The Cold War’s End and Aftermath

Why and how did the Cold War end?

Ideological

Capitalism survived and expanded due to a number of factors: Social reforms (the welfare state) The post-industrial revolution Expansion of the market economy Globalization Rise of multinational corporations

By the 1980s, the Global Left was in retreat Soviet-type Communism stagnated and declined China launched successful market reforms after Mao’s

death in 1976 In the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev launched democratic

reforms in 1985 Collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the

Soviet Union (1989-1991) Transition to capitalism

The rise and fall of European Communism: 1917-1991

Map of Communist History

Geopolitical 1960s-1980s: from a bipolar to a multipolar world The rise of the integrated Europe, Japan, China Proliferation of independent states 1945 – 50 states 2005 – 191 The superpowers were losing control In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed as a state and

was replaced by 15 new independent states The US moved to assume a hegemonic position (a

unipolar world?)

Military

The stalemate between the superpowers, the stabilizing effect of arms control

The economic burdens of the arms race

The futility of war as a means of policy

The rise of new pacifism - antiwar, antimilitarist movements - around the world (1960s-1980s)

Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union

Negotiating an end to the Cold War The threat of nuclear war as the overriding issue The Cold War was undermining the Soviet system

The economic burden A militarized state ensured bureaucratic paralysis: society

lacked basic freedoms, the state was losing its capacity to govern

The atmosphere of confrontation with the West was stifling impulses for necessary reforms, imposing ideological rigidity

Soviet domination of Eastern Europe was now seen as an obsolete, counterproductive policy. Lessons of Czechoslovakia (1968) and Poland (1980-81). Reforms in Eastern Europe are necessary for Soviet reform.

Solution: New Thinking, a plan to negotiate an end to the Cold War to assure security and free up Soviet and East European potential for reform. “The Sinatra Doctrine”

Gorbachev and Reagan as partners: Time to end the Cold War!

November 1989: crowds of Germans breach the Berlin Wall

When did the Cold War end?

1988: officially declared over by Reagan and Gorbachev (before the fall of European Communism)

1989-91: the fall of European communist regimes

Global capitalism and liberal democracy emerged victorious

Expectations of an era of peace, cooperation and progress

“The End of History” (Francis Fukuyama): the global liberal vision

However…

Since 1991, about 100 wars have taken place in the world

Over 6 mln. people have died, mostly civilians

World’s current armed conflicts, 2008:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/index.html

USA 10,455

Russia 8,400

China 400

France 350

Israel*** 250

UK 200

India*** 65

Pakistan*** 40

North Korea*** 8

Total 20,168

The World’s Nuclear Weapons, 2004 (data from Nuclear Threat Initiative)

*** Estimates

High-income countries account for about 75 per cent of world military spending but only 16 per cent of world population.

The combined military spending of these countries was slightly higher than the aggregate foreign debt of all low-income countries and 10 times higher than their combined levels of official development assistance in 2001.

There is a large gap between what countries are prepared to allocate for: military means to provide security and maintain their global

and regional power status, on the one hand, and to alleviate poverty and promote economic development,

on the other.

Summing up: Most preparations for war are made by rich

countries of the North, While wars are waged in the South, And the main form of warfare is soldiers killing

civilians

Sources of World War IV Ethnopolitical conflicts Problems of transition to capitalism The North-South gap Competition for resources (energy, water, food) The ecological crisis Terrorism Interstate rivalries, economic and political The emergence of radical Islamist ideologies 9/11 as the “tipping point” to World War IV

The US acts as the hegemonic power Radical Islam and “rogue states” are in the role of

“the enemy” Promotion of liberal democracy “The unipolar moment” Unilateralism vs. multilateralism Determination to preserve US hegemony Rivals: rising centres of global power

EU China, India Brazil and others Russia

Use of force is becoming more frequent and larger in scale: invasions, terrorist attacks

The new concept of “preventive war” Militarization of space Dismantling of arms control, proliferation of nukes The danger that nuclear weapons may be used is

considered higher than in the Cold War New hi-tech weapons The war in people’s minds: ideas and beliefs,

religion A new culture of war?

"This fourth world war, I think, will last considerably longer than either World Wars I or II did for us. Hopefully not the full four-plus decades of the Cold War.“ – James Woolsey,

former Director of CIA*

*http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war

The era of global warfare has not ended: it has moved on to its next stage

Was “the post-Cold War world” (1989-2001) merely a pause between World Wars III and IV?

The interactions between integration and conflict in world politics Conflict and integration are inseparable from each other Integration has generated new conflicts They are undermining integration Will conflicts converge to produce large-scale warfare on global scale? At what level of conflict will the world achieve more viable and humane

forms of integration?

2 centuries of peace thinking “There never was a good war, or a bad peace.”

Benjamin Franklin, 1783 “War appears to be as old as mankind, but peace is a

modern invention.” Sir Henry Maine, 19th-century British juristAfter WW I and II, attempts were made to build a peaceful world

orderDuring the Cold War, important steps were takenAfter the Cold War?Some progress, but soon the interest shifted to the perceived

need to fight new types of war – humanitarian interventions, then anti-terrorism

Finally, after 9/11, a rollback from arms control and international cooperation

ISSUES Sources of conflict, including the war culture Tools of war-making Peace-building Who will do it? Governments are responsible But how can citizens intervene?