The coffee rust crisis in Central America Impacts on production and some hypotheses on

factors that triggered the epidemic

J.Avelino

Jacques Avelino, CIRAD / IICA-PROMECAFE / CATIE

jacques.avelino@cirad.fr

Costa Rica, February 2013 El Salvador, April 2013

J. Avelino J. Avelino

2011/2012

exports

(bags of 46 kg of

green beans)

Loss

State of

emergency

% Bags of 46 kg

of green beans

Honduras 7 100 000 31 % * 2 190 000 Yes

Guatemala 4 850 000 15 % * 730 000 Yes

Costa Rica 2 008 000 5 % ** 100 000 Yes

El Salvador 1 500 000 23 % ** 440 000 No

Nicaragua 2 000 000 3% ** 59 000 No

Data obtained within the framework of the project « coffee rust control in Mesoamerica » funded by Norway and

managed by CATIE (Dr. Elías de Melo)

* Estimated reduction of the 2012-2013 harvest , attributed to rust, with respect to 2011-2012 harvest

** With respect to initial 2012/2013 harvest estimates

J.Avelino

Losses reported by the coffee institutes for

the 2012-2013 harvest in Central America

According to PROMECAFE, rust caused a 20 % production loss in the

2012/2013 harvest equivalent to $ M 500, and 375 000 people lost their job

The 2012-2013 outbreak will cause losses

over several years

Severe defoliation caused by

coffee rust

(February 2013, Costa Rica)

Stumping to rejuvenate coffee trees

after the outbreak

(February 2013, Costa Rica)

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These trees will produce normally in 2015-2016

If they don’t die : old coffee trees do not respond well to the practice

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Total

planted

area (ha)

Severe

pruning

needed

(ha)

Renovation

needed

(ha)

Minimum production

decrease in the 2013-

2014 harvest due the

2012-2013 outbreak

Honduras 280 000 70 000 22 000 33 %

Guatemala 276 500 31 000 6 700 14 %

Costa Rica 93 800 14 600 5 100 21 %

El Salvador 108 000 13 000 1 700 14 %

Nicaragua 180 000 27 000 ? 15 %

* Data obtained within the framework of the project « coffee rust control in Mesoamerica » funded by Norway and

managed by CATIE (Dr Elías de Melo)

J.Avelino

Areas requiring renovation or severe

pruning (stumping mainly) according to

coffee institutes

20 % of the Central American coffee area will not produce at all this year

and the next one

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Coffee rust threatens again

Special climatic conditions (very

rainy) which were propitious to

fungus reproduction

Low coffee prices which caused a

decrease of the number of

fungicide and fertilizer applications

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40 % of incidence on average in Jinotega and Matagalpa at

the end of 1995 and beginning of 1996

Severe defoliations and death of branches were observed

J. Avelino, 1996

Severe outbreak of coffee rust in Nicaragua,

in 1995-1996

Special climatic conditions (very rainy) which were propitious to

fungus reproduction

+ 20 000 ha of coffee were producing for the first time

In both cases the situation came back to normal in the

next year

J.Avelino

The 2012-2013 outbreak seems different

• Almost continental scale (the whole Central

America + Mexico + Peru)

• Very intense outbreak (affecting even young

and low yielding plants)

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Low yielding coffee tree High yielding coffee tree

J.Avelino

Pathogen Host

Environment

Producer’s actions: Socio-economic aspects

Crop Management Resistance

Physiology

Morphology

Architecture

Virulence

Agressiveness

Biology

Climate

Soil

Topography

Landscape

Natural enemies The disease tetrahedron

(Zadoks and Schein, 1979)

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses: Climate

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Decrease

of rainfall

Increase of

rust

The rainy season, in the second half of the year, was interspersed with

dry periods (less rains),

with an increase of temperatures (especially minimum temperatures)

COSTA RICA, ICAFE HONDURAS, IHCAFE

J.Avelino

Outbreak intensity was

heterogenous within the country,

because of climate differences

between regions

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses: Management

But also heterogeneity in a single

coffee area, suggesting more local

effects, probably in relation with

plant characteristics (fruit load,

plant age) and management

(particularly shade, fertilizer and

fungicide applications)

GUATEMALA

ANACAFE

J.Avelino

Drier in the second half of

of the year (before and

during the harvest period;

during the supposed rainy

season !)

Increase of

temperatures

Latent

period

shortened

High altitude

stands

behaved as

lower altitude

plantations

Decrease of coffee

prices (-30% in 1 year)

Low rainfall,

enough for

germination, and

no spore washing;

free water from

dew could help;

dispersal is done

by harvesters and

wind

Fertilizer inputs

reduced, and

fertilizer applications

were not effective

(reduced growth of

coffee trees)

No preventive control;

curative control was

applied too late, when

incidences were very high

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses: Climate and Management

Shade buffers

temperatures

Shade intercepts dew

Shade retains soil moisture

and reduces coffee tree

stress

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses: Climate and Management

Drier in the second half of the year

(before and during the harvest

period; during the supposed rainy

season !)

Increase of

temperatures

Latent

period

shortened

High altitude

stands

behaved as

lower altitude

plantations

Low rainfall,

enough for

germination and

no spore washing;

free water from

dew could help;

dispersal is done

by harvesters and

wind

J.Avelino

Shade part of the solution ?

– Colombia, 2008-2011

– El Salvador, Guatemala reported local outbreaks in 2010 and

2011 (with high altitude plots severely affected in Guatemala: >

1500 m of altitude)

– Explosion in 2012: Central America + Mexico

– Peru, 2013

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses: New strains of Hemileia ?

There was a kind of gradual expansion of the outbreak

Why this gradual expansion ?

Do we have new strains more agressive ?

Or new strains adapted to different climatic conditions (high

altitudes) ?

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What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses: New strains of Hemileia ?

New races have been detected in Costa Rica by

ICAFE-CIFC (only race II before) :

XXXVI (v 2,4,5,8) ?

XXIV (v 2,4,5)

These new races can be the consequence of the epidemic and not the

cause:

With a given rate of mutation, there are more mutants when the

population of the pathogen is abundant (McDonald, 2002).

The probability to have new races is then higher after a severe

outbreak. With no selection pressure by the host plant (by resistant

gentoypes), these races, hopefully, will disappear.

J.Avelino

What happened in Central America ?

Our main hypotheses:

Climate was the trigger

Disease control and fertilizer applications were

deficient

The issue of new strains needs to be studied

The current situation seems different:

Long dry season in 2013 (loss of inoculum; delayed epidemic)

Fungicides have been applied (product delivery, training, campaigns)

Low yield is expected due to the last coffee rust outbreak (lower

physiological susceptibility)

J.Avelino