the costly greek lignite and the fossil fuels outlook

The Costly Greek LigniteAnd

The Fossil Fuels Outlook

Dr Marios LeonardosPublic Power Corporation, Greece

Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016

Greek lignite deposits characteristics

! Relatively small deposits separated by faults

! Deep deposits

! Extremely low LQV

! High stripping ratio

! Zebra type lignite

! Presence of hard layers in the overburden (blasting required)


European LignitesStripping ratio (t/m3) ø LQV (kJ/Kg)


Lignite Cost Benchmarking

MineProduction

Mt/y

LigniteCost€/t

StrippingRatiot/m³

ExcavationCost€/m³

Fuel Cost€/Gcal

Mini Maritsa Iztok/BG 33 9,8 4,0 2,06 6,3Kolubara, Serbia 30 13,3 2,2 3,83 7,0

Freedom, North Dakota USA 15 13,0 5,2 2,20 3,5Belchatow, Poland (OPEX) 40 9,6 2,6 2,92 6,4

Schleenhain Mine / Germany 11 12,0 3,0 3,00 4,6MIBRAG (all mines- OPEX) 19,6 10,0 4,0 2,05 3,8

Rovinari / Romania 6,3 14,8 5,3 2,44 9,2Visonta/Bűkkabany /

Hungary 8,15 15,0 6,9 1,96 8,8

Greek Lignite Mines 48 15,3 4,8 2,70 12,9


Lignite Cost BenchmarkingExcavation Cost Stripping Ratio

€/m³ t/m³


Lignite Cost as Fuel€/Gcal


Power Balance TWhGreek Interconnected System


Greek Lignite MinesStripping Ratio m³/t


Greek Lignite - Fuel Cost €/Gcal


Electricity generationFuel Cost Comparison

Ngas Hard CoalPPC

LignitePPC

LignitePPC

LigniteMaritsa

2016 2016 2015 PTOL V PTOL V Bulgaria

E/Gcal Th 15,2 8,0 14,7 14,7 12,0 6,3

E/MWh Th 17,7 6,9 12,6 12,6 10,3 5,4

Efficiency Factor % 56,0 46,0 32,6 46,0 46,0 40,0

E/MWh el 31,6 15,0 38,8 27,5 22,4 13,5


Ριζική ανατροπή στο ενεργειακό πλάνο της χώρας, από το οποίο

διαγράφονται οριστικά οι πέντε σχεδιαζόμενες λιθανθρακικές μονάδεςηλεκτροπαραγωγής, ενώ θα συνεχιστεί το... εμπάργκο σε ανάλογα πυρηνικά εργοστάσια, επιφέρει ο νέος επί της Ανάπτυξης υπουργός Κωστής Χατζηδάκης.Την αποκάλυψη αυτή, που προκαλεί ήδη έντονες συζητήσεις τόσο στη ΔΕΗ όσο και σε ιδιώτες επιχειρηματίες που προχωρούσανσε επενδύσεις σε ηλεκτροπαραγωγικές μονάδες λιθάνθρακα, έκανε χθες το μεσημέρι έγκυρη πηγή του υπ. Ανάπτυξης.

n «Δεν είναι στις προτεραιότητές μας οι λιθανθρακικές μονάδες, και λόγω τωναντιδράσεων στη δημιουργία τους των τοπικών κοινωνιών ούτε οι πυρηνικές», ανέφερε η κορυφαία αυτή πηγή του υπουργείου Ανάπτυξης.Εσπευσε δε να διαβεβαιώσει, με αφορμή σχετικά επίμονα ερωτήματα των δημοσιογράφων, πως δεν πρόκειται να υπάρξειπρόβλημα επάρκειας ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας φέτος, καθώς και οι υδροηλεκτρικοί σταθμοί είναι «γεμάτοι», ενώ κάθε αύξηση στηζήτηση θα αντιμετωπιστεί και με την ανάπτυξη μονάδων αεριοστροβίλων, σε τοποθεσίες όπου παρατηρείται αιχμή στηνκατανάλωση.


GREEK LIGNITES AND EU POLICIES

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

LIGNITE PRODUCTION (Mt/year)


Ptolemais basin mining area consisted of several deposits("Fields"), scheduled to be mined according to Stripping Ratio, Lignite Quality, Size, Position andProduction Requirements

We now exploit the LAST three deposits and PPC Mines are seeking a complete depositexploitation.Reasons:

• Obligation from mining concession• Lignite cost• Environment


Mining cost is minimum at the end of a lignite field miningoperation


Significantenvironmentalimpact forPtolemais basinregion in case theplanned sequenceof the mining fieldswill not becompletedsmoothly.

The ground surfacewill not be restoredto a usable form.

The Company (orthe country) willpay an unbearablecost to correct the

situation.


TPPCOMMI-SSION

DECOMMI-SSION

OPERATIONYEARS

New UnitPTOL5 2019 2061 45

Opt out (17500h)KARDIA1 1975 2018 43KARDIA2 1975 2018 43KARDIA3 1980 2019 39KARDIA4 1981 2019 38

Transitional national planAGIOS DEM1 1984 2029 45AGIOS DEM2 1984 2029 45AGIOS DEM3 1985 2030 45AGIOS DEM4 1986 2031 45AGIOS DEM5 1997 2042 45

Opt out (17500h)AMYNT1 1987 2018 31AMYNT2 1987 2018 31


0

100200

300

400500

600700

800

9001000

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058

Mt PTOLEMAIS AMYNTAION

Depletion of Lignite Deposits in Ptolemaisand Amyntaion Basins

Reserves (Mt) 2014 2020 2061PTOLEMAIS 788 621 87AMYNTAION 83 60 60


Problems from the transitional national plan

! Cost of investments for TPPs upgrade (170 M €)! TPPs increased operating costs

Other problems from early decommission of Kardia andAmyntaion TPP (March / 2018)

! Power 1800 MW suddenly lost from the system! Gap in electricity production (PTOL5 to be ready 2019 - 20)! Decommission before 45 years! District heating in Amyntaion area lost! Gap in district heating Ptolemais city

Solution

Increase of operating hours from 17500 to 32000.


Fossil Fuels Future


Climate Action

Paris Agreement

A legally binding, universal agreement

189 nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

Ambitious long-term goals

Dynamic 5-year ambition cycle

Enhanced transparency and accountability

Greater emphasis on adaptation

Support for poor and vulnerable countries


• Coal and gas prices to stay low.• Wind and solar costs fall sharply.

• Fossil fuel power attracts $2.1 trillion. Investment in coal and gas generation willcontinue, predominantly in emerging economies. Some $1.2 trillion will go into newcoal-burning capacity, and $892 billion into new gas-fired plants.

• But renewables take lion's share. Some $7.8 trillion will be invested in greenpower.

• On top of the $7.8 trillion, the world would need to invest another $5.3 trillion inzero-carbon power by 2040 to prevent CO2 in the atmosphere rising above 450 ppm.

• Electric car boom supports electricity demand.

• Small-scale battery storage, a $250 billion market.

• China coal-fired generation will follow weaker trend than previouslyprojected.

• That makes India the key to the future global emissions trend. Itselectricity demand is forecast to grow 3.8 times between 2016 and 2040. Despite investing$611 billion in renewables in the next 24 years, and $115 billion in nuclear, it willcontinue to rely heavily on coal power stations to meet rising demand.

• Renewables to dominate in Europe, to overtake gas in the US. Wind, solar, hydroand other renewable energy plants will generate 70% of Europe's power in 2040. In the US,their share will jump from 14% in 2015 to 44% in 2040, as that from gas slips from 33% to31%.


Annual electricity output by the major generating technologies,2016-40, thousand TWh

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO 2016


From the fossil fuels surplus we can infer that low prices willstay for the next decade

Nuclear energy returns with new technologies, safer andcheaper


Fission reactor. Proven, affordable, safe and clean


Thank you


the costly greek lignite and the fossil fuels outlook

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