the consumer voice for renewable energy activities meet quarterly internet yahoo chat group
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HREG. The Renewable Energy Solution. The Consumer Voice for Renewable Energy Activities Meet Quarterly Internet Yahoo Chat Group Annual Houston Solar Tour Earth Day Booths Educate Houston Non-profit, local section of the Texas Solar Energy Society (TXSES). Houston Renewable Energy Group. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
HREG1
• The Consumer Voice for Renewable Energy
• Activities– Meet Quarterly
– Internet Yahoo Chat Group
– Annual Houston Solar Tour
– Earth Day Booths
– Educate Houston
• Non-profit, local section of the Texas Solar Energy Society (TXSES)
www.txses.org/hreg
The Renewable Energy Solution
written by Chris Boyer 2006
Houston Renewable Energy Group
HREG2
US Energy Demand Growing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Tota
l US
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (Q
uads
/yr)
0.E+00
1.E+08
2.E+08
3.E+08
4.E+08
5.E+08
6.E+08
Pop
ulat
ion
Energy ConsumptionEIA PredictionPEW Low CasePEW High CasePopulation
HREG3
The Energy Problem1. Rising cost of
fossil fuel extraction
2. Trade deficit3. War over finite
resources4. Pollution and
climate change5. Threat of nuclear
proliferation and waste disposal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Wor
ld A
nnua
l Oil
Con
sum
ptio
n (Q
uad
Btu
/yr)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Oil
Res
erve
s (Q
uad
Btu
)
Consumption - Data Consumption - Model PredictedTotal Reserves Unknown Reserves
HREG4
The Renewables Solution
• Direct Solar• Wind• Hydro• Biomass• Geothermal
• Its Plentiful• Its Everywhere• It lasts “forever”• Its Healthy• Its Safe
HREG5
All the energy we use could be supplied by Renewables!
HREG6
Solar Energy80,000 Terawatts of Solar Power fall on the Earth
constantly, compared to 14.5 Terawatts current used for human power.
• Solar Electricity – Photovolatics (PV)• Solar Thermal Heating
– Hot water – residential and commercial– Utility Steam & Electricity– Cooking
• Solar Building Design– Shade & venting– Solar heating
HREG7
Solar Thermal
HREG8
Solar Thermal: Hot Water• Hot Water roof systems
subsidize hot water.
• $500 to $6,000 for system
• Last ~20 years
• 1 to 2 ft2 of panel for each gallon used per day.
• 4 yr payback
• If hot water use does not match solar availability, economics is not so attractive.
Panels
Pump
Tank
Controller
HREG9
Solar Thermal: Utility Electricity
$1million/MWp Capital Investment20-60% Capacity Factor (100% with N.G. Hybrid)5000 acres for a 1 GW plant
HREG10
Solar Photovoltaic
HREG11
Solar PV Integrated into Structures
HREG12
Solar PV: Grid Connected• $6000 to $10,000 per
kWp Power Installed – 50% Modules
– 25% Inverter
– 25% Installation
• $1 to $0.18/kWh– Sun Hours/day
– Interest Rate
– Incentives
• 1 kW ~ 100 ft2 @ noon
Inverter
Voltage(DC)
Voltage(AC)
PV arrayElectric grid
Goal is $3000/kWp installed,or ~$0.10/kWh by 2025
HREG13
Advancing Solar PV Technology
• Silicon– Crystalline– Polycrystalline– Amorphous– Ribbon– Nanocrystalline
• CdTe • GaAs• CIS/CIGS• Dye-Sensitized• Organic
• Wafer P-N Junction• Thin Film P-N Junction• Multi-Junction• Quantum Dots• Photoelectrochemical
New Materials New Structures
Related Technologies-digital camera-LEDs-Solid state lasers
HREG14
P-N Junction Solar Cell Structure
HREG15
Photochemical Cell Structure
Structure for high-efficiency (50%) organic PV cell basedon a nanostructured substrate onto which thin layers of molecular multi-junctions are grown and anchored onto the nanostructure surface. The red circle denotes an electron acceptor; the blue square, an electron donor; and the yellow circle, a metal nanoparticle.
HREG16
PV cost as a function of Efficiency
HREG17
Improvements in Cell Efficiency
HREG18
Solar PV: What & Where
75
95
195
1100
60
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Consumer Products
Comm. & Signal
Off-Grid Res&Com
Grid Connected
Central Utility
MW/yr
2000
2005
486991
5371.3
12232
5
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Si Single CrystalSi Polycrystal
Si RibbonSi Amorphous
Si Amor/CrystalCdTe
CIS
MW/yr
HREG19
Solar PV: Who0 100 200 300 400 500
Sharp (J)
Q-Cells(E)
Kyocera (J)
Sanyo (J)
Mitsubishi (J)
Schott Solar (E)
BP Solar (US,E)
SunTech (Ch)
Motech (Tw)
Shell Solar (US,E)
Isofoton (E)
Deutsche Cell (E)
E-ton (Tw)
Photowatt (E)
Sunpower (Ph)
Others (<20 MW)
Cell Production, MW/yr in 2005
(Ever-Q)
HREG20
Learning Curve for PV Production
HREG21
Potential US Solar PV Growth
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve I
nst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(GW
)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ce
ll P
rod
uct
ion
, GW
/yr
Actual World Growth 44%
Prediction based on 20 to 25% annual growth.
Note: Capacity factor is 0.2
HREG22
Wind Energy• 60 GW Installed in the
world by 2005• Growing 20%/yr worldwide• $1million/MW Cost• Capacity factor 0.47• Clean; no water needed• Dual Land Use• 1000 GW possible in the US• Each tower is 1 to 3 MW.
HREG23
Tale of 2 GW
Nuclear Wind
HREG24
Too Many Wind Towers?
One coal plant equals about 1500 Wind towers. Over a Million oil and gas wells were drilled in Texas at a cost of ~ $1 Million each. The same as the price of a wind tower.
A Million Wind Towers would equal over 600 coal fired plants. There are ~50 coal plants in Texas
HREG25
Wind: Who & Where
34
17
15
11
6
4
3
2
2
2
4
0 10 20 30 40
Vestas
Gamesa
Enercon
GE Wind
Siemens
Suzlon
REPower
Mitsubishi
Ecotecnia
Nordex
Others
Market Share
Company Country34.7
17.2
14.1
6.4
6.3
2.6
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.6
10.8
0 10 20 30 40
Germany
Spain
US
Denmark
India
Italy
Netherlands
Japan
UK
China
Others
Share of Cumulative Installations
Data from year 2004: BTM World Market Update
HREG26
Potential US Wind Growth
1
10
100
1000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Cu
mu
lati
ve I
nsta
lled
Win
d C
ap
acit
y (
GW
)
Actual
Current Trend
Aggressive Growth
EIA Prediction
NREL Goal
HREG27
Biomass Energy
• Sources:– Energy crops– Crop residue– Animal manure– Municipal Solid Waste– Forrest waste
• 1/2 the energy/lb of coal.• 10 Quads/yr available in US• Crop considerations:
– water usage– fertilizer requirements– soil depletion.
Corn is bad
Switchgrass is good
HREG28
Biomass Energy Pathways• Direct Combustion1. Solids Heat
2. Solids Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
• Direct Extraction• Oils & fats Esterification Biodiesel• Certain plants Solvent Extraction Isoprenoid hydrocarbons
3. Biochemical4. Plant matter Hydrolysis Fermentation Ethanol
5. Organic sludge Anerobic digestion Biogas CHP or H2
6. Thermochemical7. Organic matter Pyrolysis biogas or bio-oil
8. Organic matter Gasification Syngas CHP, FT Liquids, MeOH/DME, EtOH, or H2
BEST!
FAIR
POOR
POOR
HREG29
Ethanol• US produced 3.4 billion
gallons in 2005.
• 85 US Companies, most sized at 20-60 million gal/yr, ADM has over a billion gal/yr capacity.
• Brazil made 4.2 billion gal in ‘05.
• China & Europe made 1 billion gal in ‘05
• Produces a fuel compatible with existing infrastructure
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
Ga
llon
s
6.5 Billion Gallons, or 5% of Gasoline
12 Billion Gallon, land limit. ~10%
Energy Return is ~4 out : 3 in.Solar land efficiency of ethanol is very low at < 0.1%.Competes for water and land use.
HREG30
Hydro Energy• Cheapest source of
Electricity $0.02/kWh• 200 GW in US by 2005• US developed about
40% of potential; inhibited by environmental concerns.
• Capacity factor 0.5Tidal
Wave
Hoover Dam
HREG31
Hydro Production Cycles in US
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1987 1994 2001 2008
Hy
dro
Ge
ne
rati
on
(T
Wh
/yr)
El Nino cycles
HREG32
Geothermal Energy• Free heat • Environmental
concerns• Non-
sustainable – ground cools.
The Earth’s core is hot from decay of nuclear materials.
HREG33
US Energy Flows 2002 (Quad)
Source: LLNL, EIA-DOE
56.2 Wasted
35.2 Used
HREG34
The Renewable Energy Solution
US Practical Potential for RE energy by 2025 to 2050with existing technology.
Source GWp Cap.Fact. Quads of Work/yrSolar 2000 0.2 10.7Wind 1000 0.47 12.6Biomass 336 0.25 (effic.) 2.3Hydro 300 0.5 4.0Geothermal 100 0.8 2.1
TOTAL 31.7
RE can cover 90% of the 35 Quads of Work used today.
Note: 1 Quad of Fossil Fuel is ~0.3 to 0.1 Quad of useful work. 1 Quad of Renewable Electricity is 0.9 Quad of useful work.
HREG35
Other Energy “Solutions”
• Unconventional Oil– Tar sands– Shale Oil
• Stranded Natural Gas
• Coal
• Nuclear
The Future Value of Such Investments is NEGATIVE!
Polluted water Polluted airHabitat destructionClimate changeLimited Resources Compete for waterEasy terrorist targetsMonopolized marketsWaste of capitalExpensive energy
HREG36
Pathway to Sustainable Energy
• Phase I Achieved! 1975-2005– Economical Renewable Energy Solutions Realized
– Incubation of the RE industry.
• Phase II Achievable by 2025-2050– Up to 25% of electric load can be supported by
renewables without energy storage.
– Shift transportation from oil to electric.
– Technology improvements lower RE cost.
• Phase III Achievable by 2050-2100– Incorporate energy storage to achieve 100% R.E.
– Disruptive renewable energy inventions bring costs lower
HREG37
Action Items – For NOW• Practice Energy Conservation
• Switch to a “Green” Electric Provider.
• Buy Electric Vehicles and Biofuels
• Make investments in Solar and Wind projects/ companies.
• Vote for politicians with platforms promoting “Sustainability”
• Inform the public about the wind and solar energy solution.