the commodity edge short term update 20111010

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011

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Bottom line: Gold & Silver should continue the steep fall. One more down leg pending forbase metals in coming days.

MCX GOLD: DAILY CHART

h April May June July August September November

10000x10

30

40

50

60

7080

90Relative Strength Index (45.2567)

20000

20500

21000

21500

22000

22500

23000

23500

24000

24500

25000

25500

26000

26500

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

3

4

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

a

b

c

b

c ?

28400

26470

(v)

5

a 25553

24600

i

ii

iii

iv ?

GOLD MCX (26,275.00, 26,378.00, 26,255.00, 26,350.00, +131.00)

Wave Analysis

Last week for MCX Gold, we mentioned that prices are trading in the corrective wave C.Prices are still consolidating within a small symmetrical triangle formed near Rs. 26470level.

Prices should see some more consolidation here and then they should move below Rs.25553level, so as to confirm the corrective pattern.

A move below 25500 should open up way down for 24600 levels. Prices might take some shortterm support here at this level, which is also at the upward sloping trend line.

For now sell on rallies for a fall towards 25500 followed by 24600.

The Commodit Edge Short Term Update

October 10, 2w.wavescapital.com


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MCX SILVER: DAILY CHART

2010 2011 February March April May June July August September October

50

Relative Strength Index (42.9591)

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

i

ii

iii

iv

v

B

i

iii?

iv?

A =C Target

49690

54700

43000

A

ii

Silver Daily (52,603.00, 53,535.00, 52,566.00, 53,223.00, +926.000)

Wave Analysis

As mentioned in the last report, MCX Silver made a low of Rs.49690 and then again gave apull back up to Rs.54700. this suggests that internal (iv)th wave of C is complete.

Further we expect prices to move within the range of Rs.54700/Rs.50000 and later they shouldgive a break below Rs.50000, so as to confirm the completion of the corrective wave C.

As per the equality principle, wave C is likely to fall up to Rs.43000 (A=C). In the near term,Rs.54700 will act as a strong resistance for Silver.

At present, MCX Silver can be sold on rallies to Rs.54700 for a target of Rs. 50000/49700.


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MCX CRUDE : DAILY CHARTANTICIPATED ON 19TH SEPT

ecember 2011 February March April May June July August September October Nov

20

30

40

50

60

70


3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

4457

3820

S

H

S

a

b

c

X

a

b ?

c ?

CRUDE MCX (3,963.00, 4,030.00, 3,951.00, 4,002.00, + 30.00)

HAPPENED

2011 February March April May June July August September October November

20

30

40

50

60

70


3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

4457

3820

S

H

S

a

b

c

X

a

b ?

c ?

CRUDE MCX (4,046.00, 4,076.00, 4,035.00, 4,071.00, + 36.00)


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Wave Analysis

In the previous update, we said, any break below 4100 should invite a steep fall towards anew low. Initially Rs. 3820 might offer some support for the prices and any fall below thislevel will drag the prices lower up to Rs.3370/Rs.3365.

The prices did try to break below the level of 3820, but were unable to sustain there for longand again gave a pull back on the higher side. Currently the prices are taking resistance near4100 level, which is a crucial level. Prices should now see a downfall and should move below3820 to confirm the completion of the last leg of correction, i.e., wave C.

Ideally prices should move below 3820 towards the target region of 3370 in the coming weeks.


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MCX COPPER: DAILY CHARTANTICIPATED ON 19TH SEPT

0 27 4

July

11 18 25 1

August

8 16 22 29 5

September

12 19 26 3

October

10 17 24 31 7

November

20

30

40

50

60


325330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420425

430

435

440

445

450

b

c X

Y ?

386

429

a

b

c ?

i

ii

iv

iii

v

I

II

i

ii

iii

iv?

v ?III ?

IV ?

V ?

340

COPPER MCX (362.80, 377.00, 362.80, 36 8.95, +6.40)

HAPPENED

13 20 27 4

July

11 18 25 1

August

8 16 22 29 5

September

12 19 26 3

October

10 17 24 3

20

30

40

50

60


325

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

425430

435

440

445

450

b

c X

Y ?

386

429

a

b

c ?

i

ii

iv

iii

v

I

II

i

ii

iii

iv

III

V ?

340

IV

COPPER MCX (360.00, 360.65, 359.20, 36 0.30, +1.05)


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Wave Analysis

In our last update, we mentioned that, we should see a steep fall now in the copper prices.We also said that the internal wave counts on copper daily chart suggest that prices havesome more downside pending. Any rallies towards 375/386 will now be capped for a fall

towards the target of 340 or even lower.

The prices behaved exactly in the similar manner this week (denoted by a circle). Prices arecurrently taking resistance near Rs.355/358. Prices should trade below these levels for sometime and then we can expect a fall below 340 or even lower, which will confirm the completionofY.


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the commodity edge short term update 20111010

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