the current and future state of the hedge fund industry · 2 hedge fund industry – past cycles of...

62
0 Nicholas S. Hodge, Partner, K&L Gates Joel D. Almquist, Partner, K&L Gates Ronald A. Lake, Lake Partners, Inc. Frederick C. Lake, Lake Partners, Inc. The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry June 30, 2009

Upload: others

Post on 31-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

0

Nicholas S. Hodge, Partner, K&L GatesJoel D. Almquist, Partner, K&L GatesRonald A. Lake, Lake Partners, Inc.Frederick C. Lake, Lake Partners, Inc.

The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry

June 30, 2009

Page 2: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

1

The Hedge Fund Industry

Past Trends, Present Challenges,

Future Outlook

Page 3: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

2

Hedge Fund Industry –Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage

LEVERAGEEXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENTCONCENTRATION

CYCLE 1: 1949 - A. W. Jones 1960's - First "Golden 1969-70 - End of the 1970's - Dark Ages launched Era" "Go-Go"

(Buffet Partners Years launched) 1973-74 - Bear Market

CYCLE 2: 1980's - Second "Golden 1980's - Bull Market 1987 - Black Monday 1990 - Market Correction Era" 1989 - UAL deal (Tiger; Tudor; collapses Odyssey Part- 1989 - RTC created ners launched)

CYCLE 3: 1991-92 - Recovery 1992-93 - Age of the 1994 - Rate Hikes, 1994 - The Year of "Masters of Mexico "Mere Mortals" the Universe" Currency Crisis (The Carry (LTCM launched) Trade; ERM Convergence; Soros vs. Bank of England)

©Lake Partners, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved.

Page 4: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

3

Hedge Fund Industry –Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage

LEVERAGEEXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENTCONCENTRATION

CYCLE 4: 1995-97 - Bull Market 1997- Apex of the "Third 1998 - Russian Default 1998 - The Year of the Golden Era" (LTCM collapses) Margin Calls

CYCLE 5: 1999 - Bull Market 1999 - Bull Market 2000 - Dot.com Bubble 2001-02 - Bear Market continues continues Bursts

CYCLE 6: 2003 - The "Era of 2004-07- Volatility 2008 - Credit Crisis 2009 - Retrenchment Institutionalization" Vanishes The Year of the (Hedge Fund begins (Hedge Fund "Gate" AUM falls to $1.7T)

AUM doubles (Hedge Fund from $1T in '04 AUM peaks at to $2T in '06) $3T)

CYCLE 7: 2009-10? ????? ????? ?????

©Lake Partners, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved.

Page 5: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

4

Hedge Fund Returns – Recent Reversals & Rebounds

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Fund Weighted

Fund Weighted Fund WeightedHedged Equity

Hedged Equity

Hedged Equity

Market Neutral

Market Neutral

Market Neutral Short Bias

Short

Short Bias

Event Driven

Event Driven

Event DrivenMerger Arbitrage

Merger Arbitrage

Macro

Macro

Multi Strat

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets

S&P 500

Convertible Arbitrage

Multi Strat

Convertible Arbitrage

S&P 500

Macro

Merger ArbitrageS&P 500

Convertible

Multi Strat

2008 2009 Through May2007

Source: S&P 500 Index and Hedge Fund Research, Inc.

Page 6: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

5

HFRI Fund Weighted & S&P 12 Month Rolling Returns (1/1/90-5/31/09)

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

HFRI Fund Weighted S&P 500

Credit Crisis

Dot.com BubbleBursts

Russian Default/LTCM Collapse

Rate Hikes/Mexico Crisis

Source: S&P 500 Index and Hedge Fund Research, Inc.

Page 7: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

6

Hedge Funds –Investment Themes & Challenges – 4Q ‘08

Deflation Nation, the “D”Word, and Beyond

Global Contagion is Ragin’

Cash is King

Delever or Die

Ride the Short Side

P/Es? Puhleeeeez!

Gold is Precious; Oil Tanks

Illustration Credit: H. L. Schwadron

Page 8: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

7

Hedge Funds –Investment Themes & Challenges – 2Q ‘09

Reflection Nation, the “I”Word, and beyond

“Green Shoots” Go Global

Cash is Trash

Junk is Jumpin’

Get Shorty

P/Es? Yes, please!

Oil Floats up a Slippery Slope

Illustration Credit: H. L. Schwadron

Page 9: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

8

Hedge Funds –Investment Themes & Challenges – 2010? And Beyond?

Opportunities for Trend Followers

Credit CycleCommodity CycleEconomic CycleLiquidity Cycle

Opportunities for ContrariansCredit CycleCommodity CycleEconomic CycleLiquidity Cycle

Illustration Credit: H. L. Schwadron

Page 10: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

9

Hedge Funds –Investment Themes & Challenges – 2010? And Beyond?

Opportunities for Bottom Up Stock Pickers

Value trendsGrowth trendsUS vs. Non US

Opportunities for ArbitrageM&AConvertiblesFixed Income

Opportunities for Niche StrategiesDistressFinance

Illustration Credit: H. L. Schwadron

Page 11: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

10

Hedge Funds –Investment Themes & Challenges – 2010? And Beyond?

All of the above

None of the above

Risks and potential dislocations

Don’t forget that cycle of leverage/exposure/concentration

Availability of financingSupply of capitalImpact of regulation and market constraints

Illustration Credit: H. L. Schwadron

Page 12: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

11

The Systemic Role of Hedge Funds & the Rationale for Regulation

Who caused the latest Crisis?

Who will get us out of this Crisis?

Who will cause the next Crisis?

• Hedge Funds ????? ????? • Banks ????? ????? • Investment Banks ????? ????? • Broker/Dealers ????? ????? • Subprime Lenders ????? ????? • Finance Companies ????? ????? • Fannie Mae; Freddy Mac ????? ????? • Sovereign Wealth Funds ????? ????? • Rating Agencies ????? ????? • Borrowers ????? ????? • Mutual Funds ????? ????? • All of the above ????? ????? • None of the above ????? ????? • Central Banks ????? ????? • Politicians ????? ????? • Capitalism ????? ?????

©Lake Partners, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved.

Page 13: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

12

The Investment Role of Hedge Funds & Investor Preferences

Investor objectivesStability of returns vs. “Alpha”Tolerance for volatilityDiversification vs. “Beta”

LiquidityRedemption terms – real vs. restrictedUnderlying portfolio constraints – expected vs. unexpected

DisclosureExposures and risk characteristicsPosition details – meaningful vs. intrusive

©Lake Partners, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved.

Page 14: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

13

The Investment Role of Hedge Funds & Investor Preferences

Costs and alignment of interestsManagement feesIncentive feesExpensesTerms

Due DiligenceRegistration; reporting; monitoringConflicts of interestCustody and safeguardsFraud

©Lake Partners, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved.

Page 15: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

14

From Aristocracy to DemocracyThe Democratization of Alternative Strategies

Page 16: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

15

Independence Day: Hedging For The People

• Markets, sponsors and investors drive innovation• Rapid growth in AUM and variety of alternative mutual funds and structures

The Future is Now

• SEC Hedge Fund Routable – 2003• A commissioner leads comments, now an Obama advisor

Seeds of Public Policy

• 1997 repeal of “Short-Short” RuleFirst mutual fund practitioners initiate more hedging

• 1998 creation of first dedicated “Hedged Mutual Funds”Universe of “Hedged Mutual Funds” begins to grow

The Catalyst

A short history of alternative strategies in mutual funds.

Page 17: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

16

Definition Of Hedged Mutual Funds

Building blocks of liquid alternatives.

• In addition to open-end mutual funds:• Registered Closed-end Funds, Exchange Traded Funds or Exchange Traded Notes which may use

long and short positions, hedging, or alternative investment strategies.

Additional Tools

• Long and short position in various securities;• Hedging, including options, futures, derivatives, or similar instruments; (however, this excludes

foreign or global equity or bond funds, long-only by policy, that hedge foreign currencies back into the U.S. dollar);

• Alternative investment strategies, which include commodities or commodities-linked investments; leverage; derivatives; illiquid, private placement, or distressed securities; and investment instruments or techniques not generally correlated to major market indices; (however, this excludes equity or bond funds that are long-only by policy and do not utilize alternative investment strategies or are long-only via derivatives); or

Strategies

• Open-end investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 which implement their underlying portfolios using the strategies or investments below on an ongoing, regular or periodic basis:

Definition: “Hedged Mutual Funds”

Page 18: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

17

Hedged Mutual Funds Vs. Hedge Funds: Kindler, Gentler

Hedged mutual funds provide access to alternative strategies with lower costs, more oversight, and better liquidity and transparency than hedge funds.

Page 19: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

18

Regulatory Safeguards: “Hedged Mutual Funds”

• “Senior Securities” rule (as interpreted)• 3:1 Asset coverage, or full collateral

Limitations on Leverage

• Restrictions on incentive fees• “Qualified Client” Rule• Fulcrum fees as option

Lower Costs

• Requirement for daily, “fair” pricing (FASB 157, etc.)• 15% maximum illiquid securities• Limited use of illiquid securities in face of daily liquidity• Implicit limitations on derivatives

Liquidity & Daily Pricing

• Independent bank custodian required• “Segregated Account” requirement (short sales)• Tri-party agreement

Independent Custody

Page 20: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

19

Alternative Strategies In Mutual Funds

The variety of hedged mutual funds continues to expand.

Multi-Strategy Funds

Futures, Commodities & FX

Long/Short Bonds

Hedged EquityPrincipal Categories of Hedged Mutual Funds

Page 21: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

20

Equity-oriented alternative strategy mutual funds encompass a variety of longs, shorts, leverage and options

Option Income

Deg

ree

of E

xpos

ure:

Hed

ged

to L

ong

(Low

er) L

ong

Exp

osur

e (H

ighe

r)

Option Strategies

Hedged Global Equity Hedged Equity Option Hedging

Long/Short US Equity

Long Bias

Long/Short Global Equity Net 100

Global Equity with Overlays

Equity with Overlays

Sector Hedged

Highly Hedged Global Equity

Highly Hedged Equity

Leve

rage

d Lo

ng

Hedged Equity

Leveraged Index

Leveraged Global Index Leveraged Market Index

Leveraged Sector Index

Hedged Mutual Funds: Equity-oriented

Page 22: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

21

Hedged Equity

Deg

ree

of E

xpos

ure:

Neu

tral

to H

edge

d

Arbi

trage

Statistical Arbitrage

Mar

ket N

eutra

l

Merger/Event Arbitrage

Market Neutral

Global Market Neutral US Market Neutral

Arbitrage

Hedged Mutual Funds: Merger Arb/Market Neutral

Equity oriented absolute return strategies include merger arbitrage and market neutral

Page 23: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

22

Lev. Short Sector Index

Hedged Equity

(Lev

erag

ed) S

hort

(Unl

ever

aged

)

Deg

ree

of E

xpos

ure:

Sho

rt

Discretionary Bear

Defensive

Short Only

Short Equity Index

Short Equity Market Index

Short Sector Index

Leveraged Short Index

Lev. Short Global Equity Lev. Short Index

Hedged Mutual Funds: Short Equity Short equity mutual funds range from “bear” and discretionary short fundsto a variety of leveraged and un-leveraged short index funds.

Page 24: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

23

Long/Short

Long/Short Global BondsConvertible Arbitrage Long/Short US

Bonds

Short Rates

Short Bonds Index

Short Credit

Degree of Exposure

Leveraged Index

Leveraged BondIndex

Absolute Return

Long/Short Bonds

ShortLong/Short Bonds

Leveraged

Hedged Mutual Funds: Long/Short Bonds The variety of long/short fixed income strategies available through mutual funds has recently increased.

Page 25: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

24

Hedged Mutual Funds: Futures, Commodities And Fx

Long/short currency, managed futures and global macro are recententriesin the universe of hedged mutual funds.

Active Active - Passive - ShortShort

Active

Commodity Index MetalsFX & Financials

Short Futures Index

Short Financials

Macro

Futures, Commodities & FX

Managed Futures & FXOverlay

Passive

Short Commodities

Commodities

Short Metals

Page 26: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

25

Alt. Index Sampling

Balanced Hedged US Multi-Asset Hedged

Multi-Alternative Strategy

Multi-Fund

Global Multi-Asset Hedged

Multi-Asset Hedged

Multi-Strategy Funds

Mix: A

lternative/TraditionalAlternative & Traditional

Alternative

Only

Multi-Manager

Hedged Mutual Funds: Multi-strategy

Multi-strategy funds can offer a turnkey approach to assetallocation and alternative strategies.

Page 27: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

26

Growth Of Hedged Mutual Funds

Growth of AUM in Alternative Mutual Funds ($ billion, est.) 1997-2009

$100.0B

$1.3B $2.0B $3.2B $4.7B $5.3B $5.7B$10.1B

$18.6B

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2009

Source: 1997-2004 - Boyson, Agarwal & NaikSource: 2009 - Morningstar/Reuters

Page 28: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

27

Attracting A Growing Variety Of Investors, Managers

Who is driving the current and future marketplace for hedged mutual funds?

• Manufacturers: broaden offering to investors, diversify revenues• Advisors: enhance investor choices and portfolio management flexibility• Managers of alternatives: a liquid tranche for practitioners

Investment Professionals

• DC: diversify the participant menu• DB: more investment options for increasing number of plan fiduciaries• Non-qualified: alternatives with daily pricing

Retirement Plans

• Seeking greater liquidity than private funds • Preference for regulated instruments

Fiduciaries, Foundations, Endowments

• Once exclusive, now broadly available• No longer just for institutions and HNW• “Alternatives for all”… who seek to move beyond limitations of traditional investments

Investors: Individuals, HNW, Family Offices

Page 29: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

28

Opportunity For Investors And ProfessionalsIncreasing choices, flexibility and applications.

• Broader array of strategies and instruments• Absolute vs. relative returns• Complement to traditional assets

Additional sources of potential returns

• Potential lower correlation to traditional assets• Greater variety of performance and risk characteristics• Potentially enhance risk-return profile of diversified portfolio• New portfolio solutions for the “post crisis” era

Enhance diversification

• Hedging as a risk management tool…• To potentially reduce volatility• For potential downside protection

More tools for risk management

• Innovation with investor protection• Widen investment menu with alternatives

Greater Choice

Page 30: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

29

Case Study In Risk Management: Daily VolatilityDaily Returns: LASSO Composite (net) vs. S&P 500Inception of hedged mutual fund portfolio from 12/31/98 through 5/31/09See Explanatory Notes and Disclosures

-10%

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%D

ec-9

8M

ar-9

9Ju

n-99

Sep-

99N

ov-9

9Fe

b-00

May

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr-

01Ju

n-01

Sep-

01D

ec-0

1M

ar-0

2M

ay-0

2Au

g-02

Nov

-02

Jan-

03Ap

r-03

Jul-0

3Se

p-03

Dec

-03

Mar

-04

Jun-

04Au

g-04

Nov

-04

Feb-

05Ap

r-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5D

ec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-06

Aug-

06N

ov-0

6Fe

b-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr-

08Ju

n-08

Sep-

08D

ec-0

8Fe

b-09

May

-09

Ret

urn

S&P 500 LASSO

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Page 31: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

30

Case Study In Risk Management: Monthly Drawdowns

Performance of LASSO composite during the 15 worst months for the S&P 500Inception of LASSO from December 31, 1998 through May 31, 2009See Explanatory Notes and Disclosures

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Ret

urn

LASSO -5.1% -1.8% -4.7% -1.3% -3.6% -2.3% -1.2% -2.5% 0.3% -3.2% -3.0% -3.9% -1.7% -0.9% -0.5% -2.3%

S&P 500 -16.8% -10.9% -10.7% -9.1% -8.9% -8.4% -8.4% -8.1% -7.9% -7.8% -7.2% -7.1% -6.3% -6.3% -6.1% -8.7%

Oct-08 Sep-02 Feb-09 Feb-01 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jun-08 Sep-01 Nov-00 Jul-02 Nov-08 Jun-02 Mar-01 Aug-01 Apr-02 Average

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Page 32: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

31

Hedged Mutual Funds: Flexible Management Of Opportunity

Find and implement opportunities across multiple dimensions in real time.

HedgedMFs

• Implement macro perspectives in a rapidly changing world

Markets: Top Down Analysis of Opportunities and Risks

• Capitalize on changing risk/return potential of alternative strategies

Strategies: Cross-Sectional Scan for Profit Potential

A new research frontier: intensive fundamental research of alternative mutual fund managers

Managers and Funds: Bottom Up Search for Value-Added

Page 33: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

32

Hedged Mutual Funds: Historic Outperformance

“…the first comprehensive examination of a new category of mutual funds.”1

• Naik, Agarwal and Boyson, 2007. “Hedge Funds for Retail Investors? An Examination of Hedged Mutual Funds.” Hedge Fund Centre, London Business School, Working Paper.

“…hedged mutual funds will play an increasingly important role in the field of investment management as they provide access to hedge-fund-like strategies with the fee structure, liquidity, and regulatory requirements of mutual funds.”2

Long-Term Academic Study of Hedged Mutual Funds

Page 34: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

33

Hedged Mutual Funds: Outperformance Via Flexibility

• HMFs have greater flexibility in trading and investment strategies.2

“Thus, HMFs are able to capture alpha on both the long and short side…”2

As a result, HMFs outperform traditional mutual funds “by as much as 4.8% per year” “despite higher fees and turnover.”2

“Strategy Hypothesis” and Findings

Hedged Mutual Funds Overall3

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Range = 2.6% to 4.8%

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Access to new tools can help manager performance.

Page 35: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

34

Hedged Mutual Funds: Historic OutperformanceExperience makes a difference.

• Half of HMF managers in study have prior or concurrent experience managing a hedge fund.2

• “HMF managers with hedge fund experience outperform those without.”2

• Experienced HMF managers outperform other HMF managers by “as much as 4.1% per year net-of-fees”2 and “are persistent winners”.1

“Skill Hypothesis” and Findings

"Experienced" Hedged Mutual Funds3

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Range = 3.3% to 5.6%

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Page 36: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

35

Lasso Cumulative Daily Returns

LASSO Composite (net) vs. MSCI Hedge Invest Index From July 15, 2003 through January 16, 2009 See Explanatory Notes and Disclosures

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jul-0

3

Oct

-03

Jan-

04

Apr-

04

Jul-0

4

Oct

-04

Jan-

05

Apr-

05

Jul-0

5

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr-

06

Jul-0

6

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr-

07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Ret

urn

LASSO MSCI HI

+9.3

LAUNCH:MSCI Hedge Invest

7/15/03

TERMINATION:MSCI Hedge Invest

1/16/09

-5.6%

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Page 37: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

36

Hedged Mutual Funds Vs. Daily Valued Hedge Fund Indices

• HFRX Equity Hedge IndexLaunched 03/31/2003

Daily Valued Hedge Fund Indices: Continuing

• S&P Hedge Fund IndexLaunched 09/30/2002 Terminated due to custodial breakdown, 06/30/2006

• Dow Jones Hedge Fund Balanced IndexLaunched 12/31/2004 Suspended due to leverage and pricing issues (distressed and converts), 10/31/2008

• MSCI Hedge Invest IndexLaunched 07/15/2003 Terminated due to lack of product related revenue, 01/16/2009

• FTSE Hedge Fund IndexLaunched 07/01/2004Terminated due to decline in number of underlying funds, 03/31/2009

Daily Valued Hedge Fund Indices: Discontinued

Darwin revisited: outlasting the benchmarks.

Page 38: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

37

Lasso Cumulative Daily Returns

LASSO Composite (net) vs. HFRX Equity Hedge Index Inception of HFRX Equity Hedge from March 31, 2003 through April 30, 2009 See Explanatory Notes and Disclosures

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Mar

-03

Jun-

03

Sep-

03

Dec

-03

Mar

-04

Jun-

04

Sep-

04

Dec

-04

Mar

-05

Jun-

05

Sep-

05

Dec

-05

Mar

-06

Jun-

06

Sep-

06

Dec

-06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Ret

urn

LASSO HFRX EH

+19.2

LAUNCH:HFRX Equity Hedge

Index 3/31/03 +2.8

Page 39: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

38

A New View Of Liquidity

Liquid Illiquid Liqu

id

Mutual Fund Limited Use In Mutual Fund

Illiquid Hedge Funds:

Risk of "Gate" Hedge FundsDeliv

ery

Stru

ctur

e Portfolio Securities

Match portfolio securities with delivery structure.

Page 40: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

39

Explanatory Notes And Disclosures

LASSO® Long and Short Strategic Opportunities®

Explanatory Notes and Disclosures—Composite Performance of Actual Accounts

The preceding performance is a composite of all discretionary, fee-paying accounts managed by Lake Partners, Inc. utilizing the LASSO Long and Short Strategic Opportunities strategy. Performance is weighted by account size and time-weighted for each performance period, and reflects the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Performance is net of all fees and expenses, including: mutual fund management fees and expenses, portfolio management fees of Lake Partners, Inc., and brokerage, administrative and custodial costs.

All securities investing involves the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There can be no assurance that the LASSO Long and Short Strategic Opportunities program can meet its stated objectives.

Actual results of individual accounts and products utilizing the LASSO strategy will vary due to client cash flows, timing of implementation, different custodians, the availability of underlying mutual funds, regulation and other factors. Small accounts may perform below the composite due to the greater impact of transaction costs.

Performance has been verified for the period from January 1, 1999 (inception) through December 31, 2005 by Eisner LLP. Lake Partners, Inc. prepared and presented performance for this verification in compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). A copy of the verification report is available upon request.

LASSO differs substantially from the market indices, which are included for comparison purposes only.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the common stocks of 500 widely held U.S. companies. It does not include fees or expenses. Direct investment in an index is not possible. (S&P 500 is a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.) LASSO differs substantially from the S&P 500, which is used for comparison purposes as a widely recognized measure of U.S. stock market performance. While the returns of LASSO are somewhat correlated to the index, LASSO through its underlying funds may invest in different stocks and in different proportions than in the index.

The MSCI Hedge Invest Index was designed to be both investable and to reflect the overall structure and composition of the hedge fund universe. The index included funds with weekly liquidity from a wide range of strategies available on a platform administered by an affiliate of Société Generaledesigned to be licensed for tradable investment products. As of December 2008, the index consisted of 119 funds. (The index is a service mark of MSCI Barra.) The index ceased publication in January 2009. LASSO differs substantially from the MSCI Hedge Invest index, which is used for comparison purposes as a daily-valued measure of hedge fund performance. LASSO is comprised of “hedged mutual funds,” a limited universe of mutual funds that use short-selling, hedging and other hedge-fund-like strategies. The index used a sampling from the broad hedge fund universe, which contains more funds and strategies than

Page 41: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

40

Explanatory Notes And Disclosures

available through hedged mutual funds. The index is net of fees and expenses of the underlying managers. The index reflects incentive fees charged by underlying managers, a type of fee generally not charged by the mutual funds in LASSO due to regulatory restrictions. The index does not reflect a “fund-of-funds” management fee, which is reflected in LASSO performance. Direct investment in an index is not possible. Commingled pools based on the index were available to investors, subject to additional fees and expenses.

HFRX Equity Hedge Index (‘HFRXEH”) is part of the HFRX series of hedge fund indices, published by Hedge Fund Research, Inc., which are designed to reflect the daily performance of a variety of hedge fund strategies. The indices include funds that meet the screening criteria of Hedge Fund Research, Inc., including a 24-month track record, $50 million under management, and are open to new investments. The HFRXEH is designed to be both investable and to reflect the overall structure and composition of the equity long/short hedge fund universe. LASSO differs substantially from the HFRXEH, which is used for comparison purposes as a daily-valued measure of hedge fund performance. LASSO is comprised of “hedged mutual funds,” a limited universe of mutual funds that use short-selling, hedging and other hedge-fund-like strategies. In contrast, the HFRXEH uses a sampling from the broad equity long/short hedge fund universe, which contains more funds and strategies than available through hedged mutual funds. In addition, hedge funds in the index may also use a greater degree of leverage and illiquid securities than permitted for mutual funds. Nevertheless, the performance of LASSO and the HFRXEH exhibit a significant level of correlation, reflecting the emphasis of long-short equity strategies in the universe of hedged mutual funds. The index is net of fees and expenses of the underlying managers, including incentive fees, a type of fee generally not charged by the mutual funds in LASSO due to regulatory restrictions. The index does not reflect a “fund-of-funds” management fee, which is reflected in LASSO performance. Direct investment in the index is not possible. Commingled vehicles based on the index are available to investors, subject to additional fees and expenses.

© 2009 by Lake Partners, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 42: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

41

Regulatory Developments

Page 43: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

42

How Might Regulatory Reform Affect You?

Proposals to require hedge fund advisers to register under the Advisers Act

Proposals to require hedge funds themselves to register under the Investment Company Act of 1940

Hedge Fund Transparency Act

Page 44: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

43

What do the Regulators Want?

Ability to impose recordkeeping and reporting requirements on fund advisers and on hedge funds themselves, so that the regulators can assess whether a particular fund poses systemic risks.

Page 45: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

44

Risk of a Hedge Fund’s Classification as a “Tier 1 FHC”

Entities that pose a threat to financial stability due to their size, leverage and interconnectedness may be deemed “Tier 1 FHCs.” As such, they would be regulated by the Federal Reserve Bank and subjected to Bank Holding Company regulation.

Classification as a Tier I FHC would likely be disastrous for any hedge fund.

Page 46: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

45

Proposed Regulation of Short Selling

Proposal to reinstate the uptick rule

The abolition of the uptick rule two years ago has been followed by severe market volatility, but opinions differ as to whether there was a causal relationship

SEC has proposed two variations on the old uptick rule and three variations on a circuit breaker rule.

Page 47: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

46

Proposed Regulation of the Derivatives Markets

Hedge funds may be subject to new prudential supervision and regulation because their use of derivatives may create large exposures to counterparties.

Proposal by the White House to bring OTC derivatives under a comprehensive regulatory regime for the first time to contain systemic risks.

Require clearing of all standardized OTC derivatives through regulated central counterparties.

Subject all OTC derivatives dealers to prudential supervision and regulation.

Page 48: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

47

Proposed Amendments to the Custody Rule

Registered advisers would be required to undergo an annual surprise examination by an independent public accountant.

If an affiliate of the adviser serves as custodian of the assets of the adviser’s clients, an independent accountant would be required to render an opinion about the custodian’s controls.

Or the SEC may simply require advisers to custody assets with independent custodians.

Page 49: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

48

New OCIE Initiatives

OCIE examiners will receive enhanced training in order better to detect fraud and understand complex financial products.

OCIE will request more information from advisers before arriving on site so that the examiners can better assess the risk profile of the adviser.

Page 50: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

49

OCIE Red Flags

Use of affiliate for custodyNo independent auditAudit by obscure firmDire financial condition of the adviser or its principalsAggressive self-promotionUnusual activity in intercompany accountsOverlap between registered and unregistered entities creates possibility of concealing fraudulent activity in the unregistered entity

Page 51: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

50

Enforcement Activity

22 enforcement actions against hedge funds in 2008

Dramatic increase over prior years

Page 52: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

51

Enforcement Priorities

Rumor mongering

Insider trading

Portfolio pumping

Allocation

Valuation

Page 53: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

52

New Opportunities – TALF Funds

Funds designed to invest in portfolios of securities that are eligible for and utilize term financing under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.

Page 54: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

53

International Developments

EU’s proposed Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive would subject hedge fund managers operating or domiciled in the EU to new regulations and reporting requirements

Dubai’s regulatory regime for hedge funds, based on British common law, comports with international standards and has significant tax advantages

China has abstained from introducing new regulations on hedge funds

Page 55: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

54

Precautions in Dealing with Counterparties

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and other institutions has highlighted the need for hedge funds to take precautions against counterparty risk

Fund managers can manage their exposure by addressing risks associated with:

Providers of derivatives;Prime brokerage relationships; andInsolvency of counterparties

Page 56: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

55

Tax Developments

Page 57: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

56

Change in Tax Treatment of Carried Interest

Carried interestGP receives right to incentive allocation because of services to be provided to fundCharacter of fund’s income and gain flows through to GP and its members even though related to servicesAdministration budget proposal would treat all allocations with respect to “services partnership interest”– which would include the GP’s interest in a fund – as ordinary compensation incomePrior versions of legislation had only applied to investment management partnerships – primarily, funds

Page 58: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

57

FBAR

Change in TD F 90-22.1 Instructions for 2008 filings due June 30, 2009

Expanded definitions of “Financial Account,” “Signature Authority,” United States Person”Voluntary Disclosure Program for Past Years May 6 FAQsProgram expanded on June 24 to allow 2008 FBARs to be filed by September 23, 2009 -- with conditionsAdministration budget proposals would beef up offshore account reporting rules and penalties

Page 59: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

58

Other Administration Proposals

Stop use of swaps to avoid dividend withholding

Require ordinary income treatment for dealers of equity options and commodities

Change business entity classification rules for certain foreign entities

Eliminate capital gain tax on investments in certain small business stock

Page 60: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

59

Loss of Offshore Fee Deferral

Possible use of FMV Equity Options to provide deferral

Adjustments to Recent Developments

Page 61: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

60

Exemption for “investment partnerships”

Form PTE-EX

Massachusetts Withholding

Page 62: The Current and Future State of the Hedge Fund Industry · 2 Hedge Fund Industry – Past Cycles of Renaissance & Wreckage LEVERAGE EXPOSURE CONTROLLED EXPANDING EXCESSIVE RETRENCHMENT

61

Presenter Contact Information

Nicholas S. HodgeTel: 617.261.3210 [email protected]

Joel D. AlmquistTel: 617.261.3104 [email protected]

Ronald A. LakeTel: [email protected]

Frederick C. LakeTel: [email protected]