0.8-1

Total Population 70 __ __ 87.5

Jewish as % of total pop

1.6% __ __ 1%

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Jewish occupational transition Time Location Farmers

(%)Crafts, Trade,

Money lending (%)

1 – 400 Land of Israel 85-90 10-15

Mesopotamia 85-90 10-15

Egypt 70-80 20-30

Syria 85-90 10-15

Asia Minor and Balkans

40-50 50-60

Western Europe 70-80 20-30

750 - 900

Land of Israel 20-30 70-80


Egypt 10-20 80-90

Syria 10-20 80-90


10-20 80-90


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• Jewish Population Dynamics 65 C.E. - 1492 from 5.5 to 1 MCommon answer: “Jews were oppressed and persecuted…”

• Occupational Selection 750-900 to todayCommon answer: “Restrictions on minority…”

• Jewish Diaspora and Minority StatusCommon answer: “ Jews were forced to leave…”

The Chosen Few: Why?

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Economic Restrictions (e.g., Cecil Roth)

Persecutions & Portable Human Capital (e.g.,

Brenner & Keefer)

The Economics of Small Minorities (e.g., Weber ;

Kuznets; Slezkine)

Why are the Jews merchants, urban

dwellers, entrepreneurs,

money lenders and doctors?

Is there a common factor behind the three historical

patterns?

Our answerA shift in the religious norm after 70 brought these long-

term economic and demographic outcomes

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Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E. – 200








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First “historical accident”, 70

200 BCE – 70 70 70 – 200

Many religious groups

(Sadducees, Pharisees,

Essenes, Zealots)

Pharisees: stress the study of

Written and Oral Torah (Law)

Temple in Jerusalem

destroyed by Romans

Pharisees became religious leaders

Leadership of rabbis

The Mishna (c. 200) 6 volumes of rules

for daily life

About 64 Religious norm:

fathers must send sons to school to learn the Torah

Sacrifices replaced with study of the

Torah in synagogue

From 200ammei ha-aretz

(illiterate people) considered outcast

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200 BCE – 70 70 70 – 200



Essenes, Zealots)



Temple in Jerusalem

destroyed by Romans




for daily life

About 64Religious norm:



Torah in synagogue



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200 BCE – 70 70 70 – 200



Essenes, Zealots)



Temple in Jerusalem

destroyed by Romans




for daily life

About 64 Religious norm:



Torah in synagogue



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Based on economic theory: What are the implications of the change in

religious norms?Model: Hebrew literacy has no economic returns for subsistence farmers but religious (utility) returns for Jews. School is costly.

• Jewish farmers decide whether to send boys to school (synagogue) and whether to convert convert to other religions

• Jews are heterogeneous in religiosity, income, ability, etc. Result 1: Some Jewish farmers educate their boys.

• Non-Jews farmers do not educate their boys. • Cost of education cause some Jewish farmers to

convert - Who? low attachment, low ability, low income: ammei-haaretz…

• Implication: In the long run Judaism cannot survive in a subsistence farming society.

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Model (continued)

• Result 2: Jewish farmers who learn in synagogue to read (write) have a comparative advantage in occupations and locations in which reading, writing contracts and communication have high economic returns.

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Testable implications on conversions and Jewish population dynamics

At a given point in time:• Heterogeneity among Jews (x, γ, θ, e), some

Jewish farmers do not educate their children and convert

• More conversions occur when aggregate economic conditions are bad (low wF, high τrF) and in small communities (high γ)

• In the long-run, Judaism cannot survive in a subsistence farming society as Jewish farming population is decreasing.

• Reduction in Jewish population can be halted:1.with increased demand for literate

occupations: Expansion of urbanization and trade

2. with migrations to opportunities

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Jews in the Talmud Era (200-650): The

Chosen Few [children’s education]

• In subsistence farming economy: investment in children's education is a costly religious sacrifice with no economic return

• A typical family’s budget in Roman Palestine– food expenses = 40-50%

– taxes = 30%– little was left to buy clothing, books, paying

teachers and build synagogue

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Cost of living (in denarii), 1st-3rd centuries

Items in a household budget

Land of

Israel

Egypt

Babylon

Monthly wage of agricultural worker

24-48 4-32 72-96

Monthly wage of urban skilled worker

48-72 6-40

Monthy wage of boy on farm work

--- 2-10

Monthly bread expenses (family of four)

10-20 5-10

Cattle (ox or cow) 100-200 15-100

Suit/cloak 30 ---

Monthly rent of a house 4 ---

Book 200 --- 80-120

Source: Sperber (1965; 1967)

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Despite being costly, primary education/literacy became

spread in Jewish communities from 200 to 650

EVIDENCE

Many rulings in the Talmud on school and teacher - Judaism unique

Archeological findings on synagogues

Growth of academies in Babylon: more students with primary education

The Kallah

From 6th century: Responsa

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Sample of synagogues, ca. 200-500Century Locations

3rd Bar’am, Gush Halav, Horvat, Horvat Shema, Kefar Kana, Nevoraya, En-Gedi, Eshtemoa

3rd -4th Chorazin, Gush Halav, Hammat Gader, Hammath Tiberias, Khirbet Shema, Maoz Hayyim, Meiron, Nabratein, Rehov, Horvat Sumaqa, Horvat Rimmon

4th Arbel, Capernaum, Horvat ha-Amudin, Meroth, Beth Alpha, Beth Shean, Maoz Hayim, Gaza, Horvat Susiya, Naaran, Zuminra

3rd, 5th Anim, Aphik, Dabbura, Kefar Hananiah

5th Assalieh, En Neshut, Horvat Kanef, Katzrin, Huseifa, Hirbet Amudin, Yaifia, Sepphoris

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• Evidence from population dynamics, c. 1-650

• Evidence from literary and epigraphic sources, 1-325

• Evidence from literary sources, 325-650


Chosen Few [conversions]

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65 100 150 300 550 650

Land of Israel

2.5 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1

Mesopotamia

1 1 1-1.2 1-1.2 0.8-1 0.7-0.9

Egypt 1 0.8-1 0.5 __ __ 0.004

Syria 0.2-0.4


Asia Minor 0.2-0.4


Eastern Europe

__ __ __ __ __ __

Western Europe

0.1-0.2

some some few few 0.001

Total Jewish Pop

5-5.5 4.3-4.5

3.1-3.3

1.9-2.1

1.2-1.5 1-1.2

Total Population

54.9 57 58 56.4 47.9 51.1

J pop / total pop

9.1% 6.8% 5.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.1%

Great revolt, Temple (70)

Revolt in Egypt (115) Bar Kokhba revolt

(135)

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• Evidence from population dynamics, c. 1-650

• Evidence from literary and epigraphic sources, 1-325 – Locations with Christians included also Jewish populations:

Only from 150 Christians were not considered Jewish.

• Evidence from literary sources, 325-650 – Laws protecting Jewish converts


Chosen Few [conversions]

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If all Jews were literate in 650,

why were they still farmers in 650?

Given rural subsistence economies in 4th-7th centuries, literate Jewish farmers could not find urban skilled occupations

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Second “historical accident”, c. 632

Mohammed established Islam and set the foundations of one of the largest, most urban, and commercially developed empires in history

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Urbanization expanded in newly established Abbasid Empire

8th – 9th centuries

Total Population

(thousands)

Baghdad 600—1,000

Samarra 500

Basra 200-600

Cairo 300

ca. 1170

Palermo 150

Paris 110

Seville 80

Venice 70

Granada 60

Cordoba 60

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Jewish occupational transition: WHY?

(it took 150 years --- consistent with other evidence)Time Location Farmers

(%)Urban skilled occupations

(%)1 – 400 Land of Israel 85-90 10-15


Egypt 70-80 20-30

Syria 85-90 10-15


40-50 50-60


750 - 900

Land of Israel 20-30 70-80


Egypt 10-20 80-90

Syria 10-20 80-90


10-20 80-90


Why almost all Jews became urban dwellers (750 to 900)?

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The Economic Return to Jewish Religious literacy

• Literacy: knowledge of one language – Hebrew – enable to learn other languages (Hebrew-Arabic, Hebrew-French, Ladino, Yiddish) based on Geniza documents.

• Language enables to write commercial contracts and loans across locations. Jewish law enables to implement agreements.

• The common language enables to expand mail network for religious, family and commercial contacts based on Jewish law and community penalties (Greif).

• The language enables Jewish artisans to write contracts for the production of shoes, clothes and other personal items

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The theory of Jewish merchant: education and conversion

• Assumption: Merchants income increases from theirs and their son education

• Merchant's budget constraint: c + γ(es)θ + τrM ≤ wF (1 + Aes

α e1-α)

Results:• Education: Jewish merchants invest more than

non-Jewish merchants in children's education. WHY?

• Conversion:(i) If taxes for Jewish and non-Jewish merchant are

the same – no Jewish merchant will convert.

(ii)Over time, the proportion of merchants among Jews will increase.

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Education: tons of evidence from Genizah and Responsa (900-1250) of almost 100% literacy among Jews.

No or few conversions of Jews from 700 to 1200


c. 650 c. 1170

Land of Israel 0.1 0.002

Mesopotamia and Persia

0.7-0.9 0.8-1.0

Egypt and North Africa

0.004 0.07

Syria 0.005 0.015

Balkans, eastern Europe

0.047 0.047

Western Europe 0.005 0.103


1-1.2 1.2-1.5

Total Population 51.1 70

J as % of total pop 2.1% 1.6%

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Voluntary Diaspora Migrations of Jewish *skills*, ca. 800-1250

• Main insight from the modelJudaism can survive in the long run only if Jews can find occupations with high returns to their investment in education

• Historical evidenceThe voluntary migrations of Jewish people between 800 and 1250 support this argument

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Migrations within the Muslim Empire (800-1100)

voluntary and free• Jewish craftsmen, traders, physicians, scholars

from Mesopotamia and Persia settled in Syria, Egypt, Maghreb, Spain, and Sicily

• The “golden age” of Jewish history

Migrations to western Europe (850-1250) voluntary and regulated

• Jews migrated to England, Flanders, France, Germany, Italy upon invitation by local rulers --- wealthy communities in hundreds of towns

• Because of high human capital and skills, Jews viewed as essential for economic growth

• No restrictions on Jewish economic activities

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Sample of Medieval ChartersCountry

City Year of charter

Own Land

Trade Money Lending

Spain Barcelona

1053-1071

yes yes yes

Tudela 1116 silent yes yes

Toledo 1222 yes yes yes

Valencia

1250 yes yes yes

France --- 820 yes yes silent

--- 1190 silent silent yes

England

--- 1120, 1170

yes yes yes

--- 1275 yes yes no

Germany

Speyer 1084, 1090

yes yes yes

Worms 1074 silent yes silent

Worms 1090, 1157

yes yes yes

Ratisbon

1182, 1216, 1230

yes yes silent

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The zenith of the Jewish DiasporaFrom the travel itinerary of Benjamin de Tudela (c. 1170)

• In Muslim Mesopotamia and Persia: 70 percent of world Jewry

• Muslim Iberian Peninsula: wealthy Jewish communities in hundreds of cities and towns (Sephardim)

• France, England, Germany: prominent Jewish communities in hundreds of locations (Ashkenazim)

• Jewish communities all over Italy, Bohemia, eastern Europe, Turkey, the Middle East, Egypt, the Maghreb, all the way to central Asia, China, and India

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Genetic distance and conversions

• Contemporary Jewish populations show a closer genetic link to Jews from far away locations than to their neighboring non-Jewish populations

• Especially the Ashkenazi Jews of eastern Europe are genetically closer to Jews from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as to other Middle Eastern non-Jewish populations, than to eastern European non-Jewish populations

• This provides additional and independent evidence that there were no significant conversions to, and out of, Judaism once the Jews became merchants and migrated to western and then eastern Europe

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Why Money Lending?Why Money Lending?

• Money lending is another form of commerce – highly sophisticated; need contracts; enforcement; arbitration; capital.

• High interest rates on short term lending.• Arbitrage among locations.• High risk and high return• Permits and taxes to rulers – set in

Privileges.Was it due to land restrictions? NO!Was it due to usury bans on Christians?

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Time Location325 Roman Empire Church prohibits clergy from charging interests on loans

500-1100 Europe Church extends usury ban to the laity --- ban not enforced

650-1250 Muslim Empire Qur’an prohibits Moslems from charging interest on loans

750 – 900 Mesopotamia and Persia

Jews left farming, moved to urban centers, and entered nearly 450 occupations (crafts, trade, moneylending)

850-1250 Europe Jews migrated from the Middle East to Europe as urban dwellers specialized in crafts, trade, and money lending

From 1100 Europe Jews became prominent in moneylending. Jewish scholars (e.g., Rashi ) issued many rulings to regulate money lending during 11th and 12th centuries

1200-13501200-13501350-1550

1350-1500

EuropeEuropeEurope

Europe

Church strictly enforces usury ban on ChristiansCraft and merchant guilds began growing Guilds dominated manufacturing and commerce

Restrictions on Jewish land ownership in some charters

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Ch 1 Jewish population, locations, and occupations

Ch 2 A persecuted minority?

Ch 3 The people of the book (c. 200 BCE — 200 CE)

Ch 4 The economics of Hebrew literacy in a world of farmers

Ch 5 Jews in the Talmud era (200-650 CE): the chosen few

Ch 6 From farmers to merchants (c. 750-900)

Ch 7 The educated wandering Jew (c. 800-1258)

Ch 8 From merchants to moneylenders: selection or segregation?

Ch 9 The Mongol shock: Can Judaism survive when trade and urban economies collapse?

Ch 10 1492 to today: open questions

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Third “Historical Accident”, 1258 The Mongol Shock

(Could the Jews be farmers in the long-run?)

• The Mongols invaded Persia (earliest 1220) and Mesopotamia in 1256-1260 and destroyed the urban economy

• Because of massacres, starvation, epidemics, total population was reduced by half

• Jewish population shrank from about 800 thousands to nearly 200-300 thousands

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1170 1300 1400 1490

Land of Israel 0.002 … … …

Mesopotamia, Persia

0.8-1.0 __ __ 0.25-0.35

Egypt, North Africa

0.07 __ __ 0.005

Syria 0.02 __ __ 0.007

Balkans, Eastern Europe

0.047 0.065 __ 0.09

Western Europe 0.103 0.385 __ 0.510


1.2-1.5 __ __ 0.8-1

Total Population 70 __ __ 87.5

Jewish as % of total pop

1.6% __ __ 1%

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• No evidence they migrated in huge numbers to western Europe (migrations to Europe were regulated)

• Death rate from starvation and epidemics similar to local population

• Jewish death toll from massacres by Mongols was lower

• The much larger reduction in Jewish population in Muslim Middle East was the outcome of voluntary conversions

Conversions among low-income Jews when the economy became a subsistence farming economy support our main insight

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1492 to Today: Open Questions

• Circa 1492 world Jewry: less than 1 million people– 450,000 Sephardim (urban skilled occupations)

Spain, North Africa, Greece, Turkey, Middle East, Iraq, Persia

– 450,000 Ashkenazim (urban skilled occupations)– Germany, Netherlands, Italy, eastern Europe, Russia

• Circa 1938 world Jewry: about 16.5 million– 2.2 million Sephardic Jews– 14.3 million Ashkenazi Jews (spectacular growth in

eastern Europe)

• Why this divergent demographic trend?

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Kuznets (1963): An economic puzzle?Country Year % Jews in

Non-agricultural

jobs

% Non-Jews in

Non-agricultural

jobs Poland 1931 96 47

Soviet Union 1926 96 27

United States

1940 98 82

Latvia 1930 99 47

Germany 1933 99 83

Czechoslovakia

1930 91 73

Hungary 1930 97 52

Rumania 1930 96 37

Bulgaria 1926 99 31

Canada 1931 99 71

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• Jews make 0.2 percent of the world population, and …– 54 percent of the world chess champions– 27 percent of the Nobel physics laureates– 31 percent of the medicine laureates

Jews are 2 percent of US population, and …– 21 percent of the Ivy League students bodies– 26 percent of the Kennedy Center honorees– 37 percent of Academy Award winning directors– 38 percent of those on a recent Business Week list of leading

philanthropists– 51 percent of the Pulitzer Prize winners for nonfiction

• Why this persistence in economic and intellectual success?

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Why are the Jews a small population of

merchants, entrepreneurs,

bankers, financiers, physicians, lawyers,

university professors?

(… Rothschild, Ricardo, etc)

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Nowadays, world Jewry is about 13 million people

40% in the United States (A)

15% in western Europe (A)

5% in the rest of the world (A)

40% in Israel (B)

– Jews in (A) display occupational selection (high-skill jobs) and have higher earnings than the rest of the population

– Jews in (B) have occupational structure similar to that of any small European country or that of the general population of the United States

• Why this different occupational and earning structure?

A growing literature

Interactions

cultural valuesreligious rules → economic outcomessocial norms

– Barro & McCleary; Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales; Iannaccone; Becker & Woesserman

– Doepke & Zilibotti – Greif; Mokyr; Temin; Tabellini

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the chosen few nes 20 conference 14/12/2012 moscow

Documents

jews merchants

educated wandering jews

total jewish pop5

total jewish population1

muslim middle east jews

migrations of jewish

total population54

total population70