the context of forest management & economics, modeling ...€¦ · forest resource in question...
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The Context of Forest Management & Economics,
Modeling Fundamentals
Lecture 1 (03/27/2017)
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About the Instructor
• Teaching: inspire students to be curious but critical learners who can think for themselves and nurture creative ideas
• Research: quantify resource tradeoffs and production possibilities to aid natural resource management decision
• Training: forest engineering, operations research and forest management science
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Forest Management• Definition: Forest management is the
science of making decisions about forests at different levels (stand-, forest-, landscape-, national-, and global levels) in order to bring the current state of the forest resource in question to a desired state, while at the same time providing the public (or the private landowner) with a balanced combination of benefits they demand.
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The Benefit Bundle of Forests
Forests can be far more than wood
Wood
CarbonWater Stability
Biodiversity
Food
Erosion control
RecreationPollution mitigation
Pharmaceuticals
Source: Toth, S. and T. Payn. 2006. Realizing Non-Timber Forest Benefits.Unpublished presentation.
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The decision making processin natural resources management
Data collectionData processing
Decision tools togenerate manage-ment alternatives
Demonstration/visualization ofalternatives &
tradeoffs
ConsensusBuilding
Decision•Remote Sensing•Field Surveys•Permanent Plots•Questionnaires
•Delphi-process•Nominal GroupTechnique
ImplementationMonitoring
Natural Science Management Science Social science
•Optimization•Simulation•Economics•Finance
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2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
2.45
2.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Mature forest habitat (ha)
Prof
it (m
illio
n $)
Management Alternatives and Consensus Building
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Models to Solve Natural Resource Problems
• Descriptive models– What’s there? – patterns – What’s happening? – processes– Spatial and temporal interactions– Measurements, monitoring– Statistical models
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Models to Solve Natural Resource Problems (cont.)
• Predictive models– What happens if we do this vs. that? – Simulation, stochastic model, scenario
analyses, etc.• Prescriptive models
– What is the best course of action? – Optimization
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How do descriptive, predictive and prescriptive models work together?
Descriptions
Predictions
Prescriptions
Image source: Mark McGregor, USDA Forest Service, Bugwood.org
•Where are the insects?•Where are the damaged trees?•Intensity of damages•Host selection behavior•Population dynamics•Stand susceptibility and risk
•Projected spatial dispersal•Expected insect and host res-
ponse to treatments
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The role of decision models
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Models and Model Building Fundamentals
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Models
• Abstract representations of the real world• Lack insignificant details• Can help better understand the key
relations in the system/problem• Useful for forecasting and decision making
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Model types
• Scale models (e.g., model airplane)• Pictorial models (photographs, maps)• Flow charts: illustrate the interrelationships
among components• Mathematical models
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f
d
a e
b
c A B C D E FA 1 0 0 1 1 0B 1 1 1 1 0C 1 1 1 0D 1 0 1E 1 0F 1
a(5ac)
d(12ac)
f(5ac)
b(4ac)
e(9ac)
c(6ac)
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1. : (where i = a, b, c, d or e)
denote the decision whetherstand i should be cut or not.
i
Decision variablesLet xA
(5ac)
d(12ac)
f(5ac)
B(4ac)
E(9ac)
c(6ac)
a(5ac)
b(4ac)
e(9ac)
1 if stand i is to be cut,and 0 otherwise; {0,1}.
i
i i
Let xx x
i
2. :
Let c denote the financial return from cutting stand i.
Objetive
a a b b c c d d e e f fMax Z c x c x c x c x c x c x
, where N={a,b,c,d,e,f}i ii N
c x
d(12ac)
a(5ac)
b(4ac)
e(9ac)
f(5ac)
c(6ac)
d(12ac)
a(5ac)
b(4ac)
e(9ac)
Objective: Maximize financial return
from cutting the stands
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3. :Adjacent stands are not allowed to be cut.
Constraints
i ii N
Max Z c x
to:
1a e
subjectx x
A B C D E FA 1 0 0 1 1 0B 1 1 1 1 0C 1 1 1 0D 1 0 1E 1 0F 1
f(5ac)
c(6ac)
d(12ac)
a(5ac)
b(4ac)
e(9ac)
1a dx x 111
b c
b d
b e
x xx xx x
11
c d
c e
x xx x
1d fx x
1b c dx x x
1b c ex x x
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1d fx x
1b c dx x x 1b c ex x x
i ii N
Max Z c x
:
1a e
subject tox x
1a dx x
{0,1}ix
f(5ac)
c(6ac)
d(12ac)
a(5ac)
b(4ac)
e(9ac)
A mathematical program:
Objectivefunction(s)
Constraints
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Mathematical models
• The most abstract• Concise• Can be solved by efficient algorithms
using electronic computers,• Thus, very powerful.
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Good Modeling Practices
• The quality of input data determines the quality of output data
• The nature of the management problem determines the choice of the model (not the other way around)
Ask:• Is the model to be used to simulate,
evaluate, optimize, or describe the system or phenomenon?
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Good Modeling Practices (cont.)
• What is the scale, resolution and extent of the problem?
• What are the outputs (results) of the model?
• What are these results used for?• Who will use them?
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Optimization Models• Deterministic vs. probabilistic optimization• Convex vs. non-convex problems• Constrained vs. unconstrained optimization• Exact vs. ad-hoc (heuristic) optimization• Static vs. sequential (dynamic) decisions• Single vs. multi-objective optimization• Single vs. multiple decision makers• Single vs. multiple players (games)