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THE CRB COMMODITY YEARBOOK2005

Commodity Research Bureau

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Copyright © 2005 by Commodity Research Bureau. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New JerseyPublished simultaneously in Canada.

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ISBN 13 978-0-471-70768-4ISBN 10 0-471-70768-6

Printed in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

CRB believes that the information and opinions contained herein are reliable, but CRB does not make any warrantieswhatsoever, expressed or implied, and CRB assumes no liability for reliance on or use of information and opinioncontained herein.

Commodity Research Bureau Editorial Board

Publisher Editor in ChiefDavidson C. Lowdon Christopher J. Lown

Contributing Author Associate EditorRichard W. Asplund Amy L. Kelley

Commodity Research Bureau330 South Wells Street, Suite 612Chicago, Illinois 60606-7110 USA800.621.5271 or 312.554.8456Fax: 312.939.4135Website: www.crbtrader.comEmail: [email protected]

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165 Magnesium166 Manganese168 Meats172 Mercury174 Milk176 Molasses178 Molybdenum179 Nickel180 Oats184 Olive Oil185 Onions186 Oranges and Orange Juice189 Palm Oil191 Paper192 Peanuts and Peanut Oil196 Pepper198 Petroleum203 Plastics205 Platinum-Group Metals210 Pork Bellies214 Potatoes218 Rayon and Other Synthetic Fibers220 Rice223 Rubber228 Rye230 Salt231 Sheep and Lambs233 Silk234 Silver239 Soybean Meal243 Soybean Oil248 Soybeans254 Stock Index Futures, U.S.262 Stock Index Futures, Worldwide266 Sugar272 Sulfur273 Sunflowerseed and Oil275 Tall Oil276 Tallow and Greases278 Tea279 Tin283 Titanium285 Tobacco288 Tung Oil289 Tungsten290 Turkeys293 Uranium295 Vanadium296 Vegetables300 Wheat and Flour311 Wool314 Zinc

PAGE 1 Aluminum5 Antimony6 Apples7 Arsenic8 Barley11 Bauxite12 Bismuth13 Broilers14 Butter16 Cadmium17 Canola (Rapeseed)20 Cassava21 Castor Beans22 Cattle and Calves29 Cement30 Cheese32 Chromium33 Coal36 Cobalt37 Cocoa42 Coconut Oil and Copra44 Coffee49 Coke50 Copper56 Corn63 Corn Oil64 Cotton72 Cottonseed and Products76 CRB Futures Index78 Currencies86 Diamonds87 Eggs91 Electric Power93 Fertilizers (Nitrogen, Phosphate & Potash)95 Fish98 Flaxseed and Linseed Oil102 Fruits104 Gas107 Gasoline111 Gold116 Grain Sorghum118 Hay119 Heating Oil123 Hides and Leather126 Hogs131 Honey132 Interest Rates, U.S.143 Interest Rates, Worldwide149 Iron and Steel154 Lard156 Lead160 Lumber and Plywood

TABLE OF CONTENTSPAGE 6T The Commodity Price Trend

8T CRB Indexes26T Major Commodity Bull Market Continues in 200428T Crude Oil Price have Nearly Tripled in Last 3 Years30T US Trade Deficit Drives Weak Dollar & Strong Commodities33T US Economy in 2004 Shows Strong Growth35T World Economy in 2004 Shows Improvement36T World Trade and Globalization Continue to Surge37T China Continues to Drive World Commodity Prices38T Futures and Options Volume Statistics, U.S.48T Futures and Options Volume Statistics, Worldwide60T Conversion Factors317 Yearbooks CD Instructions

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330 South Wells Street, Suite 612 Chicago, IL 60606-7110

Phone: 800.621.5271 or 312.554.8456

Fax: 312.939-4135 E-mail: [email protected]

5T

The editors wish to thank the following for source material:

Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Futures Industry Association (FIA)American Bureau of Metal Statistics, Inc. (ABMS) International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)American Forest & Paper Association (AF & PA) International Rubber Study Group (IRSG)The American Gas Association (AGA) Johnson MattheyAmerican Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT)American Metal Market (AMM) Leather Industries of AmericaBureau of the Census MidAmerica Commodity Exchange (MidAm)Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) National Coffee Association of U.S.A., Inc. (NCA)Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME / IMM / IOM) New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE / NYFE / FINEX)Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX)Commodity Futures Trading Commision (CFTC) Oil WorldThe Conference Board The Organisation for Economic Co-OperationEconomic Research Service (ERS) and Development (OECD)Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Random LengthsE D & F Man Cocoa Ltd The Silver InstituteFarm Service Agency (FSA) The Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc. (SPI)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis United Nations (UN)Fiber Economics Bureau, Inc. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)Florida Department of Citrus United States Geological Survey (USGS)Food and Agriculture Organization of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) the United Nations (FAO) Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

6T

THE COMMODITY PRICE TRENDThe Reuters-Commodity Research Bureau Futures In-

dex in 2004 closed the year up +11.2% at 283.90. That wasthe third consecutive yearly gain and followed the +8.9%gain in 2003 and the +23.0% gain in 2002. In the previousrecessionary year of 2001, the Reuters-CRB Futures Indexfell –16.3%.

Four of the six Reuters-CRB Futures Price Sub-indicesposted gains in 2004: Softs (+37.2%), Livestock (+27.7%),Energy (+27.5%), and Precious Metals (+8.9%). Two of thesix Sub-indices posted declines: Grains (-21.6%) and theIndustrials (-9.6%). The only real weakness in commodityprices in 2004 was tied to a sharp decline in soybean, corn,wheat and cotton prices as ideal summer growing condi-tions led to bumper crops.

The Reuters-CRB Futures Index was driven higher in2004 by the weakness in the dollar, strong commodity de-mand from the US and China, and the sharp rally in oilprices. Crude oil futures prices in 2004 soared by 34% to aclose of $43.45 per barrel. Meanwhile, the dollar index fellsharply by –7.2% in 2004, which boosted the price of realgoods such as commodities. US GDP growth was strong in2004 at +4.4%, and Chinese GDP growth remained ex-tremely strong at +9.5%.

EnergyThe Reuters-CRB Futures Price Energy Sub-index,

which is comprised of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and NaturalGas, accounts for 18% of the overall Index. The EnergySub-index in 2004 closed +27.5% yr/yr, adding to the +11.9%gain seen in 2003 and the +56.5% gain seen in 2002. Crudeoil and heating oil showed sharp gains during the year, whilenatural gas closed slightly lower on the year by –0.6% yr/yr. Crude oil rallied sharply during 2004 due to very strongdemand, lagging oil production, and Hurricane Ivan in Sep-tember which reduced US oil production in the Gulf ofMexico by about 25% for several months by damaging un-der-water pipelines.

GrainsThe Reuters-CRB Futures Price Grains and Oilseeds

Sub-index, which is comprised of Corn, Soybeans, andWheat, accounts for 18% of the overall Index. The Grainsand Oilseeds Sub-index in 2004 closed –21.6% yr/yr, fallingback after the sharp gains of +19.9% in 2003 and +18.4% in2002. Soybean, corn and wheat prices plunged in the latterhalf of 2004 as it became obvious that ideal growing condi-tions in the US in the summer of 2004 would be ideal andwould lead to bumper crops. There were record corn andsoybean crops, and wheat prices were hurt by a large cropand heavy export competition.

IndustrialsThe Reuters-CRB Futures Price Industrials Sub-in-

dex, which is comprised of Copper and Cotton, accountsfor 12% of the overall Index. The Industrials Sub-indexshowed a –9.6% decline in 2004, which reversed part ofthe +45.3% gain seen in 2003 and the +24.5% gain in 2002.Copper soared by 43% in 2004, driven higher by verystrong demand from the US and particularly China, com-bined with lagging mining output. That created a supplydeficit of about 750,000 metric tons in 2004. Cotton, onthe other hand, fell sharply in 2004 due to ideal growingconditions and a record US cotton crop.

LivestockThe Reuters-CRB Futures Price Livestock Sub-index,

which is comprised of Live Cattle and Lean Hogs, accountsfor 12% of the overall Index. The Livestock Sub-indexclosed +27.7% in 2004 following the three previous rela-tively flat years (-5.3% in 2003, +1.4% in 2002, and –2.4%in 2001). Live cattle prices rallied 16% in 2004. AlthoughUS exports to Japan and the rest of Asia remained shutdown in 2004 due to mad cow disease, the US border alsoremained closed to imports from Canada (which reducedsupply) and US consumers showed strong demand for beefduring the year, thus keeping beef prices high. Lean hogprices soared by 43% during 2004, driven higher by strongdomestic and overseas demand and by the lack of muchherd expansion.

Precious MetalsThe Reuters-CRB Futures Price Precious Metals Sub-

index, which is comprised of Gold, Platinum, and Silver,accounts for 17% of the overall Index. The Precious Met-als Sub-index rallied by +8.9% in 2004, adding to the ral-lies of +25.9% seen in 2003 and +17.1% seen in 2002.Bullish factors centered on the weak dollar combined withstrong jewelry and industrial demand due to the relativelystrong world economy.

SoftsThe Reuters-CRB Futures Price Softs Sub-index,

which is comprised of Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, andSugar #11, accounts for 23% of the overall Index. TheSofts Sub-index in 2004 closed sharply higher by +37.2%,more than reversing the sharp –17.5% decline seen in2003. Bullish factors centered on the weak dollar andrelatively strong world demand. In 2004, cocoa closed+2% yr/yr, coffee closed +60%, sugar closed +59%, andorange juice closed +42%. Cocoa production fell about6% in 2004 and coffee production fell by about 9%, thussupporting the prices of cocoa and coffee. There was aproduction deficit of sugar in 2004 of about 1.8 millionmetric tons, which pushed sugar prices higher. Orangejuice soared on the 4 hurricanes that hit the southeast-ern US in 2004 in late summer and early fall, which causeda 33% reduction in the US orange crop in 2004.

7T

xednIserutuFBRC-sretueRylhtnoM )001=7691(esolCdnawoL,hgiHraeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egnaR5991 hgiH 69.732 61.632 98.632 07.732 21.732 00.832 09.532 72.042 18.542 76.242 94.442 74.642 74.642

woL 85.232 79.032 70.132 61.332 55.922 81.232 13.922 17.132 83.932 23.832 58.042 39.042 13.922esolC 87.232 52.432 49.232 03.532 27.232 83.332 32.332 79.932 37.142 22.242 48.142 81.342 ----

6991 hgiH 65.742 12.152 05.352 97.362 42.162 29.252 09.152 40.252 53.052 95.942 80.742 58.642 97.362woL 36.832 26.542 27.242 91.052 97.152 46.642 90.042 38.242 01.342 87.732 99.532 21.832 99.532esolC 35.742 77.842 04.152 90.652 70.452 76.842 99.142 64.942 36.542 38.732 63.342 16.932 ----

7991 hgiH 03.442 19.342 10.842 00.942 97.452 89.942 83.342 03.542 05.442 26.742 25.342 93.832 97.452woL 39.832 41.632 46.142 46.732 45.542 25.832 10.232 96.632 30.042 43.832 72.532 48.822 48.822esolC 99.832 14.242 71.542 92.842 69.052 24.932 57.242 89.142 60.342 40.042 29.532 41.922 ----

8991 hgiH 63.532 80.632 47.132 90.922 76.622 57.612 57.612 84.702 30.502 75.602 37.602 92.791 80.632woL 65.122 79.322 40.322 24.322 30.412 24.802 99.502 81.591 13.691 43.102 81.591 98.781 98.781esolC 82.432 56.722 88.822 99.322 09.512 36.412 00.602 86.591 03.302 82.302 24.591 22.191 ----

9991 hgiH 69.891 54.191 82.391 98.291 99.391 34.391 19.291 95.991 14.902 19.902 45.702 02.602 19.902woL 81.781 67.281 83.381 41.781 50.581 70.581 76.281 41.091 30.991 66.991 32.202 47.002 76.281esolC 47.981 59.281 38.191 93.291 27.681 45.191 63.091 53.991 91.502 25.102 70.402 41.502 ----

0002 hgiH 07.312 92.512 88.712 51.412 21.622 92.722 96.522 20.822 02.232 83.432 64.132 73.332 83.432woL 34.102 47.602 16.902 16.702 68.112 32.222 24.712 67.712 47.422 83.812 39.022 64.522 34.102esolC 64.012 87.802 73.412 30.112 72.222 39.322 16.812 14.722 75.622 82.912 97.922 38.722 ----

1002 hgiH 85.232 43.822 57.522 93.612 92.912 93.212 72.902 09.202 43.202 90.191 47.291 49.391 85.232woL 20.322 86.912 42.012 78.802 34.802 68.302 48.102 20.791 42.881 38.281 38.181 37.781 38.181esolC 21.422 87.122 62.012 05.412 00.902 65.502 07.202 36.991 94.091 66.581 66.291 16.091 ----

2002 hgiH 79.591 35.391 54.502 93.802 33.502 33.902 01.512 42.912 26.922 76.132 38.132 93.832 93.832woL 83.681 91.781 62.291 12.591 24.791 65.991 42.702 64.802 06.712 28.322 92.322 71.032 83.681esolC 92.781 33.291 29.402 61.102 02.402 92.902 79.012 02.912 35.622 19.822 46.032 25.432 ----

3002 hgiH 29.842 95.152 32.742 26.632 61.242 52.832 02.732 47.342 70.642 76.052 45.752 06.362 06.362woL 85.432 93.542 01.822 77.822 62.132 93.132 63.032 69.332 97.632 86.142 97.442 06.942 01.822esolC 54.842 52.742 51.232 35.232 55.532 87.332 12.432 07.342 66.342 85.742 44.842 92.552 ----

4002 hgiH 80.172 20.572 82.582 24.482 49.772 30.282 83.572 01.872 73.582 92.982 94.292 20.192 94.292woL 94.752 49.852 25.072 35.862 08.662 43.462 05.562 02.562 21.962 35.082 02.082 51.672 94.752esolC 75.262 37.472 77.382 45.272 52.772 49.562 87.762 05.672 89.482 07.382 49.092 09.382 ----sretueR:ecruoS

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xednIserutuFBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 29.432 58.332 79.332 61.632 54.332 78.432 34.232 10.632 46.142 10.142 76.242 03.442 11.7326991 22.342 56.842 83.842 48.752 58.752 46.942 88.542 72.842 62.642 65.442 59.142 55.242 29.7427991 75.142 57.932 92.542 06.442 54.052 87.342 03.632 99.042 42.242 76.342 60.042 72.432 19.1428991 69.822 95.032 72.722 26.522 91.122 91.312 68.902 60.202 91.202 57.302 67.102 67.191 81.3129991 94.291 12.781 05.881 38.981 40.091 61.191 61.781 27.691 02.202 88.302 09.302 01.402 77.4910002 56.702 82.112 78.312 92.112 24.022 37.422 15.022 48.022 32.822 63.622 65.622 89.822 60.0221002 03.822 24.322 60.812 34.312 96.412 73.802 89.402 81.002 43.591 02.681 24.881 24.091 89.5022002 44.191 19.091 68.102 47.002 96.102 29.302 24.112 10.412 00.622 25.722 45.822 26.432 60.1123002 40.242 98.742 18.732 37.132 83.732 11.532 50.432 31.832 44.142 51.642 66.052 44.852 47.1424002 56.662 39.462 91.872 84.672 87.272 87.072 14.072 81.172 74.672 63.582 20.682 82.382 12.572

egarevA . :ecruoS sretueR

xednInruteRlatoTBRC-sretueR )001=2891/20/10(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 89.961 25.961 82.271 64.671 13.671 79.671 08.471 88.771 45.181 01.281 42.581 45.781 55.7716991 38.881 42.591 35.891 79.802 07.212 83.802 49.702 82.012 15.012 40.902 17.802 19.012 48.5027991 04.312 43.412 88.022 59.022 12.722 39.222 38.712 07.422 45.622 40.922 80.722 55.322 73.2228991 07.812 13.022 05.612 83.612 65.212 67.302 76.891 85.091 01.881 33.881 79.581 54.571 82.1029991 30.471 91.861 57.761 62.861 09.761 97.761 17.261 65.071 04.471 55.671 75.671 47.671 59.0710002 19.971 62.481 57.581 19.481 97.291 85.691 85.391 09.491 43.002 96.102 02.102 43.302 72.3911002 63.302 10.102 29.591 58.291 22.391 33.781 70.481 74.081 50.571 65.661 08.761 67.861 07.4812002 86.861 75.761 52.671 03.571 06.571 09.671 76.281 48.481 30.391 36.391 03.491 63.991 43.2813002 90.602 20.212 89.402 88.002 89.502 79.302 02.302 68.602 00.902 91.312 60.712 60.422 49.8024002 35.232 36.232 99.342 10.342 56.932 15.832 89.732 43.932 80.242 95.942 77.942 85.842 74.142

.egarevA :ecruoS sretueR

xednI-buSkcotseviLBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 43.581 73.281 42.281 95.371 34.371 30.481 68.581 55.591 57.802 96.312 00.902 50.512 14.2916991 75.102 14.702 89.612 04.032 13.842 28.142 28.852 13.462 11.062 49.352 55.652 00.062 96.1427991 80.662 28.462 35.262 45.972 22.282 51.862 85.172 24.562 62.752 29.542 34.442 93.242 35.2628991 06.932 30.432 27.622 92.532 67.532 99.922 24.702 03.791 39.981 58.991 25.681 88.081 16.3129991 74.602 74.022 57.812 79.222 41.622 41.912 81.891 98.602 13.902 86.122 79.722 31.932 90.8120002 63.742 08.942 01.752 35.262 73.652 73.152 49.342 56.922 43.822 46.332 96.932 99.152 89.5421002 18.452 26.452 79.262 72.952 04.252 23.752 51.752 13.842 38.042 28.032 68.722 62.732 46.8422002 34.942 64.152 95.342 61.612 62.902 95.991 07.602 89.691 67.791 79.712 37.432 08.742 26.2223002 07.252 23.242 60.042 72.732 70.152 68.842 33.542 36.442 92.162 33.462 69.462 70.552 66.0524002 09.842 35.052 35.662 51.472 06.192 19.492 92.292 44.582 27.782 92.782 62.692 06.792 01.182


xednI-buSsdeesliOdnasniarGBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 28.481 02.381 40.981 16.591 63.102 89.012 52.522 97.222 69.732 60.942 83.652 73.662 75.8126991 75.762 04.172 35.172 59.103 19.703 70.282 36.872 70.362 50.352 46.232 70.912 93.412 16.3627991 89.512 78.122 70.732 96.832 81.032 20.512 20.502 91.212 85.612 36.422 60.622 86.812 38.1228991 25.412 97.412 52.312 65.991 80.691 38.091 85.281 65.661 87.961 74.971 74.481 98.771 28.0919991 67.471 29.561 45.071 96.661 22.361 11.361 54.251 33.661 88.071 69.161 27.851 53.551 61.4610002 84.761 56.071 49.471 44.471 69.081 21.961 26.251 23.051 19.061 06.261 60.761 73.171 78.6611002 54.171 32.361 33.461 14.851 39.551 17.651 24.071 47.861 59.761 73.161 22.361 41.261 66.3612002 90.461 83.061 79.361 35.061 79.261 11.171 01.881 43.991 56.312 33.402 59.002 93.391 09.1813002 75.781 92.981 21.381 89.581 26.491 53.391 48.181 28.291 86.102 82.902 72.222 64.622 63.7914002 86.732 38.342 97.162 59.762 42.742 52.432 04.302 82.881 39.681 96.671 14.671 42.571 46.612


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CRB INDEXES

xednI-buSstfoSBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 93.504 82.993 59.993 58.483 22.463 55.153 50.923 92.543 25.523 25.123 06.223 31.403 54.4536991 34.703 39.523 14.913 96.723 29.133 85.033 33.223 97.823 75.023 11.613 63.713 48.713 61.2237991 46.723 45.053 25.273 87.283 67.314 30.104 56.493 95.893 81.993 89.983 91.104 71.914 95.7838991 34.514 89.314 53.404 22.783 70.393 46.563 96.763 15.273 63.843 68.153 19.563 21.353 62.8739991 19.733 15.703 49.582 53.762 47.462 18.182 12.362 74.272 35.772 15.672 92.582 15.482 37.3820002 25.862 77.452 93.952 62.062 19.762 62.082 02.582 27.372 34.072 50.072 49.752 86.552 10.7621002 11.962 95.472 72.562 27.452 26.862 86.552 10.152 10.442 54.832 19.132 63.452 36.452 02.5522002 32.652 17.642 37.952 37.652 36.452 45.252 51.072 52.872 51.703 48.113 35.113 37.113 44.6723002 55.023 00.623 32.203 50.203 14.392 59.272 21.572 77.372 48.172 75.752 87.852 99.362 68.4824002 39.562 92.952 89.562 93.952 19.652 59.662 18.582 16.982 07.403 10.903 24.813 32.933 01.582


xednI-buSslateMsuoicerPBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 37.562 36.362 61.562 89.982 74.582 49.282 17.772 31.972 82.082 22.572 07.472 70.272 00.6726991 49.282 24.782 22.282 39.772 17.672 70.962 44.762 75.172 49.462 52.262 63.952 89.352 23.1727991 35.742 11.352 69.852 44.742 95.052 24.352 62.932 96.642 58.052 81.552 61.542 64.642 55.9428991 74.842 34.462 73.062 93.862 64.942 28.732 68.542 25.632 08.332 02.132 77.132 29.922 38.4429991 14.432 41.242 48.632 91.232 78.232 17.522 55.422 28.522 85.232 02.352 06.642 18.642 41.6320002 61.742 34.662 15.652 35.352 44.552 30.862 80.762 79.662 05.962 74.362 79.162 69.662 29.1621002 84.562 32.952 40.352 71.252 82.162 78.452 07.342 22.232 42.932 66.232 60.722 17.732 65.6422002 09.142 33.542 74.452 16.162 95.662 72.672 30.862 72.462 91.962 88.762 92.272 42.182 90.4623002 75.592 53.892 87.092 67.972 25.592 45.492 93.203 58.013 53.123 62.123 31.333 13.553 32.8034002 11.773 03.573 14.004 28.093 92.153 76.453 89.663 58.083 80.773 24.493 76.804 21.204 46.183


xednI-buSslairtsudnIBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 89.472 49.472 61.272 75.282 15.672 91.472 13.762 64.962 60.672 21.662 07.762 82.862 25.2726991 91.762 39.962 96.072 91.472 19.472 21.752 26.352 60.162 72.362 74.662 68.762 79.862 72.6627991 14.072 91.072 58.072 01.362 83.862 94.762 05.852 48.152 77.342 75.832 05.032 06.512 01.4528991 35.012 48.702 52.712 57.012 51.212 98.712 99.512 39.112 69.612 67.602 51.002 81.881 07.9029991 79.281 44.871 51.081 14.481 49.481 04.671 85.281 17.481 86.191 81.091 43.781 01.781 42.4810002 73.102 76.202 95.402 81.491 81.702 38.002 73.702 46.712 01.422 61.712 11.712 72.912 64.9021002 68.602 40.991 91.681 02.471 27.371 45.261 36.851 34.351 72.541 33.131 58.041 65.641 98.4612002 94.051 12.151 94.651 13.251 95.251 72.761 45.271 80.461 97.161 82.261 97.671 35.871 02.2613002 33.581 92.091 93.391 96.881 57.681 08.091 58.102 32.891 40.212 84.632 80.342 65.442 69.5024002 86.262 34.962 20.372 26.652 41.942 43.432 83.422 72.622 05.332 25.722 08.322 45.322 20.242


xednI-buSygrenEBRC-sretueR )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 12.171 07.271 38.271 59.181 07.281 24.471 32.761 45.071 45.171 29.561 58.961 51.771 71.3716991 09.271 32.271 18.081 88.881 17.481 15.281 01.091 23.791 08.112 70.222 84.512 20.022 09.4917991 40.022 34.202 17.791 59.191 62.002 25.091 37.291 79.502 08.212 30.522 07.112 12.881 82.3028991 49.271 20.471 78.761 86.571 46.761 68.061 75.951 58.051 71.661 54.361 76.351 83.331 81.2619991 85.431 14.921 65.641 08.961 20.471 13.081 88.691 80.912 08.822 66.522 67.522 49.322 09.7810002 83.132 79.542 90.452 26.442 19.872 18.803 93.103 25.823 81.663 43.653 67.663 39.163 47.3031002 00.543 00.823 72.213 69.913 32.803 56.292 02.762 50.962 71.352 86.232 07.412 29.602 51.9722002 02.591 21.202 69.342 27.262 43.962 42.852 80.062 40.472 33.103 94.103 14.872 25.113 02.3623002 33.733 46.573 99.643 87.313 81.823 15.243 17.233 85.343 89.713 59.833 18.133 25.163 52.9334002 54.173 02.553 20.673 99.483 10.624 82.914 43.834 57.954 96.574 57.475 26.535 79.574 90.144


20T

CRB INDEXES

xednIseicnerruCBRC-sretueR )001=7791(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 13.931 45.041 58.741 25.251 02.051 58.051 85.051 14.541 98.341 33.641 12.541 38.341 83.6416991 96.141 10.141 21.141 16.931 11.831 73.831 35.931 25.041 15.931 47.831 29.931 74.731 36.9317991 16.431 03.031 65.921 17.821 38.031 57.131 41.031 48.621 20.821 70.921 85.921 39.621 07.9218991 60.521 01.621 56.521 69.421 33.421 68.221 98.121 56.021 81.621 89.031 68.821 96.031 86.5219991 79.031 84.821 73.621 47.521 23.521 36.421 80.421 98.621 98.821 66.031 42.821 17.721 33.7210002 56.721 73.421 10.421 34.321 24.911 45.221 95.121 40.911 11.711 99.511 98.411 55.711 36.0211002 24.811 85.611 52.411 10.311 42.211 29.011 92.111 20.411 12.511 40.411 96.211 10.211 27.3112002 02.011 83.901 04.011 33.111 45.411 93.711 03.121 86.911 45.911 20.911 77.021 79.121 92.6113002 73.521 63.621 16.621 24.621 70.231 40.331 03.031 77.821 39.031 69.531 32.631 44.041 40.1314002 44.341 32.341 86.041 63.931 26.731 84.041 18.141 29.041 52.141 40.441 66.941 45.251 29.241


xednIsetaRtseretnIBRC-sretueR )001=7791(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 65.401 42.601 43.701 11.801 78.011 94.311 66.211 35.111 62.311 85.411 54.511 69.611 52.1116991 91.711 02.611 99.211 34.111 25.011 67.901 91.011 35.111 42.011 98.111 69.311 34.311 44.2117991 37.111 96.211 87.011 47.901 20.111 21.211 16.311 41.311 37.311 86.411 77.511 64.611 69.2118991 98.711 83.711 98.611 99.611 78.611 00.811 31.811 90.911 76.121 76.221 32.121 33.221 01.9119991 23.121 26.911 11.811 65.811 75.611 87.211 23.211 17.011 97.801 24.601 64.701 65.401 01.3110002 50.001 15.101 16.201 99.301 08.101 56.301 21.401 12.501 01.501 75.501 49.501 44.801 00.4011002 97.801 49.801 68.901 16.801 96.701 09.701 42.801 36.901 47.011 62.211 92.211 79.801 94.9012002 15.901 43.011 56.701 13.801 40.901 80.011 54.111 41.411 42.611 45.511 44.511 72.511 29.1113002 72.511 86.611 88.611 31.611 22.911 24.021 72.611 20.311 68.311 AN AN AN 24.6114002 AN AN 49.321 74.811 03.511 25.411 64.711 19.911 20.121 17.121 52.121 46.021 24.911

.serutuflliB-Tyad-09ehtfosutatsgnidart-nonehteud4002,71hcraMot3002,61rebmetpeSrofdetaluclactonxednI.egarevA :ecruoS sretueR

xednIygrenEBRC-sretueR )001=7791(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 41.461 35.561 18.461 86.371 30.571 84.661 73.851 34.161 53.261 95.651 47.061 32.861 87.4616991 79.461 44.361 01.171 45.971 36.471 27.171 55.871 86.481 24.691 20.602 80.102 83.602 12.3817991 85.602 69.091 58.681 59.971 69.681 30.771 84.971 18.381 12.181 39.981 10.481 56.271 59.4818991 85.161 27.751 96.151 49.451 59.351 45.641 49.041 97.331 98.341 22.041 13.131 41.811 65.4419991 00.121 93.611 44.631 02.251 35.351 25.751 04.671 84.581 25.691 17.291 63.202 18.702 35.6610002 35.022 90.732 92.142 24.122 27.742 76.362 04.552 79.862 51.292 63.782 07.682 68.942 10.6521002 50.152 07.652 60.642 74.852 51.462 15.842 65.132 74.832 35.132 46.102 55.081 94.081 34.2322002 10.581 68.091 86.422 52.432 31.332 65.622 07.432 72.042 40.652 57.052 87.822 20.852 52.0323002 60.972 90.703 37.282 01.342 29.342 87.652 13.462 28.572 55.842 44.562 52.172 20.482 15.8624002 73.003 53.892 05.413 27.223 33.953 12.243 25.763 14.983 75.204 45.064 46.034 59.983 48.463

.egarevA :ecruoS sretueR

xednI-buSslateMBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 36.313 10.992 40.892 41.303 46.303 42.113 52.413 71.813 54.803 62.303 47.503 35.103 86.6036991 24.992 64.992 22.103 34.103 43.803 23.003 27.192 02.492 51.392 09.982 49.092 78.982 66.6927991 36.103 26.413 03.313 28.703 27.413 16.613 70.613 82.913 59.013 85.692 10.092 67.172 11.6038991 92.862 61.462 49.762 86.272 55.072 93.562 98.162 54.552 61.342 37.232 87.422 37.812 18.3529991 47.312 92.122 66.022 05.222 10.722 05.322 14.432 60.732 56.342 77.242 91.742 77.352 03.2320002 17.162 92.842 62.042 75.732 65.142 42.932 40.232 02.622 28.822 51.522 52.612 63.512 73.4321002 74.212 09.212 95.012 49.402 41.502 06.502 40.791 90.881 23.181 05.971 69.271 08.371 63.5912002 67.471 14.671 22.181 13.681 21.981 83.981 66.291 15.481 30.481 16.581 12.381 72.681 64.4813002 17.991 71.402 27.602 87.202 75.502 77.702 42.212 90.412 42.022 02.042 94.842 07.662 60.9124002 04.782 70.603 69.023 09.123 37.413 82.803 92.213 12.813 79.333 54.053 77.953 29.163 66.423

egarevA . :ecruoS uaeruBhcraeseRytidommoC

21T

CRB INDEXES

xednI-buSselitxeTBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 84.082 73.282 91.192 50.692 21.992 66.203 63.292 67.972 31.772 32.572 34.972 19.572 79.5826991 94.672 07.272 04.372 14.572 78.672 04.772 61.572 46.972 22.772 50.372 68.962 04.862 36.4727991 25.962 52.172 52.472 94.172 61.072 98.072 79.172 12.372 60.272 46.072 32.962 43.262 85.0728991 54.752 80.352 01.952 14.452 78.942 75.052 00.942 53.642 83.442 93.342 64.242 13.042 02.9429991 04.732 76.332 90.532 49.432 54.432 42.922 20.522 34.622 12.222 15.322 37.722 36.222 63.9220002 65.622 96.722 78.432 52.432 07.242 67.342 82.142 37.342 33.442 09.442 71.842 75.842 70.0421002 47.442 48.142 04.332 79.522 74.422 21.222 44.222 55.812 47.412 97.702 68.512 99.812 42.4222002 80.812 48.612 04.812 27.412 12.112 61.022 59.222 47.122 20.912 01.022 58.522 67.722 47.9123002 52.132 13.532 40.532 46.432 66.132 42.532 88.042 05.732 03.442 99.652 95.752 52.452 22.1424002 85.752 51.352 73.252 79.742 47.942 56.242 84.332 85.332 13.732 30.532 88.532 93.632 39.242


xednI-buSslairtsudnIwaRBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 59.743 84.043 06.443 31.053 90.253 71.453 95.543 14.933 33.433 03.233 42.933 95.333 28.2436991 26.033 09.723 53.033 15.333 29.043 31.633 24.433 72.343 37.343 17.433 43.033 20.333 19.4337991 93.933 45.443 99.043 36.333 48.633 03.733 98.433 74.043 33.733 74.433 46.723 65.013 48.4338991 16.992 58.692 98.203 52.103 04.503 27.992 65.592 71.092 89.082 37.572 88.862 49.562 52.0929991 18.262 56.952 30.552 57.152 70.052 19.842 34.352 69.552 65.262 73.662 93.072 03.762 96.8520002 58.762 19.062 93.062 32.852 73.562 87.162 91.552 96.552 18.852 92.752 85.252 00.652 71.9521002 45.452 35.842 53.642 30.442 92.442 29.542 22.442 01.832 03.822 25.022 49.812 75.122 49.7322002 50.912 33.222 30.132 83.032 18.132 27.342 83.542 35.042 77.042 86.042 40.342 12.842 14.6323002 58.552 95.852 79.062 97.852 56.752 74.062 77.362 99.362 42.372 81.192 88.592 03.203 22.0724002 42.213 45.903 77.613 25.813 89.213 04.803 48.803 45.703 52.513 31.513 25.023 56.223 30.413


xednI-buSsffutsdooFBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 64.912 74.122 92.812 31.412 59.512 13.622 72.532 16.432 82.732 24.342 32.442 93.832 70.9226991 82.332 75.232 62.332 96.642 85.562 45.472 66.672 35.672 27.562 05.152 08.922 20.032 53.1527991 11.532 08.732 54.442 19.042 54.832 30.142 57.732 29.932 66.932 06.742 80.152 79.832 60.1428991 10.722 60.422 86.722 26.922 51.932 45.832 77.922 65.322 24.122 20.422 78.902 01.391 89.3229991 57.602 35.691 18.981 49.781 06.191 69.591 90.281 06.191 21.291 31.091 64.381 42.871 25.0910002 73.081 86.571 67.381 88.981 23.491 24.091 25.671 36.171 20.571 35.381 57.681 85.681 78.2811002 86.981 39.291 84.002 75.302 42.012 90.312 16.222 24.232 60.422 15.991 42.002 04.302 96.7022002 33.302 93.202 40.402 88.791 58.591 11.702 52.812 23.222 89.622 36.032 67.032 99.732 97.4123002 06.832 10.732 61.432 55.432 51.932 35.932 18.232 03.432 96.442 40.152 63.552 99.752 06.1424002 09.362 58.572 94.782 14.782 33.582 50.872 38.372 24.072 01.272 67.752 74.862 77.162 35.372


xednI-buSsliOdnastaFBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 76.922 25.222 54.712 03.012 12.902 84.022 24.132 94.632 96.632 20.542 62.152 50.922 03.8226991 98.812 00.402 96.402 61.712 31.142 29.862 56.282 62.692 59.103 51.462 24.612 01.232 96.5427991 33.152 68.852 49.152 27.722 13.232 78.842 23.842 27.942 01.252 11.382 59.882 29.962 62.5528991 72.342 32.432 36.342 16.242 48.862 01.172 86.562 18.272 60.082 73.772 39.942 77.132 87.6529991 99.032 69.491 95.271 79.471 87.671 48.781 16.871 91.191 86.902 35.902 83.491 89.771 36.1910002 51.171 77.451 79.161 73.561 47.771 75.171 62.251 11.351 25.751 14.061 44.561 53.761 22.3611002 94.071 72.851 77.561 36.771 59.771 20.691 98.232 06.952 33.732 50.771 66.471 87.481 07.2912002 46.961 19.561 43.771 16.761 83.461 83.391 92.391 58.291 02.391 09.391 79.112 50.032 97.7813002 93.222 98.902 27.512 19.612 65.912 10.922 38.522 63.322 04.152 74.582 80.882 22.292 99.9324002 03.503 74.003 35.813 45.033 13.203 23.592 06.403 25.092 15.203 21.762 24.972 63.172 33.792


22T

CRB INDEXES

xednI-buSkcotseviLBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 48.523 61.813 80.013 91.203 83.003 85.113 70.813 65.323 15.223 21.713 85.313 62.213 16.4136991 14.203 36.692 12.103 03.013 03.433 24.833 42.853 09.973 88.683 63.063 29.833 39.253 83.8337991 73.163 98.653 17.343 90.333 76.833 44.833 90.343 09.243 44.833 78.443 78.043 30.323 11.2438991 77.682 37.562 31.972 30.082 90.903 08.103 18.182 06.182 74.852 65.652 92.232 99.712 49.0729991 17.942 72.132 95.612 29.132 17.632 70.142 29.532 46.452 06.472 61.492 79.972 41.272 65.1520002 38.162 76.542 56.252 44.852 14.862 35.062 27.142 26.832 53.542 87.252 54.042 56.952 81.2521002 75.762 41.052 50.162 41.372 88.882 48.603 37.923 87.143 48.313 77.062 79.252 32.462 52.4822002 16.152 23.062 59.472 23.752 33.652 04.982 22.882 30.972 31.472 49.672 68.882 41.313 58.5723002 76.613 56.803 94.013 52.113 30.023 92.333 85.423 36.723 03.163 06.683 36.583 84.273 22.8334002 61.273 91.353 14.263 56.963 13.963 82.473 84.593 33.293 04.593 86.563 96.373 36.073 25.473


xednItopSBRC )001=7691(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 52.882 36.582 79.582 14.682 63.882 59.492 73.592 19.192 66.092 76.292 66.692 48.092 46.0926991 67.682 00.582 06.682 98.492 09.703 05.903 55.903 03.413 74.903 68.792 48.482 33.682 57.7927991 61.292 41.692 86.792 11.292 45.292 70.492 81.192 41.592 14.392 28.592 61.492 60.972 97.2928991 45.762 66.462 95.962 76.962 24.672 70.372 17.662 98.062 69.452 43.352 99.242 63.332 01.1629991 13.832 67.132 70.622 16.322 55.422 38.522 44.122 53.722 01.132 21.232 87.032 45.622 92.8220002 19.722 00.222 58.522 87.722 86.332 98.922 45.912 82.712 06.022 51.422 92.322 99.422 57.4221002 57.522 31.422 15.622 66.622 18.922 89.132 02.532 38.532 26.622 27.112 51.112 10.412 59.4222002 55.212 20.412 56.912 45.612 34.612 90.822 69.332 89.232 01.532 95.632 10.832 60.442 33.7223002 27.842 06.942 37.942 66.842 00.052 77.152 17.052 94.152 52.162 11.472 66.872 83.382 71.8524002 55.192 83.592 45.403 94.503 44.103 07.592 01.492 68.192 09.692 53.092 91.892 62.692 18.692


)ICSG(xednIytidommoCshcaSnamdloG )001=9691/13/21(raeY .naJ .beF .raM .rpA yaM enuJ yluJ .guA .tpeS .tcO .voN .ceD egarevA5991 38.671 28.671 88.671 46.281 26.281 94.871 09.371 02.771 60.281 17.081 60.681 60.791 49.0816991 16.491 80.591 58.002 77.212 04.902 50.202 18.202 21.991 46.202 36.902 18.012 07.022 40.5027991 26.412 88.491 88.291 42.191 06.891 05.681 53.581 52.491 02.791 57.502 53.991 49.181 12.5918991 49.071 89.861 82.461 98.561 84.161 05.451 22.941 21.141 04.841 75.941 46.441 27.131 32.4519991 92.531 73.231 68.341 04.551 18.651 22.851 12.561 06.771 46.781 98.481 48.191 26.491 13.5610002 41.002 51.112 91.412 24.002 11.912 70.032 31.222 88.032 37.742 76.342 28.152 97.442 43.6221002 81.932 45.132 31.022 68.222 23.222 62.312 98.202 67.302 40.791 70.871 36.961 47.761 07.5022002 79.861 57.271 85.391 78.991 56.002 70.791 21.302 67.802 96.322 07.222 81.212 30.032 87.2023002 47.142 91.462 07.642 86.122 81.822 10.532 81.332 53.142 45.822 22.242 42.642 32.162 68.0424002 81.962 32.662 01.082 60.482 91.303 36.292 79.892 10.803 92.513 07.653 21.143 52.413 84.203

egarevA . :ecruoS shcaSnamdloG

CRB InfoTech CD

Commodity Research Bureau • 330 South Wells Street, Suite 612 • Chicago IL, 60606 USA Phone: 312.554.8456 or 800.621.5271 • Fax: 312.939.4135 • [email protected] • www.crbtrader.com

HHiissttoorriiccaall PPrriiccee DDaattaa oonn CCDD

Instant Access to Decades of Historical Price Data CRB InfoTech CD provides the widest variety of financial and commodity data available in one electronic source. Nowhere else can you access data on over 600 cash futures, indices and FOREX markets along with options volatility. It’s the only source available for many underlying cash markets offering prices extending back to the 50s, 40s, and even earlier. Compiled from major worldwide exchanges, trade associations and government agencies.

InfoTech helps you Perform Analysis, Back-Testing, Modeling, Presentations

InfoTech includes DataXtract, which enables you to download entire trading histories from your CD-ROM in a variety of formats for your own independent analysis. You can create nearby contracts, continuation contracts and synthetic contracts, along with years of cash prices and volatility studies.

Includes PowerSignals Lite - Advanced Technical Charting Features include 10 chart styles, 7 Line tools, more than 30 built-in studies and Design Studio. One of the most powerful features built into PowerSignals is the Technical Study Design Studio. With it, you can create studies that manipulate your price data in almost any way you want. You can take the results of your studies and display them as lines on an existing chart, on a brand new chart with its own scales, or as tabular displays of the raw data. All of the Technical Studies that are included in the PowerSignals software have been created in the Design Studio, exposing properties such as line colors, numbers of periods in calculations and even the underlying formulas to you. If you would prefer some study to be calculated differently than the built-in formula, you can modify the study as desired and save it for future use. If you want to make a brand new study, you can use the existing studies as models for your study.

Update Your Database with Final Markets InfoTech can be updated with a subscription to Final Markets, our end-of-day data from the CRB DataCenter. You’ll receive futures/cash and option volatility data from over 50 major worldwide exchanges.

For more information, visit www.crbtrader.com, or call 800-621-5271

CRB Futures Perspective


Each 104-page issue of Futures Perspective is packed with uncluttered, easy-to-read charts. You'll find all the market information you need for a thorough technical analysis of the markets, including daily and weekly bar charts displaying open, high, low and settlement prices. Our special quarterly Long Range Charts section of monthly price charts is included each January, April, July and October. With Futures Perspective's exclusive format, you won't need to flip back and forth between pages, because an entire market is charted on facing pages. Easy-to-update gridlines, multiple contracts, and studies assist you in your analysis. But there's more to Futures Perspective than our popular charts. You'll also find:

Our information is tailored to your trading needs. CRB Futures Perspective is available in three different editions and frequencies - so you receive only the information you want and need. Choose from Full, Financial or Agricultural edition; select weekly, biweekly or monthly frequencies. Whichever edition or frequency you prefer, your issues are printed each Friday after the markets close and mailed to you immediately the same night.


• Complete Technical Studies Including: o Relative Strength Index (9-day) o Stochastic (9-day) o Bullish Consensus o Commitments of Traders data o Historical Open Interest (6-year)

• Market Movers Calendar • Trading Systems Overview • Stock Market Momentum Indicator • CRB’s own Electronic Futures Trend

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CRB Wall Charts and Desk Sets


Designed to help you easily spot market reversals and critical turning points, CRB Historical Wall Charts and Desk Sets will show you in one quick look how seasonal patterns and long-term trends create profitable trading opportunities. Our charts let you plot trendlines according to actual market performance, rather than charting on market averages. Each chart offers plenty of room for updating and adding trendlines.

HHiissttoorriiccaall Wall Charts Printed each fall, Wall Charts are available for the top 35 markets. More than just a poster measuring 22½”h x 34”w, these ten-year charts use the nearest futures contract and show open/high/low/settle prices with total volume and total open interest and Commitment of Traders data for each week through the last week of September.

Agricultural Markets: Corn, Oats, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Wheat, Kansas City Wheat, Cotton #2, Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar #11, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs and Pork Bellies. Financial Markets: U.S. Dollar Index, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Euro FX, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Eurodollars, 5-Year T-Notes, 10-Year T-Notes 30-Year T-Bonds, Copper, Gold Silver, Crude Oil, Heating Oil #2, Unleaded Gasoline Natural Gas, S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ 100 Index and Dow Jones Industrials

HHiissttoorriiccaall Desk Sets Printed each spring and fall, the Desk Set includes 48 markets*. By allowing you to take the longest possible view of these markets, our Desk Set helps you identify potential trends and plan your strategy accordingly. Measuring 12½”h x 17”w, this spiral-bound set includes 10 years of weekly trading ranges with total volume and open interest and Commitment of Traders data and 30 years of monthly price activity with total volume and open interest on adjacent pages.

*Additional Markets: Lumber, Orange Juice, Australian Dollar, Mexican Peso, 2-Year T-Notes, Palladium, Platinum, SPI 200 Index, DAX Index, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225 Index, FTSE 100 Index and Reuters-CRB Futures Index.


26T

MAJOR COMMODITY BULL MARKET CONTINUES IN 2004

The Reuters-CRB index in 2004 rallied sharply by+11.2% to a new 24-year high and extended the rally seenin the previous two years. In the overall bull market thatbegan in October 2001, the Reuters-CRB index rallied bya total of +60.0% through the end of 2004. That kept therally in its position as the third largest in post-war history.

The two larger rallies both occurred in the 1970s. The1971-74 rally was the largest and totaled 146.7%. The1977-80 rally was the second largest and totaled 82.8%.The current rally has a long way to go before challengingthose rallies. However, the duration of the 2001-04 rallyis now 39 months and has been longer than the 1971-74rally and has matched the 1977-80 rally.

The Reuters-CRB index ended 2004 at levels not seensince 1981 when Ronald Reagan was President and PaulVolcker was in his second year as Fed Chairman (Volcker’sterm was 1979-87). Commodity prices during the 1970ssurged mainly because of a serious inflation outbreakdriven by an expansive fiscal policy, the surge in oil prices,and an overly easy Fed monetary policy. The CPI finallypeaked at +14.8% in March 1980 when Mr. Volcker’smonetary crackdown started to succeed in slowinginflation. The Fed’s crack-down on inflation caused thedouble-dip recessions of 1979-80 and 1981-82, and alsocaused commodity prices to fall sharply in the first halfof the 1980s.

In the current commodity bull market, by contrast,

the US CPI index has been relatively well-behaved andended 2004 at only +3.0%. During the entire 2001-04commodity bull market, the CPI has averaged a modest+2.2%, which is well below the average of +4.9% seenduring the 1971-74 rally and the +10.2% average seenduring the 1977-80 rally. The nearby chart shows howthe Reuters-CRB index has shown much stronger growththan the CRB index since 1992 and particularly duringthe 2001-04 commodity bull market.

The modest behavior of inflation during the currentcommodity bull market suggests that other factors aredriving commodity prices higher. In fact, the main driverhas been the weak dollar. The dollar plunged by 33%over the time-frame of the 2001-04 commodity bullmarket. Commodities, as real assets, typically rise inprice when the currency in which they are quoteddepreciates in value.

The strong relationship between the Reuters-CRBindex and the US Dollar Index can be seen in the nearbychart. This chart shows how the Reuters-CRB index hasrisen sharply over the same time frame that the dollarhas plunged. In fact, the weekly correlation of the Reuters-CRB index and the dollar index over the course of the2001-04 commodity bull market has shown a remarkablystrong negative correlation of –0.95. That shows howclosely tied commodity prices and the dollar are in movingin opposite directions.

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27T

Precious metals prices provide a good illustration ofhow the dollar has driven commodity prices higher. Thatis because a key component of precious metals prices istheir “store of value.” When the currency in which theprecious metal is quoted depreciates, there is a quickmarket effect in raising the price of that precious metal.Over the 2001-04 bull market, gold prices rallied by 79%and showed a very strong negative weekly correlation of–0.96 with the dollar index.

There has, however, been more behind the 3-yearcommodity bull market than just the dollar. The worldeconomy has shown increasing strength in the past 3years, and that has led to higher demand across the boardfor commodities. China in particular has been a majorcause of commodity strength in recent years. In 2004,the Chinese economy showed a very strong GDP growthof +9.5%. China has been a key buyer for crude oil andalso for industrial metals and construction supplies.Copper provides an excellent example of Chinese demand,and copper prices soared again in 2004 to a new 16-yearhigh.

The crude oil market was the component of theReuters-CRB index that showed the strongest growthduring 2004. The crude oil market rallied on increasedChinese demand, stronger worldwide demand for oil dueto the stronger global economy (+5.1% world GDP in 2004),various supply disruptions from non-OPEC producers, andlimited OPEC supply as OPEC bumped up against itscapacity limits.

The outlook continues to look strong for commodityprices going forward . The world economy is expected toremain strong near +4.3% in 2005, according to the IMF,thus keeping demand alive for commodities. In addition,there is little reason to believe that the dollar’s declinewill end in the near future given the massive US current

account deficit. As long as the dollar moves lower,commodity prices will move higher. The main threat tohigher commodity prices comes from China as Chineseauthorities try to slow their economy to a more sustainablelong-term growth rate. If they fail and cause a hard-landing, that will cause a sharp drop in commodity prices.However, such a decline would probably be only temporaryand worldwide demand for commodities would likelyreemerge before long, thus keeping commodity pricesunderpinned.

Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist

28T

CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE NEARLY TRIPLED IN LAST 3 YEARS

Crude oil prices have rallied very sharply in the pastthree years, recently reaching a new record high of over$55 per barrel. The rally has been instrumental inpushing up the overall Reuters-CRB index. In addition,the rally has important implications for the US and globaleconomies and global stock markets. Higher oil pricesare particularly damaging for stock prices because highoil prices have a double-whammy for profits, hurtingrevenues through a slower economy and also raising inputcosts.

The marketplace has been remarkably sanguineabout the run-up in crude oil prices thus far. Economistshave not significantly revised downward their estimatesfor US GDP growth because of the oil price rally, and theS&P 500 index has been able to rally to a new 3-1/2 yearhigh. One reason for this is that the US economy is onlyhalf as dependent on oil as it was when OPEC shockedthe world with its oil embargo back in 1973.

The Treasury note market has generally shown abullish reaction to the rally in oil prices. While the rallyin oil prices temporarily pushes up the overall inflationstatistics, the more important effect is that the rally inoil prices hurts the US economy and thus cools GDPgrowth and core inflation.

Monetarist theory states that if the Federal Reserveholds its monetary policy steady, a rise in the price of onecommodity like oil will be offset by a decline in the pricesof other consumer products, thus leaving the overall pricelevel unchanged. Otherwise stated, a sharp rise in crudeoil prices will be deflationary for the prices of other goods,assuming the Federal Reserve leaves monetary policyunchanged. If on the other hand the Federal Reservepanics and tries to offset the rise in crude oil prices withan easier monetary policy, as it did during the 1970s, thena rally in crude oil prices can kick off a generalized rise ininflation. In the current instance, the Federal Reserve isslowly tightening monetary policy and is notaccommodating the rise in oil prices. Bond marketparticipants are therefore not concerned that the rise inoil prices will cause a generalized inflation outbreak.

Demand is clearly the reason for the rally in oil pricesin the past three years, and particularly new demand fromChina. The nearby chart shows how Chinese demand forimported oil has doubled since mid-2002. Notcoincidently, the rally in oil prices that began in 2002coincided with the sharp rise in Chinese buying of crudeoil imports. In addition, world demand for oil hasincreased, even aside from Chinese demand, as worldeconomic growth recovered from the 2001 recession. The

the crb commodity yearbook 2005 · 2013-07-24 · the crb commodity yearbook 2005 commodity...

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