The Coastal Index:The Problem and Possibility of Our CoastThe Coastal Index:The Problem and Possibility of Our Coast

Dr. George Hobor Dr. Allison PlyerBen Horwitz

" Regional markets are made up of complex,

place-based interactions that often result in

economic interdependence across proximal

metropolitan areas. Our previous research found that the parishes in the

super region were highly synergistic and

interconnected as evidenced by commuter

patterns, industrial specializations, and freight

flows."

The Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and Houma-Thibodaux "super region” (aka Southeast Louisiana)

Sources: Louisiana Economic Development, Greater New Orleans Inc., New Orleans Business Alliance, Baton Rouge Area Chamber, and South Louisiana Economic Council.

The target industries of each of the major regional economic development organizations in Southeast Louisiana align nicely with the target industries of LED.

Location quotients of business services and construction products and services

Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School.

The coast of the U.S. contributes 42 percent of national economic output, and 39 percent of U.S. population live in coastal counties. Protecting the U.S. coast will be a central focus of this century.

Source: Relative Sea Level (RSL) Variations of the United States 1854-2006. (2009). Derived from 128 National Water Level Observation Network Stations. Source: Department of Commerce (DOC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service (NOS), Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Retrieved April 9, 2014, from http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Tech_rpt_53.pdf.

Historical changes to relative sea level

THE PROBLEM

Sea level rise is rapidly increasing flood risk to essential economic infrastructure and population centers.

Source: Carbonell, A. & Meffert, D.J. (2009). Climate change and the resilience of New Orleans: The adaptation of deltaic urban form. World Bank.

Predicted Louisiana land loss with 1.0 to 3.3 feet relative sea level rise by 2100

THE PROBLEM

Coastal areas are second only to inner cities in terms of having high ratios of jobs to the number of people who live there.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Local Employment Dynamics, 2011.THE PROBLEM

Coastal areas as job generators, 2011

With unemployment rates lower than the national average, Southeast Louisiana is a working coast.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment rate by metro Southeast Louisiana and the United States

THE PROBLEM

Residents of Southeast Louisiana have begun a gradual retreat from the coastline, and several coastal communities have continually lost population since July 2005.

Source: USPS Delivery Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau: 2010 Census; 2008-2012 American Community Survey THE PROBLEM

Increases and decreases in households receiving mail, July 2005-January 2014 ZIP codes in coastal parishes

Source: Greater New Orleans Urban Water Plan

Living with water

Water management is the second largest of the economic sectors that regional leadership has targeted for growth and has added more jobs than any other sector since 2010.

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.

Employment by target sectorSoutheast Louisiana

THE POSSIBILITY

Location quotients show Southeast Louisiana has sustained a competitive advantage in water management over time, making it a sector of promise for future development.

Location quotients by target sector, 2013Southeast Louisiana

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.THE POSSIBILITY

The water management sector grew by 7,526 jobs from 2011 to 2013 – outperforming overall national trends and sector trends.

Shift share analysis of water management, 2011-2013Southeast Louisiana

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.THE POSSIBILITY

In comparison to other target sectors, only water management and digital media showed a competitive effect.

Shift share by target sector, 2011-2013Southeast Louisiana

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.THE POSSIBILITY

With 75 percent of jobs in occupations offering hourly wages over $15 an hour, water management offers high returns for modest amounts of training.

Percent of jobs by wage level, 2013Southeast Louisiana

Percent of jobs in water management by wage level and by training, 2013Southeast Louisiana

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.THE POSSIBILITY

With average earnings in 2013 of $78,909, water management offered the second highest earnings out of the target sectors, but they were still below the national average of $90,327.

Earnings by target sector, 2013United States and Southeast Louisiana

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.THE POSSIBILITY

The water management sector spends $4.4 billion total with $2.4 billion being spent locally – a level of local spending that is overmatched only by the energy and petrochemical sector.

In-region and out-of-region spending by target sector, 2012in billions of dollars, Southeast Louisiana

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.THE POSSIBILITY

The bulk of the sector’s within region spending is for services, such as architectural, and engineering services.

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.

Top 10 in-region supply chain spending by 4-digit NAICS industry, 2012Southeast Louisiana

THE POSSIBILITY

A large share of out-of-region spending is for manufactured goods.

Source: The Data Center’s analysis of data from EMSI.

Top 10 out-of-region supply chain spending by 4-digit NAICS industry, 2012Southeast Louisiana

THE POSSIBILITY

CONCLUSION: The Coastal Index

• The retreat from the coast is real, leading to visible alterations in the composition of coastal communities.

• The scale of restoration activities planned have the potential to stem land and population loss and build a diverse economy for the region by formalizing the expertise residents have developed into a specialized water management economy.

• To become a national – and even global – leader in showing others how to live with water, Southeast Louisiana must build upon its impressive water management foundation.

CONCLUSION: The Coastal Index

• This can be accomplished by building upon the existing strengths in services, such as architecture and engineering services, by ensuring businesses in these industries can acquire talented workers and effectively compete for coastal work.

• Also, efforts to build up weaknesses, mainly the lack of manufacturers involved in water management, will greatly strengthen the cluster.

• It is only through further fortifying strengths and attending to weaknesses that the existing cluster will be able to expand to other markets rather than fade over time with the completion of coastal projects.