the crime funnel -...
TRANSCRIPT
Elise Hansell ’15Charlotte Bailey ’16
Nina Kamath ’16Lane corrigan ’17
Joseph M. Bessette, Ph.D., Project Supervisor
850 Columbia Avenue Kravis Center 436
Claremont, CA 91711-6420P: (909) 621-8159
The Crime Funnel
April 2016
The Crime Funnel
Table of Contents
Introduction ...................................................................................................Methodology .................................................................................................. FBI Crime Definitions ................................................................................... Key Findings ...................................................................................................Murder Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 .........................................Murder Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .............................................Murder Ratios, 1986-2006 .............................................................................Rape Funnels Based on Incidents, 1998-2006 .............................................Rape Funnels Based on Arrests, 1998-2006 .................................................Rape Ratios, 1998-2006 .................................................................................Robbery Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ........................................Robbery Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 ...........................................Robbery Ratios, 1986-2006 ...........................................................................Robbery Gender Comparison, 2006 .............................................................Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ...................... Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .........................Aggravated Assault Ratios, 1986-2006 .........................................................Aggravated Assault Gender Comparison, 2006 ...........................................Burglary Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ........................................Burglary Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 ...........................................Burglary Ratios, 1986-2006 ...........................................................................Burglary Gender Comparison, 2006 .............................................................Total Funnels based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ..............................................Total Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .................................................Total Incident Ratios,1986-2006 ...................................................................Drug Abuse Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .....................................Drug Trafficking Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .............................Appendix ........................................................................................................
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1The Crime Funnel
IntroductionThe Rose Institute of State and Local Government presents its first comprehensive analysis of crime and criminal justice in the United States in our first report on the Crime Funnel Project.
A crime funnel is a succinct way to display the likelihood that the commission of a crime will result in an arrest, a felony conviction, incarceration (in a local jail or state prison), and imprisonment. While every serious crime should ideally result in the conviction of the offender and the imposition of an appropriate sentence, there is a drop-off at each stage of the process because not all crimes result in an arrest, not all arrests lead to a felony conviction, and not all convictions result in an appropriate sentence. Together, these drop-offs can be displayed as a graph in the shape of a funnel.
After compiling data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Judicial Reporting Program (NJRP), our team constructed over 80 funnels to display and analyze the changes in the criminal justice system over the last two decades.
The first portion of the project looks at the five most serious index crimes outlined in the FBI’s UCR program. These five crimes are murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary. The team compiled data for these five crimes from 1986 through 2006 on a quadrennial basis to assess the changes over time. (2006 is the most recent year with national sentencing data.) To gain a better understanding of these changes, we created two sets of funnels for each year. The first set begins with incidents and the second begins with arrests. The advantage of beginning with arrests is that these funnels more directly show how the criminal justice system responds once an alleged offender is in custody. We have also included the 2006 male and female comparison funnels for robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary. In addition to the funnels, our team calculated four different ratios for each index crime. Please see “Methodology” for details.
Although the crimes studied in this report are all felonies – which typically means they can result in incarceration for at least a year – in some cases, offenders arrested for these crimes may be convicted of a lesser misdemeanor and receive a shorter jail sentence or probation. For example, someone arrested for aggravated assault, typically a felony because it involves serious bodily injury or the use of a deadly weapon, may plead guilty to the lesser crime of simple assault, typically a misdemeanor because the bodily harm was not serious and a deadly weapon was not used. Because we have no national data on misdemeanor convictions, all conviction data in this report are for felony convictions only.
Lastly, our team looked at the arrest and processing for those accused of drug crimes over the period from 1986 through 2006. These funnels will become of particular interest in future reports as we examine differences among the states in sentencing policies.
It is our hope that these crime funnels will offer readers and researchers a unique perspective on the criminal justice system and its evolution over the last two decades. The team would like to thank Professor Joseph Bessette of CMC’s Department of Government for his leadership and guidance on this project. His extensive knowledge of the criminal justice system proved an invaluable resource throughout the entire process. For this, we thank him.
Charlotte BaileyElise HansellLane CorriganNina Kamath
2The Crime Funnel
The creation of each crime funnel requires four different data points: the number of incidents, the number of arrests, the number of convictions, and the number of incarcerations. The number of incidents is the number of crimes of specific types reported to local law enforcement. Conviction data refer to the number of felony convictions and do not include convictions on non-felony charges. Because incarceration includes local jail (usually a sentence up to a year) and state prison (usually a sentence of at least a year), we also show sentences to prison separately. Any incarceration resulting from a conviction on misdemeanor charges is not reflected in the data. The data come from two main sources: incident and arrest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and conviction and sentencing data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Both are agencies of the U.S. Department of Justice. (The Appendix provides detailed source information for the data presented in each graph.)
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR) publishes Crime in the United States, an annual report compiling the volume and rate of violent and property crimes and arrests nationwide. The UCR program relies on 16,000 city, county, and state law enforcement agencies to voluntarily report criminal incidents and arrests. The data cover 95% of the United States population, including 97% of those living in metropolitan areas and 87% in rural areas.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Judicial Reporting Program (NJRP) publishes the biannual Felony Sentences in State Courts report, providing conviction and sentencing data for each of the five crimes. The NJRP data sets are compiled using a complex stratified cluster sampling design, collecting data from 300 of the over 3000 counties in the United States. The method gives greater weight to the 75 largest counties because they account for a larger proportion of serious crime in the nation. BJS researchers utilized state courts, prosecutor’s offices,
Methodology sentencing commissions, and statistical agencies to collect the data. BJS has published reports on felony sentencing in state courts every two years between 1986 and 2006. (BJS discontinued this program in 2006, which is why 2006 is the most recent year for these funnels.)
In addition to using these data to create the funnels, our team prepared four different ratios for each crime. The first ratio compares arrests to incidents, demonstrating the likelihood that the commission of a crime results in an arrest. (For convenience, we present these as the number of arrests per 100 incidents. We use this method for all the ratios.) The second ratio compares felony convictions to arrests, illustrating the likelihood that an arrest resulted in a felony conviction for that particular crime. The third ratio compares incarceration to arrests, illustrating the likelihood that an arrest results in incarceration. The fourth ratio compares prison sentences to arrests, demonstrating the likelihood that an arrest results in state prison time for an offender. It is important to note that the ratios present aggregate data and cannot account for the fact that (a) a single offender might commit several crimes resulting in a single arrest and (perhaps after a plea bargain) a single prison sentence and (b) multiple offenders might together commit a single crime but each be arrested, convicted, and sentenced to prison. (Readers interested in more precise measures of how many crimes are “cleared” by an arrest should consult the FBI’s annual Crime in the United States.1) Despite these qualifications, the funnels and ratios provide a broad quantitative look at the system’s effectiveness in dealing with each crime. This allows for comparisons across crime types and well as changes over time.
1 The FBI considers a crime “cleared” if, (1) an offender is arrested, charged with the crime, and turned over to the court for prosecution, or (2) the case is closed for some other reason, such as the death of the offender prior to arrest.
3FBI Crime Definitions
Crime Definition
Criminal Homicide
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter (covered in this report): the willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another. Deaths caused by negligence, attempts to kill, assaults to kill, suicides, and accidental deaths are excluded. The program classifies justifiable homicides separately and limits the definition to: (1) the killing of a felon by a law enforcement officer in the line of duty; or (2) the killing of a felon, during the commission of a felony, by a private citizen. Manslaughter by negligence (not covered in this report): the killing of another person through gross negligence. Deaths of persons due to their own negligence, acci-dental deaths not resulting from gross negligence, and traffic fatalities are not included in the category Manslaughter by Negligence.
Rape Penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or ob-ject, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim. Rapes by force and attempts or assaults to rape, regardless of the age of the victim, are included. Statutory offenses (no force used―victim under age of consent) are excluded.
Robbery The taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons by force or threat of force or violence and/or by putting the victim in fear.
Aggravated Assault
An unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. Simple assaults are excluded.
Burglary (break-ing or entering)
The unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or a theft. Attempted forcible entry is included.
Definition of Rape prior to January 1, 2013
The carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. Rapes by force and at-tempts or assaults to rape, regardless of the age of the victim, are included. Statutory offenses (no force used―victim under age of consent) are excluded.
ClassificationThe FBI’s UCR program requires contributing agencies to classify crime according to the definitions below. The definitions are all categorized as Part I offenses (also called Index crimes) and are ranked below in order of their seriousness. In instances in which criminals have
committed multiple crimes in the same incident, the FBI employs the Hierarchy Rule, requiring agencies to count only the highest offense for its reporting statistics. For example, if an offender both robbed and murdered the victim, the UCR program data would only count the murder because it is the more serious crime.
4Key Findings
• As the funnels demonstrate, there is great variation among the five Index crimes -- murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary – in how many incidents lead to an arrest, how many arrests lead to a conviction, and how many convictions result in a sentence to incarceration (local jail or state prison).
• For murder, most incidents result in an arrest, most arrests in a conviction, and most convictions in imprisonment. Murder incidents dropped 17% between 1986 and 2006, and 27% between 1990 and 2006.
• Even though arrests per murder dropped during the 20-year period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences per arrest all increased, indicating a toughening of the system once an alleged offender was in custody.
• Although the number of rapes reported to the police was fairly constant between 1998 and 2006, prison sentences in 2006 were 30% higher than in 1998 and 43% higher than in 2002.
• Although there is a large drop-off from incidents of robbery to arrests and from arrests to convictions, a large majority of those convicted of robbery received a sentence to state prison.
• Compared to murder, rape, and robbery, the crime of aggravated assault shows a much more dramatic drop-off from incidents and arrests to punishment. Nonetheless, with only 3% more incidents in 2006 than in 1986, convictions almost tripled over the period and prison sentences more than doubled. Even so, only about 1 in 10 of those arrested for aggravated assault in 2006 received a prison sentence.
• Burglary shows a very similar pattern to aggravated assault: a very large drop-off from incidents to arrests and from arrests to incarceration, but also a measurable toughening of the system over time, with those arrested for burglary more likely to be convicted and incarcerated at the end of the 20-year period.
• The male-female comparisons (for robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary) all show that women commit many fewer crimes than men do and once arrested are less likely than men to be convicted or incarcerated.
• Between 1986 and 2006, the total number of murders, rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, and burglaries was down 24%; yet during this same period convictions for these crimes were up 30%, incarcerations up 27%, and sentences to state prison up 15%. This is powerful evidence of a toughening of the criminal justice system for these five very serious crimes.
• In the twelve years between 1994 and 2006, arrests for drug abuse violations (which include possession, trafficking, sale, manufacture, etc.) increased 42%, with convictions increasing 38%, incarceration sentences 45%, and prison sentences 75%.
• Over the 20-year period, arrests for drug trafficking (which includes sale and manufacture) increased 78%. During the same period, convictions increased 178%, incarceration sentences 193%, and sentences to prison 212%. These figures are much higher than those for any of the other crimes studied here.
5
Over the 20-year span, we observe a consistency in the thickness of these funnels, indicating that most incidents result in arrest, most arrests in convictions, and most convictions in imprisonment. Between 1986 and 2006, incidents decreased 17%, with a drop of 27% between 1990 and 2006.
Figure 1, Murder Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
23,438
19,771
10,895
10,350
9,914
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1990
16,974
15,390
9,158
8,792
8,609
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1998
17,034
12,160
8,670
8,240
8,080
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 2006
20,613
17,463
9,854
9,361
9,066
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1986
23,326
18,430
12,007
11,647
11,407
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1994
16,229
12,840
8,990
8,541
8,181
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 2002
6
Despite the omission of the incident data, the funnel thickness remains relatively consistent over the 20-year period. A substantial majority of arrests result in convictions and nearly all convictions result in a prison sentence. The relatively few convictions that result in no incarceration may have been to “nonnegligent manslaughter” (such as a “heat of passion” killing), which is included in the definition of murder in these data.
Figure 2, Murder Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006
19,771
10,895
10,350
9,914
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1990
15,390
9,158
8,792
8,609
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1998
12,160
8,670
8,240
8,080
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
18,430
12,007
11,647
11,407
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1994
12,840
8,990
8,541
8,181
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 2002
17,463
9,854
9,361
9,066
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Murder Funnel - 1986
7
Comparing these ratios to those for other crimes shows that the more serious the crime, the more likely the offender is to be arrested and punished. Notably, even though arrests per murder incident decrease over the time period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences per arrest all increase, indicating a toughening of the system once an alleged offender is in custody.
Figure 3, Murder Ratios, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
85 84 7991
7971
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Murder: Arrests per 100 Incidents
56 5565 60
70 71
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Murder: Convictions per 100 Arrests
54 5263 57
67 68
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Murder: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests
52 5062 56
64 66
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Murder: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests
8Figure 4, Rape Funnels Based on Incidents, 1998-2006
94,635
21,860
12,310
10,960
8,490
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2004
90,178
23,030
10,600
9,540
7,420
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2000
Source: See AppendixNote: Due to a definition change by the Bureau of Justice Statistics in 1998, we are only able to examine the rape funnels from that year onward. Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
Although the number of rapes reported to police was fairly constant between 1998 and 2006, prison sentences in 2006 were 30% higher than in 1998 and 43% higher than in 2002.
93,144
25,770
11,622
9,762
8,135
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 1998
95,235
23,630
10,980
9,772
7,357
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2002
92,455
20,940
14,720
12,720
10,540
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2006
9
Even with the omission of the incident data, the funnels demonstrate the significant drop-off from arrests to convictions. The considerable thickening of the funnels over time demonstrate a toughening of the criminal justice system’s response to rape.
Figure 5, Rape Funnels Based on Arrests, 1998-2006
21,860
12,310
10,960
8,490
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2004
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
23,630
10,980
9,772
7,357
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2002
20,940
14,720
12,720
10,540
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2006
25,770
11,622
9,762
8,135
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 1998
23,030
10,600
9,540
7,420
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Rape Funnel - 2000
10
Although the proportion of reported rapes that resulted in an arrest dropped during the 8-year period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences all increased considerably.
Figure 6, Rape Ratios, 1998-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
28 26 25 23 23
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Rape: Arrests per 100 Incidents
45 46 4656
70
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Rape: Convictions per 100 Arrests
38 41 4150
61
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Rape: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests
32 32 3139
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Rape: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests
11
Similar to the rape funnels, the robbery funnels demonstrate a significant drop-off from incidents to arrests. Despite this, the bottom three tiers maintain a similar shape, indicating relative system toughness once an arrest has been made.
Figure 7, Robbery Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006
639,271
127,672
47,446
42,701
34,636
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1990
447,186
86,900
38,784
34,130
29,476
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1998
447,403
90,800
41,740
35,620
29,670
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
542,775
112,266
42,305
36,805
32,152
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1986
618,949
117,300
46,028
40,505
35,442
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1994
420,806
81,200
38,430
33,050
27,285
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 2002
12
With the omission of the incident data, it is easier to observe the large drop-off from arrests to convictions. Yet, it is also clear that the vast majority of convictions result in incarceration, and the vast majority of incarceration sentences are to state prison.
Figure 8, Robbery Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006
127,672
47,446
42,701
34,636
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1990
86,900
38,784
34,130
29,476
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1998
90,800
41,740
35,620
29,670
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
112,266
42,305
36,805
32,152
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1986
117,300
46,028
40,505
35,442
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 1994
81,200
38,430
33,050
27,285
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Robbery Funnel - 2002
13
Although the proportion of robberies that resulted in an arrest was fairly constant over the 20-year period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences per arrest all increased, indicating a toughening of the criminal justice system for those arrested for robbery.
Figure 9, Robbery Ratios, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
21 20 19 19 19 20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Robbery: Arrests per 100 Incidents
38 37 39 45 47 46
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Robbery: Convictions per 100 Arrests
33 33 35 39 41 39
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Robbery: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests
29 27 30 34 34 33
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Robbery: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests
14
The individual male and female funnels reflect the gaping gender disparity for the crime of robbery. This male/female comparison demonstrates that women commit far fewer robberies than men (12% vs. 88%), and once arrested are less likely to be convicted or incarcerated.
Figure 10, Robbery Gender Comparison, 2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data. Also, because “Easy Access to FBI Arrest Statistics” does not include gender data for the national estimates, we have estimated gender data using the ratio of reported arrests to the FBI’s estimate of all national arrests, combined with FBI published data on reported adult arrests (see Appendix).
79,932
37,983
32,666
26,968
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Male RobberyFunnel - 2006
10,871
3,757
2,705
1,953
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Female Robbery Funnel - 2006
100%
48%
41%
34%
100%
35%
25%
18%
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Male/Female Robbery Funnel - 2006
MaleFemale
15
Compared to the funnels for other violent crimes, aggravated assault shows a much more dramatic drop-off from incidents and arrests to punishment. Nonetheless, the trend shows a substantial toughening of the system over the 20-year period. With only 3% more aggravated assaults reported by the police in 2006 than in 1986, there were almost three times as many convictions in 2006, and about two and one-half times as many offenders incarcerated and imprisoned.
Figure 11, Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006
1,054,863
399,277
53,861
38,780
24,237
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1990
976,583
434,100
71,060
51,163
32,688
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1998
860,853
387,400
100,560
72,730
43,100
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
834,322
306,040
38,245
27,154
17,210
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1986
1,113,179
462,300
65,174
48,881
31,284
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1994
891,407
410,100
95,600
67,876
40,152
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -2002
16Figure 12, Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006
399,277
53,861
38,780
24,237
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1990
434,100
71,060
51,163
32,688
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1998
Although only a small fraction of arrests for the felony of aggravated assault result in a felony conviction (with many likely leading to a conviction for simple assault, a misdemeanor), the likelihood of a felony conviction increased substantially over the 20-year period.
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
306,040
38,245
27,154
17,210
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1986
462,300
65,174
48,881
31,284
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1994
410,100
95,600
67,876
40,152
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -2002
387,400
100,560
72,730
43,100
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Aggravated Assault Funnel -2006
17Figure 13, Aggravated Assault Ratios, 1986-2006
As these graphs demonstrate, by every measure there has been a considerable toughening of the criminal justice system’s response to the crime of aggravated assault over the 20-year period. Even so, by the end of the period only about one in ten of those arrested for this felony ended up receiving a sentence to state prison.
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
9 10 11 12 17 19
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Aggravated Assault: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests
6 6 7 8 10 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Aggravated Assault: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests
12 13 14 16 23 26
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Aggravated Assault: Convictions per 100 Arrests
37 38 42 44 46 45
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Aggravated Assault: Arrests per 100 Incidents
18
As with the gender comparison for robbery, the funnels for aggravated assault indicate remarkable disparities between male and female criminal behavior (with men responsible for 80% of the arrests) and also the apparent greater leniency of the criminal justice system toward females arrested for aggravated assault.
Figure 14, Aggravated Assault Gender Comparison, 2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data. Also, because “Easy Access to FBI Arrest Statistics” does not include gender data for the national estimates, we have estimated gender data using the ratio of reported arrests to the FBI’s estimate of all national arrests, combined with FBI published data on reported adult arrests (see Appendix).
78,723
14,078
8,588
3,801
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Female Aggravated Assault Funnel - 2006
308,773
86,482
65,726
38,917
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Male Aggravated Assault Funnel - 2006
100%
28%
21%
13%
100%
18%
11%
5%
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Male/Female Aggravated Assault Funnel - 2006
MaleFemale
19
The burglary funnels show a sharp contrast between incidents and punishment, with only a very small fraction of burglaries resulting in a conviction or incarceration sentence. Yet there is also evidence of a toughening of the system over time: while incidents decreased 33% between 1986 and 2006, convictions were down only 3% and incarceration sentences down only 4%.
Figure 15, Burglary Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
3,241,410
288,384
102,683
75,985
54,422
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1986
3,073,909
289,842
109,750
82,313
59,265
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1990
2,712,774
251,000
98,109
73,156
51,976
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1994
2,332,735
214,800
87,957
65,968
47,497
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1998
2,183,746
221,300
99,910
73,040
48,960
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 2006
2,151,252
202,100
100,640
72,461
46,294
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 2002
20
The basic shape of these funnels is fairly consistent, showing no major changes in the treatment of burglary by the criminal justice system during the 20-year period.
Figure 16, Burglary Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
288,384
102,683
75,985
54,422
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1986
289,842
109,750
82,313
59,265
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1990
214,800
87,957
65,968
47,497
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1998
221,300
99,910
73,040
48,960
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 2006
251,000
98,109
73,156
51,976
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 1994
202,100
100,640
72,461
46,294
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Burglary Funnel - 2002
21
Although the likelihood of arrest for burglary remained fairly constant over the 20-year period, convictions and incarcerations per arrest increased significantly, while sentences to state prison increased at a lower rate.
Figure 17, Burglary Ratios, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
9 9 9 9 9 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Burglary: Arrests per 100 Incidents
36 38 39 4150 45
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Burglary: Convictions per 100 Arrests
26 28 29 31 36 33
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Burglary: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests
19 20 21 22 23 22
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Burglary: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests
22
As with the pattern for robbery and aggravated assault, females commit far fewer crimes than men (16% vs. 84%)and once arrested are considerably less likely to be convicted or incarcerated.
Figure 18, Burglary Gender Comparison, 2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data. Also, because “Easy Access to FBI Arrest Statistics” does not include gender data for the national estimates, we have estimated gender data using the ratio of reported arrests to the FBI’s estimate of all national arrests, combined with FBI published data on reported adult arrests (see Appendix).
185,341
89,919
67,439
44,960
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Male Burglary Funnel - 2006
36,091
9,991
7,194
3,897
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Female Burglary Funnel - 2006
100%
49%
36%
24%
100%
28%
20%
11%
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Male/Female Burglary Funnel - 2006
MaleFemale
23
Although there were 24% fewer incidents of murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary reported in 2006 compared to 1986, there were at the end of the period 30% more convictions for these crimes, 27% more incarceration sentences, and 15% more prison sentences. This is powerful evidence of a toughening of the criminal justice system for these five very serious crimes.
Figure 19, Total Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
4,639,120
724,153
193,087
149,306
112,850
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Incidents Funnel -1986
4,791,481
836,562
221,952
174,144
128,052
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Incidents Funnel -1990
4,468,228
849,030
221,318
174,188
130,108
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Incidents Funnel -1994
3,773,478
751,190
206,959
160,053
118,270
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Incidents Funnel -1998
3,479,694
706,240
243,660
181,928
121,912
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Incidents Funnel -2002
3,509,036
711,660
250,880
189,630
129,810
Incidents
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Incidents Funnel -2006
24Figure 20, Total Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
724,153
193,087
149,306
112,850
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Arrests Funnel -1986
836,562
221,952
174,144
128,052
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Arrests Funnel -1990
849,030
221,318
174,188
130,108
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Arrests Funnel -1994
751,190
206,959
160,053
118,270
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Arrests Funnel -1998
706,240
243,660
181,928
121,912
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Arrests Funnel -2002
711,660
250,880
189,630
129,810
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Total Arrests Funnel -2006
Even though arrests for these five serious crimes dropped 16% between the peak year of 1994 and 2006, convictions were up 13% and incarceration sentences were up 9%.
25Figure 21, Total Incidents Ratios, 1986-2006
By each of these measures there has been a significant toughening of the criminal justice system over the 20-year period, with prison sentences increasing at the lowest rate.
Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
16 17 19 20 20 20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Total Incidents: Arrests per100 Incidents
27 27 26 28 35 35
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Total Incidents: Convictions per 100 Arrests
21 21 21 21 26 27
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Total Incidents: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests
16 15 15 16 17 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Total Incidents: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests
26Figure 22, Drug Abuse Funnels Based on Arrests, 1994-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
1,192,000
274,245
170,580
81,177
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Abuse Funnel - 1994
1,352,100
340,330
224,618
132,729
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Abuse Funnel - 2002
1,358,300
314,626
213,946
132,143
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Abuse Funnel - 1998
1,692,700
377,860
247,280
141,780
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Abuse Funnel - 2006
In the twelve years between 1994 and 2006, arrests for drug abuse violations (which include possession, trafficking, sale, man-ufacture, etc.) increased 42%, with convictions increasing 38%, incarceration sentences 45%, and prison sentences 75%.
27Figure 23, Drug Trafficking Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006
Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.
185,423
76,437
48,651
28,151
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Trafficking Funnel -1986
324,235
168,360
129,637
82,496
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Trafficking Funnel -1990
318,607
165,430
116,938
78,762
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Trafficking Funnel -1994
286,899
195,183
138,580
87,832
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Trafficking Funnel -1998
266,465
212,810
144,711
89,380
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Trafficking Funnel -2002
330,700
212,490
142,660
87,870
Arrests
Convictions
Incarceration
Prison
National Drug Trafficking Funnel -2006
Over the 20-year period, arrests for drug trafficking (which includes sale and manufacture) increased 78%, with convictions up 178%, incarceration sentences up 193%, and sentences to prison up 212%.
28The Crime Funnel
Appendix
Incident Data for Figures 1, 4, 7, 11, 15, 19
Data Building Tool for All Years
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics, Customized Table-Building Tool, Estimated Crime in the United States-Total, available at: http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStateby-State.cfm. Accessed April 2014.
Individual Reports
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 1995, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1995/95sec2.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 1998, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1998/98sec2.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2000, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2000. Accessed April 2014.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2002, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2002/02sec2.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program Crime in the United States 2004, available at: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/. Accessed April 2014.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2006, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2006. Accessed April 2014.
Arrest Data for Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1990, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc90.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Data-Building Tool for 1994-2006:
Puzzanchera, C. and Kang, W. (2014) “Easy Access to FBI Arrest Statistics 1994-2012.” Online, available at: http://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezaucr/. Accessed March 2016.
29The Crime Funnel
Appendix Continued
Arrest Data for Figure 23
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fspsc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1990, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc90.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1994, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc94.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1998, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc98.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2002, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc02.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2006, table 29, available at: https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_29.html; Arrest Table, available at: https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/arrests/index.html. Accessed April 2014.
Conviction Data for Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22, 23
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felons Sentenced to State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fspsc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1990, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc90.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1994, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc94.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1998, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc98.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2000, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc00.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2002, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc02.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
30The Crime Funnel
Appendix Continued
Bureau of Justice Statistics, State Court Sentencing of Convicted Felons, 2004 – Statistical Tables, table 1.1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/html/scscf04/tables/scs04101tab.cfm. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006 – Statistical Tables, pg. 3, table 1.1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Incarceration/Prison Data for Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22, 23
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1990, pg. 5, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc90.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1994, pg. 5, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc94.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1998, pg. 6, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc94.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2002, pg. 5, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc02.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006, pg. 5, table 1.2.1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf. Accessed April 2014.
Male/Female Data for Figures 10, 14, 18
Arrests
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States, 2006, Table 33, available at: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_33.html. Accessed April 2014. See also Notes for Figures 10, 14, and 18.
Conviction, Incarceration, and Prison
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006, pg. 17-18, Tables 3.2 and 3.3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf/. Accessed April 2014.
Note: Tables 3.2 and 3.3 list the percentage of men and women convicted and incarcerated. These percentages were used in conjunction with the overall conviction and incarceration numbers from Table 1.2.1 to calculate the male/female breakdown.